All this with GameStop has got me thinking-even in a market as hot as the one now, there have still got to be plenty of undervalued stocks. Given that hypothesis, I have decided to gather information and produce bull theses on stocks that I believe are dramatically undervalued in the stock market from time to time. I do not know how often I will do this, it just depends on whether or not it picks up steam, but it is something fun to occupy my time with! Keep in mind, that I am not a financial advisor, and none of this is financial advice. So, without further ado, I present my first case:
I believe that Las Vegas Sands (LVS) is dramatically undervalued-even as a resort chain during a global pandemic. There are a number of reasons for this:
To put it simply, the stock has taken an unjustified beating during the pandemic, especially on this last earnings report. Other casino stocks, such as MGM and Wynn Resorts, have recovered at a far greater rate while not being as attractive as LVS in my opinion.
Locations: LVS has an attractive portfolio of locations, including the very popular Venetian in Las Vegas-which includes an expo/convention center for the NUMEROUS corporate conventions that do and will continue to take place- as well as the Palazzo. Additionally, LVS has multiple resorts in Macao, where it holds one of only SIX casino licenses to serve the entire Chinese economy. Finally, LVS also operates Marina Bay Sands in Singapore-where they have one of only TWO casino licenses. In short, Sands is a leader in the US and Asian casino markets, both highly lucrative areas in the industry.
Asia: As the middle class in China continues to grow at a rapid rate, more consumers will vacation to Macao and Singapore and drive up revenues in the area post-pandemic. Sands’ casino license is good through May of 2022, so they will be able to serve this growing middle class for the next 15 months and, I believe, well beyond. If you are concerned about the expiration of the licenses, don’t be. MGM and SJM holdings both had licenses set to expire in 2020, but both were renewed until 2022 by the Chinese government. The gaming industry in Macao has some serious weight, being the city’s largest employer and accounting for 82% of government revenue to the city. The Chinese government would have very little interest in adjusting or revoking the licenses unless a company made an egregious misstep. A misstep by LVS is highly unlikely, as the market is very lucrative and doing anything to compromise access to that market would be nonsensical. Further, Sands' Singapore license is highly coveted given that the only other license belongs to Genting Group, a company based in Malaysia-LVS has no US competitors in Singapore, and no competitors that are listed on US stock exchanges, making them your best bet for the Asian casino market in the United States.
The balance sheet: As of December 31, 2020-nearly a year into the pandemic-LVS had a cash balance of $2.12 billion, which is quite healthy. While LVS does have outstanding debt of roughly $14 billion, this is not really of any concern, as net revenue amounted to just shy of $13.8 billion in 2019, a number I would expect to return-and even grow-after the pandemic. Additionally, capital expenditures for LVS amounted to only $252 million in 2020, giving some longevity to the balance sheet as revenues continue to recover slowly.
New CEO: Robert Goldstein has been with LVS since 1995, when The Venetian was in its planning phase. During this time, he was instrumental in attracting restauranteurs and retailers. He has served in a variety of leadership positions, including as COO of the company. Under Goldstein’s leadership, LVS achieved financial performance records and has been positioned a leader in regulatory compliance, an important note when considering the casino industry-especially in Asia, where noncompliance could get their highly coveted license revoked.
Nobody can say that it is easy to be in the hospitality industry during a global pandemic, but I believe that Las Vegas Sands has the market, the balance sheet, and the knowledge to weather this storm and grow in the aftermath.
I first bought in to LVS at approximately $59 per share before cutting my losses at $56 to wait for a better buy point. Well, that buy point has been achieved. As of January 29, I am back in on LVS at $48 per share with a price target of $65.

If you are new to online casino then I suggest that you should go for iOffer I Dough, otherwise known as IDNPoker. The website is very user-friendly, has an interface that is pleasant to use, and has a great jackpot which updates in real time. Eight deposit choices include US dollars. Is iOffer I Do the real deal and why is it the second largest online poker website in the world? This article will try to answer these questions and more. Read on for more information.iOffer is a top poker website which is famous all over the world because of the poker tournaments which it hosts regularly. The poker rooms on the website are mainly based in Europe (where most of the international players come from), but some rooms also have players from Asian countries like Singapore, Malaysia and China. Players from Asia seem to be quite happy with iOffer, as they receive great tips from successful players about their moves. Most importantly, they are able to win real cash/ prize money and thus can earn enough to live on for a while (or at least make enough to cover living expenses).Another unique feature of iOffer I Dough is that it allows its players to participate in live chat with other members of the website. Players can chat about everything from tips to strategies, tournaments and everything in between - something which most online poker sites do not allow. The live chat also gives those players who join iOffer a chance to meet other poker players from different parts of the globe and thus build better contacts and relationships.The most important thing about idNPoker and one of the reasons why it is considered to be the best option by many players is the progressive jackpots it offers. If you want to play online poker in Asia, then you should definitely try out the progressive jackpots offered by iOffer. Here is a brief rundown of what these promotions entail:- If you are a beginner or if you want to improve your gaming skills, then iOffer can surely help you. This poker network offers a variety of games and prizes especially designed for new players and for players who do not yet have the experience with online poker. All the games supported by iOffer are completely free to play. - The website also offers a variety of free games that are suitable for players from all over Asia.- If you are on the lookout for a real deal and not just some hype about the progressive jackpots, then you should definitely check out the Daily Double option. Daily Double is a multi-table tournament that offers players the opportunity to win real cash. This is a lower end option compared to the other options of iOffer like the VIP and Single options. You can earn up to $10 weekly just by playing some of the most popular Rng games like iOffer Blackjack and Ultimate Bet.

If you are new to online casino then I suggest that you should go for iOffer I Dough, otherwise known as IDNPoker. The website is very user-friendly, has an interface that is pleasant to use, and has a great jackpot which updates in real time. Eight deposit choices include US dollars. Is iOffer I Do the real deal and why is it the second largest online poker website in the world? This article will try to answer these questions and more. Read on for more information.iOffer is a top poker website which is famous all over the world because of the poker tournaments which it hosts regularly. The poker rooms on the website are mainly based in Europe (where most of the international players come from), but some rooms also have players from Asian countries like Singapore, Malaysia and China. Players from Asia seem to be quite happy with iOffer, as they receive great tips from successful players about their moves. Most importantly, they are able to win real cash/ prize money and thus can earn enough to live on for a while (or at least make enough to cover living expenses).Another unique feature of iOffer I Dough is that it allows its players to participate in live chat with other members of the website. Players can chat about everything from tips to strategies, tournaments and everything in between - something which most online poker sites do not allow. The live chat also gives those players who join iOffer a chance to meet other poker players from different parts of the globe and thus build better contacts and relationships.The most important thing about idNPoker and one of the reasons why it is considered to be the best option by many players is the progressive jackpots it offers. If you want to play online poker in Asia, then you should definitely try out the progressive jackpots offered by iOffer. Here is a brief rundown of what these promotions entail:- If you are a beginner or if you want to improve your gaming skills, then iOffer can surely help you. This poker network offers a variety of games and prizes especially designed for new players and for players who do not yet have the experience with online poker. All the games supported by iOffer are completely free to play. - The website also offers a variety of free games that are suitable for players from all over Asia.- If you are on the lookout for a real deal and not just some hype about the progressive jackpots, then you should definitely check out the Daily Double option. Daily Double is a multi-table tournament that offers players the opportunity to win real cash. This is a lower end option compared to the other options of iOffer like the VIP and Single options. You can earn up to $10 weekly just by playing some of the most popular Rng games like iOffer Blackjack and Ultimate Bet.

