Relievers. Who are they? What do they do? Until one bright spring day in 1993, nobody knew the answers to these simple questions. Then, MLB scientists made a breakthrough in their labs in the bowels of the Astrodome, and Mariano Rivera sprung forth from his mother’s womb fully formed and sawed off Jason Giambi. But the question they couldn’t answer is ‘what is the best season ever by a reliever?’. At the time, the technology was simply not expansive enough to begin delving into this question. Now, thanks to huge leaps in science, we can finally answer something that has plagued the minds of man since the dawn of humanity.
Now, clearly, the answer is Francisco Rodriguez, since he’s the single season save leader and that’s the best stat to measure relievers by. But let’s ignore that.
You can just look up which reliever has the most WAR in a single season, which is 1975 Goose Gossage by bWAR (8.2!?!?!) or 1977 Bruce Sutter by fWAR (5.2). The reason for this difference is because BaseballReference uses runs allowed to calculate bWAR, and FanGraphs uses FIP to calculate fWAR. Since relievers pitch such small sample sizes, there’s often a large gap between their FIP and their runs allowed (RA). Since we’re looking at the best season, and not the best player, I’m going to use bWAR (and thus RA) for this exercise.
(If you don’t know what FIP is, it stands for Fielding Independent Pitching, which looks at only the outcomes of at-bats which are solely between the pitcher and the batter - home runs, walks, and strikeouts. These stats are thrown together and then given a normalizing factor so that the average league FIP matches the average league ERA. FIP is a wonderful predictive tool, to the point where it is more predictive of a pitcher’s ERA next year than a pitcher’s ERA is. I’d rather not use it here because it doesn’t look at the actual results - if I was trying to find the best reliever, and not the best season, then I’d use FIP.)
Using a simple value added stat is incredibly biased towards 1970’s middle relievers who would throw 100+ innings in a year, though. WAR is a counting stat, so the more they pitch, the more they rack up. What about bWAIP? One BBRef search later, and I have this table.

Player	bWAR	bWA100IP	IP	Year	Tm
Ted Abernathy	6.2	5.84	106.1	1967	CIN
Steve Mingori	3.3	5.87	56.2	1971	CLE
Michael Jackson	3.8	5.94	64.0	1998	CLE
Bruce Sutter	6.5	6.07	107.1	1977	CHC
Jose Mesa	3.9	6.09	64.0	1995	CLE
Zack Britton	4.1	6.11	67.0	2016	BAL
Mariano Rivera	4.3	6.13	70.2	2008	NYY
John Hiller	7.9	6.31	125.1	1973	DET
Terry Fox	3.7	6.38	58.0	1962	DET
Jonathan Papelbon	5.0	7.34	68.1	2006	BOS

This is the top 10 relief seasons by bWA100IP, minimum 45 IP. This is a fairly tight pack all the way up until the final entry, where Papelbon’s 2006 leads by near 1bWA100IP. This seems like a good candidate for the best relief year ever.
(Interestingly enough, Bill James’ list of the 100 best reliever seasons ever, written in 2007, doesn’t include Jonathan Papelbon’s 2006 season. Joe Nathan’s 2006, where Nathan pitched the same number of innings and had a much worse ERA, made the list at #27. This is a reminder that Bill James is a fallible human being.)
So, if your criteria for best year by a reliever is bWA100IP, then the best option, by far, is Jonathan Papelbon. But before we look at the other options, here’s why Papelbon’s season was the best.
There have been nine reliever seasons (min. 40 IP) with a lower ERA than Papelbon’s 2006 0.92. Why aren’t they higher in bWAIP?

Player	WAR	IP	ERA	Year	Tm	R	ER
Zack Britton	4.1	67.0	0.54	2016	BAL	7	4
Joey Devine	1.9	45.2	0.59	2008	OAK	7	3
Fernando Rodney	3.7	74.2	0.60	2012	TBR	9	5
Dennis Eckersley	3.3	73.1	0.61	1990	OAK	9	5
Rob Murphy	2.5	50.1	0.72	1986	CIN	4	4
Rich Gossage	2.3	46.2	0.77	1981	NYY	6	4
Blake Treinen	4.1	80.1	0.78	2018	OAK	12	7
Bill Henry	2.5	52.0	0.87	1964	CIN	9	5
Dennys Reyes	2.2	50.2	0.89	2006	MIN	8	5
Jonathan Papelbon	5.0	68.1	0.92	2006	BOS	8	7

To begin with, bWAR uses RA for its calculations, which uses both earned and unearned runs. Dennys Reyes, Bill Henry, Blake Treinen, Rich Gossage, Fernando Rodney, Dennis Eckersley, and Joey Devine all had more RA/IP in their respective seasons. (The difference between their ERA and their bWAIP isn’t solely explained by this, but it’s good enough for now. We’ll get to that in a moment). This leaves 1986 Rob Murphy and 2016 Zach Britton. Why don’t they stack up?
The answer is a little thing I’d like to call ‘run environment’, which is encapsulated by BaseballReference’s stat RA9Avg. It takes what an average pitcher’s run allowed/9 innings (RA/9) was that year, and then adjusts it for park factors, for the defense, and for who that specific pitcher faced. If a pitcher had a relatively high run environment, it means he would be pitching in batter’s parks, faced tough opponents, had a bad defense behind him, etc. For a perfectly average pitcher, their RA/9 will match their run environment.
For Murphy, his run environment was 4.11. For Britton, it was 4.32. For Papelbon, it was a whopping 5.00. This makes a huge difference - Papelbon may have gotten slightly worse results, but he was starting from a much more difficult positions.
For another good way to illuminate the differences run environments can cause, I can bring up one of my favorite WAR comparisons! In 1965, Jim Maloney equalled Sandy Koufax in bWAR (and surpassed him if you count batting WAR) despite throwing 80 fewer innings with an ERA 0.50 higher. How did he do this? Simple. Sandy Koufax played in cavernous Dodger Stadium with a strong Dodger defense behind him, and so had a run environment of 3.49 RA/9. Jim Maloney, pitching at batter-friendly Crosley Stadium with a poor Reds defense behind him, had a run environment of 4.34, 0.85 more than Koufax. Since Maloney is expected to give up far more runs than Koufax and only gives up somewhat more runs, he has a large bWAIP lead.
Run environment is 99% of the explanation behind ‘why does WAR give this weird result?’ questions.
Most of the best reliever seasons by ERA have relatively a low run environment - after all, good defense and a friendly park factor really helps a reliever keep the runs down. Fernando Rodney had a run environment of 3.72 in his 0.60 ERA season, because he pitched at the Tropicana and had the Rays defense behind him. Mariano Rivera consistently had a high run environment (career average of 4.72) due to pitching in Yankee Stadium with horrible, horrible, horrible Yankees defenses behind him going against tough AL East opponents. He never had that ‘lucky’ season with a sub-1 ERA, which would likely have put him on this list. He has to live with the stigma of simply being the greatest reliever of all time, unfortunately. Papelbon had an incredible season in a run environment that was incredibly ill-suited for having an incredible season, so his bWAIP is leaps and bounds ahead of anyone else.
So is Jonathan Papelbon’s 2006 the greatest single season by a reliever ever? Well, maybe. Pound-for-pound, it certainly is. But some relievers can pound more often than others, even if they're not pounding quite as hard. Should 70’s and 80’s relievers be penalized for being slightly worse in twice as many innings as Papelbon? John Hiller’s 1973 is a good candidate if you prefer quantity over quality - 7.9 bWAR in 125 innings in relief. Of course, you can flip it around - why penalize Papelbon for pitching less when relievers of that era were expected to pitch less? With the bWAIP, it’s safe to say Papelbon was more dominant in his role than Hiller was in his.
Are there arguments for other pitchers and other seasons? Absolutely. Perhaps you prefer FIP for some reason - then you can probably give the nod to 2003 Eric Gagne, with 4.7 fWAR in 82 innings. I don’t think FIP works well for this type of analysis, because it doesn’t deal with actual results, but you do you. Perhaps you want to dive into BABIP and pick a season that wasn't as lucky - this seems like a fool's errand, since the best reliever seasons are all lucky ones.
Of course, if you believe the best ability is availability, the nod goes to Mike Marshall, who appeared in 106 (!?!) games for the 1974 Dodgers. His 2.42 ERA is tarnished somewhat by the 3.33 run environment at Dodger Stadium at the time, however. Marshall apparently still has very interesting ideas on training to be able to pitch that many innings, but no MLB training staff will let him near their pitchers for some reason.
Now, I know we’d all like someone else to have the best relief season ever in baseball - someone who didn’t attack teammates, someone who didn’t watch porn in the clubhouse, someone who doesn’t hit Manny Macha - ok, I’m fine with that one. But why couldn’t it have been someone like Eric Gagne, or Robb Nen, or Heathcliff Slocumb? I don’t think I’ve ever heard anything negative about those guys. Maybe it’s just time to move on, and let bygones be bygones.
As I understand, Papelbon is just 24 hours from picking a new team, so it’ll be exciting to see him back in the league. Hopefully, he doesn’t choke his comeback.

State of baseball scorebug designs (As of Feb 11, 2021) - A more detailed writeup

How much (negative) WAR would I accrue playing on a Major League team for a full season?

I heard Sam Miller mention on a recent episode of Effectively Wild that you have to figure the WAR of a civilian would be considerably less than zero, possibly up to negative 20.
Let's do the math.
We'll assume a few things before we start. I am mandated by law to play every inning of every game. I am me, an overweight 30-year-old. This thought experiment doesn't put me on a specific team, just a general baseball season.
WAR is composed of six parts. Batting, fielding, baserunning, positional adjustment, league adjustment, and replacement level. I'm going to skip league adjustment because it requires me to do calculations for the whole league and it doesn't really change the player's final WAR that much. We'll assign values to these from simplest to hardest.

Fielding

I will not be allowed to take the field. This is simple. 0 runs.

Positional Adjustment

As I won't be taking the field, I'd be relegated the the Designated Hitter position. The positional adjustment for 162 games of DH is -17.5 runs.

Replacement Level

The formula for replacement level runs is Replacement Level Runs = (570 x (MLB Games/2,430)) x (Runs Per Win/lgPA) x PA
If I play 162 games and bat 9th (because duh) I figure I'd get ~600 PA. I came to this conclusion thusly: The two players with the most PA in 2019 were Marcus Semien with 747 and Whit Merrifield with 735. They were both leadoff hitters who played 162 games. So if I average that number, a leadoff hitter would get ~741 PA over the course of the season if he plays every game. The difference between a full season of a leadoff hitter and a number 9 hitter is 1 PA per game minus 1 PA every 9 games. This is because the leadoff hitter will always have one more PA than the number 9 hitter at the end of a game, unless the number 9 hitter wat the last batter to come up in the game. This would happen roughly once every nine games. So 741-(162-(162/9))= 597 PA. So let's do the calculation based on that. (We'll use 2019 numbers.) (570x(2430/2430))x(10.296/186516)x600= 18.9. This brings me up to 1.4 runs.

