NFL Week 4 Picks from the Get Paid: Fantasy, Gambling and DFS podcast
Finally, we're into the "lock" portion of the year. So far Brad is 20-18-2 and Sean is 15-16-2. That's nothing to get excited about, certainly, but this follows normal trends. Lock picks have hit at 67.5% the last three years and they run from weeks 4 through 16. Minnesota +7 @ LA Rams - Brad Rams, Sean No Bet B:W NY Jets +7.5 @ Jax - Brad Jax, Sean NYJ B:W, S:L Mia +9.5 @ NE - Brand/Sean: No Bet Philly -4 @ Tenn - Brad: Philly, Sean: No Bet B:W Hou +1 @ Indy - Brad/Sean: Indy (LOCK) B:L, S:L Buffalo +10 @ GB - Brad GB, Sean No Bet B:W Det +3 @ Dal - Brad Dal, Sean Det (LOCK) B:L, S:W Cin +6 @ Atl - Brad/Sean: Cin (LOCK) B:W, S:W TB +1.5 @ Chi - Brad Chi, Sean TB (LOCK) B:W, S:L Sea +3 @ Arz - Brad Sea, Sean No Bet B:W Cle +3 @ Oak - Brad Oak, Sean No Bet B:P NO -3.5 @ NYG - Brad/Sean: NO: B:W, S:W SF +10.5 @ LAC - Brad LAC, Sean No Bet B:L Bal +3 @ Pit - Brad/Sean: Bal (Lock) - B:W, S:W KC -5 @ Den - Brad/Sean: KC
It’s not us. Bill Simmons is mailing it in this NFL season.
I’m not alone on this sub in feeling that the NFL discussion on the BS podcast has been at an all time low this year.
First, the week-to-week take consistency has been all over the place. (e.g. give Cam a $100mm contract, Tua flip-flopping, Cardinals Super Bowl)
The other problem is that most of his takes are just weird / bad. From this week alone, he said that Bucs / Bills is the most fun Super Bowl, which is about as strange a take as I can find. Why exactly is that more fun than, idk, Rodgers-Mahomes??? Never mind, his irrational Tom Brady hate where he refuses to acknowledge that Brady is playing well.
All the above is garden-variety BS annoyances that occur every season. What’s new this year and throwing gasoline on the fire is it’s becoming obvious that Simmons isn’t doing his NFL homework. How many fanbases here feel like he really knows your team in any meaningful way? I’m a Green Bay fan and I can go ahead and tell you that his GB takes have been about as bad as any this year. It's not just watching games either: how many NFL interviews / player quotes / stories is he really following? That part, I would say has declined to near zero. Keeping with Green Bay for example, Pat McAfee’s Aaron Rodgers Tuesdays is basically required watching if you are going to discuss the team. I might even argue that those interviews are required watching for pretty much any serious NFL fan as the insight Rodgers gives is unlike anything I’ve ever seen from a star athlete. McAfee’s interviews are everything Simmons wanted his KD podcasts to be, but weekly, with a more interesting athlete, and during the season. Do we think Simmons has even watched one? BS has one of the largest podcasts out there and instead of engaging with the NFL himself, he has to have others like Peter Schrager come on and fill him in on what’s happening in the league. I just don’t get it. Is it so much to expect that Simmons be a part of the NFL discussion himself? Where BS has turned this year in lieu of insightful NFL conversations is gambling. I’d say 95% of the NFL conversation on his podcast is about gambling.
Guess The Lines analysis has been reduced to Sal saying the actual line, Simmons saying, “That line is too [low/high].”, and the two of them moving on to the next game.
Million Dollar Picks is even worse. I'd liken it to someone setting their fantasy football line-up on a podcast. It's just awful. At least last year, we had Mallory’s Most Intriguing which covered the actual games / storylines.
tl;dr: Simmons isn't following the NFL this year and it shows on the podcast. He uses gambling as a crutch instead of talking about real things occuring in the league.
Way-too-soon Ringer Predictions 2027: Who Says No?
What will the Ringer look like after the last pick swap from the James Harden trade? Some predictions below: By the time the last pick swap from the James Harden trade happens in 2027, this is what the Ringer will look like: After years of dodging the IRS, Ryen Russillo is podcasting from extradition-free, tax-free Vanuatu After a public falling-out with Chris Ryan at the Sundance premier of Rango 2, Sean Fennessey leaves The Ringer for substack Binge Mode is six hundred episodes into Dragonball Z After losing millions in a Nigerian Prince scam fronted by Malcolm Gladwell, Bill is forced to write a NFL book that is mainly listicles of contradictory gambling advice. The book is an immediate New York Times best seller Shea Serrano receives the Presidential Medal of Honor for his role in making San Antonio into America's literary hub. Bill coincidentally ranks the Medal of Honor outside his Top 11 Awards list Recent college grad Zoe Simmons takes Liz Kelly's job, prompting a thinly-veiled Ringer Union tweet about nepotism. The tweet gets six likes Bill and Chris Ryan kick off 2027 with the fourth Re-Heat podcast even though The Rewatchables still hasn't done Goodfellas The continued demolition of sports media outlets forces The Press Box to have Jackie MacMullen talking about the reporters she and Bob Ryan hung out with at that one steakhouse in Boston every week With Red Sox, Patriots, and Celtics rebuilding, Bill gets really into the New England Revolution of the MLS and the Boston Cannons of the MLL David Chang announces opening of Las Vegas location of his sports basports book concept Any Given Wingsday. The weekly Open Mic Night is a loss leader for the restaurant Kevin O'Connor leaves The Ringer to become the GM of the NBA G League's Maine RedClaws. His first acquisition is Tyrese Halliburton, who hasn't been mentioned any Ringer podcast since February 2020. Chris Ryan, Mallory, and Bill team up for anthology podcast called Only Children Exist Nephew Kyle is widely considered to be at the forefront of the podcast editing avante garde, drawing frequent comparisons to Orson Welles and Donald Fagen Joe House gets two more shows based on Bill's secondary interest: House of (Sports) Cards with occasional co-host Ben Simmons and L.A. Strolling, in which House powerwalks around the City of Angels
I’m seeing a lot of misinformation about Wentz on this sub, so I thought it would be useful to provide some clear, concise, unbiased, data-driven information about Wentz’ contract and play this season. Hopefully this helps users be more informed about the situation when forming their opinions.
- - - - What is left on Wentz’ contract? - - - - -
For simplicity, I will be rounding off all the numbers. Here is a breakdown of Wentz’ contract. There are three main elements to understand about his contract: his yearly salaries, his signing/option bonus, and his upcoming roster bonus. Salaries: 15M in ‘21, guaranteed. 22M in ’22; most of this guarantees on March 19, 2021; the rest guarantees at the start of the ’22 season. Salaries in '23 and '24 are not guaranteed. Guaranteed salaries cannot be removed from the cap via a cut, but can be removed from the cap via a trade, as the new team takes on the salaries. Signing/Option Bonus: 33M. The actual money has already been paid, which means there is no way for the Eagles to remove it from their cap(s). Currently, the cap charges are spread out 9M/9M/9M/6M over ’21-’24. If Wentz is cut or traded after ’20, all of this money goes onto the ’21 cap. Likewise, if he is cut or traded after ’21, the remaining money (24M) goes onto the ’22 cap. There are ways to spread it out over two years instead of one, but no matter what happens, this 33M is going on the Eagles' cap eventually. Roster Bonus: 10M, guaranteed, paid on March 19, 2021. The Eagles can remove this from their cap by trading Wentz before this date (the new team pays it instead). If he is on the roster on this date, or cut, this 10M counts on their ’21 cap. Wentz does not have a roster bonus in ’22. If the Eagles keep Wentz in '21, his cap charge is 34M. Finally, Wentz is scheduled to make an additional 26M in each of ’23 and ’24, but since none of that money is guaranteed, it’s not relevant to the current cap situation. If Wentz is traded or released, all that money goes poof.
- - - - What happens if the Eagles trade or cut Wentz? - - - - -
It depends on when it happens. Scenario One: If Wentz is traded before March 19, 2021, he will have a dead cap hit of 33M in ’21, slightly less than his cap charge if they keep him (the actual difference is about 800k). He will be off the books in ’22 and beyond. Scenario Two: If Wentz is traded after March 19, 2021, but before the season starts, he will have a dead cap hit of 43M in ’21. He will be off the books in ’22 and beyond. Scenario Three: If Wentz is traded after the ’21 season, he will have a dead cap hit of 24M in ’22. He will be off the books in ’23 and beyond. Scenario Four: If Wentz is cut before March 19, 2021, he will have a dead cap hit of 49M in ’21. He will be off the books in ’22 and beyond. Scenario Five: If Wentz is cut after March 19, 2021, but before the season starts, he will have a dead cap hit of 59M in ’21. Also, Howie Roseman will be publicly executed for his crimes against the Eagles salary cap. Scenario Six: If Wentz is cut after the ’21 season, he will have a dead cap hit of $39M in ’22. He will be off the books in ’23. NOTE: There are ways to spread out these cap hits over two seasons instead of one. There are also ways to restructure Wentz’ contract prior to a trade, which would change these numbers. For simplicity, I’m not going to cover all those scenarios.
- - - - What is Wentz’ contract for an acquiring team? - - - - -
It’s important to understand that Wentz' contract is far more palatable to any team that acquires him via a trade, since that team would not be responsible for his signing/option bonus money. An acquiring team is only responsible for his ’21 salary, his ’22 salary (because it guarantees in '21), and his ’21 roster bonus (assuming the trade is made before March 19, which is likely). That means they would be paying Wentz 25M in ’21, and 22M in ’22. Those are very affordable numbers for a decent starting QB; for comparison, Carolina will pay Bridgewater 23M next season. Cousins’ cap number is 31M next season. Brisett is eating 21M while sitting on the bench this season, and the Colts guaranteed 25M to 39-year-old Rivers. Further, if the trade works out, an acquiring team could keep Wentz for around 26M in ’23 and ’24, with none of it guaranteed. Those are attractive numbers. Essentially, an acquiring team is gambling 47M on Wentz. If it works out, they have him on a very reasonable contract for four years. If he plays at '18-'19 levels, his contract would be around market value. If he plays at '17 levels, he would be a bargain, especially in '23 and '24 when the cap will be much higher.
- - - - How badly has Wentz played this season? - - - - -
I will be using statistics from Football Outsiders. The relevant statistics are DVOA and DYAR. DVOA “represents value, per play, over an average quarterback in the same game situations.” DYAR “gives the value of the quarterback's performance compared to replacement level, adjusted for situation and opponent and then translated into yardage.” In other words, DVOA is value per play, and DYAR is total accumulated value (basically DVOA times the number of plays). I will be rounding numbers for simplicity. Rankings are out of the number of QBs who threw at least 200 passes in the given season. These numbers are for passing only; Wentz does add some value with his running, but it’s not a huge amount (average around 40 DYAR per season). Here are Wentz’ numbers for the past four seasons: 2017: 24% DVOA (ranked 6/35), 1047 DYAR (8/35). 2018: 8% DVOA (13/34), 545 DYAR (14/34). 2019: 0% DVOA (20/34), 476 DYAR (17/34). 2020: -38% DVOA (33/34), -831 DYAR (34/34). How about some context? Here are the QBs over the past 10 seasons who posted -30% DVOA or worse. Yes, that’s an arbitrary cutoff, so be it. 2016 Goff: -75% (rookie) 2018 Rosen: -54% (rookie) 2011 Gabbert: -47% (rookie) 2012 Quinn: -44% 2019 Haskins: -42% (rookie) 2014 J.McCown: -42% 2020 Darnold: -41% 2014 Bortles: -41% (rookie) 2020 Wentz: -38% 2018 Allen: -36% (rookie) 2013 Weeden: -36% 2017 Kizer: -35% (rookie) 2012 Skelton: -35% 2014 Griffin: -34% 2020 Smith: -33% 2011 Painter: -33% (2nd year, first year starting) 2013 Pryor: -32% (2nd year, first year starting) 2011 Ponder: -32% (rookie) 2012 Cassel: -30% Only two of those players, Goff and Allen, ever had productive seasons afterwards. But only three of those players, Wentz, Smith, and Griffin, ever had productive seasons beforehand. Smith is 36 years old and coming off a catastrophic injury, so he’s not a great comparison. The best comparison is Griffin, who was excellent for a rookie in 2012 (17% DVOA), got injured and became average in 2013, and has barely seen the field since 2014. Other than that, it’s hard to find adequate comparisons for Wentz. It’s unprecedented for a productive 5th year starting QB to suddenly become this bad, this fast. Outsiders wrote about this here, so please read that article if you want more comparisons. I’m going to stray from my unbiased, data-driven approach for a moment. One thing I’ve noticed on this sub (and the internet in general) is that while everyone realizes Wentz has played poorly this season, a lot of people don’t seem to grasp just how poorly he’s played. A common opinion seems to be, “it’s one bad season, he can bounce back.” And while that is possible, I think it’s important to understand that this is not a routine bad season. Through 12 games, Wentz was on pace to break the all-time record for negative DYAR in a season, set by Josh Rosen. The only players who have seasons this bad are rookies, veterans who are over the hill, and random back-ups who end up starting for whatever reason. The vast majority of QBs who play this poorly are never productive starters again. Wentz’ collapse, from proven starter in his prime to this, is unprecedented.