All this with GameStop has got me thinking-even in a market as hot as the one now, there have still got to be plenty of undervalued stocks. Given that hypothesis, I have decided to gather information and produce bull theses on stocks that I believe are dramatically undervalued in the stock market from time to time. I do not know how often I will do this, it just depends on whether or not it picks up steam, but it is something fun to occupy my time with! Keep in mind, that I am not a financial advisor, and none of this is financial advice. So, without further ado, I present my first case:
I believe that Las Vegas Sands (LVS) is dramatically undervalued-even as a resort chain during a global pandemic. There are a number of reasons for this:
To put it simply, the stock has taken an unjustified beating during the pandemic, especially on this last earnings report. Other casino stocks, such as MGM and Wynn Resorts, have recovered at a far greater rate while not being as attractive as LVS in my opinion.
Locations: LVS has an attractive portfolio of locations, including the very popular Venetian in Las Vegas-which includes an expo/convention center for the NUMEROUS corporate conventions that do and will continue to take place- as well as the Palazzo. Additionally, LVS has multiple resorts in Macao, where it holds one of only SIX casino licenses to serve the entire Chinese economy. Finally, LVS also operates Marina Bay Sands in Singapore-where they have one of only TWO casino licenses. In short, Sands is a leader in the US and Asian casino markets, both highly lucrative areas in the industry.
Asia: As the middle class in China continues to grow at a rapid rate, more consumers will vacation to Macao and Singapore and drive up revenues in the area post-pandemic. Sands’ casino license is good through May of 2022, so they will be able to serve this growing middle class for the next 15 months and, I believe, well beyond. If you are concerned about the expiration of the licenses, don’t be. MGM and SJM holdings both had licenses set to expire in 2020, but both were renewed until 2022 by the Chinese government. The gaming industry in Macao has some serious weight, being the city’s largest employer and accounting for 82% of government revenue to the city. The Chinese government would have very little interest in adjusting or revoking the licenses unless a company made an egregious misstep. A misstep by LVS is highly unlikely, as the market is very lucrative and doing anything to compromise access to that market would be nonsensical. Further, Sands' Singapore license is highly coveted given that the only other license belongs to Genting Group, a company based in Malaysia-LVS has no US competitors in Singapore, and no competitors that are listed on US stock exchanges, making them your best bet for the Asian casino market in the United States.
The balance sheet: As of December 31, 2020-nearly a year into the pandemic-LVS had a cash balance of $2.12 billion, which is quite healthy. While LVS does have outstanding debt of roughly $14 billion, this is not really of any concern, as net revenue amounted to just shy of $13.8 billion in 2019, a number I would expect to return-and even grow-after the pandemic. Additionally, capital expenditures for LVS amounted to only $252 million in 2020, giving some longevity to the balance sheet as revenues continue to recover slowly.
New CEO: Robert Goldstein has been with LVS since 1995, when The Venetian was in its planning phase. During this time, he was instrumental in attracting restauranteurs and retailers. He has served in a variety of leadership positions, including as COO of the company. Under Goldstein’s leadership, LVS achieved financial performance records and has been positioned a leader in regulatory compliance, an important note when considering the casino industry-especially in Asia, where noncompliance could get their highly coveted license revoked.
Nobody can say that it is easy to be in the hospitality industry during a global pandemic, but I believe that Las Vegas Sands has the market, the balance sheet, and the knowledge to weather this storm and grow in the aftermath.
I first bought in to LVS at approximately $59 per share before cutting my losses at $56 to wait for a better buy point. Well, that buy point has been achieved. As of January 29, I am back in on LVS at $48 per share with a price target of $65.
P.S. I know that I am no legend like u/DeepFuckingValue, but I like this stock!!

The best laid PLANs of mice and men often go awry.
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Welcome back to another effortpost by me generally on the developing arms race in East Asia, this time covering the People's Liberation Army Navy, hereafter referred to as the "PLAN", and its massive growth... and... mostly, well, its massive growth. What that means is mostly covered in other posts about how other countries are responding to it. The why is a bit difficult because, well, China is not well known for open debate, or open anything, really, which will turn up repeatedly.
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1. What you [might] need to know about South Korea's ludicrous arms buildup
2. We shall fight on the seas and oceans, we shall fight with growing confidence and growing strength in the air, we shall defend our island, whatever the cost may be. We shall fight on the beaches.... uh, what do we do after that again?: The Perilous Defensive Position of Taiwan
3. "You've hit another cargo ship? The Problems with the US Navy: Not all of them begin with "Seven" and end with "th Fleet"."
4. Will China's PLAN survive contact with the enemy?
5. Biden's New START and modern nuclear war
6. First And Last Stand Of The Tin Can Navies [ASEAN + Australia and the smaller adversaries China may contend with]
7. Boned: Problems in the US Air [and space!] Force
8. --Unnamed-- effortpost on Japanese military matters, mostly about how weird the JSDF status is
9. --Unnamed--effortpost on Indian military matters, and why they can't focus on China or buy anything that works
10. --Unnamed--effortpost on the rest of the PLA, mostly the air force though
11. --Unnamed--effortpost on the rest of the US Armed Forces, mostly talking about how the marines are changing and the Army's new love affair with INF-busting weapons
12. Conclusion?

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Glossary:
PLA = People's Liberation Army = the armed forces of the People's Republic of China, or China
PLAN = People's Liberation Army Navy = the naval forces of the PLA
PLANAF = People's Liberation Army Navy Air Force = the air force of the navy of the PLA
Ashm = Anti-ship missile, cruise missile unless specifically described as otherwise--there's only one anti-ship ballistic missile in existence and its efficacy and whether or not it functions is questionable
CIWS = close-in weapons system, like the Phalanx gun or Goalkeeper
VLS = vertical launch system for missiles
AEGIS = Aegis Combat System if described specifically in that context, a US naval warfare system, but we'll usually be talking about "Chinese AEGIS", which is a nomiker used by the Chinese media in particular comparing the Type 346 radar to the AN-SPY family, with which it shares numerous technical characteristics--but how comparable the "Chinese AEGIS" system is to what the US uses is a complete unknown.
SAM = Surface-to-air missile, in this case usually a S-300 derivative
First Island Chain = The islands, stretching from Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, the Philippines, Taiwan, and Japan, which keep China inside its littoral seas much as the GIUK [Greenland-Iceland-UK] gap has kept various continental powers out of the Atlantic.
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Some PLAN equipment you might see described--the nomenclature is confusing and a relic of the cultural revolution, and as a result China now has more Types than the British.
Type 003 = China's new conventionally powered supercarriers, currently under construction
Type 002 = China's first truly "operational" carrier
Type 001 = China's first carrier, built on a Soviet hull purchased from Ukraine ostensibly to make a floating casino
Type 055 = Guided-missile cruiser, though generally called a destroyer it's probably more descriptively labeled a cruiser
Type 052D = Guided-missile destroyer using "Chinese AEGIS"
Type 052/051B/052B/052C = the gradual progression of evolving Chinese naval tech, largely built as practice/demo ships like the Type 001. Some of the earlier ones are steam-powered but by the Type 052C you have something almost as advanced as the Type 052D, albeit with turbine problems
Type 054A = the standard modern frigate of the PLAN
Type 053[anything] = old PLAN frigates
Type 096 = China's newest SSBN class, under construction
Type 094 = China's first functional SSBN class, very noisy
Type 092 = China's first "SSBN", believed to have never left port with an actual nuke on board
Type 095 = China's newest SSN class, under construction
Type 093 = China's current SSN class, noisy
Type 091 = China's first SSN class, dumb dumb dumb and is at a 1950s tech level
Type 039[A] = China's new SSK class
Kilo = China's older SSK class, imported from Russia
Sovremenny = China's first capable anti-air destroyers, imported from Russia
​
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1. The Last Time A Rising Navy Challenged A Dominant Foe