Batting

In response to a Chris Hayes tweet musing on whether or not he'd get a hit against a full season of Major League pitching, Eno Sarris wrote an article for Fangraphs discussing the idea. He concludes that Hayes would get about 2 hits in a season. If we assume I'm roughly at the level of Hayes (he's ten years older than me, but seems to be in better shape), I'm going to say nah. If they pitch to me like a regular Major Leaguer, there is no way in hell I would make contact, let alone get a hit. However, they will quickly realize they don't have to pitch to me like a Major Leaguer. This will change two things, to varying degrees, depending on how far they go with it. The first is whether or not I actually end up getting a hit. If I'm pitched somewhere around 70 MPH with few breaking pitches, I'm sure I'd get a couple of hits. However, I doubt this would happen, for a couple of reasons. This brings me to the second thing, walks. If I were pitched to as a big leaguer, I'd get on base via walks. It wouldn't be close to Major League average, as my eye is not close to Major League average, but at the same time I have much less incentive to swing, so I'd probably be doing that less. Which brings us back to pitchers throwing softer in order to avoid walks.
First, let's analyze how that works in real baseball. I think that while taking something off your fastball does improve a pitcher's control, it hits diminishing returns quite quickly. My reasoning for this is twofold. First, pitchers are conditioned to throw the way they throw. Slowing down too much changes everything. It messed with their mechanics in ways that wouldn't necessarily be positive. The second point is that throwing a ball from 60 feet six inches away into a box roughly 500 inches square is really hard, even for a Major League pitcher.
Take 2019 for example. In 2019, non-pitchers batted .256. Pitchers, on the other hand, batted exactly half that, .128. As a result of pitchers being that much worse at hitting, the average fastball thrown to them was 92.4 MPH, as opposed to 93.2 MPH thrown to non-pitchers. While their walk rates were only 3.1%, well below the non-pitcher rate of 8.7%, I believe this is due mostly to pitchers' ineptitude at taking walks. This is because the drop in velocity only improved their Zone% from 41.6% to 49.9%. Not an insignificant difference, but still really close in context. You'd think pitchers would take off even more than the less than 1 MPH they do when throwing to pitchers, all it does is improve Zone% by 8.3%, but they don't.
So let's assume the average fastball I see is 89 MPH. I still have a hard time believing I'd get a hit on one of the slower pitches in that range. If all I saw was the lower bounds of this range over the course of a full season, sure. But that wouldn't be the case. I'd be seeing very few of those lower bounds pitches, not to mention a nice amount of breaking balls to keep me honest. I'm going to stick with 0 hits. I'm going walk rate will probably be somewhere around pitchers' walk rates. Again, my guessing pitches would be abysmal, but if I'm smart, I'd swing as little as possible. Working the count won't be a thing, and I probably won't be able to stick to my 'swing as little as possible' rule as well as I'd like, so 3% seems reasonable. 3% of 600 PA is 18 walks.
That gets me to a .000/.030/.000 slash line. Yeah, that looks about right.
The first thing we have to do to determine my batting runs is calculate my wOBA. Using 2019 numbers, that would be (18^{^walks} x.69^{^walk} ^{^constant} +0^{^didn't} ^{^do} ^{^anything} ^{^else} )/600^{^PA} =.021 wOBA
We then determine wRAA ((.021^{^wOBA} -.320^{^lg} ^{^wOBA} )/1.157^{^wOBA} ^{^Scale} )x600^{^PA} = -155.2 wRAA
There is a further adjustment based on league, but since I won't be putting myself on any specific team, I don't need to do this part.
-153.8 runs

Baserunning

Well the good news is that I'd only get on base 18 times. Simulating baserunning stats isn't exactly easy. Luckily, I noticed that players' sprint speeds are fairly strongly correlated with their BSR. When I put all the 2019 sprint speeds and BSR into excel, the conversion equation it gives me is (Sprint Speed x 0.0086-0.2348)=BSTimes on Base
Great. So now all there is to figure out is my sprint speed. I asked my wife to clock me running down the block at full speed, but she didn't seem so jazzed about the idea. Well if you want something done, you gotta do it yourself. Before I get into the numbers, bear in mind I was running down a 40 ft driveway with a flip phone in my hand, only gave myself about 5 feet to get to full speed, pressed the button at the starting point, probably started slowing down early, and then pressed it again at the ending point. Science.
I clocked myself at 2.08 seconds. I measured out the distance and it came out to 485 inches. Which is 233.2 in/sec. Convert that to feet, and I was running at 19.4 ft/sec. Which was below Brian McCann's 2019 league minimum speed of 22.2 ft/sec, but not so far off that it would make me think I did something wrong. Good enough for me. So if we plug my 19.4 ft/sec into the equation, we get -0.07 BSR per times on base. I expect to get on base 18 times, so it comes out to a -1.2 BSR for the season.
-155 runs.

Conclusion

Finally, the last step is to convert runs to wins. The 2019 Runs/Win number was 10.296. So if I divide -155 by 10.296 I end up with -15.1 WAR. Yikes. Let's put that in context. According to Fangraphs, I would cancel out any season of any great player if we were on the same team and then some. 1923 Ruth? Gone. 2002 Bonds? We would net -2.4 WAR. 2013 Trout? Not even close. If I were were to replace Edgar Martinez on the 2001 Mariners, the winningest team in modern history, they'd only win 96 games, but hey, we'd still make the playoffs! Same with the 1998 Yankees. And this is the conclusion we should come out with. I would not necessarily ruin the greatest teams of all time. So I deserve a shot.
TL;DR -15.1 WAR, but I deserve a shot.

How much WAR would a perfect (yet shy) leadoff man accrue in a Major League season?

This is part 3 of my "How much WAR would ________ get?" series. You can find How much (negative) WAR would I accrue playing on a Major League team for a full season? here and How much (negative) WAR would a potato accrue playing centerfield for a Major League team for a full season? here.

That's right, boys and girls. We're back with a new conundrum. Let me set the stage. Speedy McHitterson has been discovered to be a perfect leadoff hitter. He makes every play in center, he steals second at every opportunity, he has a perfect eye, and when he's thrown a strike, he gets a hit every time. However, he's incredibly shy and afraid to overstep his bounds. This means he'll never swing at a pitch outside the zone, even if he knows he can hit it. He also will never go past first base on a hit, so every his is a single. Speedy is afraid of stepping on teammates toes, literally and figuratively, so he won't make any plays in the field that weren't meant for him. He's also fearful of being perceived as too overconfident, so stealing third is out of the question, let alone stealing home. But for the things he does do, he has a 100% success rate.
To the categories!

Positional Adjustment

Speedy, like Tate, will be manning center for a full season. 162 games of CF is worth 2.5 runs.

Replacement Level

As previously established, the average leadoff hitter would have ~761 PA per 162 games. But Speedy is no average leadoff hitter. Speedy will have a 1.000 OBP. Meaning compared to the average 255 on-base events for an average leadoff man, Speedy will have 761, which is an extra 506. Following the logic from last time, getting on base an extra 506 times will result in another 56 PA (If one out of every nine extra on-base events result in an extra PA). Which, in turn, will result in an extra 4 PA (I think). So in the end of the day, Speedy will end up with 821 PA on the season.
So if Replacement Level Runs = (570 x (MLB Games/2,430)) x (Runs Per Win/lgPA) x PA then 821 PA will be (570x(2430/2430))x(10.296/186516)x821 coming out to 25.8 Runs.
28.3 Runs

Fielding

This one, it turns out, is quite simple. Similar to how we determined a potato's fielding runs, we compare this perfect player to the 2020 Cincinnati Reds centerfielders. To recap, in 2020, 227 balls were fielded by Reds center fielders. 86 of them went for singles, 22 went for doubles, 3 went for triples. There were no inside-the-park home runs. There were 109 catches made, plus 7 sac flies. This gives opponents a .490 wOBA on balls hit to Reds center fielders. Speedy, being perfect, would allow a 0 wOBA (his middle name is Fielder). Home run robberies are out of the question because, you know. So we'll compare them the same way we did last time, with the same formula we use to determine batting runs batting runs. First we determine the amount of opportunities a center fielder would get in a full season. In 2019, center fielders made 20962 plays. That's about 700 per team over a full season. So the calculation would go thusly:
((.000^{^wOBA} -.490^{^lg} ^{^wOBA} )/1.1857^{^wOBA} ^{^Scale} )x700^{^{Opportunities}} = 289.3 runs
I just realized something really cool. I actually calculated Tater to have this precise number of negative runs, because his wOBA allowed would be exactly double the average. This means if Speedy and Tate were to alternate games, they would average to a league average fielder.
317.6 Runs

Batting

We've already established a few facts. Speedy McHitterson will get about 821 PA in a season. He does not swing at balls outside the strikezone. He hits every ball in the strikezone for a single. This would result in a 1.000/1.000/1.000 slash line, but we would still need to determine how many walks and hits he'd get. So I put together a little table to figure that out.

Count	Frequency	Zone	Out of Zone	Strike odds	Ball odds	Strike overall odds	Ball overall odds
0-0	1.000	95745	89033	.518	.482	.518	.482
0-1	.518	39460	53598	.424	.576	.220	.298
0-2	.220	14985	33022	.312	.688	.069	.151
1-0	.482	37702	33833	.527	.473	.254	.228
1-1	.552	35402	38838	.477	.523	.263	.289
1-2	.415	25414	44600	.363	.637	.150	.264
2-0	.228	13872	10640	.566	.434	.129	.099
2-1	.418	21098	17739	.543	.457	.227	.191
2-2	.491	37457	33526	.528	.472	.259	.232
3-0	.099	4573	2930	.609	.391	.060	.039
3-1	.251	9652	6289	.605	.395	.152	.099
3-2	.384	21163	16146	.567	.433	.218	.166

So to explain: the "Frequency" column is the overall frequency of the count, assuming no swings (which is important, as I'll explain in a second). This was determined by the following columns. "Zone" is pitches in the strikezone on that count. "Out of zone" is pitches outside the strikezone on that count. The next two columns are the percentages of a ball/strike in each count. Knowing that, we can tell the frequency of each count, if the batter never swung. 0-1 is going to be the odds of a strike on 0-0. 0-2 is going to be the odds of a strike on 0-1, times the odds of 0-1 occurring in the first place. 1-1 is the overall odds of a ball on 0-1 plus the overall odds of a strike on 1-0. We can use this chart to work out the number of walks of Mr. McHitterson. If he swings at every ball in the zone, and they all go for hits, the only way for him to get walked is if he's thrown four straight balls. According to this chart, that only happens 3.9% of the time, which we can now use as his walk rate. A 3.9% walk rate with 821 PA comes out to 32 walks in a season. Which leaves him with 789 hits, all for singles. Let's plug that into our wOBA formula. (32^{^walks} x.69^{^walk} ^{^constant} +789^{^singles} x.870 ^{^single} ^{^constant} )/821^{^PA} =.863 wOBA
And from wOBA to wRAA: ((.863^{^wOBA} -.320^{^lg} ^{^wOBA} )/1.157^{^wOBA} ^{^Scale} )x821^{^PA} = 385.3 wRAA
702.9 Runs

Baserunning

To start, we give Speedy the same boost we gave Tate for never hitting into a double play. Over 821 PA, that comes up to 5.9 Runs. But the real value will come from stealing bases. To refresh, Speedy will steal second every time it's available. Afraid of looking like he's showing off, he will never attempt a double steal or a steal of third or home. We'll make the assumption that overall, the situations he's on base (always) will look like the league averages of occupied bases. There were 55998 plate appearances with men on first in 2019. Of those, 34240 (61%) were just a man on first. 12347 (22%) were first and second. 5026 (9%) were first and third. 4385 (8%) were bases loaded. This means that in 70% of situations with a man on first, second base was open. With a SB rate of 100% of the 70% of times on base (which is identical to the number of PAs) McHitterson had, this puts him at 575 steals for the season (that would be a record, by the way). Fangraphs gives .2 Runs per SB. This adds 115 Runs to our count, which comes out to a total of 121.8 baserunning runs. 824.7 Runs

Conclusion

824.7 is a lot of runs. If we do the 10.296 Runs/Win conversion it comes out to 80.1 WAR. As I said, that's a loooooooot. [Speedy could split time with Tate and they'd still combine for 32.5 WAR. It would take over five Taters to cancel out a Speedy.] EDIT: In my excitement, I accidentally confused myself with a potato. I'm the one who'd combine for 32.5 WAR. I'm the one who would need to be cloned five times to cancel out a Speedy. Tate and Speedy would actually combine to have a 17.6 WAR, which is still better than the best single-season WAR of all time. Two Taters would more than cancel out a Speedy. If you put Speedy on a team that literally did nothing else, he'd still make them roughly a .500 team.
TL;DR 80.1 WAR - Holy Fuck
Coming soon.....If Shohei Ohtani were actually Superman, how much WAR would he get?

Niv from Ottoneu Fantasy Baseball AMA

Reds' Optimism Time: Expected Stats (xStats) from Statcast! (TL;DR: Reds' xStats gooood)