- - - - What will happen? - - - - -
Because Wentz' career arc is unique, it's very difficult to predict his future. It's possible Wentz rebounds and becomes a productive starter again. It's possible he is out of the league in 2023. And of course, every outcome in between those extremes is possible as well. It's important to think about this situation probabilistically. It's fallacy to say, "Wentz will rebound." It's fallacy to say, "Wentz is finished." The truth is we don't know, and even assigning rough probabilities to those outcomes is extremely difficult. As such, it's also difficult to predict what the Eagles will do. As detailed in the contract section(s), Wentz' contract is tradable; a trade helps the Eagles' cap in '22, and his contract his affordable to an acquiring team. The core question behind a possible Wentz trade is this: what is more valuable to the Eagles, the unknown chance that Wentz regains his form, or the known cap space in '22 plus any pick(s) they get in a trade? It's up to Lurie, and/or Roseman, to answer that question.
https://preview.redd.it/xm2rmxgccif61.jpg?width=900&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=727ec6ddc09f8e0ebc58dfbb4bfe5a6e702fff49 We have made it! All 256 regular season and – since this year – twelve playoff games are in the books and there is just one matchup left to decide who will be crowned NFL champions. There are so many storylines leading up to the big game – the GOAT Tom Brady versus the kid Patrick Mahomes, two of the all-time great tight-ends on either side of the ball wearing number 87, the Buccaneers becoming the first ever team to host a Super Bowl in their home stadium, Andy Reid after all this time of coming up short, potentially winning back-to-back titles, while Bruce Arians is looking to finally get his first ring as a head coach and potentially becoming the oldest one to earn one in history, and many others. As I do every year, I wanted to give a detailed look ahead to the big game, where I break down who these teams are, kind of how they got here and how they match up against each other. To do so I put together analysis of each offense and defense, plus where each could have the advantage, then I take a look back at when these two teams first met back in week 12, explain what they have and/or should have learned from it, give you an X-factor on either side of the ball for both and finally hand out my score prediction, while explaining what I believe will happen. Let’s dive into it!
Buccaneers offense vs. Chiefs defense:
The Tampa Bay offense has been transitioning throughout the season. Early on it was Bruce Arians’ system with a lot of 12 and even 13 personnel, trying to establish a gap-scheme power run game and taking play-action shots off it from under center. And then a second offense was kind of implemented, which was more suited to what Tom Brady was used to in New England, where they spread the field and attack defenses with the quick game. However, it really was two separate playbooks almost, that they worked in. I think we have seen a little more of a symbiotic relationship, which I believe Byron Leftwich has had a big role in putting together. They motion their backs in and out or use their receivers as pre-snap coverage indicators at a much higher rate, letting Brady be surgical in the quick passing game, but still attacking vertically and using Gronk and the tight-ends as that extra in-line blocker to get enough time, because Brady still more than enough juice in his arm to push the ball down the field. Since week ten, Cameron Brate has also played about 41 percent of the snaps and I believe he gives them more versatility in what they can be from two tight-end personnel, since he can basically be a big slot for them. Their receiving corp as a whole offers a lot of versatility, whether it’s Mike Evans moving more into the slot this season, Antonio Brown being able to line up at any of the receiver spots or specialists like Scotty Miller to attack down the field. https://preview.redd.it/ydhdh09bbif61.png?width=751&format=png&auto=webp&s=2130b984b7228140b0a17d05759752e7a8a09a87 It’s a well-established narrative that if you can get to Tom Brady early, he becomes a much less effective passer and if you look at the five games, that they have come up short in 2020 (Saints twice, Bears, Rams and Chiefs), they have lost the battle up front offensively. Since their week 13 bye, following their last loss to Kansas City (including the playoffs), they have gone undefeated whilst averaging 34.3 points per game, with at least 30 in all three postseason battles. Looking at those games in particular, the defense was dominant at New Orleans and set up scoring opportunities directly, but against Washington and Green Bay, they completed a combined 11 passes of 20+ yards. So it is still very much about the big plays through the air (finished top three in 20+ and 40+ yard passes), but the efficiency of this offense has really gone up to a different level. At Detroit they were so dominant that Brady sat out the entire second half, then they scored on all but one of their possessions against Atlanta and now over this three-game road playoff run, they have had only three combined three-and-outs and turnovers in each of them. A big key to that has been the Bucs offensive line keeping Brady clean, as he has gotten sacked only 11 times over their active seven-game win streak and just once in all but two of those contests. To go with having better solutions to beat the blitz in their system. https://reddit.com/link/lcn8vq/video/5o8inlufbif61/player Unlike a lot of modern NFL offenses, that have incorporated more RPO elements and try to create numbers advantages in the run game with spread sets, Bruce Arians still brings that old-school flair with multiple tight-end sets and the power run game. There’s not a lot of wide zone blocking, but rather they create vertical movement at the point of attack with a heavy dose of duo, get those big offensive linemen on the move on toss plays and then I love watching those receivers get involved as blockers in the box – especially Chris Godwin, who they seriously have leading up in the hole or trapping three-techniques. When they run play-action off those looks, they use a lot of seven- and eight-man protections and try to hit defenses over the top, whether it’s deep crossers and posts or straight go routes down the sideline. As much success as they have with that recipe, when you look at the analytics, their tendency to run the ball on early downs shows there’s plenty of improvement in terms of efficiency, which is something I want to see them do in this game, to not get behind the chains and allow the Chiefs defense to be as creative on third down. When they go into shotgun and spread the field more, they look for ways to attack the middle of the field with their inside receivers primarily and when they see one-on-one on the outside with Mike Evans or Antonio Brown, they will take their shots. Double-moves are a large ingredient to what they do, especially out-and-up routes. For the Chiefs defense, they looked like they had carried over that momentum from last year’s Super Bowl run into 2020, not giving up more than 20 points in any of their first four games. In week five, the Raiders out of nowhere exploded for 40 points and handed them their only loss outside of week 17, when they rested several starters, before having three more great showings at Buffalo, Denver and then hosting the Jets. But since then, they have allowed at least 24 points in six of their final eight games. Part of that negative turnaround was the injuries they have had in the secondary and the lack of takeaways (one per game). The biggest piece however has been their inability to keep teams out of the end-zone when they got close. Looking at the whole regular season, no other team has allowed their opponents to create a higher rate of their red-zone trips into touchdowns (74.1%). That’s why so many of their games stayed close deep into the fourth quarter, which I’ll get to more in a little bit. When you look into play-calling, you can see that they played a lot more zone-coverage and rushed only four or five, because they simply didn’t have the guys their could trust to cover in man. Outside of one game, where they felt like they had a great feel for the opposing route-patterns, which I’ll get to soon. https://reddit.com/link/lcn8vq/video/kab5kwvkbif61/player Yet, once again, that unit has stepped up in the postseason and the two things that stand out to me are defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo’s brilliant game-planning and their ability to stop one-dimensional offenses. When I look at what they did against the Browns, if you take away one 23-yard burst from Nick Chubb, Cleveland’s elite running back duo was held to 78 yards on 18 carries, as Spagnuolo gave their opponents a lot of looks that they didn’t want to run into and then had a safety drop out of the box late. Then in the AFC title game, to take away Buffalo’s dynamic passing offense (which ranked top three in all major categories), they played a lot of cover-two and two-man, where their DBs pressed the hell out of the Bills receivers and then they played a lot of different versions of those two-high shells, like invert cover-two or bringing Tyrann Mathieu down as the MIKE in Tampa-two basically, which forced Josh Allen to hold onto the ball. What I can promise you is that they aren’t afraid of bringing heavy pressure and then having their coverage defenders well-schooled in the concepts they should focus on taking away primarily while the Honeybadger is often allowed to move pretty freely as the robber. Frank Clark hasn’t quite lived up to his contract, but he has had big moments in the playoffs these last two years, Chris Jones is one of the most disruptive interior D-linemen in the game, who they can move all over the line, and they have several big bodies they can rotate through to stay fresh and eat double-teams.
Chiefs offense vs. Bucs defense:
As much as we all love the Kansas City offense and we see them as this unit that blows us away with flashy play-designs and throws over the top, they have really been alternating their approach over the course of the season as well. When you go all the way back to their season-opener against the Texans, you see that they used more of a West Coast and RPO-oriented attack to punish a defense that played a lot of soft zones and invited them to throw the ball short. However, two weeks later at Baltimore, they were destroying the Ravens’ single-high safety and man-coverage principles by letting their speedy receivers streak down the field and call double-moves at 15+ yards of depth. Then three weeks after that, when they found themselves in a rainy setting at Buffalo against a soft interior run defense, they pounded the ball 46 times for almost 250 yards on the ground. So they have shown the ability to adapt to their opponents. However, with several injuries on the offensive line – most notably a turnstile at left guard and those two tackles, which will now both be out for the Super Bowl – and opposing defenses taking the approach of using a lot more split-safety looks and trying to take away the big play, they have turned back into being more methodical in their plan and putting together long drives. In the AFC Championship game in particular, with Patrick Mahomes coming off a turf toe injury, their gameplan and drive charts look almost like what they used to with Alex Smith, in terms of the West Coast designs and those glance or slant routes on the backside of RPO concepts. https://preview.redd.it/ymqekb5nbif61.jpg?width=900&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=61bc935642ddc713da5a866d8bc8fea123ea1dbf When you look at this KC offense, they have had large stretches of getting static in games and as great as they are at moving the ball between the 20s, they are only 14th league-wide in red-zone touchdown percentage (61%). Some people may not realize this, but since their week eight blowout win over the Jets, they had not won a game by more than six points until the AFC title game. That is due to a combination of tendency to start slow, their poor red-zone efficiency and the inability to run the ball consistently with all the movement they have had on the O-line, having rushed for 135+ yards just three times all season. With that being said, Darrell Williams has been a big factor as a power runner these playoff and rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire should be back to full health. In addition to that, they find other ways to put the ball in the hands of their skill-players quickly, using the speed of their receiving crew on bubbles and speed sweeps, to go along with well-designed longer-developing screens, such as the double swing-fake and then middle screen to Travis Kelce. They also use their star tight-end quite a bit on those power shovels in short-yardage situations and I believe their most effective run play is the speed option, because of the way Mahomes can manipulate that end-man at the line. https://reddit.com/link/lcn8vq/video/eopgbempbif61/player While I have seen them run anything from 23 personnel to going empty with Kelce detached from the line (so basically a five-wide situation), there are a few things the Chiefs love to run. Their go-to formation is a three-by-one set with Kelce as the single receiver, mostly flexed out wide, but also in-line. In 2019 they ran three verticals from that trips side and then had Kelce on a shallow crosser over and over again. This year they still run it quite a bit, but they let the tight-end run more corner or curl routes, to allow inside receivers from the other side attack the middle of the field and isolate their backs against the linebackers, in addition to running power that way. And then they motion someone like Tyreek Hill or Mecole Hardman across, which for the most part gets opposing defense to move into two-high coverages and play off. So if KC runs either one up the seams, there’s usually a ton of space underneath. The two things that take this offense to the next level however, are trick plays and off-script production. What makes Andy Reid and Eric Bienemy great is not only their ability to exploit defensive schemes, but they are so creative and don’t shy away from throwing reverse passes, underhand shovels to their fullback or digging up tape from the 1948 Rose Bowl. And then there’s all the thing Mahomes can do off script. That guy is so slippery to extend plays while continuing to look downfield and his pass-catchers are so adept at adjusting on the fly and finding the open areas, especially that sixth sense-like connection he has with Kelce. I have been higher on the Bucs defense for pretty much the entire year, which was really up and down for them as a unit. They have had moments of dominance, like keeping three straight opponents to under 50 rushing yards each or holding Green Bay’s number-one ranked offense to just 10 points in their regular season meeting, but they also gave up a combined 72 points in their first two meetings with the Saints and got lit up for over 450 yards through the air when hosting these same Chiefs back in week 12 (I’ll analyze that matchup in detail in our next segment). During this playoff run however, they have really stepped up in big moments to get them to this point. Whether it’s forcing four turnovers at New Orleans or sacking Aaron Rodgers five times and making a historically great red-zone offense settle for a couple of chip-shot field goals at Green Bay. When you look at their duo of edge rushers, Shaq Barrett is tied for the lead-league in QB hurries (24) and only three players in the NFL (all DBs) have forced more turnovers than Jason Pierre-Paul (six). Then they have the most dynamic linebacker tandem in all of football, which are heavily involved in their pressure packages and make it nearly impossible to get outside the tackle box in the run game, and now with Vita Vea back in the lineup, they have a wall on the inside that nobody can run on consistently. That’s how they finished the regular season as the clear number one run defense in the league. The secondary has been the problem child at times, especially when defensive coordinator Todd Bowles has put them in pure man-coverage, but by moving their safeties around more to bracket and help in certain areas of the field, they have really improved in that department. https://reddit.com/link/lcn8vq/video/meu60dlrbif61/player Bowles is an aggressive play-caller by nature and they have created a lot of problems for opposing offenses by bringing one more than you can block (blitzed on 39% of plays). It has bitten them in their behind at times as well, but from what I have seen on tape, they have been more strategic in how they use it. Especially on third downs, I love how they have used their safeties as moving pieces, having them key on certain areas of the field or defending the sticks. In the NFC Championship game for example, one of the biggest plays of the afternoon was that Aaron Jones fumble at the start of the second half, when the Packers thought they had defeated the man-coverage with a shallow crosser to Jones whilst picking the underneath coverage, but Jordan Whitehead raced up from the other side of the field and jarred the ball loose just as the RB tried to turn upfield and convert on third down. That willingness to drive on routes is also apparent when they run quarters coverage and you see Whitehead and rookie Antoine Winfield Jr. break on the ball, looking to take somebody’s head off, while they are also heavily involved in their blitz packages. That combined with those guys coming off the edges, Ndamokung as a bully on the inside and a pretty unknown contributor in William Gholston has them ranking in the top five in sacks, pressure percentage, turnovers and tackles for loss.