The last time we've seen something like this was in the late 19th century. After the First World War shipbuilding was restricted by the landmark Washington Naval Treaty, one of the first great arms control treaties, and during the Cold War the Soviet Union never really had any hopes of surpassing American naval power. China, however, seems intent on replacing the US as the world's dominant naval power, or at least building a force that can stop the US Navy, even combined with the forces of Japan and other regional allies.
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The nations in question, of course, in the last naval arms race, were the United Kingdom and a newly-unified Germany. Germany never reached the level of the UK, but seriously threatened it. Previously the UK had maintained a policy of having more ships than the next two largest fleets combined, but this was no longer possible, and the UK legitimately was fearful for its naval supremacy. It didn't last too long in the end--under a decade--and a resumption was foiled by first a world war and then the Washington Naval Treaty. The impact of the arms race, though, was massive. It set Germany and the UK at odds with each other, it resulted in a general buildup of warships pretty much everywhere [South America was, believe it or not, one of the biggest offenders there], established Germany for a time as the world's second naval power, having eclipsed both France and Russia and turning a small coastal defense navy into something that was able to defeat the Royal Navy itself, though never comprehensively enough to change the course of the first world war.
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China dwells in a much different situation than Germany did at the turn of the last century, so we can only extend the analogy so far--substituting in Japan for the UK, India for Russia, and so on is possible but not, in my view, educational. However, we can see many of the same elements playing in here. China seems intent on replacing the US as a dominant power, or at least as regional hegemon--the ancient tributary system seems to lie fairly heavily on Chinese minds--and in order to do that, it must be able to have some degree of power projection and the capability to deny the US Navy access to areas within the first island chain. It remains to be seen, however, how successful that quest will be. Much as with the dreadnought battleships, I wouldn't be surprised if we never actually do find out if most of the shiny naval toys people have built actually work. But their mere existence shows the mutual hostility developing in the region and demonstrates the size of the Chinese threat.
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Another lesson learned here is that China, like Germany, may not develop a naval force capable of defeating the US comprehensively, but only partially, and that one of the powers--in this case, China--might be pressured to strike first before the US Navy can close the gap. That ~2030 gap I talked about in my last post is, I think, an especially vulnerable point, because China may look at a degraded, but rejuvenating US Navy, then at their own capable forces, and decide to strike then in Taiwan and the South China Sea, only to back down when the US Navy again eclipses them. Whether or not that will happen, we will see--but I find it a very dangerous and perhaps likely possibility.
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2. What the PLAN looked like 20 years ago

The PLAN has undergone an absolutely stunning evolution in the past two decades. In the Third Taiwan Strait Crisis the US could intimidate China with a pair of aircraft carrier strike groups and China could do pretty much nothing about it. Now the US is afraid of sending anything more than a destroyer through the strait.
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Twenty years ago, the PLAN was a bit of a joke. Even Taiwan figured it could hold the seas against the PLAN. It consisted of a few tens of outdated coastal-defense frigates, some Soviet-era diesel-electric subs, and a large number of unsophisticated missile craft. The pride of the Chinese fleet were a handful of destroyers assembled using cobbled-together Western technology--copied French missiles, American gas turbines, the lot. According to American accounts at the time, the instructions for the equipment hadn't even been translated. The most advanced ship in the fleet used steampower. There were nuclear submarines, but of 1950s quality. Of particular note was the fact that the Chinese fleet had no area air defense capabilities--their premier surface-to-air-missile was an unlicensed knockoff of the French Crotale, and couldn't shoot anything outside of visual range, at high altitudes, or really doing anything more sophisticated than trying to kill their ships with low-altitude dumb bombing runs.
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In the past twenty years, however, the PLAN has, much like the German Navy towards the end of the 19th century, gone from an afterthought to the world's second most powerful force. It began, as modern China's military capabilities almost all began, with the looting of the former Soviet Union for naval technology. While Soviet naval tech was generally lacking, it was much better than anything else China could get its hands on after the arms embargo placed on it in the 1990s by the US and Europe in response to Tienanmen and the end of the Cold War. China bought Soviet diesel submarines, Soviet air-defense destroyers, and Soviet aircraft carriers, which it promptly left lying around [and turned one of them into a theme park]. This was combined with copies of various pieces of Western, mostly European, technology for everything from sonars to surface-to-air missiles. China then began developing its first modern indigenous surface combatants, the Type 052C, but there were still problems. The engines were Ukrainian and had reliability trouble, the gun jammed, there was no VLS.
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It is really in the last ten years that things have begun to move extremely quickly, and even only in the latter portion of the decade. In 2012 the Type 001 Liaoning entered service, and although it remains more of a training ship than an operational vessel, and is held back by a poor carrier aircraft, the mere fact that China "built" a carrier was a surprise to many. In 2014 the first Type 052D destroyer came online. It had learned the lessons from the Type 052C, and in just the last six years at least ten have entered service, with a class size of about 23 expected. This rapid expansion is what has frightened competing navies the most--in a little over a decade, the PLAN is constructing more destroyers than the British, French, and Australian navies have in service combined. It is also building the Type 055, which has generally been called a "destroyer" despite being more aptly described as a cruiser in line with the Ticonderoga-class. China has also built 30 modern frigates in the past decade, which has also swelled its numbers, along with numerous smaller corvettes, submarines, and so on.
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This is why the PLAN has become such an object of concern. While it cannot challenge the US Navy yet, at least outside its littoral zones, the decline of the USN and rapid expansion of the PLAN means that it is a serious threat. And the speed at which it has developed has made many fearful. As recently as 2010, the idea of China operating an aircraft carrier or modern destroyers seemed distant, possibly preposterous. Now China speaks openly of having a six-carrier fleet in the 2030s, although, as with many of China's plans to operate full US-replicated tech and doctrine, these may have somewhat caved to realism. China is mighty, but it has already done the easy part--the last part is much harder, in economics and in military matters. Building the software, the institutional knowledge, the hardware to compete with the US Navy will prove difficult.
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3. What the PLAN looks like now--submarines

Submarines are one of the PLAN's weak spots, particularly nuclear submarines. China is, however, making some fairly rapid advances in this area.
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Their nuclear submarine program has been considered a bit of a joke for some time. In the late 1950s when all the cool kids great powers were getting nuclear submarines, China decided [or at least Mao did] that China needed nuclear submarines too. About 16 years later, the product of this effort finally emerged as the Type 091 submarine. Based on 1950s technology, with poor radiation shielding and basically nothing done in the name of noise reduction, and not even a teardrop hull, the Type 091 was probably more of a threat to the sailors who were on it than anyone else, except maybe the two Tench-class submarines that Taiwan operates, which use 1940s technology and are the world's longest-serving submarines, though they're mostly used for training nowadays. Even then, my money would be on the Tench despite the upgrades the PLAN has made to the Type 091. There's only so much you can do to put lipstick on a pig.
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China also produced an SSBN, the Type 092, which was probably the only submarine more useless than the Type 091. About the only useful thing it did for the PLAN was that it served as a test platform for SLBM launches. Reports suggest that the Type 092 is the noisiest SSBN ever made, and is thought to have only ever undertaken a single patrol. It stayed at port for so long that it was thought to have sunk in an accident. And the experience turned the PLAN off from building SSBNs for over twenty years, until the Type 094 came online in 2007.
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More recent submarines are growing in capability, though. The Type 094 is not the noisiest SSBN ever made, and may not even be the noisiest in current service--that honor going to the Delta III operated by the Russian Navy, which uses 1970s technology, and, which, according to the US Office of Naval Intelligence, is about as noisy as the Type 094. The Type 093 is also moderately capable--it actually functions and can fire anti-ship missiles. However, the Type 093 is still considered only comparable to the Soviet Victor III class, again using 1970s technology. Future submarines have not yet been seen, but expectations are that China will make another step forward to late 1980s or early 1990s tech levels, producing something on par with the Los Angeles or Akula for the first time.
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China also operates a fairly capable fleet of coastal diesel-electric submarines. While some are quite old--the Type 035--most are pretty average for the global submarine force, a mix of Kilos and domestic AIP designs. The large number of boats in operation and their anti-ship missile capability means that these should be considered a real threat, at least in the littoral waters near to China, but they aren't decisive by any means, especially since China is facing off against such threats as Japan's Soryu class, probably the most advanced diesel-electric sub in existence.
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In conclusion, the PLAN is still pretty weak on the submarine front--weaker here than on anything but its carrier force, but its capabilities are advancing rapidly and should not be underestimated.