So, I have been told that I am a font of optimism in this sub (which I promise isn't even intentional), so I would feel icky if I didn't provide some of that optimism during these dreary days. This morning, without even looking for anything in particular, I found some pretty strong reasons for optimism when perusing Baseball Savant (MLB's user-friendly treasure chest of Statcast data).
We have lamented the Reds' BABIP since what seems like the first week of August, and that's a valid lament. However, BABIP isn't exactly created equal across all situations. Flyballs generally have a pretty low BABIP, as flyballs are often quite easy for fielders to get to (and HRs don't count as balls-in-play); grounders have a higher BABIP than flyballs; and liners have far and away the highest BABIP (for obvious reasons). That led to me checking Savant for information more or less regarding just how unlucky the certainly unlucky 2020 Reds batters were. While Statcast does not, to my knowledge, produce an expected BABIP stat, it does produce stats such as expected batting average (xBA), expected slugging (xSLG), expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA), and xwOBA on contact (xwOBACON).
For those who aren't aware, basically what these stats are is that Statcast analyzes the position of the fielders, the exit velocity of the ball off the bat, the launch angle, and the park that the game is played in. Using this info, it calculates -- on mountains of empirical evidence that makes these stats pretty reliable -- the expected outcomes of every batted ball. Thus, I referenced these stats to see what hypothetically should have happened for the 2020 Reds.
Below are the Reds' actual team-wide offensive outcomes by league rank:
- BA: 30th
- SLG: 18th
- wOBA: 17th
-wOBACON: 21st
(and of course a distant 30th in BABIP)
Now, looking at the Reds' expected outcomes in those stats, we see a picture that is a bit rosier (although still not perfect):
- xBA: 27th
- xSLG: 12th
- xwOBA: t-10th
- xwOBACON: 12th
Basically, these stats confirmed that the Reds were legitimately very unlucky in 2020 and, in expectation were an above-average offense. Also, for those unaware, wOBA is the driving factor behind wRC+ (where it is normalized by park factors and league averages). So if you prefer wRC+, just know that results of wOBA should map to wRC+ pretty well, albeit not perfectly.
Now, additional optimism comes from the fact that the Reds' expected offensive stats look above-average already, and we must consider all of these confounding factors at play:
- Nick Senzel getting COVID and being awesome pre-COVID but the worst hitter in the league post-COVID
- Shogo taking half the shortened season to adjust
- Moose being on and off the field with COVID concerns and injury
- Suarez recovering from shoulder surgery
- Starting an overmatched Jose Garcia for about a third of the year (although I realize that this situation isn't exactly remedied at the moment...sigh)
So, while things aren't going to work perfectly (they never do), I think a lot of those issues from 2020 should be remedied in the 2021 season, and we're already working with a framework of above-average expected stats. Standard projection systems (which are pretty low on the Reds) don't really reflect expected stats -- which, again, are based on mountains of empirical data, not some mumbo-jumbo -- so it makes sense that the Reds' terrible luck last year nerfed their projections. Big things could potentially be in store for the Reds' offense in 2021 (and if you play fantasy baseball, I urge you to buy low on a bunch of Reds hitters).
But wait, THERE'S MORE!
We all know the Reds' pitching was beyond awesome in 2020. But for all the bad luck that the Reds' hitters had, did the Reds' pitchers get carried by any luck? Hmm, let's check the xStats again:
- xBA: 1st
- xSLG: 1st
- xwOBA: 1st
- xwOBACON: 2nd
And the actual outcomes:
- BA: 2nd
- SLG: 3rd
- wOBA: 4th
- wOBACON: 12th
So, to answer that question of if the Reds' pitchers got lucky...the answer is actually no! By pretty much every expected measure, the Reds had the best pitching in all of baseball last year, and they actually got unlucky (although admittedly only marginally).
Now, I know the elephant in the room is that the Reds lost Trevor Bauer -- a modern-day Hercules of xStats -- and Raisel Iglesias (Disco weighed them down in these metrics, and Archie's sample wasn't meaningful). However, it is very clear that the Reds' pitching was legitimately elite last year, and they had some room to give (and I would point out that specifically when referring to xStats, Disco offsets some of Bauer's greatness).
I know we're all very upset with how the offseason has played out, but we shouldn't lose sight of the fact that even though the Reds were "only" 31-29 last year, they were significantly better in expectation. I'm not going to tell people how to feel, but I just wanted to provide real reasons for optimism.
Now, I wouldn't take this and say "oh the Reds should be the favorites in the NLC" (I would personally give that title to the Brewers, but it's tight). It's just that the actual results we saw last year paled in comparison to what should have been, so there's a lot more upside with this Reds team than traditional projection systems would tell you.
Sorry for the long read and the gross optimism, but let's go Reds!

I love Trea Turner and you should too: a brief history and analysis on baseball's most underrated shortstop

CBS Article: Why MLB teams might start changing how they value high-contact hitters (McNeil mentioned)

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/why-mlb-teams-might-start-changing-how-they-value-high-contact-hitters/
Is a high-average renaissance coming in baseball? By Matt Snyder
"Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game" was published in 2003. Michael Lewis' book was then turned into a movie that was released in 2011. And yet, in 2021, there are still so many people out there with the misconception that playing "Moneyball" was about a specific stat ("Moneyball is on-base percentage!" the ignorant will cry out) or even some sort of "sabermetrics" revolution to make people hate the stats they long held near and dear in favor of "newfangled" stuff.
I'll pause for laughter.
No, it's actually about finding market inefficiencies. That is, what skillsets are other teams undervaluing and how can we acquire players -- mostly cheaply -- to exploit this for our gain. There have been several iterations since the initial movement from average to OBP and slugging. Defense is certainly up there, a combination of shifting/positioning and getting undervalued defensive players. Things have obviously been done on the pitching side, such as shortening the game with super bullpens and using openers, among other things.
In light of where things are headed right now in baseball, I'm wondering if we're coming full circle very soon with what type of hitter is undervalued.
That is to say, while the initial "Moneyball" movement set baseball on a path, where average was less important than the other two main rate stats (meaning more emphasis was put on drawing walks -- and, in related matters, working deep counts -- and hitting for power). In the process, we have seen a great shift toward the so-called Three True Outcomes (home runs, walks, strikeouts).
As a result, who got left a bit behind? The high-average, high-contact hitters, possibly with low power.
I said I'm wondering if we're about to come full circle because not only do I believe there's a chance at a market inefficiency in there, I also think the forces of the game are swinging toward this type of hitter being undervalued.
Strikeouts continue to rise. More and more, it seems like whichever team each game hits "the big home run" is the one that goes on to win. Here are the lowest batting averages in MLB since World War I:
1968: .237 1967: .242 1972: .244 2020: .245 If we're wondering about the small sample or want to blame the pandemic, the 2019 average was .252 and the league hit .248 in 2018.
If some of those years above jumped out, it's for good reason. After 1967-68, the pitcher's mound was lowered. After 1972, the American League added the DH.
Meanwhile, in 2020, strikeouts per team game actually dropped -- to the second-most all-time -- from 2019, but 2020 marked the first year it wasn't a new strikeouts per game record since 2007.
It's gotten to the point that it isn't just a small subset fans or curmudgeon broadcasters whining. Many baseball fans acknowledge the game needs more on-field action. At this point, pretty open-minded and even-keel people are discussing that something has to change. Home runs are great. Walks were far too long an underappreciated part of the game. Big strikeouts are excellent to watch. It's just that we should have more than those things along with groundballs and fly balls going right at nearly perfectly positioned defenders.
On one hand, the pitchers and defense are very good. On another, maybe the shift in philosophy left too many different types of hitters behind. Maybe things should tilt back a bit the other way?
After stepping down from his perch as Cubs president, Theo Epstein took a job with the commissioner's office and said something along these lines (emphasis mine).
"As the game evolves, we all have an interest in ensuring the changes we see on the field make the game as entertaining and action-packed as possible for the fans, while preserving all that makes baseball so special. I look forward to working with interested parties throughout the industry to help us collectively navigate toward the very best version of our game."
He had recently sort of lamented his own role in shaping the game, too. Via The Athletic:
"There are some threats to it because of the way the game is evolving," Epstein said. "I take some responsibility for that. Executives like me who have spent a lot of time using analytics and other measures to try to optimize individual and team performance have unwittingly had a negative impact on the aesthetic value of the game and the entertainment value of the game in some respects."
The hunch here is Epstein will have commissioner Rob Manfred's ear pretty strongly in the next few years. We've also already seen Manfred discussing things like either banning or limiting the shift along with something to curtail strikeouts, such as lowering and/or moving back the mound.
Zeroing in on the possibility of shifts going away, and low-strikeout guys become even more valuable. It doesn't take an Epstein-savvy front office member to figure out the chances of finding a hole without the defense perfectly crafted to a spray chart increase.
Further, after seeing so many strikeouts in huge spots with runners on base over the past several years, I can't help but think that even if a hitter that sits something like .230/.340/.500 can be valuable, evening that out with a high-average contact hitter to keep the line moving at times would be beneficial in creating a more well-rounded lineup.
The poster boy here is D.J. LeMahieu. Believe it or not, Epstein actually inherited him with the Cubs, but traded him away his first offseason with Tyler Colvin for Ian Stewart and Casey Weathers. Stewart looked like the high-walk, high-power guy teams coveted at the time (important update: He wasn't). Despite winning a batting title, winning three Gold Gloves and making two All-Star teams, LeMahieu only got a two-year, $24 million deal with the Yankees after the 2018 season as mostly an afterthought in a huge offseason. He went on to finish fourth in AL MVP voting. Then he finished third last season, leading the majors with a .364 average while also pacing the AL in OBP, OPS and OPS+.
Finally heavily sought after, LeMahieu got six years and $90 million to stay with the Yankees this offseason. Yes, he's developed his power, but he only struck out 90 times in 655 plate appearances in 2019 and 21 times in 195 plate appearances in 2020.
With everything conspiring in this direction anyway, I think LeMahieu is starting a wave.
Here are some others (in a non-exhaustive list) who could become increasingly valuable moving forward into the next decade of baseball evolution.
Tommy La Stella - A broken leg cost La Stella half the 2019 season in what looked like his career year. He already had 16 homers, yet had still only struck out 28 times in 321 plate appearances. Last year, he had the lowest strikeout percentage in baseball while hitting .281 with a .370 OBP.
Ketel Marte - Pay too much attention to the loss of power in just 45 games last year at your peril. He still hit .287 and was tough to strikeout. I'm not expecting a full bounce-back to MVP-caliber levels of 2019, but his bat-on-ball skills have pretty steadily improved for five years straight.
David Fletcher - He's improved all three years in all three rate stats and sports a career .292 average with just 123 strikeouts in 1,190 plate appearances. He also ranks near the very bottom of the league in stuff like barrel percentage, exit velocity and hard-hit percentage. Sending some conventional 2019 people running for the hills is a good trait for someone to have when looking for market inefficiency, right?
Jeff McNeil - Why pick between McNeil and a Pete Alonso type when you have both? McNeil in 248 career games is a .319 hitter with only 123 strikeouts in 1,024 plate appearances. Like Fletcher, his "batted ball profile" leaves a lot to be desired, too.
Trea Turner - We've seen former Turner teammates Bryce Harper and Anthony Rendon strike it very rich in free agency while his current teammate Juan Soto rightfully will garner a ton more attention here in the short term. Just don't forget about Trea. His strikeout percentages aren't excessive -- remember, as a leadoff man he takes tons of plate appearances -- and he's a career .296 hitter. He makes consistent contact, has some power and can fly.
Kevin Newman - Newman had a dreadful 2020 season, but it was only 45 games in the middle of a pandemic. I'm not going to harp on that when we've got 130 games of a .308 hitter in 2019 who only struck out 62 times in 531 plate appearances. Don't sleep on him.
Jean Segura - Segura became a different hitter in 2020. His strikeout percentage jumped from 11.8 to 20.7. Along with it went his previously high average. But he walked a lot more and his OBP went up. It was weird. Regardless, keep in mind what a fluky season 2020 was. Segura was in the top five percent of toughest hitters to strikeout in 2018 and 2019 while topping a .300 average 2016-18. He's 30. I have faith in him being productive with a good average and lower strikeout rate in 2021. And hey, maybe he'll even keep walking. I never said it was bad.
Jake Cronenworth - As a rookie last year, Cronenworth put together a season in which he would've struck out around 90 times in a full year while hitting .285. His minor-league and amateur profile has long shown someone with good contact skills capable of a higher average. He was never a top-100 prospect in the minors, but he now heads into territory where he can have an impact simply by being differently valuable than the 2010s prototype.
To be clear, this premise isn't even remotely saying teams should load up on only these types of players. The best lineups are the most well-rounded. Get you a few of these types to pair with some big boppers and things would be looking pretty damn nice. The conditions are ripe for a bit of a sea change in how hitters are valued in these next few years. Watch LeMahieu, La Stella and company for a guide while someone like Cronenworth carries the torch to the next generation.

[Long] What is a GOAT: What would a modern day all time WAR leader look like.

I will be using bWAR for this.
The all time WARLORD is Babe Ruth with 182.5 WAR. The only player to get somewhat close to this in my lifetime has been Barry Bonds, with a respectable 162.8 (4th place).
The thing that makes the WAR record so hard to beat is the fact that Ruth played at a level so far beyond what the rest of the league was capable of. His OPS led baseball in 13 straight seasons. No one will ever be as dominant as Babe Ruth. The game has evolved and there is more parity in talent. I don't know if Babe Ruth would still be great today, but I know the value of the replacement player has improved drastically. If someone were to beat Ruth's record, they wouldn't have to be more dominant than Ruth, but have an all around package and everything go their way.
There are a few requirements for a modern hitter to break Babe Ruth's record.

1. He has to play for fuckin ever

WAR is a cumulative stat. Thus, if anyone is going to have a chance at breaking Ruth's record, this player is going to have to play a LOT of years in the MLB. This player is going to have to start early as well. Of the top 25 WAR players, only 3 (Cy Young, Tom Seaver, and Mike Schmidt) were older that 21 when they started their MLB careers. The most recent player in this list, ARod, started at 18. If a player starts at 18 and plays to 45, which seems to be roughly the old limit, then he only has to get 6.52WAR per season on average to break Ruth's record. Having a player start at 23 raises that average to 7.93, which seems a little less attainable outside of old timey pitchers throwing 50 complete games a season.

2. He has to be durable.

Again, since WAR is a cumulative stat, such a player needs to be a rock for his entire career. Not all of the top players had such durability, including Ruth himself. But I also doubt you are going to see many players put up a 9.1WAR season in 130 games like Ruth. While gone are the days of Cal Ripken where players tried to play every game every season, it isn't unreasonable to think our young WARlord will be playing at least 150 games a season on average once he gets past his rookie year. Any injuries are going to have to come at the end of his career, particularly nagging ones and things that slow him down.