Examining the first matchup:
Like I already mentioned, these two teams met back in week 12. The Chiefs jumped out to an early 17-0 lead in the first quarter, with Tyreek Hill racking up over 200 receiving yards over those 15 minutes already and the Bucs offense having just one combined first down over the first four possessions. Kansas City was in the red-zone once more mid-way through the second quarter, but a Shaquille Barrett strip-sack gave Brady & company the ball with some life and they were able to go on the board. That really got things to click and they fought their way back to being down only three, despite a couple of interceptions for Tampa Bay’s QB killing drives, because after scoring a touchdown on their initial try for the Chiefs, the Bucs defense really stepped up and held their opponents scoreless the rest of the way. However, Mahomes and Hill were able to run down the final four minutes and close the game, not giving Brady’s troops another chance, as they were coming off consecutive TD drives at the end, to secure a 27-24 victory. While the Chiefs certainly took their foot off the gas pedal and tried to run the ball more, which KC outside of what Mahomes did, rushed for only 59 yards on 16 carries, I really thought this was a breaking point for Tampa Bay as a team. The offense started finding a groove and the only two drives that didn’t result in points from that final first half possession on, ended in picks. The defense on the other hand adjusted what they were doing in coverage and held that explosive KC attack to just ten points through the final three quarters. So while I think the result may be a little deceiving and the Chiefs could have easily won by double-digits, I look back at this as more of a launching pad for a team that has been the best in the NFC from that point on and now represents that conference in the big game, with a chance to learn from their early mistakes. Here are a few things that really stood out to me when they first met: When you look back at the ridiculous first quarter Tyreek Hill had at Tampa Bay, what really stands out is how much he was left one-on-one in coverage, often times with Carlton Davis, who has had a good season in general, but is a bigger corner who ran in the low 4.5s at the combine – no way can he keep up consistently against the fastest man in football. Davis did follow Tyreek for the most part, in particular when he was the single receiver or the #3 in that trips set with Travis Kelce soloed up on the opposite side. And the Chiefs did a great job of creating those one-on-ones with motions, where they moved Kelce in line or forced Davis to trail Hill, when he came across the formation from that trips alignment. Tyreek’s two long touchdown came on a subtle double-move after they motioned Kelce in and then on a streak across the field as the #3 from trips. That opened up the middle of the field later on for Kelce on hook and dig routes. Something else Kansas City did in the first half particularly was using more 12 and even 13 personnel than I had seen from them all season long. They still couldn’t run the ball a lick out of those sets, but they were effective in the passing game when used, especially chipping both those guys off the edges for Tampa, with one of the TEs and the running back. https://reddit.com/link/lcn8vq/video/8b7dchqzbif61/player Tampa Bay called a lot of passing concepts with five-man protections early versus Kansas City bringing an array of blitzes (18 on 42 drop-backs). Especially on third downs, they were able to create at least one free rusher and then they had one or two defenders bailing out to take away the middle of the field. However, the Bucs made some very effective adjustments in the second half with hot-route to defeat those blitzes and putting that “bail defender” I will call it here in a bind, with a seam and spot route underneath for example. Of course the Chiefs still got two interceptions off Brady, that stopped promising drives, but when you look at what went wrong on those plays, first Ronald Jones overset to the outside trying to pick up Tyrann Mathieu off the edge, which led to an underthrown deep ball by Brady that was brought in by Bashaun Breeland along the sideline, as Scotty Miller got pushed out wide on his release, and then Mathieu got an INT of his own, as Mike Evans didn’t recognize the pressure and the ball went off the helmet of a blitzing Daniel Sorensen. In general, they were able to get the ball out quickly – especially to their tight-ends – to take advantage of limited resources in coverage and on the final two drives, when KC brought heat almost every single snap, they were punished for it.
What each team can take away:
A couple of adjustments that I already saw in the first meeting or that I would like to see for each team would be: For the Bucs, the one thing I want to see most is using more dummy counts to show pressure pre-snap and give Brady a clear picture. Whether they try to block it up with the tight-ends and backs in protection or alert the hot read, the more information they can get from a Spagnuolo defense that prides itself on disguising pressures and coverages, they more adept they will be at defeating those. Once they do that, this could turn into a chess match, where the Chiefs show something different intentionally to make Brady kill the original play and then have to pull the ball down anyway, as the picture changes once the snap is off. And something else they should take advantage of is isolating what is a below-average group of linebackers in the passing game. Their RB core isn’t overly impressive in terms of their receiving abilities, especially when you look at the amount of drops we have seen from Leonard Fournette, but maybe they dig LeSean McCoy out more for this matchup and see if he can win on option routes and Tampa actually put AB in the backfield a couple of times in the backfield in their prior meeting, only they ran him downfield on wheel routes. Defensively I already saw some stuff that I really through quarters two to four, in terms of using their safety tandem to bracket Hill and Kelce on a lot of snaps and on key downs in particular, forcing the ancillary pieces of that offense to beat them. I will mention one of my X-factors and his role in how that “gamble” could end up in the next segment, but those two guys accounted for 55.5 percent of Kansas City’s total passing yardage. So it’s certainly a chance worth taking and if you go with a game-plan, where your two stand-up guys on the second level are more involved in covering space underneath, as Tyreek may be utilized as more of a decoy that runs off the deep coverage, you can eliminate a lot of yardage after the catch, since teams that rush four and play coverage have been the ones giving the Chiefs some issues at times. However, that doesn’t mean that I don’t want the Bucs to not use their linebackers as blitzing threats. They should try to cover up the open gaps with those guys and create one-on-ones across the board, to enable their edge rushers to dominate against KC’s backup tackles. And something the Browns against them a few times, which I really liked, was rushing four or five, but not giving up assets in coverage, as they had somebody drop out to replace those blitzers and still create a free rusher. https://preview.redd.it/enx2gsi8eif61.png?width=800&format=png&auto=webp&s=1de643c848aefd212231c5e7a3059c580c0967b7 On the Chiefs’ side, I really liked the plan of chipping those two guys off the edges, as I already discussed, with an extra tight-end on the field, and while they are a spread-oriented offense, they had a lot of success when they used 12 personnel and threw the ball out of those looks. Because you can’t cover the whole field and have to take away what Kansas City sends vertically, those TEs and backs are often times all by themselves as they release into the flats. If that happens, like it did in their prior meeting, Mahomes has to take the free yardage and open up the deeper areas of the field again, as the Bucs have to re-adjust. The other thing I can tell you for sure is that the Bucs are obviously terrified of Tyreek burning them deep again and I’m sure there won’t be many chances to just attack their corners in man-coverage for big plays. So if they give Hill a lot soft cushions, they have to repeat what did to the Bills’ Tre’Davious White in terms of getting him the ball quickly on smoke routes and forcing those guys to tackle their electric receiver. While vertical prowess has to be used as a decoy, in terms of putting him in the slot of those three-by-one sets and having him run up the seam, while you attack underneath that. If you get Mecole Hardman one-on-one with their third-best CB on a post-corner route, while the flanker runs a hitch or square-in to bind the guy on the outside, that could be free money. When I switch to defense, they had a ton of success bringing the blitz and not allowing Brady to step into throws. I would certainly say they were happy with that game-plan and they have reason to feel confident in the guys they have on the back-end, with the way they have showed out so far in the postseason. However, I have now talked about this at length and the Bucs have watched that tape over and over again. There is no way, those guys will be as ill-prepared to counter those pressure packages as they were back in November. Hell, Brady was dicing them up in the fourth quarter and I just detailed how those two picks came about. So Steve Spagnuolo can still bring the heat in certain situations and test Tampa Bay in their ability to pick up the blitz, but he has to be more strategic in how he uses it. The second thing to consider here is how you mask those linebackers, when you decide to utilize them more in coverage. Those players can be very effective as downhill thumpers in the run game, taking on pulling guards and filling holes, but they aren’t great in space. The Raiders in their two matchups against Kansas City had a lot of success attacking that area of the field with crossing routes. Chris Godwin and Gronk would be guys for that task, so maybe if you have them to one side, the opposite linebacker is the one you blitz and you bring down Sorensen or Mathieu to replace him in that hook-area, while looking to pick up anybody working across the field.
I’m not going to give you a name like Scotty Miller here, because at this point, he is more likely to catch at least one deep ball than not. Ronald Jones’ health will be key as well, to give the Bucs that physical one-two punch out of the backfield. However, I’m going with their starting right guard Aaron Stinnie, who just got his first two starts of the year during these playoffs. The Bucs O-line has been dominant over the course of this seven-game win streak, like I already mentioned, holding opponents to just 11 sacks combined in those games and an average of 115 rushing yards during these playoffs, despite some tough competition. Alex Cappa was one of the road-graders on the interior for Tampa and only missed three total snaps throughout the regular season, before fracturing his ankle mid-way through their Wildcard game at Washington. Stinnie has since stepped since then and played pretty well, but he was also responsible for the only sack on Brady in the NFC Championship game at Green Bay, when Kenny Clark went right through him on a bull rush. Well, the challenge will not get any easier, as I’d expect the Chiefs to line up Chris Jones in the B-gap as much as possible and try to exploit that matchup, on passing downs in particular. That’s why it will be crucial for Tampa Bay to stay ahead of the chains, unlike they did in the first matchup, and slow the rush down a little bit. Good thing Stinnie is lined up in-between arguably the top rookie right tackle of 2020 in rookie Tristan Wirfs and one of the better centers in Ryan Jensen, who will be looking to land a rib-shot on the guy over Stinnie, on the snaps that he is uncovered for. As for the Bucs defense, that whole group of corners will have to step up in a major way, as they hope to slow down this explosive KC passing attack. Obviously, Carlton Davis’ name will come up a whole lot early on during the broadcast, as Tony Romo and Jim Nantz show what Tyreek Hill did to him early on in that week 12 meeting, and I could see Hill be matched up with Sean Murphy-Bunting in the slot a whole lot as well, but since I expect the safety to that side to keep his eyes constantly on him, when he lines up inside and makes it easier to bracket to some degree. Instead, I’m looking at Jamel Dean, who primarily is Tampa Bay’s field-side corner, unless they have Davis travelling with the opposing team’s number one receiver in certain matchups, which I wouldn’t expect, as the Bucs coaches go back to the tape of that first matchup. If Todd Bowles is smart – and from what I’ve seen from his as a coach, as much as aggressiveness may have hurt him at times, he is – he will build on what they did in the second half of that last game, when he used his two safeties to bracket Hill and Kelce almost every snap and forced the rest of that receiving corp to beat them. That puts the spotlight on guys like Sammy Watkins if they line him up more at Z, Demarcus Robinson and others, as those guys will pretty much be one-on-one with Dean. While the coverage numbers would indicate otherwise – in part because he draws the easiest assignments – to me he is the weakest link of this secondary and has been highly vulnerable to double-moves. The Chiefs might be burn him once more on Sunday. https://preview.redd.it/tof7xfc4cif61.png?width=800&format=png&auto=webp&s=acd57311d38bd8217491b102f927017514a6b1bd
Chiefs – Andrew Wylie & Juan Thornhill
I thought about going Sammy Watkins here for the Chiefs offense, because he hasn’t suited up for them since week 16 and he hasn’t caught at least five passes in a game since week three, but averaged almost 100 receiving yards during last year’s playoff run. And you should also get accustomed with who wears number 48 for them, because Nick Keizer may have only caught six passes through the regular season, but he has become KC’s TE2 on the depth chart, playing just over a quarter of the snaps, and he could have a key role as an extra protector or chipping those edge rushers. Instead, I’m going with KC’s new starter at right tackle, who was slotted in at RG for all but one game so far. With blindside protector Eric Fisher unfortunately tearing his Achilles late in the AFC title game, Mike Remmers – who originally replaced Mitchell Schwartz on the right end of the line – is now switching sides and Andrew Wylie is sliding one spot outside. And he will face a tough task, after only having started one game on the edge against the Saints and now getting a heavy load of Shaq Barrett, who primarily rushed off that side. Let’s see if Wylie has the quickness in his kick-slide to counter Barrett’s speed and if the latter can get him on a dip-maneuver, like he beat Eric Fisher for a strip-sack on when these two teams last met. Steven Wisniewski will step in at Wylie’s original spot, but he has been one of the most dependable veteran linemen of the last decade in my opinion. Defensively, I’m looking at the guy who missed Kansas City’s Super Bowl run last year, after an excellent rookie campaign. Their secondary was the star of the show against Buffalo, to send them to the Super Bowl, by disrupting route patterns at the line of scrimmage and not allowing receivers to separate late. A big reason they felt comfortable doing that was their safety tandem, with Tyrann Mathieu being in more of a robber role and dropping down in Tampa-2, to go along with the rangy Juan Thornhill, who broke up four passes and nearly picked off two of them. Steve Spagnuolo has those safeties doing a ton of late rotations, bailing Daniel Sorensen out for two-high shells, Honeybadger turning into a freely roaming robber and often times Thornhill ending up as the deep middle safety. As a single-high defender, he makes it almost impossible to push the ball down the hashes and he has the ability to make plays outside numbers. That will be crucial against all the deep balls Tampa Bay attempts and if one of those corners loses Mike Evans or Antonio Brown off the line by lunging in press, he could be the guy who decides if there will be a 40+ yard gain or maybe even an interception, if Brady puts too much air under the ball and tries to give his receiver time to track it. I can’t wait to watch that chess game between the Chiefs’ second-year safety and the ultimate student of the game in Brady, who will try to manipulate him with his eyes and body language, in order to keep the defender away from where he wants to go with the ball.