4. What the PLAN looks like now--surface combatants

The surface fleet is definitely the most impressive and capable portion of the PLAN, no questions about it. China once had a fleet consisting mostly of coastal frigates and missile boats. As recently as 2000, its fleet had no real area-air-defense destroyers, and no SAMs that could operate outside visual range. Now, though, the PLAN operates tens of advanced guided-missile destroyers, advanced frigates, and still retains a large number of small, stealthy missile boats.
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The major focus of Chinese warships appears to be on anti-air, with anti-surface being a somewhat secondary concern for all but the smallest vessels. This makes sense when you realize that the primary focus is, at least for the moment, on using land-based aircraft to strike against hostile fleet formations using long-range anti-ship missiles, in a very Soviet sort of way--"Backfire raids" using long-range land-based aircraft with anti-ship missiles were one of the US Navy's major concerns during the Cold War, and the very reason for the F-14's existence along with the AIM-54 Phoenix it carried. However, China has been developing anti-surface capabilities as well using ashms and land-attack cruise missiles [generally the same thing, actually]. Since China has finally developed a VLS system that allows it to use the same launcher for multiple missiles, its most recent ships have become more versatile in that role.
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How effective these ships are at that task is, however, a relatively open question. Their radars at least seem to quite sophisticated, using flat-panel AESA, and have been dubbed "Chinese AEGIS" by the highly reliable Chinese domestic media. The basic platform their surface-to-air missiles are based on also seems to be fairly capable--the HQ-9 is an S-300 derivative, a respectable SAM system though, again, how capable it is against opponents in an active electronic warfare environment is questionable, and it has basically no capabilities against stealth aircraft like the F-35 as far as anyone knows. The efficacy of their CIWS, again, is open to question. Really this is true of everything about the modern PLAN, and PLA in general. The PLA is secretive, has not exported most of its hardware, and has developed largely independently of foreign militaries, though it is definitely influenced by them. Now that the PLAN has moved away from simply copying foreign hardware and patching it together, its capabilities are much harder to discern.
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However, they should be taken as a very real threat, and not written off. My guess would be that their warships are about as capable as most of their non-American counterparts, save those equipped with AEGIS, but that's all my guess is---a guess.

5. What the PLAN looks like now--carriers

The PLAN currently has two carriers in service, and two more known to be under construction, and most suspect that it will build several more. However, at the moment, the PLAN's carrier force is largely a paper tiger, designed around training. The first carrier, the Type 001, basically was a "how do you build a carrier" kit bought from Russia, possibly by accident--the "fully functional" Minsk ended up as a theme park, believe it or not. The hull was purchased from Ukraine and then completed in China years later. It is also believed that the PLAN may have learned some things about aircraft carriers from the HMAS Melbourne, which was sold to a Chinese firm for scrapping--rumor has it the PLAN had no clue this had happened and then had a field day looking at all the stuff that hadn't been taken out. This was back in the old days when nobody could imagine that China would have an aircraft carrier. The Type 002, however, is built from scratch, but isn't particularly capable especially as it's a ski-jump carrier, leaving the Type 003 the first carrier which will prove actually useful.
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The main thing holding China's carrier fleet back, though, is a lack of a suitable aircraft. Originally China was considering purchasing Su-33s from Russia, hardly a good carrier-based aircraft but functional, but after Russia discovered that China had been mucking about building a Su-27 derivative without asking the deal fell through [China tells a different story, saying that Russia demanded exorbitant amounts to reopen production which it was unwilling to pay for a nearly obsolete aircraft]. As a result China operates the J-15 as its naval fighter, with... less than stellar results. It's extremely heavy, and, if it takes off from the carrier, has minimal range if carrying anything at all--it can't take more than two short range air to air missiles into the sky to fight enemy aircraft. However, the J-15 isn't really intended for combat service--it's intended to teach China how to run carriers, and it seems to work well enough for that task, aside from the multiple fatal crashes. There is, however, thought to be a new carrier fighter in the pipeline--most say the J-31/FC-31, which has reduced RCS and a number of carrier-unique features, is being pitched as a carrier-based aircraft and will serve as China's carrier fighter in the future. China also lacks any fixed wing carrier-based airborne early warning, which could prove troublesome--a lack of AEW means that its view is limited by the horizon--and has no resupply aircraft like the C-2 Greyhound. As a result, for the moment at least, China lacks an effective carrier force, but it is likely to continue developing rapidly in the next decade and become a fairly substantial threat. Remember that as recently as 2010, a Chinese aircraft carrier seemed preposterous to many people, and now they have two.

6. Some attention to land-based aircraft

Land-based aircraft as a naval weapon are not generally used by the US, which has never had a reason to develop them as a doctrinal focus. Sure, you could potentially envision them as being used, and there even were situations where they were utilized, but it just wasn't generally a priority or how things were done. For China, though, taking influence from the Soviets, and lying on littoral seas with hostile powers in the First Island Chain, land-based aircraft and missiles are a key part of doctrine. Although this is often viewed as a new thing, called A2/AD [anti access/area denial], it's really the result of a long historical evolution of naval power, probably most refined by the Soviet Union. As a result, land-based naval aviation plays an important role, firing anti-ship missiles at standoff distances at enemy vessels, and shore-based launchers of anti-ship missiles are also an important weapon. The combination of these systems means that venturing within China's littoral seas is a dangerous proposition during war, and some waters, like those of the Taiwan Strait, are effectively considered closed at this point in the event of hostilities breaking out. For this reason air superiority is also important in this sort of naval warfare, as if either side gains air superiority it can pummel its opponents with air-launched anti-ship missiles. China's capabilities in this area are sophisticated and should not be underestimated, but they are unlikely to go through a rapid period of growth like the PLAN's fleet.
​
And a brief note dedicated entirely to the DF-21D "Carrier killer" that the PLA likes to show off. It's a pretty impressive capability, on paper, using a ballistic missile to hit a carrier. The CEP [circular error probable] means that it could even happen, presuming that an aircraft carrier was good enough to sit in one place, not moving, long enough to be detected by China. Aircraft carriers look big, but the seas are huge, and they're surprisingly hard to find. They also move quite fast, in excess of of 35mph/55kph, and thus by the time the ballistic missile has launched it might well be out of range given the fact that ballistic missiles are not particularly known for their maneuverability in terminal stages, at least not in the realm of miles. The DF-21D is not a particular threat to the modern aircraft carrier. It could potentially be one if it evolves into a hypersonic boost-glide vehicle, but that's a whole additional can of worms, that I might address a different day.

7. The PLAN's plans for the future--what will it look like in 2030?

Unfortunately the PLAN is not exactly the most open of navies, as I've repeatedly mentioned. There are no public debates over acquisitions programs, no big fleet shape plans, relatively little detail.
​
However, a few things are fairly sure bets or publicly announced.
​
China has repeatedly announced plans to build a six-carrier force, including the Type 001 and Type 002, but also a pair of Type 003 [already under construction] conventionally powered supercarriers and a pair of Type 004 nuclear powered supercarriers. However, it seems that the Type 004 is currently on hold. Why, exactly, is unclear, but it seems to be technical difficulties, which are not particularly surprising given that China's experience with nuclear maritime propulsion seem to be rather limited and have had poor results in their submarine fleet. The costs were also expected to be too high--China does not have an unlimited quantity of money, despite what it may flaunt, and nuclear carriers are expensive to develop especially given that China has not built a nuclear-powered surface ship before.
​
A new carrier-based fighter is almost certainly in the cards because the J-15 is pretty much useless. The FC-31 seems by far the most likely candidate but it could be another aircraft we haven't seen yet. The addition of this aircraft will greatly improve the PLAN's capabilities.
​
China also has two Type 075 amphibious assault ships/LHDs under construction, and I would expect this class to be much more prolific. These ships are much more affordable than the full carriers, and focus on areas in which China is particularly concerned--amphibious assaults, say, on islands in the South China Sea or on Taiwan, and anti-submarine warfare, which is of particular importance given that submarines cannot be easily halted with land-based anti-ship missiles and air-launched cruise missiles provided for in their area denial doctrine--submarines are one of the few things that can slip through that net.
​
The surface combatant fleet is likely to continue growing, but I am not sure if it will swell much beyond the ~23 Type 052D ships planned and the 8 Type 055s. We're likely to see the retirement of the classes preceding the Type 052C destroyer and the Type 054 frigate, and they may be offloaded to Bangladesh, Myanmar, or Pakistan--there is substantial precedent here, and it seems that China is interested in expanding the naval capabilities of its partners around India.
​
The submarine fleet is likely to see rapid expansion if the PLAN is satisfied with the Type 095 and Type 096 classes, and we're likely to see more diesel-electric subs built as well. Submarines are generally quite good at fighting submarines and conducting area-denial missions, and the large and capable subsurface forces of Japan, Korea, and the United States means that this has to be an area the PLAN invests more in--and the fact that several Southeast Asian nations are also looking at acquiring submarines makes the issue more pressing.