3. He has to play a premium position and play it well.

In order to maximize yearly WAR, it is important that our hypothetical star play a position with a strong defense adjustment. This leaves us with CF, SS, 2B, and C. Pitcher would have been a possibility back in the day, but with relievers taking a larger and larger piece of the innings pie, it seems like hitter is the best way to go. A 2-way player would have a better chance, but they are exceedingly rare.
We can eliminate Catcher right off the bat. Catchers play less games per season, get injured more often, have shorter careers, and have worse stats due to wear and tear. The highest WAR of any catcher is Johnny Bench with 75.2. That puts him at 79th all time WAR and not even half of Ruth's total.
The Majority of high WAR players in history are OF. Odds are if someone were to beat Ruth, they would be doing it from CF, at least until later in their career.

4. He will need to be an athlete.

While Babe Ruth may have a beer swilling, hot dog eating, STD collecting hero, our modern player is going to have to be an athlete. They will need to be fast, run the bases well (not necessarily steal bases), and keep in good shape for their entire careers. Good baserunning and defense, at least in the beginning of a players career could add up to 5 or more WAR in a season. Our player is going to need this defense a lot in his early years while he can still rack up dWAR.

5. He will probably need to be a Righty.

The shift has complicated things for Lefty batters. Our hypothetical hitter will need to be able to beat the shift if they are a lefty. This might not be a problem early on, but become an issue as our player slows down with age. Since the shift has been established, older, slower lefties have been getting squeezed by the shift. Every WAR counts. Unless our batter is a Switch Hitter or can hit to all fields, he will probably be a righty.

6. He will need to be on a good hitting team, probably in a big market.

Our player is going to need some top-shelf offensive talent hitting behind him to make sure he isn't getting the Bonds treatment. To afford the salaries of both megahitters, this player will probably spend most of his career on a major market team.

7. He will probably be a 3 true outcomes hitter (and a really good one, duh).

Launch Angle, batspeed, barrel, OBP, dingers, and Ks. This player is going to probably not going to spend all that much time getting singles. That doesn't mean that he won't have a high batting average. Our player is going to need to hit at a high clip, but with a fat amount of XBHs and walks added in. I wouldn't be surprised if this hitter breaks the HR record, but more in a Hank Aaron style of consistent HR success over a long career.

8. He will get all the awards.

To start off our players career. He is going to win the RoY, or at the very least become a star in his first full season. He needs to hit the ground running and start accumulating WAR right away.
He will be a perennial All-Star. I am talking Hank Aaron 25 All Star appearances.
While Gold Gloves don't automatically go to the best defender, our guy will quickly become a big name for his bat and his defense. Expect a ton of Gold Gloves, probably some in his 30s as well.
Silver Sluggers will probably be the award our player wins the most. He will probably break Barry Bonds' record of 12 SS.
Expect our player to get MVP votes pretty much every season until his last couple, much like Hank Aaron. Since our player is going to need to be the best player in baseball for many of his seasons, expect him to come close to Bonds' 7 wins. Hank only won 1, but advanced stats would have given him more wins today.

9. He is going to be an all around good guy who never takes steroids (or never gets caught).

Any suspensions are going to kill our player's chance of winning the WARLORD title. Losing a season is probably going to cost our player at least 6 WAR. Also, he doesn't want to end his career like Bonds. Barry possibly could have gotten the career WAR mark if teams were willing to deal with him. His last two seasons he got 4.0 and 3.4 WAR respectively, but he retired at 42. Had he held on until his late 40s, he could have eked it out. But Bonds was a dick, so he got blacklisted.

10. He cannot pull a Pujols.

When his time is up, he has to retire. Pujols over the last 4 years has been worth -0.7WAR. Our player has to play well past his peak, but also retire before this happens.
So this his my hypothetical WARLORD.

Year	Age	WAR	Awards
1	18	1.2
2	19	7.3	RoY, AS
3	20	8.0	AS, SS, GG
4	21	9.1	AS, SS, GG, MVP
5	22	7.9	AS, GG
6	23	7.2	AS, GG
7	24	9.7	AS, SS, GG, MVP
8	25	8.9	AS, SS, GG
9	26	7.6	AS, GG
10	27	7.7	AS, GG
11	28	10.5	AS, SS, GG, MVP
12	29	11.2	AS, SS, GG, MVP
13	30	10.8	AS, SS, GG, MVP
14	31	8.9	AS, SS, GG
15	32	7.5	AS, SS
16	33	9.3	AS, SS, MVP
17	34	6.9	AS, SS
18	35	5.4	AS, SS
19	36	4.9	AS
20	37	5.2	AS, SS
21	38	3.9	AS
22	39	4.3	AS
23	40	4.0	AS
24	41	3.3	AS
25	42	3.3	AS
26	43	2.1
27	44	2.8
28	45	3.2
29	46	2.1
AVG	x	6.4
TOTAL	x	184.2 (Record)	RoY, 24 AS, 13 SS (Record), 12 GG (OF tie), 6 MVP

So recap, our CF (later RF) is a righty with good defense, speed, character, never has a serious injury, plays in front of another HoF bat on a big market team, who hits dongs and takes walks.
Our guy probably ends up with the HR record, and is top 5 for a ton of other categories. He goes into the HoF unanimously.
I hope this has been as fun for you to read as it was to write it.

Better Know the Ones Left Off the Ballot #22: Corey Hart

Well that was disappointing. I'm still here, though, because there are too many good stories I haven't gotten to yet. For all y'all that aren't so familiar with what's going on here, the Selection Committee that puts together the list of players on the ballot have to trim it down quite a bit, since there's a whole lot of people who technically qualify but aren't deemed noteworthy enough to get recognized with a placement on the ballot. Here, we look at the ones left behind. There are a lot more of these at the bottom, so check those out if you're into that sort of thing. To the main attraction.

Corey Hart

Bill James Hall of Fame Monitor: 16
Career bWAR (11 years): 14.4
Stats: .271/.329/.478, 112 OPS+, 1009 H, 162 HR, 416 XBH, 538 RBI, 549 R
League Leading Stats: Games as RF (156, 2008)
Awards: All-Star 2x (2008, 2010)
Teams Played For: Brewers (2004-12), Mariners (2014), Pirates (2015)
Corey Hart is a Canadian singer-songwriter. He has released two Gold Records and one Platinum Record, and nine of his singles have reached the American Top 40. He also shares a name with a former Brewers right fielder. That Corey Hart was a two-time All-Star and one-time Home Run Derby contestant, got over a thousand hits, had a career OPS above .800, and yet I can still only think of him as the "Sunglasses at Night" guy. Neither Corey Hart the singer nor Corey Hart the baseball player are on the Hall of Fame ballot this year, though only one of them qualified for it. The other released nine studio albums and six compilation records. I hope I don't confuse the two.
Hart's career began in the 2000 draft, when the Milwaukee Brewers drafted him in the 11th round. It became clear quite quickly that he was a First Offense, second defense type of player, and so for a good 5 years in the minors, he tried out at first, third, and all over the outfield. Over those five years, he never once finished the year with a batting average below .280, or, apart from his first season, an OPS below .800. He also hit 91 home runs and drove in 456 RBIs. Not too bad for someone drafted out of high school. Hart even found time out of the day to make a pinch-hitting appearance in May of 2004 for some godforsaken reason, then show up in 21 MLB games in 2005, going a significantly worse .165/.270/.368. He did get a home run in his first start in center field, though. Seems even at 23, Hart's plate presence showed he was more than just a Boy In The Box.
Hart's first real full-time season was 2006, when he batted .283/.328/.468. Tack on 9 home runs to that and you got a perfectly fine rookie campaign, fielding woes notwithstanding. One might even say equivalent to another rookie on the team who batted .271/.347/.483. Oh, that other guy got Rookie of the Year votes and Hart didn't? And that was due in no small part to some shenanigans in Florida? And that other rookie also hit 28 home runs and was named Prince Fielder? Okay, fine. He still had done enough to secure his place on the team for the near future. 2007 would be the year he'd get so hot the fields he was playing on became Fields of Fire. One thing that I haven't talked about that really contributed to Corey Hart's rise up the music charts- ahem, minor leagues, was his speed. Despite his 6'6" frame, he stole 135 bases before he was a full-time Major League player, only getting caught 38 times. Because of that, in 2007 he became, as far as my thoroughly research has told me, the tallest regular leadoff hitter in MLB history. My thorough research consisted of me googling "tallest leadoff hitter" and getting no other results, so feel free to prove me wrong (and no, Aaron Judge does not count). Hart kicked off 55 games in the 1 spot in 2007, stealing a total of 23 bases on the year. Guess you could call him a Young Man Running. Those legs helped the Brewers improve from a 75-87 finish the previous year to the best record in the NL a week after the All-Star break. Even if they stumbled through the rest of the season, they still finished 83-79, a marked improvement. That was thanks in part to Corey Hart, whose 4.7 bWAR was the most on the team. Naturally, he was voted to... oh? That Prince guy hit 50 homers and came in 3rd in MVP voting? And this other kid named Braun put up one of the worst defensive seasons at third base and still stumbled into a Rookie of the Year Award and a couple MVP votes by hitting really well? And Corey didn't show up on a single ballot despite fielding far better than either of them? Oh whatever. Hart had still entered everyday play in the league with a Bang!
The next five years, Corey Hart was taken out of the leadoff spot, and settled into a pattern of good-to-very-good-but-never-truly-great baseball. He averaged .274/.332/.486, with highs of 31 homers and 102 RBIs coming in 2010. He even got voted to the All-Star game that year, coming in third in that year's Home Run Derby behind a shortstop and a 35-year-old man. That shortstop may have been named Hanley Ramirez and that 35-year-old man may have been named David Ortiz, so it's not that bad. Hart even garnered all of two 10th place NL MVP votes that year after hitting .283/.340/.525. Good luck telling me why a dude with that line on a team that finished 77-85 who led the team in exactly one category (slugging) was the 10th most valuable player that year. He also got an All-Star berth in 2008 for... sympathy, I guess? Yeah he was hitting .299 with 14 dingers before the break, and the Brewers were doing well, but was he really more deserving than, like, Jerry Hairston batting over .330? Perhaps Hart's good Christian morals pushed him over the edge, since his inclusion was based on a fan vote, and he might've been viewed as possessing worthwhile Attitude & Virtue. The end of that year even saw him get into the playoffs, where he went hit 3 singles, and watched his team step aside as the 2008 Phillies trotted their way to a 3-1 NLDS win en route to the World Series. His 2011 numbers (.285/.356/.510) were near carbon copies of his 2010 numbers (.283/.340/.525). This time the team around him was different, though, because Ryan Braun played like an MVP, Prince Fielder hit lots of home runs again, and Jonathan Lucroy began to come into his own. Also they got Zack Greinke and had a competent bullpen, which probably helped. The Brewers again made the playoffs, and this time Hart hit two home runs, one for each series his team was in. Milwaukee also lost both games where he homered, so make of that what you will. After the Cardinal devil magic cursed them to an NLCS defeat, Hart came back in 2012 for more of the same, with a couple more home runs and 20 RBIs but also almost 40 more strikeouts and his lowest OPS in three years. He also only stole 5 bases after the past two years combined saw only 14 out of 26 attempts go well. He did play a mean first base for the first time in a while after two other first basemen got injured. A January knee surgery was also set to take out a sizable chunk of his speed, which was already on the decline as exhibited by his dip in fielding range. The 3-4 month recovery time was expected to keep him out until May, but once the other knee also required surgery, his 2013 season would end without him ever having suited up for a Brewers game. Even with so much time spent in the organization, including the 10th most total bases in franchise history and a higher Brewers career OPS than both Paul Molitor and Robin Yount, the team said "It Ain't Enough." He'd just been paid $10 million to sit on the sidelines for a year, and given that it was most likely going to be more than that to keep him, Milwaukee instead thanked him for his service and unleashed him on the open market. Would another team see his history, and say "I know I shouldn't, but I Can't Help Falling In Love Corey Hart cover version?"
MLB Trade Rumors placed Hart as the 39th best free agent available. He signed a 1-year, $6-million contract with the Seattle Mariners to prove he still had what it took, and that he'd Never Surrender. Maybe he should've, because after a year of off-and-on Designated Hitting ended with a line of .201/.271/.319, plus notching more strikeouts than hits for the first time in his career, the Mariners decided not to bring him back for the next season. The Pirates, clearly paying all kinds of attention, signed him to another prove-it contract for $2.5 million. Maybe he told them "I'll give you Everything in My Heart." Then he went .222/.246/.352 in just 35 games, and something something Self-Titled. That would be the last we saw of Corey Hart the baseball player, and he confirmed as much in 2017 when he signed a one-day contract with Milwaukee to end it where he started. Hope it didn't leave him feeling Jaded. Ten Thousand Horses.
For all the flack I've given him, Corey Hart did have a nice career. Perhaps not the most memorable, nor the sort that could brand him an unsung hero, but a fine eleven years of baseball. Well, more like a fine seven years, surrounded by four in which he either played poorly or barely played at all, sometimes both. From the tallest regular leadoff guy to a two-time All-Star, there was plenty to like, but not enough to remember, which is why I think he was left off the ballot. And you know what, who am I to compare him to the likes of a singer like the "Sunglasses at Night" dude? Singin' Corey Hart only had 40 singles. Swingin' Corey Hart had over 500 of those!
Corey Hart would visit the Hall of Fame in a Brewers hat for his 950 hits, 154 home runs, 508 RBIs, and 83 stolen bases with the club. He can't visit with sunglasses on at night because the Hall closes at 5 PM.
Here is some more of this same thing but with different names and stories
#1: Randy Choate
#2: Kevin Gregg
#3: Dan Uggla
#4: Josh Hamilton
#5: Delmon Young
#6: Willie Bloomquist
#7: Grady Sizemore
#8: Kevin Correia
#9: David DeJesus
#10: Rafael Betancourt
#11: Clint Barmes
#12: Adam LaRoche
#13: Grant Balfour
#14: Randy Wolf
#15: Rafael Soriano
#16: Chris Denorfia
#17: Bruce Chen
#18: Cody Ross
#19: Scott Baker
#20: Jeff Francis
#21: Aaron Harang