Prediction:
On paper, the Bucs have the better and healthier roster at this moment. You look at the offensive line in particular, where they still have four of their day one starters, while the Chiefs’ only full-time starter at his original position is center Austin Reiter and they will have two guys at those tackle spots, that have barely never played there for Kansas City. In terms of pass-catchers, it’s hard to argue that you could put anybody above the Chiefs group of track stars, but you don’t need a full hand to count off the teams that you would put ahead of the Bucs. There is also a pretty clear advantage on the defensive line for the home team, when you look at them being top three in pressure percentage, while KC is outside the top ten. And while I would give the Chiefs the nod in terms of the back-end, seeing how they have stepped up so far this postseason at full health, the Bucs’ group has made plenty of plays to take them to the Super Bowl and linebacker is not even a competition, watching Devin White and Lavonte David fly around the field. And of course, they have the number one rush defense, while the Chiefs rank 21st, and they are both average at running the ball themselves. Schematically, Tampa certainly has to make some adjustments, as I have already discussed in length, having solutions for the blitz packages Steve Spagnuolo will throw at them and not allowing the Chiefs two main weapons to beat them. Right now, I give the clear advantage to the reigning champs when it comes to the coaching staffs and as great as Brady has been for two decades now and the how clutch he has been on the game’s biggest stage, we may be witnessing the one guy, who has a chance of dethroning him one day as the GOAT. Spags has a proven track record of success against Brady and I’m sure Andy Reid and Eric Bienemy have been in the lab, cooking up new things to throw at the Bucs defense, figuring out ways to score points all four quarters, but in the end it comes down to Patrick Mahomes being able to make plays nobody else in football can. Shaq Barrett and JPP could have a field day against these two backup tackles and I think Todd Bowles will also have a couple of things up his sleeves that the Chiefs haven’t seen, but last year’s Super Bowl MVP is the ultimate equalizer. He will shake out of a sack and find Kelce for a huge third-down conversion and he will have another like twelve-step drop and fire a deep ball off his back-foot to break Tampa’s neck. https://preview.redd.it/njt5v586cif61.png?width=800&format=png&auto=webp&s=2c20c0b875bf0f9fb7d19841500f93ec8ad78f42
Chiefs 34 – Bucs 28
So give me the Chiefs here and I’ll take the chalk with Mahomes earning MVP honors, winning back-to-back titles and setting the foundation for a potential dynasty in Kansas City. If you enjoyed this breakdown, I would really appreciate if you could visit the original piece! Also make sure to check out my video on the ten biggest questions heading into Super Bowl LV!
The Broncos are 9-2-0 all-time (5-1 at home) against New Orleans and have not lost to the Saints since 1994.
Noah Fant needs 16 receiving yards to become the first Broncos tight end to reach 1,000 yards for his career by his 26th game.
Brandon McManus needs one 50+ yard field goal to set a new team single-season record.
TEAM CONNECTIONS
Broncos Head Coach Vic Fangio began his NFL career in New Orleans and served as linebackers coach for the Saints from 1986-94 where he coached the famed “Dome Patrol”, one of the greatest defensive groups of all-time.
Saints WR Emmanuel Sanders appeared in 78 games (77 starts) with the Broncos from 2014-19 and was a member of the Super Bowl 50 championship team.
Saints Defensive Coordinator Dennis Allen served as defensive coordinator of the Broncos in 2011.
This thread is specifically geared toward Broncos fans. Sort by new for the most recent comments. Pick your flair in the sidebar. Subscribe to /denverbroncos
The Broncos are 54-66-0 (Away: 19-40-0) all-time against the Kansas City Chiefs and have lost 10 consecutive games against their AFC West rival.
Bradley Chubb needs 2.5 sacks to reach double-digit sacks for the second time in his career.
Brandon McManus has made the most 50+ yard field goals (7) in single-season Broncos history and ranks second in the NFL in 50+ made kicks through Week 12.
TEAM CONNECTIONS
None
RANDOM THOUGHTS
Sin Nombre is a tremendous piece of film. Cary Joji Fukunaga is a genius.
I would like to beat the Chiefs. Unpopular opinion, sorry.
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Drew Lock threw a career-best four touchdown passes and recorded the third-highest quarterback rating (149.5) in Broncos history against Carolina in Week 14.
Denver’s offensive line has used five different offensive line combinations in 2020 and has allowed 25 sacks (1.9 sacks per game) this season. Since allowing 13 sacks in Weeks 2-3, the Broncos rank tied for third in the NFL in sacks allowed (12) and sacks allowed per game (1.2).
KJ Hamler totaled a career high 86 receiving yards and two touchdowns on just two receptions. Hamler became the 10th rookie wide receiver in NFL history to record two catches, two touchdowns and at least 80 receiving yards in a single game.
Justin Simmons has recorded four interceptions through 13 games in 2020. His 15 career interceptions are tied for the second most in Broncos history by a player through his first five seasons. Simmons needs one interception to become the second Bronco to record 16 picks during his first five seasons with the team (since 1970).
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If Trey Lance is drafted in the top 2 rounds then the GM deserves to be fired on the spot (an analysis)
I'm sure I've have angered some of you and I do understand why and I get how much talent Trey has but humor me for a few paragraphs then chew me out after? The first problem for me is that he is a one year starter in FCS. Not many QBs over the last nearly 20 years have found success after a one year starter stint in college let alone one year starter in FCS making the pro jump.
Historical Context Since 2002, 16 QBs have been drafted that were only starters for a single year. Combined they've passed for 53,850 yards, 312 TDs, 253 INT and two Pro Bowl Appearances. The top five passers from those 16 are:
Matt Cassel (never even started in college): 17,508 yards Mark Sanchez: 15,357 yards Mitch Trubisky: 10,092 yards Brock Osweiler: 7,418 yards Matt Flynn: 2,541 yards And those guys played in Power 5 conferences (SEC, PAC 12, ACC). In all fairness none of them have the athleticism of Trey and maybe Osweiler is closest in terms of arm strength.
Evaluating His Game Ok so he has exactly 17 games (16 in 2019 and the 1 in 2020), across those games he threw the ball just 317 times while running 184 times. Again what worries me is the low amount of passes, roughly 19 attempts per game. Compare that to someone like Kyler Murray, Lamar Jackson or Jalen Hurts. Lamar and Kyler threw the ball 430 and 377 times while running 230 and 140 times in fewer games than Trey their final years. I wanted to figure out how he processes the game so I watched everything I could of his 2019 season and came up with these observations:
-Lives on the first read -Great arm, trusts it -Plays like a measured Johnny Manziel, sometimes if first read isn't there use athleticism to make something happen -Very slow going through progressions -Finds success in passing game with defenses trying to contain him ala RG3 -Can drop the ball right in the bucket when facing zero pressure -Inconsistent at leading receivers -Panics and improvises vs sub par pass rushes -Refuses to step up into the pocket -Will stare down forever -Great ball carrier in space -Benefits from strong play action system -Very late on throwing to a wide open receiver
One of first throws were against an all out blitz, he had a man running wide open and overthrew him while being hit. Problem is the rush wasn't getting home the LB just hit an open hole, he had the opportunity to slide left and still make the throw but didn't. After that was a play fake with pressure from his right. Again he could have easily step left and up into the pocket but his eyes were glued to the first read and rusher just forced the ball out. Another pass was a man running a deep corner riyht. There was a good outside rush and instead of checking down to a shallow crosser going left, he stayed on the first read and eventually threw a bad incompletion. There were some plays where he did begin to maneuver the pocket but threw behind the receiver on a relatively easy pass. Play action fake from the end zone, everyone was covered and the rush was on and he forces a pass, needs to learn to throw away. It's clear he trusts two things: his arm and his athleticism, but refuses to throw away. The pick was just getting caught doing what he does. Play fake, stares down the first read on the seam and gets it picked. He needed to lead the pass but underthrew it. I could break down the entire game but in essence the panic was there, he threw behind the receiver, he stared down and the defense was prepared for it all.
Conclusion Trey Lance is a great athlete with a great arm and decent accuracy. The problem is he doesn't know how to go through progressions, he's more comfortable on the run out of the pocket throwing one on one rather than standing in the pocket and making reads. He can hardly handle an FCS pass rush and we're expecting him to handle and NFL one. He's about as raw as one can be. I never agreed with the assessment of Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen being really raw, they had problems that needed to be tightened and tweaked sure but they were no where near the rawness of Trey Lance. He has the arm and athleticism to succeed but the style he plays just won't translate, he'll get chewed up and spit out without the proper coaching staff and environment. He's a multi year project who won't be ready after a few weeks riding the bench. He probably shouldn't see the field his rookie year and get as many VR reps as possible.
When we factor in the best QBs to play one year as a starter are Matt Cassel, Mark Sanchez and Mitch Trubisky coupled with the fact he played in the FCS it's too big a risk. The gamble is too large to take him in the first or second round. Really the only place he should go would be San Francisco or Minnesota with two great coaches (Shanahan and Kubiak) to teach him the pro game. I think on a mental level it would be irresponsible to take him high given how much work he needs. There are many fine QBs that will be available after the Big 3 are gone. Mac Jones and Kyle Trask are fine options. If you want a project take Kellen Mond, a four year SEC starter who's completion % has gone up every year and who is good at not turning the ball over. He has a fine arm and good athleticism, his mechanics need some work but I think he would already be in a higher chance to succeed than Trey Lance.