8. Conclusion

China has in the past decade gone from a third-rate navy to perhaps the greatest threat the US Navy has faced since the Second World War. This has significant geopolitical implications, and has resulted in neighbors scrambling to overhaul their naval forces. The growth of the PLAN means that the US can no longer easily defend Taiwan or the South China Sea, or any of China's littoral waters. This, more than anything else, is what has everyone scrambling in the US talking about "great-power competition" because denying access to the US Navy and working on power projection, an inherently naval thing, is essentially a clear sign that China is looking to directly compete with the United States. Underestimate the PLAN at your own peril.
​
I hope to have more detail and citations in future posts, but unfortunately the PLAN is very secretive [yes, I've said that fifty times already] and this is a pretty big topic to discuss without going into details about all sorts of naval tidbits. Thanks for reading the fourth post in what I hope will be a fairly substantial series, probably around ~12 posts.
​

9. Citations

James Holmes, "The Danger Zone In Naval Arms Races"
USNI, Report to Congress on Chinese Naval Modernization
Hans Kristensen, China's Noisy Nuclear Submarines
Eric Wertheim, China's Type 052D Destroyer is a potent adversary
Robert Farley, Let's Talk About The Chinese Navy's Type 055 Destroyer
Ryan Pickrell, Chinese fighter jet holding China back as it builds carrier fleet
Look, much more here is based on loose speculation, more unreliable sources, and stuff I've picked up over the years, because public info is limited. So take everything I say with a grain of salt, but understand that it's the best information I know of.

So before the version of The Living Daylights that we actually ended up getting, the original plan was to do a origin story for Bond, showing us how he became 007. Of course, Cubby Broccoli ended up vetoing that plan, saying that audiences weren't interested in a Bond prequel...though as we now know, his daughter ended up going back to a version of that plan with Casino Royale.
I first heard about this proposed origin film on another thread I'd done a short while back, and have been fascinated by it ever since. I scoured the net looking for a detailed treatment of the film, and ended up finding one just yesterday!
Be warned that this article is in French...but Google Translate can be your friend here :)
Here's a detailed breakdown of the entire treatment-
Part 1: https://www.commander007.net/2016/bond-15-rebooter-nest-jouer-part-1-2/
Part 2: https://www.commander007.net/2016/bond-15-rebooter-nest-jouer-part-2-2/
I'd recommend going through the entire treatment yourself as there is some interesting stuff here (even though its boring reading about the action scenes!) But here are the salient details:
Basically, the film is set in 1972. It starts with Bond as a Lieutanant in the Royal Navy. He's a 20-something naval intelligence officer who screws up a job due to his maverick tendency and ends up on the verge of being drummed out of the Navy. His dying grandfather suggests that with his attitude and potential, he'd be a better fit in the Secret Service and sends him off to meet M (who in this version, apparently was a one-time lover of Bond's aunt, Charmain).
So Bond meets M and joins the Secret Service. He's sent off to Singapore to team up with a guy named Burton Trevor, a 40-something veteran agent. They infiltrate the stronghold of a warlord named Kwang, posing as his bodyguards. They also meet a young woman named Betje, who's basically the main 'Bond girl' - she's a concubine of Kwang's and Bond starts an affair with her.
Bond soon learns that Trevor is part of the Double O section and that their mission is to assassinate Kwang. Trevor warns Bond against getting too personally involved with Betje.
Anyway, long story short, their cover is eventually blown, Bond, Betje and Trevor attempt to flee the stronghold, Trevor valiantly dies trying to save the other two, and Bond radios Trevor's CIA contact (you guessed it...Felix Leiter!) to order an attack, and then personally takes down the villains.
In the aftermath, Bond heads back to London to meet M and Bill Tanner (and a younger Miss Moneypenny) and for his efforts is promoted to 00 status. He's given Trevor's old number, 007, and is given a briefing for his next mission...to go to Jamaica and investigate Dr. No!
Its far from the perfect Bond film, reading the treatment, but I think it could have been an interesting story once they'd smoothed out some of the edges. It was written by Richard Maibaum, which makes it easy for me to imagine this as the 'canonical' origin story of the cinematic Bond. James is a lot more of a rookie and rougher around the edges than Craig's portrayal in CR (and I guess this is what Broccoli meant when he said that audiences didn't want a 'rookie Bond').
The idea of Bond being mentored by the previous 007 is an interesting one. Coincidentially (or perhaps not?), Anthony Horowitz' Forever and a Day, which tells the first 00 mission of the Fleming Bond, also involves James becoming 007 after the previous agent is killed (and though they don't team up on the page, we're told that Bond knew the man).
Honestly, if we ever get a Bond period piece, I wouldn't mind someone dusting off this idea!

TL;DR at the bottom
Hi guys, with the market rallying 20% from its "bottom", many people are expressing the sentiment that we should buy back into the market again because the "fed" or the "government" won't allow stocks to crash.
We will for sure see unprecedented actions taken by the fed and the government because they have both the motive and the political capital to enact such policies. However, I think this is a misguided reason to believe the market is currently making its "real" rally.
I am not not a permabear nor am I a permabull. I just try to objectively analyze the facts, apply a healthy dose of margin of safety, and then see if my conclusions are actionable.
For example, I posted my thesis on why we will enter a serious global economic downturn on Feb 9th 10 days before it happened. At the time we were at the height of the biggest bull market in our history, and I had gotten a lot of attacks on my thesis leading up to me consolidating my thoughts:
https://www.reddit.com/China_Flu/comments/f1fm6y/the_world_economy_will_enter_a_serious_downturn/
I continued adding more thoughts on things like the potential efficacy of Chloroquine 2 weeks before Trump announced it in a press conference and the media picked up on it, the potential collapse of American oil producers before the price war happened, casinos going under, helicopter money, bailouts, etc all before they were announced or the markets priced them in here:
https://www.reddit.com/China_Flu/comments/fede69/continued_thoughts_on_the_global_economic_impact/
And finally I talked about an upcoming inflection point coincidentally moments before Trump first announced Chloroquine/Hydroxychloroquine and 2 trading days before the "bottom" of the market:
https://www.reddit.com/stocks/comments/fleh7e/incoming_inflection_point_for_general_market/
So I'm perfectly happy to make bearish calls or bullish calls, they are dependent variables of independent and unbiased analysis. I hope I made a reasonable case for why I am not personally biased (although, for the sake of humanity, I do wish for progress and prosperity of course).
I think the market rally is largely a mirage, and we are not getting correct pricings. The rally is probably driven by two main sources:

• Capital displacement from monetary action
  
• Incorrect earnings modeling based on improper historic precedent.
  