Better Know the Ones Left Off the Ballot #20: Jeff Francis

Second one of the day! This is actually as many as I got to last year, so as long as I do one more, I've done better this time. If you're wondering what this is, basically the Hall of Fame has too many people who are eligible for the ballot, so a Selection Committee cuts the list down to a manageable size. Here we take a look at the players they decided to cut. The rest of the players I've already looked at can be found at the bottom, and away we go!

Jeff Francis

Bill James Hall of Fame Monitor: 6
Career bWAR (11 years): 9.6 (10.1 w/o batting)
Stats: 72-82, 4.97 ERA, 93 ERA+, 217 GS, 1291.0 IP, 869 K, 384 BB, 1.442 WHIP
League Leading Stats: Fielding % as P 4x (1.000, 2005-07, 2011)
Awards: None
Teams Played For: Rockies (2004-08, 2010, 2012-13), Royals (2011), Reds (2014), Athletics (2014), Yankees (2014), Blue Jays (2015)
The story of Jeff Francis reminds me of a quote by former ESPN columnist John Sickels: "If you have a top prospect, you should never be disappointed when he turns out to be Lyle Overbay." I think I have a similar statement: "If you're the Colorado Rockies, and you have a top pitching prospect, you should never be disappointed when he turns out to be Jeff Francis." With the way he played as a prospect, Overbay could have very well been predicted to set the league on fire, but he "only" had a nice long career, being an average-to-above-average first baseman. Jeff Francis, likewise, was fantastic as a prospect, and did just all right in the MLB. But in both cases, expectation and reality must meet somewhere, and these two share the distinction of riding that line. Another thing the two have in common? Neither ended up on the Hall of Fame ballot. I already talked about Lyle, so here's what I have to say about Jeff.
To put it lightly, Jeff Francis had a nice college career. To put it heavily, the lefty's stats his last two years looked like this:

20-4, 1.35 ERA, 173 IP, 31 BB, 229 K

While it may have been true he was playing in Canada, that's still a statline you don't pass up in the first round of the 2002 MLB Draft. The Colorado Rockies certainly didn't, because they had the ninth pick, and driving six truckloads of money to Mike Hampton's doorstep hadn't solved their pitching woes. The pick actually made Francis the highest drafted Canadian player ever. Well, second highest, since fellow Maple Leaf Countryman Adam Loewen had been chosen just 5 picks prior. Still, Francis was a can't-miss future stud practically his whole minor league career. Just 4 runs allowed in his first 7 starts in low-to-mid A. 12-9 with a 3.47 ERA in a full high-A season, putting him at #93 on the Baseball America list. Promotion to AA resulted in his best season yet, starting 17 games, winning 13 of them, and allowing only 25 earned runs in 113.2 innings while also striking out 147 like it was no big deal. Moved on up to AAA, went 3-2 with 49 strikeouts and a 2.85 ERA in Colorado Springs. By the end of that stretch, his 2004 minor league numbers were sitting pretty at 16-3, a 2.21 ERA in 24 starts, and 196 strikeouts in 154.2 innings across double-and-triple-A. At season's end, he'd receive Baseball America's Minor League Player of the Year Award. That trophy very often signified a lengthy and successful Major League career in store for the awardee. Other recipients include Derek Jeter, Jose Canseco, and Dwight Gooden. And now Jeff Francis adds his name to that list. Only reason he didn't have better stats was because the Rockies called him up in late August.
After Jeff Francis' first two starts, he'd allowed 14 runs, all earned. Welcome to the Rockies! Wait, both those games were on the road? Oh dear. After his year concluded with 7 Major League starts, he laid claim to a 5.15 ERA, 8 home runs allowed, and a .286 batting average against. All of this was actually about par for the course when it came to Rockies pitching, even if you account for 5 of his 7 starts coming away from Denver. And yet, given his minor league pedigree and the hype around having an actual good pitcher in Colorado, big things were still expected of him. Thanks to those expectations, his award for pitching very well, and a good spring training to boot, the 2005 Colorado Rockies starting rotation would have Jeff Francis as its third member. Now some might be rather surprised and say "letting a rookie with a 5.15 ERA in the Major League games he's started be your third rotation piece is insane!" To that I say two things: first, this is the Rockies. Second, they've done this before. In 2001, former first-round pick Jason Jennings pitched a complete game shutout in his first start as a Rockie, but struggled down the stretch, before a nice spring training and hype around a good Rockies pitcher slotted him as the number 5 starter for 2002. His year ended with a record of 16-8, only the third time a pitcher of any experience had ever reached that number of wins for Colorado. It also ended with him as the staff ace, standing atop what was left after established arms Denny Neagle and the previously mentioned Mike Hampton exploded. Jennings ended up winning Rookie of the Year, not because his numbers were especially impressive (his 4.52 ERA was the worst among qualified rookie starters, and he only had 13 Quality Starts, 9 of which weren't at Coors), but because he did all that as a rookie pitcher on the Colorado Rockies. The apparently Herculean task of pitching moderately well for that team had been accomplished by someone in their first full season, and for that, the voters agreed Jennings should be rewarded. Colorado's pitching had not gotten much better since then (including Jennings, who had slowed down as of late), and they were hoping that the card they'd put up their sleeve could help them here. That card, Francis, was their third starter, for better or for worse. How'd it go?
Jeff Francis started more games for the Rockies that year than any other pitcher. That's good! He also had more wins (14) and strikeouts (128) than any other Colorado pitcher. That's even better! He also laid claim to a 5.68 ERA, a WHIP above 1.600, and a measly 0.3 bWAR from the mound. That's not very good! One might even call that bad! Well, one might, if one were talking about anybody other than a rookie pitcher for the Colorado Rockies. Francis even provided some hope for the future of the team, because if you looked at his Home/Away splits, he actually pitched better at Coors than he did elsewhere. He even duplicated Jason Jennings' rookie number of 13 Quality Starts, but reversed the locational division by pitching 9 of them in Denver. Colorado still lost 95 games, but Francis did show up on a couple Rookie of the Year ballots. As previously mentioned, the voters saw he had 14 wins as a rookie on the team that played half their games in Home Run Derby: The Ballpark. 2006 carried a lot of promise for the Rockies pitching staff, and somehow, some way, they didn't let down. Francis did win fewer games, going 13-11, but he did so with a 4.16 ERA, over 1.50 lower than in 2005. The best part was it was second best on the staff, and only barely avoided being third. Jason Jennings (3.78) had returned to form, and number 2 starter Aaron Cook (4.23) blossomed into a legitimate option. Between the three of them, they only allowed 52 home runs in 600+ innings, roughly half of which were pitched at a veritable baseball trampoline meetup every time teams played there. Francis even pitched a complete game shutout against the eventual World Series Champion St. Louis Cardinals, and he did it at Coors Field no less. The bullpen showed up too, with dependable closer Brian Fuentes saving 30 games, a 40-year-old Jose Mesa finding remnants of his better self, and youngsters like Ramon Ramirez and Manny Corpas doing their part as well. Them and the rest combined to allow 812 runs that year, the lowest total a Rockies team had ever allowed over a 162-game season. Pity the offense fell asleep. Todd Helton had a down year, as his .880 OPS was his lowest in almost ten years (this man was so good). To supplement, the regular hitting core of Matt Holliday, Garrett Atkins, and Brad Hawpe just didn't do enough to finish better than 76-86. However, the groundwork had been set, and with actual good pitching for the first time in what seemed like forever, the Colorado Rockies and Jeff Francis could, possibly, compete in 2007.
That next year, the Colorado Rockies won the NL Pennant. The biggest reasons that this happened were Matt Holliday and Todd Helton improving on their already stellar hitting numbers, Brad Hawpe batting in runs like there was no tomorrow, second baseman Kaz Matsui and rookie phenom Troy Tulowitzki holding the middle infield hostage with their amazing defense, and the dependable backstop of Yorvit Torrealba behind the dish. Add in a platoon at center field that had Steve Finley in it for some reason, Garrett Atkins having a down year in the field but still coming in clutch at the plate, and more utility players than you could shake a stick at, and you have the 2007 Rockies. That's the narrative that formed in the months and years following Rocktober. It also completely ignores just how instrumental the pitching was to that team. That staff and bullpen combined to allow just 758 runs, blowing the previous year's new low to pieces. Only 8 games would be started by pitchers whose ERAs were above 5 at the end of the year. That number had never been below 30. While bullpen arm Ramirez may have lost his touch, Fuentes and Corpas didn't, and they were joined by Jeremy Affeldt, LaTroy Hawkins, and Matt Herges as the best bullpen Colorado had ever seen. And hey, did I mention the rotation? While Jennings had been traded and Cook would do well before an injury, everyone else stepped up. Josh Fogg, who had struggled the past two years, put together his best season as a Rockie. Offseason acquisitions Rodrigo Lopez, Jason Hirsh, and Taylor Buchholz proved they could do just fine in Denver. A young fellow by the name of Ubaldo Jimenez even got his licks in, winning 4 games and striking out 68 in 15 starts. And then, at the top of the rotation, sporting a 17-9 record and 165 strikeouts which were both best on the team by a mile, was Jeff Francis. He had emerged as the ace, even receiving Cy Young consideration at the end of the year. This 26-year-old was the future of this team's pitching. Allowing just three runs in two playoff starts showed he could perform in the postseason as well. Ignore the 6-run outing in the World Series, that doesn't count. Clearly, the Rockies would be a force to be reckoned with for years to come, and any challengers to their throne would have to go through Jeff Francis, whose nerves of steel didn't care of he was pitching a mile above sea level or on the moon. Or at least, that's what it seemed like.
Don't get me wrong, Francis' 2007 year was great, and he earned the single fifth-place Cy Young vote he got. However, his numbers weren't the stuff that aces are made of, and his ballot inclusion strikes me more as "including the best pitcher on the team that won the pennant" than it does a vote for the fifth best pitcher that year. His 4.22 ERA wasn't even the best on the staff, and his 25 home runs allowed were far from exemplary. The excitement that surrounded that Rockies team was incredible, but it also cast aside any warning signs that Francis' numbers might have shown. The 2008 season would see him start Opening Day against the Cardinals, only for it to get rained out in the third inning. Thus his first real test came against the Arizona Diamondbacks. The last time they met, Francis threw a Quality Start, which just so happened to be Game 1 of the NLCS. Francis, who up to this point had owned Arizona, allowed 12 hits, 3 home runs, and 5 runs to take the loss. His next start was against the Diamondbacks again, but this time at Chase Field, which was a venue that he had not lost at in his four trips there. This visit would see Arizona lay 3 home runs on him again, and plate 7 runs for him to take the loss again. Cracks were beginning to show. By the end of June, Francis was 3-7, had allowed 63 earned runs and 17 homers, and was on his way to the DL with shoulder inflammation. After a couple rehab starts showed he was back in tip-top shape, he came back, and started 7 games, 6 of which were Quality Starts. He also got shut down in the middle of September, since the Rockies were out of playoff contention by that point, and his coaches felt it would be better for his shoulder. Francis' final numbers were 4-10, an ERA of 5.01, and 21 homers allowed in 24 starts. Things went even further south when it was announced in February of 2009 that the September shutdown hadn't stopped him from requiring arthroscopic surgery. Francis would miss the entirety of that year's season, further delaying the opportunity for his return to form. In spring training of 2010, it was determined he still wasn't quite ready, and he began that year on the DL. After a couple more rehab starts went his way, he returned in May, winning his first contest back against the Nationals after tossing 7 innings of 1-run ball. That season would see still more ups and downs, with eight of his starts being Quality, and eleven not so much. He finished the year 4-6 in 19 games started with an ERA of 5.00, but there were signs that things were improving. His FIP of 3.88 was the lowest of his career. His K/BB of 2.91 was the highest of his career. His 1.361 WHIP was the lowest it had been in years. Even his home/away splits were still roughly equivalent. And yet, the Rockies, who would most likely have needed to tender a contract of around $7 million to retain the lefty, didn't see that sort of value in him anymore. They granted him free agency at the end of the season, and just three years after being the star pitcher on a World Series team, Jeff Francis was without a job. Was it worth it for anybody to take a chance on him?
The Royals had just completed a 95-loss season, and were still rather far away from serious contention, but needed somebody to start games, so they gave Jeff Francis a call. A $2 million offer over one year got accepted, and a 6-16 record, 4.82 ERA, and overall "meh" season later, Kansas City bid him adieu. The Rockies, feeling sorry for the poor sap after a deal with the Reds fell flat, re-signed him for a couple years, watched him go 9-12 with an ERA hovering right around 6, and figured the good times had passed, turning him loose after 2013. In 2014, the Reds tried again. 8 triple-A starts and one losing MLB start with Cincinnati led to a waiver claim by the Oakland A's. Then 9 games in relief and one loss as an Athletic led to a trade to the Yankees. Two games of cleanup pitching and one win with New York led to a trip to free agency because they released him. Francis finished the year signing a contract with Toronto in October, and the Blue Jays were the only team he played for in 2015. He pitched in 14 games before getting reassigned to the triple-A Buffalo Bisons for the rest of the year, and once he wasn't brought back for the next year, Jeff Francis announced his retirement that December.
Sure, Jeff Francis wasn't the best at pitching. Sure, he lost more games than he won, and he could never really be considered "elite." Sure, injuries derailed his career from ever getting back to where it once was headed. All that may be true. But when it comes to Rockies pitching development, that's honestly par for the course. Actually it's a bit better than par. Maybe a birdie, but not quite an eagle. Jeff Francis' career went way better than many other Rockies top pitching prospects. Who remembers Chin-hui Tsao? Or Lariel Gonzalez? Or Dough Million? Exactly. Okay, you probably didn't remember Jeff Francis either, but trust me, he's better than those guys. All in all, the story of Jeff Francis doesn't get the credit I think he merits, especially for the part where he was the first Canadian pitcher to do a bunch of stuff. First Canadian to start a World Series Game 1, first Sorry-sayer to pitch to another Hockey-Lover, first Regular-Tim-Hortons-drinker to start Opening Day... too much?
Jeff Francis would visit the Hall of Fame in a Colorado Rockies cap for his 64-62 record, 742 strikeouts, and 8 years played for the team. He'd also wear his gold medal he won at the 2015 Pan America Games as part of Team Canada.
But wait, there's more! Too much more. Dear me.
#1: Randy Choate
#2: Kevin Gregg
#3: Dan Uggla
#4: Josh Hamilton
#5: Delmon Young
#6: Willie Bloomquist
#7: Grady Sizemore
#8: Kevin Correia
#9: David DeJesus
#10: Rafael Betancourt
#11: Clint Barmes
#12: Adam LaRoche
#13: Grant Balfour
#14: Randy Wolf
#15: Rafael Soriano
#16: Chris Denorfia
#17: Bruce Chen
#18: Cody Ross
#19: Scott Baker