A long-winded argument for why the Eagles should draft a QB at 6th overall
Be warned: this is not a short post. In my opinion, one of the best articles written about the Eagles’ selection of Jalen Hurts came from Pro Football Focus: Jalen Hurts wasn't a good pick by the Philadelphia Eagles — he was a great one. While much of the article talked about how highly PFF valued Hurts as a prospect, part of their argument was that the selection of Hurts gave the Eagles optionality at the most important position in football. Even with Wentz as the presumptive starter, having a cheap, potentially high-level fallback option in Hurts in case of injury, regression, or other factors gives the Eagles an additional avenue to elite QB play. As much as I appreciated this article’s arguments, I very much disagreed with it. At the time, Wentz was locked in as the QB1, having come off a season where he had led an undermanned Eagles team to a divisional crown, just months after signing a 4 year, $133M extension that would have kept him under contract through 2023. And given the Eagles’ pressing need for skill position talent to supplement an offense that had seriously lacked in it in 2019, I thought that plans A, B, and C should have been to supplement Wentz with quality young skill talent that could grow with him over his prime, as well as offset the inevitable cap crunch in 2021, and the vision for Jalen Hurts’s role within the team didn’t really seem to jibe with that approach. Fast forward nine months... The Eagles’ quarterback situation is a disaster. Carson Wentz’s play plummeted from average/above average to one of the worst starting QBs in the NFL, ranking among the league’s worst in QB rating, QBR, DYAR, DVOA, PFF passing grade, and EPA, among other measures. Jalen Hurts finally entered the lineup in place of Wentz, and despite a good win against the Saints in his first start and being able to generate some decent yards with his legs during his starting tenure (272 yards and 3 TDs in his 4 starts), he didn’t prove to be much of an improvement over Wentz on aggregate, with a lower PFF passing grade, a higher rate of bad passes, and a lower rate of on-target passes than his benched colleague, as well as a concerning 6 fumbles and 3 INTs across his 4 starts. While there are certainly fair reasons that explain both QBs’ struggles (a revolving door OL, a supporting cast desperately lacking in playmakers, questionable playcalling, and for Hurts the growing pains of a rookie in a bad offense) I believe that between Hurts and Wentz, the Eagles don’t really have a clear path to getting elite QB play from what they have on the roster now. Wentz has regressed big time from his 2017 form, and Hurts is still a ways away from developing into a reliable starter, let alone an elite QB, if his 2020 play is any indication. If the 2020 season has made anything clear, it’s how elite QB play is the single biggest asset that can turn a team from bad to good, or from borderline playoff team to contender. Look at the Packers: in 2018-19, Aaron Rodgers had seemingly plateaued at being a solid game manager, but in 2020 he bounced back to the Aaron Rodgers of years past, leading the NFL in passing TDs, QB rating, QBR, PFF passing grade, and DVOA, and giving the Packers the NFC’s #1 seed for the first time in 9 years. Look at the Bills: Josh Allen’s continued improvement to elite status has given the Bills their best record since 1991 and their first playoff win since 1995. Look at the Chiefs, where Pat Mahomes’s continued assault on the NFL record books hasmade the Chiefs the first team to host the AFC title game 3 years running since the Eagles of the early 00s. Not to mention teams like the Titans (where Ryan Tannehill’s continued career renaissance has given the Titans their first AFC South crown in 12 years) or the Bucs (where the Hall of Fame presence of Tom Brady has helped the Bucs to their first playoff berth in 13 years and their first playoff win in 18 years). The simple fact is that the Eagles right now just don’t have that kind of player on the team. But the Eagles have a lot of positional needs. Shouldn’t they use the 6th pick on one of those? The two names Eagles fans will think of right away are WRs Ja’Marr Chase and Devonta Smith. Both would be fine options at 6, and if the Eagles opted to choose one of these two if they were available I wouldn’t have any problems with that. Other names that have been floated with the 6th pick are CB Patrick Surtain II and LB Micah Parsons, and while these latter two names aren’t ones I would prefer, these would nonetheless address key positional needs for the Eagles. But the story of the NFL is still the same: QB play dominates everything else, and if you don’t have a QB, you just aren’t going to be able to contend. The 2021 class is unique in that there are 4 QBs that at this stage are all considered among the top dozen or so prospects in the draft: Trevor Lawrence, Justin Fields, Zach Wilson, and Trey Lance. Only twice since 2000 have 4 QBs been taken in the top 12 of a draft: 2011 (Newton, Locker, Gabbert, Ponder) and 2018 (Mayfield, Darnold, Allen, Rosen). The simple point is that in a situation where the Eagles have no good QB options on the roster, picking a QB is simply the option with the highest upside without incurring any additional downside. Don’t believe me? Well, here are all the WRs picked 6-12 since 2000. You have a first-ballot HOF talent in Julio, and a few solid options in Odell Beckham, Mike Evans, and Plaxico Burress who have all been WR1 types for decent chunks of their careers. But for the most part, the receivers taken in this range haven’t all been the consistent contributors one might expect. By comparison, here are the QBs picked in that same range since 2000. This includes 2 QBs with Super Bowl rings (Big Ben and Mahomes), a current top 3 QB (Watson), a QB that reached elite status this year (Allen), a QB who has become one of the NFL’s most efficient passers in a big-play offense (Tannehill), a couple QBs possibly on the cusp (Daniel Jones and Herbert), and a longtime solid starter (Jay Cutler). Not only does it seem like QBs might have a higher hit rate than WRs around this range, but the payoff of a QB is much higher. We’re talking 6 QBs who have been or will be upper-tier QBs for multiple years, plus 2 QBs who could well get there, out of 13 such QBs. But what if they pick a QB at 6 and it doesn’t work out? The same could be said about any position. What if Ja’Marr Chase doesn’t work out? Patrick Surtain? Micah Parsons? If the Eagles whiff at 6 regardless of position, tough luck. Now, obviously there’s a difference in a QB who isn’t-quite-good-enough vs. a receiver in that situation. A backup QB like Josh Rosen or Matt Leinart doesn’t quite have the same utility as, say, a reserve WR like Ted Ginn or Darrius Heyward-Bey, who could at least fill a minor role. But is that really any better? Furthermore, it’s easier to recoup at least some value from a QB in a trade if it’s apparent that they’re not good enough out of the gate - see the Cardinals dealing Rosen for a 2nd and 5th after a disastrous rookie season + trading Kyler, or (if you want a home run) the Eagles dealing Kevin Kolb for Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and a 2nd. Furthermore, the bar for getting surplus production from the 6th overall pick is significantly lower at QB than there is at any other position, just because QB play is so valuable. But the Eagles already have so much invested at QB already! At some point you have to overlook the sunk cost. Having Fletcher Cox and Malik Jackson didn’t stop the Eagles from addressing their DT depth in a major way by signing Javon Hargrave last year. The Eagles had one of the league’s highest cap hits allocated to WRs entering the 2020 draft, as well as a recent high pick in JJ Arcega-Whiteside, but still selected 3 WRs (including Jalen Reagor with their 1st round pick) and traded for a 4th WR (Marquise Goodwin.) The calculus is very simple: if the Eagles don’t think what they have is good enough, they are going to address it, no matter what happened in the past. Think about the circumstances behind the trade for Wentz: in March 2016, they re-signed Sam Bradford to a 2 yea$35M contract, and added a high-level backup in Chase Daniel a few days later for 3 years/$21M. Yet only 6 weeks later, they would complete the trade with Cleveland that would net them the #2 pick that they would take Wentz with. Certainly, there was some good fortune involved in that they were able to deal Bradford in September to recoup some of what they gave up in the Wentz deal, but the fact is that the Eagles were prepared for all contingencies: maybe giving Bradford the reigns in a stable organization would help him realize his #1 potential, maybe Chase Daniel would prove to be a winning lottery ticket, or (as would eventually happen) Wentz would prove to be NFL-ready from Day 1. Besides, some of the better QB situations in the NFL in 2020 are on teams who addressed their QB situation pre-emptively. The Ravens traded up for Lamar Jackson in the 2018 draft with Joe Flacco under contract through 2021, but Lamar Jackson showed enough as a rookie to allow the Ravens to ditch Flacco’s albatross deal the following season, and it paid off with Jackson winning NFL MVP in 2019. The Chiefs traded up for Pat Mahomes in the 2017 draft despite having a solid QB in Alex Smith under contract for another 2 years. But Mahomes was promising enough to allow the Chiefs to trade Alex Smith after the 2017 season, and with Mahomes under center, the Chiefs have rampaged the NFL ever since. The Cardinals drafting Josh Rosen 10th overall in 2018 didn’t preempt them from selecting Kyler Murray #1 overall in 2019 with Kliff Kingsbury calling the shots. It’s not an apples-to-apples comparison - Wentz is still young enough that he may realize some of the potential he flashed as a younger player, and Hurts is still young enough as a prospect (he’s still just 22 and turns 23 in August) and showed enough big play potential that there might still be a high enough ceiling there, especially with an improved supporting cast. But I don’t think I am comfortable with the Eagles putting all their eggs in those baskets for the short term. Can’t the Eagles just wait to take a QB next year? I have heard the argument made that the Eagles should just roll with Wentz and/or Hurts in 2021, that if Wentz rediscovers his form and/or Hurts improves from his rookie season, that the QB problem will resolve itself, and that even if both falter next year, the Eagles will be drafting high again anyway. There are some possible options for next year: UNC’s Sam Howell, USC’s Kedon Slovis, and Oklahoma’s Spencer Rattler, among others, are all names that could end up near the top of next year’s QB draft class. But this presumes two things: 1) that the QB class next year will be as good as this year’s class, and 2) the Eagles will be very bad again next year. Forecasting draft classes a year out is a finicky exercise in any situation. Hell, we’re still more than 3 months out from the draft - when there are no college games left - and there’s still plenty of opportunity for the prospect landscape to change. Here’s an example of a 2021 mock draft from April 2020. While for the most part the rankings are fairly stable this year, there are still notable differences like Zach Wilson not being listed. If college football goes back to a ‘normal’ season again in 2021, we could see the QB prospect landscape change even more. And that doesn’t even account for underclassmen who may decide to stay in school. There is far too much uncertainty in projecting a draft class 15 months out. As for whether the Eagles will draft high? I don’t believe the Eagles will be good next year. They have a bad core of talent and there’s not very much they’ll be able to do to improve it. But next year the Eagles will have a possibly soft schedule. They’ll have at least 12 games against teams that finished below .500 in 2020, and probably a 13th if the NFL schedule expands to 17 games (the Eagles would likely face the Jets in that situation.) They may be able to scrape out a couple more wins next year than they did this year just based off their relatively soft schedule, and that’s not even factoring in any bounceback years from players who are hurt or any possible QB improvement. Even if they ‘only’ end up winning 6-7 games, that would be enough to push them outside the top 10 of the draft. As the saying goes, a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. If the Eagles feel there is a QB this year that has a good chance to be a franchise talent, they should pounce, not wait until next year. But what if they draft a QB but one of Carson Wentz or Jalen Hurts improves and becomes a quality starter in 2021? Then great! Now instead of having to fret about finding a QB, the Eagles can go into 2022 and beyond knowing they have at least one possible answer at QB for the next couple years (and perhaps longer in Hurts’s case), as well as a possibly high-quality backup, and can plan to build around them. It would be easy to turn around and say that in that case, spending the 6th overall pick on a QB was a waste. But realistically speaking, that implies that we would have known ahead of time that Wentz would bounce back to his 2017 play or that Jalen Hurts would take massive strides as an NFL sophomore. Neither of which seems likely given what we have seen out of them in 2020 - although, granted, not impossible. And even if one of Wentz/Hurts does put together a strong 2021... we’ve seen the fate of the QB position change massively in a season’s time. Did anyone think that Wentz would have been on the chopping block less than a year ago? Having a fallback option of a young QB with franchise upside and top-pick pedigree is never a bad thing. How would this fit into the Eagles’ plans in the future? I don’t think it needs to be said that the Eagles are in a very difficult position from a team building standpoint. As of right now, according to OTC, the Eagles are $51M over the cap, and they will have to make even more adjustments just to get under the cap - and that’s before they try to make any free agency moves. But one way of alleviating that cap crunch - and to open up some cap room in 2022 and beyond - would be to have QB options on rookie contracts. And given the rookie scale more or less guaranteeing that the 6th pick will be paid regardless of who they take, picking a QB might be the more economic option. Take Justin Herbert’s contract as last year’s #6 overall pick. The $26.5M guaranteed to Herbert on his rookie deal is currently the 24th highest guaranteed figure among NFL QBs, and his contract average $/year is currently the 30th highest among NFL QBs. And those ranks will be even lower next year if we see other QBs go higher in this year’s draft + possible new contracts for Lamar Jackson and Mitch Trubisky. Compare those ranks to where such a contract would rank among NFL WR contracts. It would be the 17th highest figure among WRs in terms of total guarantees and 38th in terms of AAV. You are essentially taking the gamble that whatever WR you draft 6th overall would have to be at least an average WR1 or better over the life of the contract in order to provide bang for the buck, whereas a QB that gives you even league average starting QB play would be a major boon from a cap standpoint. Now, I do think that having Wentz on the roster does complicate this scenario, and I think it’s much less likely that the Eagles take a QB high this year if Wentz remains on the roster. And while the 2022 WR FA class isn’t as deep as this year’s, there are some names - DJ Chark, Courtland Sutton, Michael Gallup, Mike Williams, Christian Kirk, for instance - that could be enticing pieces if the Eagles don’t find any good receiving options between now and next year. (Plus, they could always just take a WR later on in the 2021 draft.) What if I think that the QBs this year aren’t that good/Ja’Marr Chase and Devonta Smith are better prospects? You might have noticed that I haven’t really talked specifically about any of the QB prospects that the Eagles could take. I try to take a more agnostic approach to draft prospects, so I am not going to claim to be an expert on any of the players I mentioned. If you don’t think that any of Justin Fields, Zach Wilson, or Trey Lance are good enough to pick at 6 regardless of anything else, then fair enough. Ultimately, this is an opinion piece. You’re welcome to agree or disagree with whatever part of it you want. But I do think that the Eagles picking a QB at 6 is a very realistic scenario that hasn’t really been discussed very much, and when it’s been brought up, it often gets met with scorn. So I wanted to create this post to explain the thought process behind why the Eagles would make this choice, and why I think it’s a good idea. I know it’s not the popular choice, especially with two premium players at arguably the next-most-important position who could be available at 6. But I think it’s a realistic and sensible choice, especially with a new head coach bringing in a new offensive philosophy.