So the capital displacement is relatively simple: If you're seeking shelter in "risk free" investments that has some yields, you're now competing with a buyer (federal reserve) that prints hundreds of billions up to whatever it wants. They're literally squeezing out capital from the finite treasuries.
If you want riskier high quality corporate bonds, the fed will be there.
If you want even equities, you're going to face competition for them in the future. At least that's what former chairwoman Jenet Yellen recently said about the possibility of expanding their powers to buy equities.
So money is getting squeezed into a smaller and smaller relative portion of the financial markets, and the artificial demand is driving yields down and prices up. I could write a whole thread about this, but let's stick with the explanation of price movement.
The second main reason for the recent rally is from institutional investors who are incorrectly modeling earnings/yield of equities. So the logic here is: trillions are injected into the economy (fiscal injections), those trillions will become earnings for companies at some multiplier of the original stimulus over x amount of time, and if we add this number to the unstimulated estimated earnings, we can model future earnings.
My issue with this model, is on two main assumptions:
The first assumption is the length of disruption caused by the threat of this virus.
This virus is not going to stop its serious disruption of behavior from economic actors. Especially not in a country like the US where the majority of people have a massive financial disincentive to seek out healthcare. Here's my logic:
For months I've been praising the governments and response of South Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan. With Taiwan being the absolute best at handling the virus. However, I have also been using them as my leading indicators for how the virus will progress and affect economic actors. What I have seen developing lately is not good.
Singapore is now calling for a shutdown, after they initially did a herculean job of containing their outbreak. I had hoped that they would develop procedures (that we can copy) needed to run an open economy while the threat of the virus looms in the background. But that is not what has happened. Instead, we are seeing growing numbers of new clusters forming, and quickly getting out of control. They are tightening and shutting down their economy rather than opening up more. This is our leading indicator. A government far more responsible and effective than us is resorting to shutting down.
Taiwan is faring better, but only because of their prohibitive ban on almost all foreign travelers (this is obviously devastating to their tourism sector and broader economy). Their economy and society remains open, with many if not most people having hardly any interruptions to their lives (aside from mask wearing). They are one of only 3 countries where all children are still going to school. However, even their economy is faltering as they try to balance the prohibitive actions needed to contain the virus and the economic need to keep things open. They are proposing an unprecedented stimulus/rescue package to bolster their economy. And I think it's a safe assumption that if they ever do open up to foreign travelers again, especially with covid19 having proliferated as it already has, then they will have to deal with massive outbreak clusters all over their island.
South Korea, which has probably the relatable and relevant model for us to copy, has recently extended its social distance campaign. South Korea is a far larger nation than Singapore or Taiwan. They have a climate similar to Seattle/New York. They had a major outbreak in Deagu but didn't shut their country down. They never even banned Chinese travelers, yes, they had Chinese tourists in their country while the outbreak was happening. They were among the first to widely use Hydroxychloroquine/chloroquine as a treatment for Covid19. They had among the lowest fatality rates. They contained their outbreak without shutting the whole country down.
Even South Korea can't truly return to normal and open their economy up.
So why, in our incredible American exceptionalism hubris, and far less competent leaders, do we believe we're going to come anywhere close to normalcy in the near future?
Let's look at the next assumption, that fiscal stimulus would end up as earnings for companies. There's no doubt some will end up as earnings, but only a small fraction of what is being modeled by those on Wall Street.
The average American don't even have $1000 in emergency funds, do we expect them to return to their normal consumption habits when they risk having hospital bills multiples of $1000 just from walking past the wrong person? Do you think Americans, as much as they love to spend, aren't going to put some of that stimulus check in their emergency funds rather than contribute it to the earning of some companies? Sure, there will be some "forced" spending of the money (food and necessities), but if anyone is modeling the multiplier effect from previous data, then they really don't appreciate how different this virus makes things. Even in the GFC, laid off people didn't really worry about the heightened threat of being hospitalized.
Finally, some investors believe the Fed and the government literally will do anything to keep the numbers up. If this is true, you should be buying silver (or gold), not stocks.
Monetary actions can be reversed relatively easily. They are far more dynamic tools. Fiscal actions are not. You put money in the hands of spenders, that money is gonna circulate. And you really don't have an easy way of reversing that. If we think the government is going to keep handing out stimulus checks, grants to businesses, and other fiscal stimulus, then the inflation predicted from the GFC will come true for this crisis.
The fall out of inflation will be difficult to truly understand. But I do think inflation will be disruptive enough to the economy that inflation hedge assets will outperform other assets at least in the short term. For example, if inflation goes to 5%, who's going to lend to companies for less than inflation? With costlier debt, equity yield goes down, and again, what investor wants yields less than inflation? Inflation is going to cause all kinds of disruptions. I think the disruptions will come down to less liquidity (credit will vanish with uncertain inflation) and higher economic friction (less efficiency).
So if the response to why the market has to go up is continuous fiscal (and some monetary) actions to prop up spending and earnings, then the question is how will fiscal actions be reversed? How do we get that money out after things go back to "normal"?
I think if we see equities rise from here, it'll be reflective of inflation rather than inflation-adjusted earnings. Silver would be the play here.
I have a lot more thoughts on this, especially on the time it takes to turn the gears of the financial system and why the inertia is moving us deeper into global recession, not out of it, but I'm running out of time and must end here.
TL;DR this is a fake rally, and if anyone really expects prices to continue rallying, buy silver instead

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3 days ago, Revenue Universe had their double campaign and Huuuge Casino worth jumped from 3000 to 6000. It may have been higher on other sites or wall, but this was the first time I saw it this high. I actually failed this offer a month back on IOS for 5200 because I ran out of chips at around level 49 and just decided to quit. I decided to bite the bullet on this one, despite my failure, and decided to retry it (this time on Android). To my surprise, 3 days later, I was able to reach level 200. I have also included tips at the bottom of page for anyone who just want to know stuff like how to not run out of chips, when to use your lottery tickets, how much to bet, etc.
IMPORTANT EDIT: This is unconfirmed because I haven't checked on it but according to a few users, Huuuge Casino and other similar casino games have a small safeguard secret prize before level 50 that grants you chips during some level ups when you are under 20 million so it is almost impossible to lose all your chips. That way, you can max bet all the way to level 50 and if you are lucky, you may end up with a few hundred million of chips by then (again I haven't confirmed this yet, but I'm currently doing the Billionaire Casino offer (which is literally a carbon copy of Huuge Casino and vice versa in terms of slot machine, layout, etc) and this seems to be a thing. In terms of the hundred of millions of chips part, that is all dependent on Jackpot luck so take that part with a grain of salt).

Some stats

Time it took me	62 hours. If you did the simple math, that means of the 3 days I used to finish this offer. my android phone was on most of the time. The only time my phone wasn't on was during the last few hours when I was asleep because it turned off while I was spinning on Huuuge Diamond since I didn't want the offer to credit in the middle of the night. However, there is a catch. I used an auto clicker and bought the chips necessary to complete the offer. My phone didn't get all that hot during the 62 hours it was on, but just in case, if you are going to be like me and keep a phone on for 62 hours straight, be sure the phone is lying on something cool like a fan so the phone doesn't overheat.
Other apps used	Yes, I used an auto clicker. Otherwise, it would've taken a lot longer, more attention, and mind-numbingly frustrating. More info about that down below. For the autoclicker, I just downloaded the one that was the first result off of the play store. It was very simple too use.
Amount of chips used	Overall, I had about maybe 1.5-1.6 billion chips in total and used about 1-1.1 billion chips to get to level 200. I don't know if I was lucky or not, so this number can be lower or higher depending on luck but if you buy the 6.99 or 9.99 chip pack, there won't be much of a problem.
How much money spent	I spent on the 9.99 beginners pack that gave 1.3 billion chips, making for a 50 dollar profit. According to other posts I've seen, there seems to be a 6.99 pack you can get once you hit level 100 which should be enough chips to get to 200, but I never received the deal for some reason and I didn't seem to be the only one. Was it worth it? If you are impatient like me, using 10 dollars instead of spending days grinding out 1 billion chips sounds worth it in my book. However, for those who do not want to spend money, this offer can still be easily completed without spending money. Just be prepared to grind out a little over a billion chips.