The AI and pitcher usage (and other game suggestions).

I know I can't be the only one who plays Franchise and notices the AI tends to be extremely quick to jump to the bullpen, whether it be when you're playing against them or when you watch a game. Considering the limited amount of pitchers available is going to be five at most in a typical game (starter + four relievers. If you use a starter, problems have happened), this struck me as counterproductive.
I think it has a lot to do with why relievers tend to have such terrible ERA's over long seasons, because they're overworked into oblivion. The AI also seems to do some pretty unique stuff when managing pitcher usage overall so I decided to pick a couple of the default teams and sim some seasons (5-6 for each team) to see what trends came out. I used a custom league with only the default teams in there. No DH in both conferences, random divisions, 162 9-inning games, 99 ego all around. The teams I picked to sim were:
Jacks: 4 SP, 3 RP, 1 CP. Starters are horrible, bullpen is really good.
Crocodons: 4 SP, 3 RP, 1 CP. Great starters, awful bullpen.
Buzzards: 3 SP, 2 SP/RP, 2 RP, 1 CP. Meh rotation, terrible bullpen.
Moonstars: 4 SP, 1 SP/RP, 2 RP, 1 CP. Elite rotation, great bullpen
Moose: 4 SP, 1 SP/RP, 2 RP, 1 CP. Above average in both.
I figured that was a wide enough range of teams to pick from. So here's what I found:

In general, starters will pitch anywhere between 55-60% of a team's innings and average just over 5 innings per start. Even the team that used its starters the most, the Moonstars, barely had them average 5 and a half innings per start. In the extreme case of the Jacks, starters pitched only 52% of the team's total innings.
Even the best starting pitchers in the game rarely average 6 innings per start. I'm talking even the Alisha Woodrow, Jovita Pulo types, the A+ or S tier types. The most innings any starter threw in a full 41-start season was 253 (Hurley Bender), which is just 6.17 IP/start. For reference, even in the shortened 2020 MLB season, with teams being careful of pitchers arms and bullpen usage at an all time high, 5 or 6 starters went past 6.17 IP/start. It feels like every AI team is managed by Kevin Cash is what I'm saying.
The AI does weird things with the SP/RP types. If there's less than 4 starters, a SP/RP will be used exclusively as a starter, except they typically barely average 4 innings per start. If there's 4 starters and a SP/RP, the long reliever will likely be the least used bullpen arm all year. Don't ask me why but it happens.
Closers get abused like little else, particularly if the starting rotation is not good. I've had seasons where a closer throws well over 200 innings. This all leads to closers typically having the worst ERA on the team and a huge amount of losses, because they get used while exhausted and blow a lot of games.
All AI pitchers average a LOT of pitches per plate appearance, typically somewhere between 4 and 4.25. I think the AI and their Joey Votto-like approach in early counts really contributes to this. This just contributes further to starters lasting a lot less and facing less batters, relievers getting tired, etc. For reference, 2020 marked a high point in MLB's recent history in terms of pitches per PA and the MLB average was 3.96.
I think a small tweak to either increase starter stamina slightly or make the AI slightly more aggressive would be a good way to solve this, because currently the AI is way too eager to dive right into a 4-man bullpen. Maybe if we had 5-6 relievers (with lowered stamina) instead of 4 I could see the current AI decisionmaking work, but I'd prefer simply starters pitching deeper into games.

Also, sort of unrelated, but this game would really benefit from adding an "approach" feature that gives batters and pitchers more individual tendencies to set them apart from one another bc as of now, two hitters with 80ish power and 60ish contact are the same thing, occasional traits aside. I think you could add the following:
For hitters:

Batting approach: Aggressive, Neutral, Disciplined
Fielding approach: Aggressive, Neutral, Conservative
Baserunning approach: Aggressive, Neutral, Conservative
Batted Ball tendency: Groundball Hitter, Neutral, Flyball Hitter
Batted Ball tendency: Spray Hitter, Neutral, Pull Hitter

You could also add "Extreme" on both ends of the spectrum.
This would not only make each player way more unique and memorable, it would also give added depth to acquiring players in franchise mode, bc you'd have to take your ballpark and pitching staff into consideration. Tiger Den is your home ballpark? Load up on flyball hitters. Swagger Center? Lefties who pull the ball would be great. Etc. (Also, please add basic defensive shifts into the game if this idea gets considered).
For pitchers:

Pitcher tendency: Groundball Pitcher, Neutral, Flyball Pitcher
Pitcher approach: Power Pitcher, Junkballer, Finesse Pitcher

So for example, a Power Pitcher would rely more on their fastballs, a junkballer would throw a ton of breaking and offspeed stuff and a finesse pitcher would nibble a bit more and look to clip the edges all time.
And more of the sort. I would also really like new Traits that affect pitcher stamina, like a starter with the "Workhorse" trait who loses stamina at a lower rate once he gets past 70 pitches or something, I don't know, just throwing ideas out there. This was kinda all over the place, but I hope it's enough to spark some convo. Also, idk how to tag MetalHead Software so they can see the suggestions (I'm new here), if someone could do it it would be dope.

How much (negative) WAR would a potato accrue playing centerfield for a Major League team for a full season?

This is part 2 of my "How much WAR would ________ get?" series. You can find How much (negative) WAR would I accrue playing on a Major League team for a full season? here.

So yeah. I wasn't satisfied with just knowing how much negative WAR I would get. I needed to know how much WAR an inanimate object, say, a potato, would cost a Major League team. And more importantly, am I closer in value to said potato than I am to an actual big leaguer?
Once more there are assumptions. This is a magic potato. It has everyone convinced it is actually a competent center fielder. So no rearranging the fielders to compensate for having an inanimate object on your roster. But as soon as the play starts, all involved simultaneously say "oh fuck" as they realize they have been fooled into believing this tuber can play baseball.
We will go through the components as we did last time, rearranging the order a bit.

Positional Adjustment

Tate will be manning center for a full season. 162 games of CF is worth 2.5 runs. Looking good so far!

Batting

We can discuss whether a potato (or a carrot, for that matter) even with a human-sized strike zone would pick up a couple of walks (I think so, actually), but for the purposes of this exercise, we will assume Tate will go .000/.000/.000. Which brings us to the matter of plate appearances. As everyone knows, magic potatoes will fool people into believing they are decent lead-off men. So Tate will lead off 162 games. According to Baseball Reference's batting splits page, in 2019 there were 22824 PAs from the #1 spot in the lineup. This averages to ~761 per team. However, never making it on base will seriously diminish Tater's plate appearances. In 2019, leadoff hitters had an overall OBP of .335. This comes to a total of 255 on-base events for the average leadoff hitter. So I think 1 out of every 9 of those missing on base events will cost an individual player a PA. So we can subtract 28 PA from the 761 an average leadoff hitter would have, leaving Tate with 733.
From here we convert to wOBA. It's .000. That was easy.
We then determine wRAA ((.000^{^wOBA} -.320^{^lg} ^{^wOBA} )/1.157^{^wOBA} ^{^Scale} )x733^{^PA} = -202.7 wRAA
Well there goes the positive RAR we started with. -200.2 RAR

Baserunning

Here's the thing. If you don't get on base, you don't get (or lose) baserunning WAR.
WAIT! That's not true! By never hitting into a double play, Tate can actually come out positive in this component. In 2019, there were 32598 double play situations:

	1--, 0 out	12-, 0 out	1-3, 0 out	123, 0 out	1--, 1 out	12-, 1 out	1-3, 1 out	123, 1 out
Total 2019	9974	2574	798	664	12158	2923	1864	1643
Percent of total PA	.053	.014	.004	.004	.065	.016	.010	.009
In 733 PA	39	10	3	3	48	11	7	6
Total 2019 GIDP	996	248	53	65	1326	434	185	159
GIDP Percentage	.010	.096	.066	.098	.109	.148	.099	.097
In 733 PA	3.9	1	0.2	0.3	5.2	1.7	0.7	0.6
GIDP Value	.411	.565	.777	.961	.224	.429	.478	.752
Final Value	1.608	.551	.162	.245	1.167	.732	.348	.470

Let me explain. I took all double play situations found what percentage each one was of the total season PAs. I then multiplied them by 733 to determine how many of each situation Tate would face in a season. I then took the total of double plays in each situation to average determine the likelihood of a DP in each one. I then multiply that by the number of DP situations our hypothetical potato will be in. Knowing that Tate will never make contact, we know he will also never hit into a double play. Knowing this, every double play an average player hits will add value to Tater's WAR. To determine the negative impact of a DP, you take the run expectancy of the base-out state had the player made just a plain old out (if they don't make an out it gets incorporated in the batting section), and subtract the run expectancy of the base-out state after the double play. One I get those, I multiplied that by the number of double plays Tate hypothetically saved by never making contact. The last thing to do is just add up those values. This gets us to a 5.3 RAR for baserunning!
-194.9

Replacement Level

If Replacement Level Runs = (570 x (MLB Games/2,430)) x (Runs Per Win/lgPA) x PA then 733 PA will be (570x(2430/2430))x(10.296/186516)x733 giving Tater a boost of 23.1 RAR.
-171.8 RAR