Bob Quinn has been a disaster of a General Manager for the Detroit Lions: a year-by-year breakdown of how Bob Quinn has ruined this team
People that have been on this sub for awhile probably know me as the guy who used to post memes nonstop. Due to a variety of real-life factors (law school) and on-field factors (the absolute embarrassment of a team that Detroit fields on a weekly basis), my enthusiasm for the memes has waned – but I still watch, read about, and otherwise follow the Lions religiously. If any of you guys remember, I have been HIGHLY critical of Bob Quinn during his tenure as general manager – this has not always been a popular opinion but, as I have now turned off the television after watching Dalvin Cook run untouched for a 70-yard TD against ten men on the field, I’ve decided enough is enough. Most people want Patricia gone, and rightfully so, but I’ve seen a number of comments talking about “not minding” Bob Quinn and saying that he’s done an “okay job” - so I’ve decided to analyze Bob Quinn’s draft picks, major FA signings, and general philosophy in one single post. My ultimate goal is to show you that Bob Quinn has been an unmitigated disaster for this team – a man whose tenure has been so horrific that not only have we performed worse in every successive season he’s been the GM, but we’re also left ill-prepared for the (hopefully) post Bob Quinn era. Let’s go year by year. 2016 Major FA Signings Marvin Jones – brought in after the unexpected retirement of Calvin Johnson, Marv arrived and made an immediate impact. This was a very good signing that has paid dividends for almost 5 years now – in my opinion, it’s the best of the BQ era. It was also the only notable signing in 2016. (Grade: A) The Draft Taylor Decker – Decker has had an up and down career up until this point. He’s had some injuries and inconsistent play but, for the most part, has been really good. He was recently signed to a big extension and I’m happy to have him around long term. (Grade: A-) A’Shawn Robinson – His performance ranged from pretty good to mediocre at best during his time in Detroit. Did not get a second contract with the Lions. (Grade: B-) Graham Glasgow – in my opinion, one of the best picks BQ has made. The hometown kid who started day 1 and was a solid guard option during his tenure here. The pick itself was really good, and I’m grading ONLY the pick and not what ended up happening with him afterwards which we’ll discuss later on. (Grade: B+) Miles Killebrew – still contributes on special teams, which is nice, and has returned medium-level value in that department. Had one pick 6 but not much of a defensive presence otherwise. (Grade: B) Joe Dahl – an average at best player whose most valuable trait has been his versatility. Really good value in round 5. (Grade: B+) The rest – Anthony Zettel was a decent player for a while and we took a long snapper (LOL) who didn’t make the team. BQ also took Jake Rudock out of Michigan, stating that “it’s good business to draft a young QB every year or every other year”. This philosophy, that Bob Quinn has since abandoned in favor of signing washed up vets to bloated deals, is one I totally agree with. Shame he didn’t stick to it. Overall this was actually a good draft! Lots of great value and contributors that are still on the team today. The Marvin Jones signing + this strong draft would combine with a brilliant year from Matthew Stafford to get us to wildcard weekend. We lost to Seattle, of course, but look at the stellar draft and great FA signings we made! We’re on the right track, right? Now we just need to upgrade the backfield, because Ameer Abdullah and Theo Riddick are now on years 3 and 4 of YPCs under 2.5, and boost the offensive line. Maybe some pass rush help? Next year is going to be great. I’d give this draft an A-. 2017 Major FA Signings Rick Wagner – with Rielly Reiff and Larry Warford out the door, BQ decided to invest heavy resources in the offensive line. He signed Rick Wagner to the biggest RT contract in the league to kick off his rebuild of this group. Wagner, at his absolute best in Detroit, was average. At his worst, which was much more frequent, his bloated contract hurt the Lions badly. (Grade: D) TJ Lang – I love TJ as a person, as all lions fans do, but there’s a reason Green Bay let him walk. His pro bowl appearance as a Lion was earned on name-recognition alone and does not reflect his play. Injured for most of his tenure, this was another disaster signing. (Grade: D) This class cost us tons of cap space over multiple years and was a masterclass on how not to build an offensive line. I’d give this FA Period a D-. Trigger Warning – The Draft Jarrad Davis – to say that Davis has been anything short of an utter failure is disingenuous. With T.J. Watt and Dalvin Cook, eventual all pros at massive positions of need, on the board – Bob Quinn takes the linebacker out of Florida. The Lions did not pick up Jarrad Davis’ 5th year option this year. The fact that we’re struggling to find playing time for him 4 years into his career, when we have the worst linebacking corps in the NFL, should tell you all you need to know. (Grade: F) Teez Tabor - (Grade: A+) Kenny Golladay – the absolute, hands down, best pick Bob Quinn has ever made. Just an absolute star in every sense of the word – Golladay will likely go down as one of the 3-4 most talented receivers the Lions have ever had. Recently had a conversation with my dad, a life long lions fan, who thinks Golladay can be just as good as Herman Moore was. Just a beast whose only concerns are his age and his hamstrings. (Grade: A+) Jalen Reeves Maybin – Depth (Grade: C+) Michael Roberts – while it might not have seemed like it at first glance, this pick is a microcosm of what the Bob Quinn era has been defined by: a mistake that compounds to put us in a hole later on. I wanted George Kittle, you wanted George Kittle, this whole sub was talking about wanting George Kittle … the entire world knew that the high upside tight end out of Iowa would probably be a good pick for a team with needs at the position – so what does Bob Quinn do? The smartest man in the room takes Michael Roberts out of Toledo. He knew we needed a tight end. He picked the wrong one. Michael Roberts is no longer in the NFL while George Kittle just led the 49ers to a super bowl appearance. (Grade: F) Jamal Agnew – an electric returner and not much else. Cool that he got an all pro … hey, are we going to pick a running back soon? (Grade: B+) The rest – Brad Kayaa lasted one preseason, it would also be the last time Bob Quinn picks a QB. Pat O’Connor looks like Aquaman. This draft alone should be a fireable offense. Jarrad Davis over Watt and Cook set this franchise back YEARS. Teez Tabor, who Bob Quinn proudly stated he had watched more film on than any other prospect in his career, was not an NFL-caliber player. No return on a second-round pick is inexcusable. Michael Roberts might only have been a 4th round pick, but he was the single worst decision Bob Quinn has ever made. Yes, Roberts is worse than Tabor, Wagner, Davis, Lang, Vaitai, James, etc. Bob Quinn looked at Michael Roberts and decided he was a better player than George Kittle. He KNEW we needed a tight end and his evaluation led him to pick Roberts. His failure to secure the future all pro would not only hurt us because we DIDN’T get Kittle, but it forced a massive OVERCORRECTION later on with a certain 8th overall pick. Speaking of overcorrections, how about the eventual scramble to find a franchise RB after failing to take one here? Here’s a list of the RBs drafted in the Lions’ range, so excluding CMC and Fournette, that Bob Quinn passed on: Dalvin Cook, Joe Mixon, Alvin Kamara, Kareem Hunt, James Conner, Tarik Cohen, Wayne Gallman, Marlon Mack, Aaron Jones, Chris Carson. Every single one of these running backs, every single one, would likely still be our primary back today. With the exception of Wayne Gallman, who STILL would have been better than Abdullah, ALL of these RBs are either superstars, stars, or have flirted with star status. This failure to take even ONE of these running backs, the arrogance to stick with Abdullah/Riddick while throwing away picks on Tabor, Roberts, Reeves-Maybin, etc, is incompetence to such a severe degree that that I’m left to ponder Bob Quinn’s mental health. This is so inexcusable, so absolutely mind-boggling, that we’re STILL feeling the effects of this choice in late 2020. Let’s say we take Kamara instead of Tabor or Cook over Davis – what does the Kerryon Johnson pick get replaced with? D’Andre Swift? Do we get actual CONTRIBUTERS in the second rounds of these drafts rather than desperately try to patch up the haunting mistakes of 2017? With Kenny Golladay, and to an indescribably lesser extent Jamal Agnew, the only bright spots here – this draft is absolute nightmare fuel. I would give it a D- overall. The Lions would go 9-7 again but fail to make the playoffs, performing worse than the year prior, and parted ways with Jim Caldwell. Was firing Caldwell the right choice? Yes. He was not a good coach, and we often won in SPITE of his poor game management rather than because of it. 9-7 was NOT good enough on a consistent basis. Did we replace him with the right guy? No, obviously not – but that’s a discussion for another day. 2018 Major FA Signings Christian Jones – the quintessential Quinntricia linebacker. Big, slow, overpaid, and not good at anything. Still a starter for us for some reason. (Grade: D) Devon Kennard – had flashes of good play but overall made no big difference for us in the long run. (Grade: B-) Kenny Wiggins – garbage, not even useful as depth. (Grade: C-) LeGarrette Blount – fat. (Grade: D) This class is pathetically weak and has made no positive impact on the team - Grade D. The Draft Frank Ragnow - the second-best pick Bob Quinn has ever made. A pro-bowl caliber C in the late first round is terrific value. He’ll hopefully be a Lion for a very long time. (Grade: A+) Kerryon Johnson – we all love Kerryon, but this was a disaster of a pick. We traded UP to pick an injury prone, decent running back in a spot where good organizations take FRANCHISE level running backs. If this pick had worked out, D’Andre Swift wouldn’t be on this team right now. Terrible management of valuable assets here. (Grade: D) Tracy Walker – was tremendous as a rookie and very good as a sophomore but has since, unfortunately, slowly regressed. Good value at this spot but still not the star we like to pretend he is. (Grade: B+) Da’Shawn Hand – EXTREMELY talented player but tough to evaluate because he’s literally always injured. This grade could be a D if he washes out due to injuries and an A if he gets healthy consistently, but the jury is still out as of now. (Grade: N/A) Tyrell Crosby – Good value in the 5th (Grade: B+) Nick Bawden – never really played, was always hurt (Grade: D) This was overall an average at best draft – a stud at the top and contributors later are offset by a big miss after a round 2 trade up. The fact that THIS is the return from arguably BQ’s best class, which I would give a B- overall, is just plainly and simply not good enough. Bob Quinn also traded a 6th for Greg Robinson (LOL). Year 1 with Patricia was a disaster after finishing 6-10, but fans were assured that Quinntricia just needed to execute “their vision” and things would turn around. Let’s see what the magnificent Robert Quinn has in store for us now. 2019 Major FA Signings Trey Flowers – Trey is, in my opinion, a dominant player surrounded by trash in a putrid scheme. I genuinely feel bad watching him generate pressure and seal the edge every week only to be let down by the maggots around him. You’d like to see more sacks out of a player being paid like a top pass rusher, but he’s more of an all-around defender than a pure burner off the edge. Good signing as he’s still young and is a foundational piece. (Grade: A-) Danny Amendola – just no longer a reliable option. Frequent drops and a lack of burst means that he’s not the player he once was, but he’s a washed-up former patriot so it’s no surprise he wound up here. (Grade: C) Justin Coleman – was absolutely transcendent, like I’m talking all-pro level, in the first half of 2019. Has since regressed to average/below average level of play. As the highest paid slot corner in the NFL, this is terrible return on investment if his play doesn’t improve. (Grade: C+) Oday Aboushi – fat. (Grade: D) Jesse James - words cannot begin to describe the stupidity of signing a backup-level tight end to a big deal only for him to fail miserably as blocker while racking up less than 20 catches in his career here. Just a miserable, miserable, miserable signing. (Grade: F) CJ Anderson – fat. (Grade: D) Aside from Flowers, this class was another disaster. Bob Quinn loves to hoard cap space so that he can waste it later on bums like these. Overall grade C. Let’s see if he’ll address our massive needs (coverage LB, WR2 of the future, pass rush or overall D Line help) in the draft. The Draft T.J. Hockenson – this one is tough. You probably can’t find a Lions fan that doesn’t like Hock, or at least can’t acknowledge that he’s playing like a top 5 tight end this year and is really really really good, but this is still a challenging pick to justify. In order for a TE at 8th overall to be worth it, he needs to be the best tight end in the NFL, or close to it, very quickly. Brian Burns or Devin Bush would likely have made a bigger impact on this team than T.J. has thus far so, while I remain hopeful, this has yet to prove itself to be a good selection. (Grade: C+ / B-) Jahlani Tavai – I’ll never forget sitting in