​

My Level Breakdown

Here's a breakdown of what I did, but if you've read other posts regarding Huuuge Casino, this is mainly going to be repeat information.
Level 1-50 (Or when you have 100-125 million chips): Huuuge Diamond slot.
EDIT: This section maybe obsolete if the secret prize is a confirmed feature. If that is the case, just max bet to level 50, but the amount of chips you will receive will vary. If you want to stay safe, then just 10k bet. In exchange for time, you'll have a more stable end outcome.
This is where I spent my time for the first 50 levels. As to the reason why, on Huuuge Diamond, you can auto spin indefinitely. Nothing will stop the autospin, not even the level up notifications or the charm packs they give you every stupid milestone level up. I realized this when I forgot to check my phone after 6 hours and it was still going at it, so I left it over night and in the morning, it was still spinning. I would say it took me 30 hours or so to get to level 50 (just my estimate since I wasn't really diligently timing everything)
To the people who already finished this offer, they may be wondering "why 50 and not 65? 65 is when the Singapore Roulette opens up." The answer to that was because when I hit level 50, I had about 143 million chips (how I got this much will be explained in the tips, but it's honestly really simple. I never went over a 10k bid) and xp from slots is extremely slow. That's why once you hit maybe 125 million chips or so, it is good to switch to the Melbourne Roulette. By the way, SAVE YOUR TICKETS UNTIL YOU REACH LEVEL 100. According to another post I read, the rewards from the lottery is increased once you hit level 100 so it's best to save your lottery tickets until then.
Level 50-65: Melbourne roulette. Go to the roulette menu and hold down on the Melbourne roulette to start a private room. Bet half on red and half on black. That way, you will only lose if it hits the only 2 greens on the roulette. The max bid here is 1 million, so with over 100 million chips, you shouldn't be hurting for chips. This part, unlike the slots, should go by like it's nothing (I don't remember how long, but probably 1-3 hours). This was also around the time I started using the auto clicker because it will become tedious to tap on re-bet and ready every 5 seconds. With the autoclicker, for these 15 or so levels, you don't have to pay ANY attention if you don't want to. But once you reach level 65, it's time to move onto the final step.
Level 65-200: Singapore roulette. Around this time, I lost maybe 10 million chips from 50-65, so I was down to 133-134 million. Over here, max bet is 10 million, so put 5 million on red and 5 million on black. This was enough to get me to level 120 surprisingly, but at level 100, I started spinning in the lottery so I received more chips there and a 24 hour 2x experience bonus so that should also be taken into account (I also had a small unlucky streak where it green 2 times in a row a couple of times within 7 or spins so that was frustrating...). At level 120, I spent 9.99 to buy a pack that had 1.3 billion chips in. For those who do not want to spend money, this is where the grind begins for 1 billion chips.
Earlier on in these levels, it will be easier to level up and it will take longer to level up as you go higher, but honestly, it isn't that bad until it level 190. I don't know if it was just me, but level 190 to 200 felt waaaaay longer than level 180-190. For those of you curious, from level 199 to level 200, it took around 22-25 minute. In terms of leftover chips, I had 680 million left.

Tips

Join a good club! For those of you who don't want to spend money and for those who do, this is one of the most important rules as you can get a lot of free chips easily from your club members jackpots. I was able to get maybe 60 million or more just from collecting off the club wall because my club was fairly active. While searching for a club, filter your search options to Club level 20, anyone can join, and club members between 90-100. Even if there is only 10-15 members active in the club out of 100, that is still a good club to be a part in.
Do not use your tickets until you reach level 100. Your winnings from lottery will increase once you hit level 100. After using your tickets, you will most likely get a 2x exp bonus as one of your rewards. Use this time well (From level 100-200, I got 3 2x exp bonuses. With all the lottery tickets accumulated up till this point, you\re bound to get at least 1).
Probably obvious, but do not bet more than 10k on Huuuge Diamond. I can not stress this enough. The reason why I lost all my chips the first time I did this offer was because I was cocky and kept winning big with 50-100k bids, but that soon went down the gutter the higher level I got. Bet low, win high.
My slot machine of choice was Huuuge Diamond, but I think, honestly, any machine with a 10k bid can work, but I am not sure on this. I think this is also a good one to grind chips. I think the max jackpot, if you don't get the main jackpot on the top of the screen, is 1.6 million with a 10k bid, so it is still respectable. If anyone else knows of a better machine to grind on, please let us all know.
This website https://gamehunters.club/huuuge-casino/share-links gives you free chips if redeemed on the device you are playing Huuuge Casino on. I honestly did not need to use this site as the chips I bought were enough and the site lags my already super slow phone so it was a hassle to click on the reward, open the app to claim, and switch back.
I may have forgotten to add some things, so if anything comes up, I'll be sure to update. This was meant to give people a sort of guideline to an offer that I have seen given some people frustration (me included because this is the second time I did it, first time being unsuccessful). Once I hit 200, I was instantly credited with no pending. For those willing to spend for the $6.99 or $9.99 pack, this offer can be completed between 60-70 hours, give or take. For those who do not want to spend money, I would say to double the expected time, but finishing in 2 weeks is still doable. Good luck everyone and I hope this guide lightens a bit off your shoulders.
P.S. Sorry for the long guide. I talk a lot lol

TL;DR at the bottom
Hi guys, with the market rallying 20% from its "bottom", many people are expressing the sentiment that we should buy back into the market again because the "fed" or the "government" won't allow stocks to crash.
We will for sure see unprecedented actions taken by the fed and the government because they have both the motive and the political capital to enact such policies. However, I think this is a misguided reason to believe the market is currently making its "real" rally.
I am not not a permabear nor am I a permabull. I just try to objectively analyze the facts, apply a healthy dose of margin of safety, and then see if my conclusions are actionable.
For example, I posted my thesis on why we will enter a serious global economic downturn on Feb 9th 10 days before it happened. At the time we were at the height of the biggest bull market in our history, and I had gotten a lot of attacks on my thesis leading up to me consolidating my thoughts:
https://www.reddit.com/China_Flu/comments/f1fm6y/the_world_economy_will_enter_a_serious_downturn/
I continued adding more thoughts on things like the potential efficacy of Chloroquine 2 weeks before Trump announced it in a press conference and the media picked up on it, the potential collapse of American oil producers before the price war happened, casinos going under, helicopter money, bailouts, etc all before they were announced or the markets priced them in here:
https://www.reddit.com/China_Flu/comments/fede69/continued_thoughts_on_the_global_economic_impact/
And finally I talked about an upcoming inflection point coincidentally moments before Trump first announced Chloroquine/Hydroxychloroquine and 2 trading days before the "bottom" of the market:
https://www.reddit.com/stocks/comments/fleh7e/incoming_inflection_point_for_general_market/
So I'm perfectly happy to make bearish calls or bullish calls, they are dependent variables of independent and unbiased analysis. I hope I made a reasonable case for why I am not personally biased (although, for the sake of humanity, I do wish for progress and prosperity of course).
I think the market rally is largely a mirage, and we are not getting correct pricings. The rally is probably driven by two main sources:

• Capital displacement from monetary action
  
• Incorrect earnings modeling based on improper historic precedent.
  