Fielding

This last category is the most difficult to determine, and thusly the most controversial. For weeks I've been thinking about how I could capture the damage done to a team by replacing their center fielder with a potato. I tried understanding UZR and DRS, but that stuff is impenetrable. Alas, I came up with an idea. I would use brute force. I will go through every ball hit to center in a team's season, and mark down what I think the outcome would have been had the center fielder vanished as the ball hit the bat. If there's another fielder there to make the play, nothing changes. If there's one not too far away, maybe it changes a little. If there's nobody else in the vicinity, it would change a lot. But first, I needed a team. I settled on the Reds because their outfield was close to average by both UZR and DRS, in 2020 and also in the span of 2018-2020. In addition, the same holds true of their center fielders. I would never have been able to do this if it were not for two things. Firstly, Baseball Savant. The ability to filter for every play to your exact specifications and have video for each of those plays in the list was essential. The second is the 2020 season. There is no way in hell I would go through a full season's worth of balls to the outfield. But in 2020, Reds centerfielders only made 227 plays out there. Much more manageable. Now, I want to warn you as I was doing the list I couldn't shake the feeling that I was being too conservative with my estimates. It felt like I was marking too many would-be-triples as doubles and too many would-be-inside-the-park-home-runs as triples. I only ended up with like four homers which is probably way too little. I tried to compensate and make up for it by stretching it here and there, but I don't think that did much. I'll post the spreadsheet HERE and the Baseball Savant page it's based on HERE, and if anyone wished to re-do the list, I'll be happy to add it in an edit. So here's what I came up with. In 2020, 227 balls were fielded by Reds center fielders. 86 of them went for singles, 22 went for doubles, 3 went for triples. There were no inside-the-park home runs. There were 109 catches made, plus 7 sac flies. This gives opponents a .490 wOBA on balls hit to Reds center fielders. I didn't check it, but I'm going to assume that's close to average. After going through each play one by one, I determined that if there were a potato in center instead of a human, they'd end up with 52 outs, 4 sac flies, 28 singles, 96 doubles, 43 triples, and 4 inside-the-park home runs. If that seems like too little, you're probably right. But this is what I came out with and we're going to go with it. If this were to happen, opposing batters would end up with a .980 wOBA. From here, we treat it the same as we would treat a hitter's wOBA. We determine the amount of opportunities a center fielder would get in a full season. In 2019, center fielders made 20962 plays. That's about 700 per team over a full season. So we'll use the same formula we use to determine batting runs.
((.980^{^wOBA} -.490^{^lg} ^{^wOBA} )/1.1857^{^wOBA} ^{^Scale} )x700^{^{Opportunities}} = 289.3 runs
-461 RAR
Hoo boy. That's quite a number. If we convert it to wins we end up with close to -45 WAR. You'd need three of me to equal the damage this guy would do. If you had Tate in center, you could replace an average right fielder with 1923 Babe Ruth, left fielder with 2002 Bonds, and first baseman with 1927 Gehrig and still come out 5 WAR behind. -45 wins turns a 100 win team into a 55 win team. It turns a .500 team into a 36 win team. Before we even start counting WAR, we assume a 48 win replacement level. This guy knocks all that out on his own, making you start from scratch.
TL;DR -45 WAR. No, don't ever do this.

Alabama Slammers Franchise Report - Year 17: Young, Wild & Free

Welcome back to year seventeen of the Alabama Slammers Franchise Report! Here are the links to the previous versions if you want to catch up (2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031,2032, 2033, 2034, 2035, 2036).
Previous Season Highlights:
Andy Schaffer wins Cy Young
20-year-old Marco Vazquez leads the league in batting average, hits, doubles, and triples
Edgar Sanchez wins seventh straight gold glove
6 players make all-star team
106-win regular season
Lost in NLCS 4-2
Start of Offseason:
As with the previous versions, I’ll list the moves I made, the rationale behind those moves, the season results, and the future outlook.
Here are the salaries heading into the offseason.
\Unless stated otherwise, all players were re-signed to their one-year arbitration estimate*
Departures (non-trades):
Ernesto Bernal
Bernal was discovered by my scout in 2022 and spent fifteen years with the organization. He’s the franchise’s all-time leader in games, at-bats, WAR, runs, hits, total bases, singles, doubles, triples, RBIs, and stolen bases. He’s the greatest player in franchise history and it really hurt to part ways with him, but all good things must come to an end.
He signed a 5/$84m deal with the Rangers, which seems reasonable, and had a solid year. I received a supplemental first-round pick upon his signing.
Drew Romo
Romo looked to be on his way out, so I let him walk as a free agent. He didn’t sign with a team and retired at the end of the season. He played his entire 12-year major league career with the Slammers and was a huge reason we had six Cy Young award winners during his tenure.
Eric Lawrence
Lawrence struggled last year in the majors, so I gave him a season in AAA to work things out. He looks ready for the big leagues again and will be an opening day starter or get traded.
Jeff Hopper
Hopper was excellent during his six years with us, highlighted by his 2035 campaign when he finished third in the MVP voting. He wanted 8/$232m to re-sign, which was too expensive for my tastes, and ended up getting 6/$156m from the Jazz, which is still too expensive for me. I don’t see this contract ending well.
Move #1:
Hired a new trainer.
I heavily prioritize prevention and this guy is good at preventing all types of injuries. Here’s my old trainer.
Move #2:
Slammers Receive: Edwin de la Torre
Diamondbacks Receive: Alex Rivera, Luis Arguello, Mike Dooner, Harold Coppola, Bryn Hill
De la Torre is my third baseman fantasy. He has elite batting potential, above average fielding ability, excellent baserunning, great character, durable injury proneness, and bats from the left side of the plate. I gave the Diamondbacks an assortment of young and talented players, but I would’ve gladly given them twice as much. Guys like de la Torre just don’t exist.
Move #3:
Slammers Receive: Jonathan Hubbard
Padres Receive: Eric Clark
Hubbard might not be anything special to the Padres, but he’s beautiful to me. He’s a right-handed hitter, has elite defensive ratings, doesn’t expect to start, is durable, and has the sparkplug personality trait. I needed a very specific player and Hubbard met all of my criteria. He’ll start against lefties and play a decent amount against righties in an attempt to keep Steve Flores healthy for the playoffs.
Move #4:
Signed Andy Schaffer to a 5/$105m extension.
Schaffer is 26 and just won a Cy Young, this seems like a pretty safe deal.
Move #5:
Signed free agent Tommy Noonan to a 3/$30m deal.
After looking through the available in-house, trade, and free agent replacement options, I decided the best course of action was to roll the dice on Noonan. I’ve seen players bounce back from the Guru before, so hopefully Noonan does just that. If he falls off a cliff, I’ll only owe him $15m after this year.
Move #6:
Added a Dominican Rookie League team.
We haven’t gotten much out of our scouting discoveries, and I think it might be partially due to them spending so much time in the international complex, so we’re adding a Dominican Rookie League team for them to develop in – The Kiev Blue Claws. Don’t ask me why the team is in Ukraine, it’s just what the owner wanted.
I promoted every player from the international complex, and I’ll continue to promote new players as they’re discovered. I’m interested to see how this works out.
Move #7:
Slammers Receive: Chris Joiner
Mets Receive: Joe Poffenberger
Poffenberger was given strong consideration for the starting catcher job this year, but I decided to go with Gutierrez instead. There was no need to keep Poffenberger around in the minors, so I swapped him for a guy that can provide some depth in a year or two.
In-House Moves (Preseason):
Sean Vahey remains on the major league roster after joining during roster expansion last season. He will be a member of the bullpen.
Jose Gutierrez promoted from AA. Will be the primary starter at catcher vs. RHPs.
Bobby McCallum promoted from AA. Will start at first base.
Seung-hwa Kim promoted from AA. Will start in left field.
Bob Banks will slide to DH with the promotion of Kim.
Final Financial Situation:
We have about $34m in available budget room to start the year, so shouldn’t need to make any trades for cash, and we might even complete the owner goal of ending the year with a balance of +$23m. He’s been hounding me about that one for a while.
Here are the salaries heading into the season.
Move #8 (Part 1, Part 2):
Slammers Receive: $14m
Slammers Lose: Chris Dearborn, Nate Holston
Turns out we needed some more cash. Holston is a career minor leaguer, but Dearborn might have a real MLB future. I’ve seen too many players with his profile flame out though, so I’m willing to take the risk he doesn’t amount to anything.
Season Outlook:
This is the most excited I’ve been about a season in a while. It’s always fun to cruise to 100-win seasons with established teams, but we’re going with the youth movement this year. Our five through eight hitters have a combined zero days of major league service, so I’m really trusting my scout that these rookies are ready to perform. The pitching should remain elite, so if the young guys come through, we should roll to another division title.
Batters:
Primary Lineup vs. RHP and vs. LHP when Healthy (\DH enabled in both leagues, lineup vs. RHP shown below)*
RF – Marco Vazquez
Vazquez cooled off a bit at the plate as compared to last season but upped his defense to boost his overall value. He made his second all-star team and won his first gold glove.
CF – Wil Mireles
Mireles had another excellent season but will be leaving as a free agent. He wants 8/$256m to re-sign, which is too much for me.
2B – Edgar Sanchez
Sanchez continued his march towards the hall of fame with another great year. He made his third all-star team and won his eighth gold glove.
DH – Bob Banks
Banks moved to DH this year, which should be the least taxing position, but missed about a month to injury. When healthy, he performed below his usual standard. Hopefully, he gets back on track next year.
LF – Seung-Hwa Kim
Kim had a solid rookie year and will be back for a sophomore campaign. He’s 26-years-old but still looks to have a lot of untapped potential.
3B – Edwin de la Torre
De la Torre had a monster rookie season, winning rookie of the month in September and taking rookie of the year honors. He’s 21-years-old, so should be around for a long time.
1B – Bobby McCallum
McCallum started off the year on a crazy hot streak. He won rookie of the month in April and June and was on pace for 65 home runs and 167 RBIs. He cooled off tremendously as the season progressed but was still good enough to finish third in the rookie of the year voting.
C – Jose Gutierrez
I feel pretty good about my decision to go with Gutierrez at catcher. He played great defense and was league average at the plate, which is all I could ever ask for. As an added bonus, his personality trait was revealed as sparkplug.
SS – Steve Flores
Flores came back from a year-long injury and played great. I would love to keep his defense around forever but it’s probably better to go ahead and move him before he gets injured again. I have a solid replacement in Eric Lawrence.
Bench
C – Danny Wells
Wells has been pretty much the same player since he debuted in 2032 but I’m ok with that. As long as he continues to play excellent defense, he’ll stick around.
IF – Justus Evans
Evans had a pretty good five-year run for a guy that used to be a pitcher. I have plenty of in-house replacements though, so he’ll leave as a free agent.
IF – Jonathan Hubbard
I brought in Hubbard to replace the fragile backup, so of course he got injured. He missed a month with a separated shoulder but did what was asked of him when healthy.
OF – Andy Vera
Vera is overqualified to be a bench player, but I have an excess of outfield talent and he’s the worst of the bunch. He might get a shot to start in center field next year with Mireles departing.
Replacements
IF – Chris McClain
It’s a good thing I kept the fragile backup middle infielder around. He filled in for Hubbard for a month and didn’t kill us.
OF – Mike Honeycutt
Honeycutt filled in for Banks and was pretty good in his limited opportunities. Depending on the rest of the roster, he might get a backup role next year.
Pitchers:
Pitching Staff when Healthy
SP – Corey MacDonald
I took the pitch count off MacDonald since his injury proneness was upgraded to iron man and he continued to stay healthy. He played well and made his seventh all-star game.
SP – Gilles Palacios
Palacios had one of his best seasons yet, winning the pitching triple crown and collecting his fourth Cy Young award. He wants 7/$245m to re-sign, but I’m going to try to find a way to bring him back. More than likely, I’ll have to sign him in free agency.
SP – Andy Schaffer
Schaffer decided to take it easy after winning a Cy Young last year and getting a contract extension. Hopefully, he goes back to his Cy Young ways next season.
SP – Eddie Copping
I had strongly considered a long-term extension for Copping in the offseason but I’m glad I held off. He struggled this year, posting his worst season yet. I think he’ll be fine going forward, but I’m much less worried about his performance without a long-term deal.
SP – Bobby Butler
Butler might not be done as a major league starting pitcher, but he’s done with the Slammers. He suffered a partially torn UCL in spring training, then suffered an eight-month setback in August. Hopefully, he still has some trade value when he returns.
RP – Alan McCarter
McCarter has been getting worse the last two seasons, but I’ve kept him around for his prankster personality trait. I’ll try to find someone in the offseason that’s also good at baseball.
RP – Tommy Noonan
Noonan isn’t the world beater he used to be but he’s still a really good reliever. I’m glad I brought him back.
RP – Jose Macias
Macias was solid for the second straight season and will be back next year.
RP – Sean Vahey
Vahey had a tough start to the season but established himself as one of the best relievers in the game by the end of the year. He’ll probably be around for his remaining five years of team control.
RP – Jose Aguilar
Aguilar once again performed like one of the best relievers in baseball, making his fifth all-star game. He has two more team friendly years on his contract, so will definitely be back.
RP – Mike Bentley
I was browsing through player profiles about halfway through the season and did a double take when I got to Bentley. All of a sudden, he had an 80-grade changeup and wanted to be a starter, which definitely wasn’t the case last year. I kept him in the bullpen until rosters expanded, then let him work as the sixth starter the rest of the season. He did well in his five starts and will be a member of the rotation next year. Hopefully, I can still sign him to a cheap extension.
Oh yeah, he also won reliever of the year.
RP – Steve Hixson
Hixson wasn’t as good as last year but he’s cheap and durable, so I’ll probably bring him back.
RP – Jonathan Kelsey
It’s always nice to have an iron man reliever that’s capable of competently starting 31 games. He moved to the rotation when Butler was injured and gave us 190.1 solid innings. Unfortunately, he’s an upcoming free agent, so probably won’t return.
Replacements
RP – Chris Larkin
Larkin was called up and given Kelsey’s bullpen role when Butler was injured. He wants to be a starter, but I don’t feel comfortable with his movement, so he’ll remain in the bullpen or get traded next season.
RP – Joe Cope
A 32nd round pick in 2032, it took Cope a while to figure things out in the minors, but once he did, he rose quickly through the system. He was called up when rosters expanded and struggled in limited appearances, but I think he’ll be one of the best relievers in the game in a year or two.
RP – Mike Blake
Blake was also called up when rosters expanded, and he pitched well in his three appearances. He looks like he could be a solid starting pitcher, but I have better options ahead of him, so he’ll have to take a bullpen role in the majors.
Season Results:
We didn’t do our usual raping and pillaging during the regular season but still won 104 games and took our eighth straight division crown. The Cardinals actually took the lead from us at game 130, but we took it back thirteen games later and pulled away late. The pitching continued to be dominant and the offense was amongst the league best. Other than Butler, we’re fully healthy going into the playoffs and will go with a playoff rotation of Palacios, MacDonald, Schaffer, and Bentley. Copping and Kelsey will move to the bullpen.
Our first-round opponent is the 94-68 Rockies. Their 3-5 hitters (Eric Zuniga, Noe Renteria, Robby Teeter) are terrifying, but they don’t have much pitching. We should be able to take this one.
Divisional Series Game 1, Rockies Win 5-3 – We played well overall but couldn’t overcome Renteria’s four RBI performance. Three players had solo home runs in the loss.
Divisional Series Game 2, Slammers Win 5-4 – MacDonald gave up four runs but the bullpen provided 3.2 scoreless innings to hold on for the win. We had fourteen hits in the contest and Sanchez led the way with two RBIs.
Divisional Series Game 3, Slammers Win 6-4 – New starter Mike Bentley had a great outing, striking out eight while giving up two runs over six innings. Banks led the way on offense with three RBIs.
Divisional Series Game 4, Slammers Win 8-1 – Schaffer pitched a gem, going seven scoreless innings and striking out nine. Everyone chipped in on offense en route to fourteen hits and eight runs.
Divisional Series Game 5, Slammers Win 12-8 – We knocked out their starter in the first and continued to pile on in the 12-8 victory. Kim led the way with two homers and three RBIs, winning series MVP.
Next up is the 101-61 Cardinals, led by young ace Eddie Salinas. They have a deep and balanced roster, so I could see this going either way. The winner should take the World Series.
NLCS Game 1, Slammers Win 6-4 – The rookie McCallum put the team on his back with a three-home run, five RBI performance. MacDonald gave up four runs in his second straight appearance, but Aguilar and Noonan closed out the game with 3.1 scoreless innings.
NLCS Game 2, Slammers Win 10-3 – It was Banks putting on his superman cape this time, with a four RBI performance. Bentley gave up two runs over 5.1 innings.
NLCS Game 3, Slammers Win 3-2 (12) – This one was close throughout, but a bases load walk by Kim in the top of the twelfth provided the game deciding run. Schaffer, Aguilar, Noonan, and Macias combined to allow two runs over twelve innings.
NLCS Game 4, Slammers Win 2-1 – Palacios came out on top in a pitcher’s duel and we swept the series. McCallum was named MVP, mostly off of his game one performance.
We’re once again facing off against the Red Sox in the World Series, and this should just be a victory lap. They have a very good rotation (Jorge Morones, Bobby Dibble, Rob McDowell, Josh Sheppard) but no one worth mentioning on offense. It’ll be a major upset if we lose this one.
World Series Game 1, Slammers Win 8-2 – We started off the series with a bang, getting home runs from McCallum, Banks, and de la Torre. MacDonald gave up two runs over 6.2 innings and Aguilar closed out the rest.
World Series Game 2, Slammers Win 7-4 – The Rookie Kim led the way with a pair of two-run homers. Then Bentley struck out eleven and gave up two runs over six innings.
World Series Game 3, Red Sox Win 3-1 – Red Sox ace Morones shut us down in the loss, but we can win the series without seeing him again if we win two of the next three.
World Series Game 4, Red Sox Win 9-7 – We were on track to win this one before a complete meltdown by Macias and Noonan in the eighth. They gave up a combined five runs in the inning and the offense couldn’t bail them out in the ninth.
World Series Game 5, Slammers Win 6-2 – We really needed this win. MacDonald and Vahey combined to hold them to two runs over nine innings and Banks led the way on offense with three RBIs. We’ll head back home and look to close out the series.
World Series Game 6, Slammers Win 14-5 – This one was close until a nine run explosion in the fourth inning put the game away. Every starter other than Kim had at least one RBI. The Red Sox first baseman won series MVP in the loss, but we’d much rather have the title than an individual award.
We’re really starting to roll now, as that’s our third title in six seasons! The young guys came through when it mattered and will hopefully lead us to many more titles in the future.
Here are the rest of the playoff results and MLB standings.
Top Prospects:
The top prospects list continues to be in flux, as we promoted three players and traded another three from last year’s edition, but we still have a lot of good players.
1.) Hector Ruiz
Ruiz was an honorable mention the last two years because I don’t trust international amateur free agent signings, but I’m ready to buy the hype now. If he can stay healthy and reach his full potential, he’s a 10 WAR player. He’ll begin next season at AA.
2.) Victor Lacayo
I’m starting to get some serious mileage from these international amateur free agent signings, as that’s how the top two players on the list were acquired. Lacayo has monster hitting potential for a middle infielder and could be elite defensively if he gets a slight bump to his range. Worst case, he’ll a great bench player. He’ll begin next year in A.
3.) Jake Maddox
Maddox continued his steady climb through the system and looks just about ready for the majors. Depending on what his ratings look like at the start of next year, he might make the opening day roster.
4.) Chris Joiner
I had a trio of guys last year that I thought were in line to take Justus Evans spot, but the acquisition of Joiner probably ended their major league chances. He plays above average defense at three positions, has the potential to be an elite hitter, and has excellent baserunning skills. He’ll begin next season on the opening day roster.
5.) Felix Lopez
Lopez could probably fill the role Joiner will take next year, but he’s still young, so I’ll give him a year in AAA to round out his skills. I like everything about him but his range, so hopefully that improves next year.
6.) Chris Overcash
Overcash looks ready for the majors but I don’t have a place for him, so he’ll start next season in AAA. I’ll get him some experience in left field, and he’ll be first in line as an injury replacement.
7.) Gabe Depass
If Depass had durable injury proneness, he’d be top two on the list. He’s a great talent but you can never put too much faith in a pitcher with normal injury proneness. He’ll start next season at A.
8.) Brad Cole
Cole is a very interesting player. Other than his outfield error, he has everything you’d want in an outfield prospect, so I’m hoping that improves next year in A. I was able to scoop him up in the sixth round since he was listed as a pitcher coming out of the draft.
9.) Nate Bianco
Bianco’s movement still hasn’t improved, so I’m starting to cool on him a bit. He performed well in A- though and will begin next season in A+.
10.) Chris Brown
Rest in peace Chris Brown. If he makes it back from his torn UCL, he’ll be restricted to bullpen duty.
Honorable mentions:
Andy West, Bob Larson
I usually don’t include players like this on the list, but these two curiosities have very interesting ratings profiles and dominated the competition in A. They’ll both begin next season in AA and I’m hoping their ratings catch up to their production.
Eric Whittington, Israel Lopez
Both of these guys were listed as starters coming out of the draft, but I’ve put them in their proper roles as relievers. Between the two of them, I’m sure one will make the majors.
Sam Leintz
Leintz can’t stay healthy, so he’ll probably get traded. Too bad, since I used a first-round pick on him last year.
Promoted to MLB:
Bobby McCallum, Seung-Hwa Kim, Jose Gutierrez
Future Outlook:
We have some tough decisions this offseason with Palacios’s upcoming free agency and logjams in the infield and outfield. Eric Lawrence deserves to start, as do a number of minor league outfielders, but we also have a lot young entrenched starters in the majors. I’m not sure yet how I’ll build the roster, but these are good problems to have. It’s not a question of how we win, but how do we win the most. Hopefully, we can push towards 120 wins next year.
Here is the budget and salaries heading into the offseason.