my basement watching day 2 of the 2019 draft with my dad and my friends. As the Lions’ pick approached, I was SCREAMING for DK Metcalf. There are concerns about his route running, but Marv and Danny won’t be here much longer and DK could be a great compliment to Golladay if he could channel his physical gifts into consistent play on the field. His selection here would have really solved our impending WR problem – so naturally we choose the Second Team All-Mountain West legend instead: Jahlani Tavai. Every time I see DK dominate on Sunday Night Football after watching Tavai flounder around the field the whole afternoon earlier that day, I remember my dad walking away from the TV on draft night muttering “Hawaii … Hawaii …” to himself in disbelief. (Grade: F) Will Harris – absolutely useless safety out of Boston College. Bob Quinn traded Quandre Diggs because he thought this guy would take over that role. Every time I see #25 he’s either 4 steps behind his man or missing a tackle. (Grade: F). Austin Bryant – Blocked a punt once (Grade: C-) Amani Oruwariye – easily the best pick of this draft, as I would have been happy with him in the second, and he’s performed admirably thus far. The only disturbing part of this pick is that, in his post draft presser, Bob Quinn said they were having “internal discussions” about taking him as early as round 4 but decided to wait on it. That’s right, we picked AUSTIN BRYANT over Amani who could have easily been scooped up before we picked again in the 5th. If this gamble hadn’t have paid off, this class would be 2017 levels of bad. (Grade: A, despite Bob’s best efforts to exercise his shit judgement again) Travis Fulgham – is a star for the Eagles now, I want to die. (Grade: A for Philadelphia, F for Detroit) Ty Johnson – cool hair (Grade: C+) Isaac Nauta – another tight end, dope (Grade: C+) The best player in this class relative to where they were taken is Oruwariye, thereby continuing the trend of Bob Quinn setting this team back by whiffing hard in the early rounds. Overall grade C-. This was a terrific season for Detroit Lions fans. Darius Slay was dealt and the great “vision” of Bob Quinn and Matt Patricia culminated in an impressive three win campaign. Very fun, thank you Bob! 2020 Major FA Signings *I will be grading these “so far” as the season isn’t over Hal Vaitai – so we let Glasgow walk because, apparently, he was asking for more than Bob Quinn was willing to pay for a homegrown foundational guard. Was letting Glasgow walk a decent move? I don’t know, he’s been alright for Denver but maybe not quite as good as what he’s been paid. It was a prudent, cap saving decision … that was immediately invalidated by throwing FIFTY MILLION over FIVE YEARS at this absolute dumpster of a tackle. I cannot believe how much money we’re paying to the equivalent of a real life 65 overall. (Grade so far: F) Duron Harmon – solid but old (Grade so far: B) Jamie Collins – the best linebacker we’ve had in the Bob Quinn era and he’s just “pretty good”. Thank you, Bob! (Grade so far: B) Danny Shelton – fat. (Grade so far: C+) Nick Williams – depth (Grade so far: C+) Chase Daniel – do you know why I hated this signing so much? Because Bob Quinn, in his own words, said that drafting a developmental QB once every year or two is good business. He was absolutely right. If Stafford goes down, the season is 99.99% over anyways, so why not be able to throw out a 22-year-old to see what you’ve got? David Blough amounted to nothing, but that bomb to KG on thanksgiving is one of my favorite Lions memories ever. I can’t for the life of me understand giving a decent contract to a washed-up vet when you could give your fanbase a sliver of hope that they may have stumbled onto a miracle by keeping a young QB on the roster. If you’re going to make the argument that you need a vet in the QB room to help Stafford, you can certainly get one cheaper than this. (Grade so far: F) Desmond Trufant – has barely played, has been putrid when he has. Sick Darius Slay replacement, Bob. (Grade so far: D) Jayron Kearse – actually fun to watch, better than Harris (Grade so far: B+) Reggie Ragland – a below average player who, in my opinion, is the second-best LB on the roster. What an indictment of the defense Bob has built. (Grade so far: B-) Adrian Peterson – was nice to see some humanity on Bob Quinn’s part here. He didn’t have to go out and sign Darrell Bevell’s husband, especially when the Washington Football team decided to cut him because they’d rather roll with their stud rookie (imagine that), but he did. Really love to see this move from Bob. It has paid dividends this year big time – especially on 4th and 1 situations. (Grade so far: God tier) The Draft Jeff Okudah – Bob Quinn coming out and saying there was no way we were taking a QB really hurt this team on draft night. In a make-or-break year for Quinntricia, we all knew they weren’t going to draft for the future and take Tua or Herbert … but would it have hurt to put a smokescreen out there and help yourself to get a trade down? Okudah has had ups and downs this year, mostly downs if we’re being honest, and so far is not playing anywhere close to third overall pick value. There’s a reason corners don’t go this high and, unless Jeff rises to top 3 at his position, this was a bad pick. (Grade so far: not looking great, but I’m hopeful). D’Andre Swift – this was the first time, I am not kidding you, that the Lions picked a player I wanted at a spot I wanted them in the draft during the BQ era. Swift is explosive, agile, elusive, and is a mismatch for linebackers wherever he lines up. I don’t care about the drop against the bears because 1) we should not have been in that position in the first place and 2) he’s since shown that he can catch out of the backfield and be highly effective doing so. I’ve watched Kamara and CMC drop passes too … D’Andre’s just came at a horrible time. The problem with this pick, though, is his role so far. When you pick a running back at the top of the second round, the expectation should be that they’re franchise level at their position. Drafting D’Andre at this spot is only justified if he becomes a star featured back – anything else and it’s another horrible waste of a premium pick. (Grade so far: A- for talent, D- for how he’s being used) Julian Okwara – has not contributed. Even when healthy has been scratched. (Grade so far: not looking great but hopefully can turn it around) Jonah Jackson – stud. 10-year mainstay on the offensive line. Terrific value (Grade so far: A) The rest – John Penisini was a good pick, everyone else is meh. Hopefully Cephus turns into something but the fact that he hasn’t done much in a decimated receiving corps is alarming. Overall grade so far would be a B-, but if Okudah doesn’t improve dramatically, this is another dud draft with only Swift (hopefully) and Jackson keeping it afloat. Conclusion If I had to pick one main issue with Bob Quinn’s tenure, it’s that this team is NOT better than the one he inherited. The only position groups you could say tops any of Mayhew’s teams would be the Tight Ends and Running Backs while everything else is either a wash or a downgrade. Stafford has regressed, the receiving corps is razor thin and could be nonexistent next year if Golladay walks, the D line is absolutely pathetic outside of Flowers, the linebacking corps is easily the worst in the NFL, the secondary is average at best, the offensive line has had infinite resources poured into it and is still only performing in MAYBE top 15 range. In the draft, Quinn has hit on a few early picks (Decker, Ragnow) but has whiffed on even more that have badly hurt this team (Davis, Tabor, Tavai, Harris, Johnson). He’s uncovered some definite gems later on (Golladay, Oruwariye), but has also had disastrous picks with ripple-effect consequences (Michael Roberts) that would lead to questionable decisions down the line (Hockenson). His stubbornness in sticking with Ameer Abdullah led to, in my opinion, the worst offense in his tenure (not picking a single RB in 2017) and lead to massive overcorrection later whereby he used premium assets to try to rectify his mistakes (Kerryon, Swift). His lack of ability to identify and obtain talented linebackers in favor of awful ones (Davis, Tavai, JRM) and his complete neglect of the defensive line (only notable picks being Robinson, Okwara, and Bryant) have combined to give us the worst front 7 in the entire NFL. Further negligence of the WR corps (only notable picks being Golladay, Fulgham, and Cephus) has put us in a bad situation there too moving forward. Overall, Quinn has proven to be a poor drafter at best. A few dazzling selections in the later rounds do not compensate for the misses early, and a severe lack of star power (Quinn has yet to draft a pro-bowler who wasn’t an injury alternate even though he’s had five drafts) is actually shocking – ZERO standard pro bowlers in five drafts is actually HARD to do. The incompetence is somewhat impressive. When you look at teams like the Colts, Ravens, Chiefs, Steelers, or Seahawks, who have consistently hit on draft picks by focusing on bringing in high-level athletes with speed and playmaking ability, you’ll notice that the players their GMs choose contrast with what Bob Quinn usually chooses: below-average athletes who are big and slow who project to have a high floor. In free agency, Quinn has proven to be an absolute disaster. His best signing (Marvin Jones) was FIVE years ago, and his second-best signing (Trey Flowers) is hamstrung by the bad pieces Bob has put around him (Shelton, Williams, Jones). His over-reliance on former patriots on defense (Coleman, Collins, Harmon) has led to a lack of identity and upside for the unit as a whole, and his terrible management of the offensive line (Vaitai, Wagner, Lang) is a fireable offense in itself. His propensity to hand out bloated contracts to backup-level players (James, Vaitai) will present a problem for the team’s cap situation moving forward, and his insistence on signing over-the-hill running backs (Anderson, Blount, Peterson) has continued to impede the development of their younger counterparts (Swift, Kerryon). After five years of Bob Quinn, the Lions are left with: -An aging QB that has regressed -A front 7 that is arguably the worst in the NFL -A middling offensive line -A thin secondary -A barren receiver room -A bad coaching staff -A cap situation that needs to be figured out -A mediocre record After analyzing every major move that Bob has made, it is not only abundantly clear that he should be fired, but he may have been the single worst GM in the NFL during this five-year span. A poor drafter and an even worse free agent evaluator, Bob Quinn has put on a masterclass of how NOT to build a roster here in Detroit. We’re tired of it.
No player has made more 50+ yard field goals in a single season in Broncos’ history than Brandon McManus (6). McManus is tied for the league lead with a career-best six 50+ yard field goals this season.
Noah Fant is trying to become only the third tight end in Broncos history to lead the team in receptions for a season. The others to do it are Shannon Sharpe (six different times) and Riley Odoms (four times).
Noah Fant and Tim Patrick are both nearing 1,000 receiving yards for their career.
Vic Fangio owns a 17-8 record as a defensive coordinator or head coach against rookie quarterbacks during his career.
Dolphins Running Backs Coach Eric Studesville coached eight seasons with the Broncos (2010-17), was a member of the Broncos’ Super Bowl 50 coaching staff and served as running backs coach (2010-16), interim head coach (2010) and assistant head coach/running backs coach (2017).
RANDOM THOUGHTS
Please don’t travel far or have large gatherings for the holidays.
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The Broncos, who defeated Carolina in Super Bowl 50, own a 4-1 regular-season record (1-1 away) against the Panthers and will be playing in Charlotte for just the third time in team history (first trip since 2012).
Brandon McManus has made the most 50+ yard field goals (8) in single-season Broncos history and ranks tied for first in the NFL in 50+ made kicks through Week 12. McManus can extend his team single-season record and league lead of eight 50+ yard field goals.
Bradley Chubb needs 2.5 sacks to reach double-digit sacks for the second time in his career.
Panthers RB Christian McCaffrey’s father is former Broncos wide receiver Ed McCaffrey, who played nine seasons for the Broncos (1995-2003) and helped Denver win Super Bowls XXXII and XXXIII.
Panthers C Matt Paradis was drafted by the Broncos in the sixth round (207th overall) of the 2014 NFL Draft. Paradis was a member of the Broncos’ Super Bowl 50 championship team and started all 60 games he appeared in from 2015-18.
Broncos Head Coach Vic Fangio served as defensive coordinator of the Panthers for four seasons (1995-98). Fangio joined the Panthers in their inaugural season (1995), and helped the franchise advance to the NFC Championship Game in just its second season.
Panthers G Michael Schofield was selected by Denver in the fourth round (95th overall) of the 2014 NFL Draft. Schofield was a member of the Broncos’ Super Bowl 50 championship team and started all 32 games he played in while with the team from 2015-16.
Broncos Quarterbacks Coach Mike Shula coached seven seasons with the Panthers, serving as quarterbacks coach (2011-12) and offensive coordinator (2013-17).
Panthers DE Zach Kerr played two seasons with the Broncos, appearing in 27 games from 2017-18.
Panthers T Russell Okung played one season in Denver (2016) and started all 16 games played.