So the capital displacement is relatively simple: If you're seeking shelter in "risk free" investments that has some yields, you're now competing with a buyer (federal reserve) that prints hundreds of billions up to whatever it wants. They're literally squeezing out capital from the finite treasuries.
If you want riskier high quality corporate bonds, the fed will be there.
If you want even equities, you're going to face competition for them in the future. At least that's what former chairwoman Jenet Yellen recently said about the possibility of expanding their powers to buy equities.
So money is getting squeezed into a smaller and smaller relative portion of the financial markets, and the artificial demand is driving yields down and prices up. I could write a whole thread about this, but let's stick with the explanation of price movement.
The second main reason for the recent rally is from institutional investors who are incorrectly modeling earnings/yield of equities. So the logic here is: trillions are injected into the economy (fiscal injections), those trillions will become earnings for companies at some multiplier of the original stimulus over x amount of time, and if we add this number to the unstimulated estimated earnings, we can model future earnings.
My issue with this model, is on two main assumptions:
The first assumption is the length of disruption caused by the threat of this virus.
This virus is not going to stop its serious disruption of behavior from economic actors. Especially not in a country like the US where the majority of people have a massive financial disincentive to seek out healthcare. Here's my logic:
For months I've been praising the governments and response of South Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan. With Taiwan being the absolute best at handling the virus. However, I have also been using them as my leading indicators for how the virus will progress and affect economic actors. What I have seen developing lately is not good.
Singapore is now calling for a shutdown, after they initially did a herculean job of containing their outbreak. I had hoped that they would develop procedures (that we can copy) needed to run an open economy while the threat of the virus looms in the background. But that is not what has happened. Instead, we are seeing growing numbers of new clusters forming, and quickly getting out of control. They are tightening and shutting down their economy rather than opening up more. This is our leading indicator. A government far more responsible and effective than us is resorting to shutting down.
Taiwan is faring better, but only because of their prohibitive ban on almost all foreign travelers (this is obviously devastating to their tourism sector and broader economy). Their economy and society remains open, with many if not most people having hardly any interruptions to their lives (aside from mask wearing). They are one of only 3 countries where all children are still going to school. However, even their economy is faltering as they try to balance the prohibitive actions needed to contain the virus and the economic need to keep things open. They are proposing an unprecedented stimulus/rescue package to bolster their economy. And I think it's a safe assumption that if they ever do open up to foreign travelers again, especially with covid19 having proliferated as it already has, then they will have to deal with massive outbreak clusters all over their island.
South Korea, which has probably the relatable and relevant model for us to copy, has recently extended its social distance campaign. South Korea is a far larger nation than Singapore or Taiwan. They have a climate similar to Seattle/New York. They had a major outbreak in Deagu but didn't shut their country down. They never even banned Chinese travelers, yes, they had Chinese tourists in their country while the outbreak was happening. They were among the first to widely use Hydroxychloroquine/chloroquine as a treatment for Covid19. They had among the lowest fatality rates. They contained their outbreak without shutting the whole country down.
Even South Korea can't truly return to normal and open their economy up.
So why, in our incredible American exceptionalism hubris, and far less competent leaders, do we believe we're going to come anywhere close to normalcy in the near future?
Let's look at the next assumption, that fiscal stimulus would end up as earnings for companies. There's no doubt some will end up as earnings, but only a small fraction of what is being modeled by those on Wall Street.
The average American don't even have $1000 in emergency funds, do we expect them to return to their normal consumption habits when they risk having hospital bills multiples of $1000 just from walking past the wrong person? Do you think Americans, as much as they love to spend, aren't going to put some of that stimulus check in their emergency funds rather than contribute it to the earning of some companies? Sure, there will be some "forced" spending of the money (food and necessities), but if anyone is modeling the multiplier effect from previous data, then they really don't appreciate how different this virus makes things. Even in the GFC, laid off people didn't really worry about the heightened threat of being hospitalized.
Finally, some investors believe the Fed and the government literally will do anything to keep the numbers up. If this is true, you should be buying silver (or gold), not stocks.
Monetary actions can be reversed relatively easily. They are far more dynamic tools. Fiscal actions are not. You put money in the hands of spenders, that money is gonna circulate. And you really don't have an easy way of reversing that. If we think the government is going to keep handing out stimulus checks, grants to businesses, and other fiscal stimulus, then the inflation predicted from the GFC will come true for this crisis.
The fall out of inflation will be difficult to truly understand. But I do think inflation will be disruptive enough to the economy that inflation hedge assets will outperform other assets at least in the short term. For example, if inflation goes to 5%, who's going to lend to companies for less than inflation? With costlier debt, equity yield goes down, and again, what investor wants yields less than inflation? Inflation is going to cause all kinds of disruptions. I think the disruptions will come down to less liquidity (credit will vanish with uncertain inflation) and higher economic friction (less efficiency).
So if the response to why the market has to go up is continuous fiscal (and some monetary) actions to prop up spending and earnings, then the question is how will fiscal actions be reversed? How do we get that money out after things go back to "normal"?
I think if we see equities rise from here, it'll be reflective of inflation rather than inflation-adjusted earnings. Silver would be the play here.
I have a lot more thoughts on this, especially on the time it takes to turn the gears of the financial system and why the inertia is moving us deeper into global recession, not out of it, but I'm running out of time and must end here.
TL;DR this is a fake rally, and if anyone really expects prices to continue rallying, buy silver instead

I saw quite a lot of deals on graphics cards on AliExpress I was about to order something above $100 like RX 580 or RX 480. I thought there's good chance it won't come due to logistics or held by the customs as I had done a lot of research on people having problems with Pakistani customs especially a lot of people were against getting something heavy like a GPU (though it's not that heavy as people like to portray it is). Prior to this I ordered thermal paste(something very small so that I could attempt a revival on my current faulty GPU) somewhere around March,2020 it never arrived probably due to the cheap shipping but I never bothered to get a refund particularly because it was only a dollar.I researched on people's experience of buying a graphics card from Aliexpress in Pakistan and they're was very little to find and a lot of the forums people never bought the graphics card and were mostly speculating so I thought I'd give it a try to see who's right and who's wrong. On May 31 I ordered an RX 470(a decent graphics card something not to expensive not to cheap perfect if it went missing it'd be a small gamble if I got it would be a huge gain) took a few days for the seller to ship out of the country somewhere around July it got despatched to Pakistan from Singapore. It was taking too long I was rolling through the last few days I was just about to submit a refund form to Aliexpress last moment but checked the Pakistani post tracking and found out that it reached Karachi. I canceled the request and waited a few days it's position changed from
6:56 AM
**KARACHI INTERNATIONAL MAIL OFFICE (IMO Letter)**Receive item at office of exchange in destination country
7:32 AM
**KARACHI INTERNATIONAL MAIL OFFICE (IMO Letter)**Send item to domestic location in destination country LAHORE FOREING POST
to
6:48 AM
IMO Lahore Receive item at office of exchange in destination country
7:46 AM
IMO Lahore Send item to customs in destination country
pretty much stayed like that. I called Pakistan Post for more information and they basically said that it's in the customs you have to go there pay custom duty and retrieve it . I tried to file a dispute against the seller but AliExpress told me to f off which is understandable as the GPU did arrive in Pakistan. Now I'm not going there for a simple reason is that the pandemic is still at large,parents are high risk and rather lose money than risk my parent's' lives. So what did I learn ordering from AliExpress and reading a lot of stuff online is that

1. You should try to get the thing your looking for locally and if you have to pay a bit extra then pay it. It's not worth the hassle if not try your luck at Aliexpress.

2.If you want to start a business on Aliexpress you should buy in it bulk + DHL/Fedex shipping (expensive option probably better for small items) or buy it through an AliExpress agent.
My tips for people that are just going to order from AliExpress anyway are

1. You have to wait a really long time some people get their packages in 2-3 weeks but some get it 2-3 months so patience is key
2. Don't shy away from getting a refund sellers' are business people if you think something is wrong or the parcel is not coming get your refund these guy's make money everyday they have sellers and buyers
3. If you live in Lahore don't bother Lahore IMO(the customs )is considered the worst out of all the customs department in Pakistan.They don't even answer the phones 100% sure that if you order from Lahore at least inner city Lahore your package will get held by the customs regardless of how big or small it is basically it goes like IslamabadKarachiLahore.Lahore being the worst possibly in the country not being biased done a lot of reading on forums.Note that I'm not trying to diss on AliExpress/Alibaba I think it's a pretty good platform for business people that know how to deal with the authorities in Pakistan but if your not buying in bulk or you can't find it in Pakistan it's pretty silly to buy it on AliExpress. If you went to a casino and put some chips into slot machine hopping to win high stakes in reality you get nothing that has been my experience with AliExpress. Some people have gotten their things from AliExpress. I read saw some reviews of Pakistanies that got their graphics card RX 580 8 GB from AliExpress (I don't know whether if they had to go the customs or not). So my personal experience(your experience might be different ) with AliExpress hasn't been very good in Pakistan and same has been with Pakistan post so I'm not going to order anything from there anytime soon.I feel going to the customs office or paying customs fee kinda defeats the whole purpose of online shopping.Do I think shopping locally is the best? No you can get scammed a lot in Pakistan if you are not careful best is to tell your relative abroad to buy it for you .I bought my previous GPU with only 1 year warranty when in fact I could've gotten 3 years of warranty and it's been over a year my GPU is broken and yeah if I had 3 years it could've been okay. For people wanting to buy a Gigabyte GPU you buy it from https://easetec.com.pk/ they are an official vendor. My advice is the same for for any other website like AliExpress.

As of Today (Feb18) Singapore has 77 cases, HK has 60. On the 12th of Feb, Hong Kong had 49 Cases, while Singapore had 47 cases.
Is it that :
1) Singapore has better contact tracing
2) There's more spread in Singapore compared to HK?
3) Singapore had more imported cases (24) than Hong Kong (15)
If (2) Do you think it's because HK people prefer to wear mask (despite mask being ineffective)
EDIT: My concerns
I'm trying to gain more understanding about why there are more cases in Singapore than in Hong Kong.
I'm very worried for 2 reasons.
I'm currently living in Hong Kong, where the contact tracing is lousy and the quarantine system is a joke. HOWEVER, despite there being MORE cases than Singapore 6 days ago, there seems to be higher spread in Singapore.
Reason A) Does that mean I have more infected people roaming around HK spreading this, who are not getting treatment / quarantine in HONG KONG?
I'm also aware that viruses do NOT like SUN / HEAT / HUMIDITY, which pretty much describes Singapore (it's 14 C in HK now)
Reason B) Does Covid-19 spread well DESPITE sun/heat/humidity, and if so, will it mean that it's not going to go away in the summer like SARS?