mlb batting averages by count video

Visit ESPN to view 2020 MLB player stats. To qualify, a player must have at least 3.1 PA/game. Statistics are updated nightly Visit ESPN to view 2020 MLB stat leaders. MLB has enhanced its code of conduct pertaining to harassment and discrimination, has set up an anonymous hotline for those with information about sexual Interestingly, the expected batting averages compare extremely well with those calculated by Palmer in his World Series study, with two notable exceptions: the 0-2 count and, once again, the 3-0 count. Palmer's study indicated a .198 BA for hitters passing through the 0-2 count; the Markov process indication, .160, is considerably lower. League Year-By-Year Batting--Averages Table; Year Tms #Bat BatAge R/G G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB; 2020: 30: 618: 28.0: 4.65: 1796: 37.03: 32.87 The official source for sortable MLB player and team stats, including customizable splits and filters. Explore MLB stats and league leaders on FOXSports.com. When a player is behind in the count the averages drop considerably. In 2004, he was the minor league batting instructor with the New York Yankees. Served two separate tours of duty as the Yankees batting coach from 1993-1995 and from 2002-2003. MLB Numbers In 2 Strike Counts. 2000 ~ .192 2008 ~ .190 2009 ~ .187 As you can see from the above statistics, the percentage of two strike at bats is rising over the years, as the batting averages in those two strike counts are dropping. What Does This Mean For A Youth Baseball Player? Hitting with 2 strikes is hard to do, even for MLB players. A player needs 3.1 bats, or appearances at the plate in each game of the season, to qualify for a Major League Baseball batting title. With a standard season of 162 games, each player vying for the MLB title is required to make 502 plate appearances. Players who walk and do not swing the bat are still awarded with an appearance at the plate. Batting splits by counts, a complete year end summary of how the top 10 hitters from the American and National Leagues fared in each of the 12 possible counts hitters can find themselves in. These particular stats have valuable information for coaches and hitters, as they show a definate seperation betweeen success and strugling, clearly defined by the pitch count.

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MLB All-Time Batting Average Leaders (1871-2019) - YouTube

Plz like and subscribe This video shows the all time batting average leaders in the MLB from 1871 to 2019 ::::: Music: True Routes [Original Mix] by D!NAMO is licens... Best batting average stats players MLB - Line Bar Chart Race 2011 - 2019 - Duration: 1:31. Data Race 203 views What is a good batting average in MLB? The league-wide batting average has generally ranged between .250 and .275, and players with batting averages above .3... This tip is for anyone whom cant do well on Legend.I believe that people struggle on the higher difficulties due to the shear speed of the pitches. I found ... This video shows the all time batting average leaders in the MLB from 1871 to 2020. Ted Williams hits a walk-off home run as a member of the Boston Red Sox during the same season he would finish with a .406 batting average. Listen to Mathematics Professor Martin Jones explain how baseball has become specialized, meaning lower batting averages. Jerry Florez lists from memory Major League Baseball's Top 20 Highest Batting Averages Join us on this special lesson where you will learn how to calculate slugging percentage, how to calculate batting average, and how to calculate on base perc...

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This is part 3 of my "How much WAR would ________ get?" series. You can find How much (negative) WAR would I accrue playing on a Major League team for a full season? here and How much (negative) WAR would a potato accrue playing centerfield for a Major League team for a full season? here.

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1. He has to play for fuckin ever

2. He has to be durable.

3. He has to play a premium position and play it well.

4. He will need to be an athlete.

5. He will probably need to be a Righty.

6. He will need to be on a good hitting team, probably in a big market.

7. He will probably be a 3 true outcomes hitter (and a really good one, duh).

8. He will get all the awards.

9. He is going to be an all around good guy who never takes steroids (or never gets caught).

10. He cannot pull a Pujols.

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This is part 2 of my "How much WAR would ________ get?" series. You can find How much (negative) WAR would I accrue playing on a Major League team for a full season? here.

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mlb batting averages by count video

mlb batting averages by count top

MLB All-Time Batting Average Leaders (1871-2019) - YouTube