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Jameis Winston Every Play Weeks 9-10 While I really hope it’s not the case, there’s a non-zero chance that Drew Brees has played his last snap in the NFL. The legendary QB turns 43 in less than 2 months, and received an early birthday gift this past Sunday, in the form of multiple broken ribs and a collapsed lung. While the outlook for his return is nebulous at the moment, there’s no doubt that he will miss at least several weeks, leaving the door open for Jameis Winston to step in as the starter. Winston looked so-so in relief of Brees during the 2nd half of Week 10, going 6/10 passing for 63 yards, with no TDs or INTs. Most of the passes were quick 3-step drops, designed to go to a hot route at or behind the line of scrimmage, which was a smart strategic move on Sean Payton’s part. This was doubly reinforced by the few times Winston looked to throw the ball deep, during which he was nearly intercepted, and was sacked twice. The two sacks came in consecutive plays deep in the redzone, and the latter was a result of Winston displaying poor pocket awareness. It seemed like Winston overreacted to the previous play, and balked at nonexistent pressure, ultimately stepping up into defenders who would have otherwise been cleanly blocked. While it would have been nice to see a more impressive fill-in performance from Winston, it’s important to remember that besides a single garbage time throw and several kneel-downs in Week 9’s blowout, this was the first meaningful action Winston has seen since being the Buccaneers starter in 2019, and the game was hanging in the balance. The Saints will likely utilize a short passing game to let Kamara and the skill position players carry the load for the offense, and Payton now has a blank check to pull out all the stops with his playcalling. Taysom Hill Every Play Weeks 1-10 …Which brings me to Taysom. The do-it-all QB/RB/WTE/LB/PHD/.JPEG should be more involved than ever with Drew Brees out, but make no mistake, Hill will not be the traditional starter at QB unless we see true vintage 30TD-30INT Winston. The Saints use Hill to run read-options, to catch passes, and even to throw bombs on flea-flickers, but the 4th year utility player has only 18 total passing attempts across his 573 offensive snaps with the team. At 6’2”, 221lbs, Hill is an absolute unit of a ball-carrier, and he has surprising burst and wiggle. He is much more on the power end of the spectrum, yet he is also an ankle collector who will regularly leave tacklers grabbing at air, and is a competent route runner to boot. Most of Hill’s value lies in his redzone usage, and if not for being tackled within the 3-yard line seemingly every game, Hill could easily have a handful of touchdowns on the season. He had also been coming on strong prior to Brees’s injury, as Weeks 8 and 9 saw Hill rack up a total of 140 yards as a runnereceiver, to go along with 48 yards as a passer. Moreover, Hill carries dual designation as QB and TE on ESPN, and potentially on other platforms as well. Besides the small top-tier of tight ends in fantasy, most guys at the position are touchdown-or bust anyway when it comes to providing value. If your platform allows Hill to be started as one, he brings a unique blend of involvement and touchdown upside in the upcoming weeks. Wayne Gallman Every Play Weeks 1-9 | Every Play Week 10 A top waiver target last week, hopefully you were able to grab Gallman before the news broke of Devonta Freeman being added to the IR for his ankle woes. Gallman is not a sexy name, and I think some of it can be chalked up to the guy having been on the team for a few years now, with no real success to speak of when he did get his chances to shine here and there. Hell, I even saw Alfred Morris truthers out and about last week, but Alf followed up his Week 9 workload split (10 touches, 16 snaps, 21% snap share) with a nearly identical Week 10 workload split (8 touches, 15 snaps, 21% snap share). Gallman is clearly the back to own for the Giants, and he added to his 3-game scoring streak by cashing in twice on the goalline in Week 10, making it 5 total rushing TDs in the past 4 games. His 18 carries and 59% snap share were both season-highs, although a measly 2.9YPC limited his fantasy impact. After his strong involvement contributed to a big division win in Week 10, Gallman should see similar work after he comes out of the Week 11 bye to face the woeful Bengals defense. Kalen Ballage Every Play Weeks 2-9 | Every Play Week 10 People can clown him all they want, but Ballage is quietly playing a workhorse role for the Chargers over the past two weeks. With Justin Jackson the latest LAC running back to hit the IR, Ballage has been far and away the leader in this backfield, and he saw a big uptick in playing time from his Week 9 Chargers debut. Logging a 73% snap share, Ballage turned 24 opportunities into 102 scrimmage yards, and was just barely denied a goalline score. He is being shown tons of trust from the coaching staff, who again gave him rushing attempts on 4th down, as well as entrusting him to pass block for their rookie franchise QB. Fellow RB Troymaine Pope technically returned after missing a game due to a concussion, but he failed to log a single offensive snap. Joshua Kelley has no injury to report, yet he saw only 17 snaps in Week 10, marking his lowest snap count of the season. Until Ekeler returns, Ballage should continue to thrive in this offense, and with news that Ekeler likely won’t even practice this week, Ballage should safely remain locked in as a solid RB2 when the Chargers host the lowly Jets. Nyheim Hines Every Play Weeks 1-6 | Every Play Weeks 8-10 Jonathan Taylor managers have officially reached DEFCON-1 levels of panic. The highly-touted rookie saw his lowest snap count of the season in Week 9, and followed that up with an even lower snap count in Week 10. Hines, on the other hand, balled out in a birthday explosion which saw him tie or exceed season-highs in carries, rushing yards, snap total, and snap percentage. He amassed 115 total yards, and scored twice, once on the ground, and once through the air. Hines was already known as the most explosive athlete in the Colts backfield, but his limited opportunity made him too risky a start, considering he would have to be ultra-efficient on his 20ish snaps in order to return worthwhile value. However, now that we know that this type of usage is a possibility, Hines becomes an interesting play this week. He already commanded every snap in 2-minute drills, and tons of passing-down work, but Week 10 showed what he can do with more consistent usage throughout a game. He carries high risk this week, considering how he followed up his Week 1 explosion with an absolute dud in Week 2. However, if there’s ever a time to gamble on him, it’s definitely in a home matchup with Green Bay’s atrocious rushing defense. Salvon Ahmed Every Play Week 9 | Every Play Week 10 I don’t know what is going on in Miami these days, but there’s gotta be something in the water. Their defense is surprisingly looking like one of the best in the league, the QB switch from Fitz to Tua could not have gone any smoother, and now they are getting great RB play from a guy who was basically 5th in line on the depth chart. 2020 is wild man. The UDFA rookie was initially signed by the 49ers after the 2020 draft, but they couldn’t possibly need RB depth this year, so he ended up in Miami as the backup to Myles Gaskin, who he also backed up in college at Washington. With Gaskin on the IR, Ahmed stepped up in a big way in Week 10, logging a massive 76% snap share, and posting 90 scrimmage yards to go along with a score. As Matt Breida is currently out nursing a pesky hamstring injury, and with the release of Jordan Howard, Patrick Laird is the only other candidate to take snaps from Ahmed. Laird really didn’t do that in Week 10, logging more special teams snaps than offensive snaps, which he has done in every single game this season. Ahmed, on the other hand, looked explosive and decisive, following his blocks well on short-yardage attempts, as well as making defenders miss in the second level. He is built almost exactly like Gaskin, although his lone target across two weeks suggests that the Dolphins may not utilize him in the receiving game in the same way. Either way, as long as Gaskin is out, Ahmed has a chance to pop off in upcoming matchups with the Broncos, Jets, and Bengals. Cole Beasley Every Play Weeks 1-6 | Every Play Weeks 7-10 Through 7 weeks of the season, Beasley was the model of consistency in PPR, seeing at least 6 targets in all but one of the 7 contests, as Josh Allen looked to be putting together a fantasy MVP campaign. Then Week 8 came, and Allen completed only 11 passes in an ugly rain game vs the defending SB champs, which explained away the fact that Beasley struggled to the tune of 2-24-0 on just 2 targets. However, Week 9 brought Beasley probably the best possible WR matchup in the Seahawks, and Beasley disappointed again, hauling in his 3 targets for 39 yards. He also didn’t register a single target in the second half, despite Allen throwing for a season-high 415 yards. This is likely because fellow WR John Brown was finally healthy and involved in Week 9, seeing 11 targets against the Seahawks after struggling through injury all season. Beasley bounced back in a big way in Week 10, to the tune of 11-109-1 on 13 targets, and now Smoke is dealing with an ankle injury he picked up in the game. With Brown’s availability already in question for a game two weeks away, it’s unlikely that he returns as a healthy player in Week 12, which should further reassure Beasley managers. The Bills are on bye in Week 11, but in Week 12 Beasley gets a chance to shine against a Chargers defense which has struggled against the passing game. Michael Pittman Jr. Every Play Weeks 1-10 The rookie WR from USC is coming on strong after returning from an early-season injury, breaking out for 122 total yards in Week 10. After logging back-to-back games with 57+ snaps, MPJ looks to have recovered fully from his odd injury, a form of compartment leg syndrome which forced him to have surgery after Week 3’s contest. The 6’4” WR has yet to be given a chance to show off his massive catch radius in the endzone, but Week 10 saw Philip Rivers target MPJ several times deep in the redzone. In fact, he could have easily logged multiple touchdowns in his breakout day, but was tackled at the 1-yard line on a redzone slant, and took an end-around 20+ yards before being tackled at the 2-yard line. With the Packers coming to the dome for a Week 11 matchup, MPJ could be primed for another big game. Curtis Samuel Every Play Weeks 1-5 | Every Play Weeks 7-10 The often-overlooked 3rd option in the Panthers offense behind DJ Moore and Robby Anderson, Samuel has quietly put together consistent usage numbers with McCaffery out. The speedster has played on at least 70% of snaps in 6 of 9 games, and hasn’t seen fewer than 4 targets since Week 2. He has also logged at least one rushing attempt in every game so far, and has converted 2 rushing scores. Fantasy managers probably took notice after Samuel’s Week 7-9 stretch, where he put up a total of 225 scrimmage yards and 4TDs across the 3 games. However, a dud in Week 10, combined with the news of Teddy Bridgewater’s knee injury, could lead to him being dropped during this week’s round of waivers. Samuel was involved early and often in a tight first-half contest with the Buccaneers in Week 10, but Tampa Bay absolutely dominated the time of possession in the second half through long drives and forced turnovers. As a result, Samuel only saw a single target in the second half, an incomplete pass from backup QB PJ Walker in the waning minutes of what had morphed into a blowout. Matt Rhule should be able to set up a good gameplan around PJ Walker for the upcoming matchups with Detroit and Minnesota, and it should feature plenty of Samuel. Marquez Valdes-Scantling Every Play Weeks 1-4 | Every Play Weeks 6-10 Bring on the hate. I don’t like it any more than you, and I’m personally not touching the guy since there are better options in my leagues. But after two big weeks which saw MVS haul in a total of 202 yards and 3TDs, he’s made a convincing case to be picked up in standard scoring leagues. After all, he is playing 60+ snaps with an Aaron Rodgers who is absolutely dealing right now, heavy winds and all. News of Allen Lazard’s impending return will turn managers off, as will a bad matchup with the Colts, and of course MVS’s tendency to drop easy catches doesn’t help either. But if you’re down bad, especially in deeper roster formats which start lots of WRs, you could do way worse than MVS. On average, he’s playing on 88% of the offensive snaps in the past 7 contests, and it will likely take a bit before Lazard cuts into that too much. Logan Thomas Every Play Weeks 1-9 | Every Play Week 10 Probably the most consistent tight end outside of the elite tier, Thomas is still available on tons of waiver wires. In Week 10 vs the Lions, he put up another solid day for the position, grabbing 4 of 6 targets for 66 yards. He also came close to scoring his 3rd touchdown in 4 games, by hauling in a catch at the 2-yard line, and then later drawing a holding flag on an endzone target. Thomas has been playing a massive amount of snaps this season, and Week 10 saw him log an astounding 87 snaps. According to the Football Outsiders database, there have only been 2 single-game snap counts higher from a skill-position player in 2020, Cooper Kupp (92) and Robert Woods (88), both in Week 8. Thomas is 3rd among tight ends in offensive snap percentage, and 9th among tight ends in total offensive snaps. The guy just doesn’t come off the field for the Washington offense, and with Alex Smith throwing the pigskin a whopping 55 times in Week 10, there should be plenty of opportunities for Thomas in the upcoming weeks. Speaking of, the upcoming matchups for Thomas are quite juicy, with the Bengals and Cowboys on the slate.
Noah Fant needs 89 receiving yards to become the 18th tight end in NFL history to reach 1,000 receiving yards by his 24th career game.
Brandon McManus needs 1 point to pass Matt Prater (2007-13) for the third-most points (682) in franchise history.
The Broncos rank first in the NFL since the start of the 2019 season in red zone scoring defense, allowing a touchdown on only 32 of 75 opponent trips (42.7%) into the red zone.
Broncos DE Shelby Harris played two seasons with the Raiders from 2014-15.
Raiders Running Back Devontae Booker played his first four NFL seasons in Denver (2016-19), appearing in 61 games (6 starts) after being selected in the fourth round (136th overall) of the 2016 NFL Draft.
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NFL odds, lines, picks, predictions for Week 4, 2020: Proven model backing Cowboys, Seahawks SportsLine's computer model simulated every Week 4 NFL game 10,000 times with surprising results. NFL Week 4 - Best Bets From the SI Gambling Team The SI Gambling team, along with our colleagues at SI's MMQB weigh in on their top best bet against the spread for Week 4 in the NFL. Author: Still, there are 12 games to be played on Sunday, including 11 in the 1 and 4 p.m. ET windows. To help you prep for that main slate, our staff has previewed each game below, featuring odds and picks for every matchup. Week 4 NFL Odds, Picks & Predictions. Click on a matchup to skip to that preview and pick. The third week of the 2020 NFL season offers a full slate of exciting Week 4 NFL betting matchups. Welcome to the Week 4 NFL Betting Guide, providing all of the key lines around this week’s action. We have a ton of NFL betting opportunities at our disposal today despite a modified slate. Moneylines, spreads, over/unders, prop bets and more! For the gambling enthusiasts, here are my Week 4 NFL picks. To note, the team logos indicate who I think will win the game, not cover the spread. At the end of the picks, I'll note a few teams The good news is the rest of our NFL locks panned out. The 49ers and Buccaneers dominated, and easily covered their respective point spreads. It gave us a solid 2-1 record on the week, which showed you to the green at your favorite online betting websites. Let’s do it again in week four, as I break down my week 4 NFL locks. Here are picks against the spread for every game in Week 4, as well as the latest betting odds. Betting lines and trends are courtesy of OddsShark . Denver Broncos (PK) at New York Jets The NFL is back and we have coverage for every game, handing out free top NFL picks and odds analysis as always. We were able to hit big wins in the first three weeks, and Week 4 has some juicy Week 4 NFL Upsets to Bet On I very nearly went 3-0 with my NFL underdog picks last week, but I’ll take 2-1 anytime when you’re talking about elite betting value. There are a ton of advantageous situations for bettors to consider this week, if not the most alluring spots all year to this point. Ravens (-14) at Washington Football Team Seahawks at Dolphins (+6.5) Browns (+4.5) at Cowboys Patriots at Chiefs (-7) Giants at Rams (-13) Listen to Doug Gottlieb give his five best NFL gambling picks of Week 4 after a successful Week 3 where Doug won four of his five picks.. Gottlieb likes an angry Ravens team (-14) coming off a blowout loss to the Chiefs against a 1-2 Washington Football
NFL 2019 Season Week 4: Picks, Best Bets & Gambling Advice ...
NFL BETTING PICKS Week 4 NFL Week 4 Spreads & Picks 2020. Sal Vetri gives his NFL Week 4 spread betting picks for the NFL Week 4 Slate of games. 100% Dep... Week 4 NFL betting lines advice presented by Lineups.com with your host Matthew Amato. We go over the lock-in picks of the week on Draftkings sportsbook. Enj... 💰 In this week's episode of Bet On it direct from Las Vegas, Kelly Stewart, Marco D'Angelo, and Gianni "The Greek Gambler" break down NFL Week 4 from a sport... Week 4 NFL Game Picks! Subscribe to NFL: http://j.mp/1L0bVBu Check out our other channels: NFL Vault http://www.youtube.com/nflvault NFL Network http://www.y... Will Brinson is joined by Pete Prisco and R.J. for Week 4 gambling advice, covering all 14 games on Sunday and Monday. The guys discuss Pats-Bills (6:10), Ja... 💰 In this week's episode of Bet On it direct from Las Vegas, Kelly Stewart, Marco D'Angelo,, Gianni the Greek, and Ralph Michaels break down NFL Week 4 from ... NFL handicapping expert Adam "ATM" Thompson offers his Best Bets for Week 4 of the 2020 NFL season. Adam is 11-3 (.733) on his Best Bets this season.
