I am 35 years old, make $56,000 ($231k combined), live in Seattle, and work in higher ed administration
Note: I was technically supposed to post this earlier this week, but noticed that no one was signed up for today (plus I was super busy earlier), so I'm posting a bit late, under a throwaway account! Fair warning: I'm VERY verbose, so this will be long! Section One: Assets and Debt As I mentioned above, I make $56k per year as an administrator in higher education. My husband (K) just got a raise to making $155k per year. He works as a lawyer, has been in the workforce for about 12 years. I won't get into too many details but he works for a small boutique firm, not Biglaw. He also sometimes gets a yearly bonus of around $10k-20k but it's not guaranteed or anything like that. K and I have totally combined finances, so the below numbers are for both of us. I have a humanities PhD but I decided to leave academia and find an alt-ac job. My current position has good work-life balance (I never work past 5 pm), but pays terribly and my university is very badly run. I'm hoping to leave higher education all together in the future and am currently enrolled in a certificate program to try to make a career transition to instructional design. The big elephant in the room is that my husband, K, makes a lot more money than me. When we first met, he was paying off massive amounts of student loans and making much less, and I was debt free with a lot of savings, so we both spent about the same amount. Now he makes 3x what I make and we are both debt-free, so the difference is much more noticeable. We do argue about money sometimes (more in the past), but the reality is that I have a humanities PhD and will likely never out earn him, and he knew that when I married him, lol. Because of all the labor I do around the house and in our lives to support him as he works a much more intense job, I was very clear that I believed we should split our finances equally as soon as we got married. We don't have separate accounts and we generally check in with one another whenever we are planning to spend more than $100. This system works for us for now. I also want to address the question about parental or family support. Although I technically paid all of my own bills since I got my Bachelor's degree, my parents supported me a lot by paying for my flights home to visit at Christmas or in the summer as Xmas presents/birthday presents. My parents also paid for my undergraduate degree (and K's parents paid for his undergraduate degree as well). They also gave us about $15k to pay for our wedding. Finally, my parents recently gave me $20k as an "early inheritance." They told me they plan to do this every year (depending on the stock market). We put this money into a brokerage. I don't consider my parents rich, as they both worked hourly jobs in health care my entire life (as a nurse and respiratory therapist - both with only associate's degrees). We never owned a new car, when we went on vacation we stayed in hostels , and shopped almost exclusively at Goodwill. But they scrimped and saved and now they have over $1 million in a retirement account. So I want to acknowledge my financial privilege in that I came from this kind of background. K's parents are similar. Retirement Balance: $186k (combination of 401k, 403b, 457, 2 Roth IRAs, and taxable brokerage account). Equity: None, we rent. Savings account balance: Approximately $45k. Checking account balance: Right now, around 8k. Credit card debt: Right now, around $3k. But we pay it off each month with our checking account balance. Student loan debt: $0. We finally paid off my husband’s law school loans (around $130k), last year. I didn’t have any student loans from undergrad (parents paid) and my MA & PhD were fully funded. Section Two: Income Income Progression: I’ve been working in my current field for 3 years. I started off making about $53k and got tiny 2% “merit increases” twice. Then in July my payroll title was changed, which triggered a required raise of about $2k. (I am dramatically underpaid). Before my current position, I was in academia. I worked as a visiting assistant professor for one year at my alma mater (made $50k for 9 months of work) and before that I was a graduate student for 7 years. I was paid $18k-21k in stipends each year and my tuition & benefits were covered. Luckily, I lived in a very low cost of living area and this was enough for me to live on without going into debt. I got my PhD in 2017. Before I was a graduate student, I taught English in Japan for three years and made around $36k per year. In high school and college, I had random jobs that provided grocery/spending money, but I was lucky enough to have parents that paid my tuition and my rent in college. I’m currently trying to make a career change (as you will see in my diary) and enrolled in a certificate program which runs from Autumn 2020 to Spring 2021 in order to help with that. Main Job Monthly Take Home: $7,634. This probably seems low relative to our joint income, but we max out our 401k (K) and 403b (me). I work for the state government, which means I’m also eligible for something called a Deferred Compensation Plan (457b). This is basically the same as a 401k but you can withdraw contributions and gains from the account at any age without penalty (of course, you still have to pay taxes). I also max this out, and the limit is the same as a 401k/403b - $19.5k. Also this number is before K’s raise is accounted for. It won’t increase until his end of February paycheck. Other deductions - I have health insurance taken out (about $80 a month for me, K’s firm covers his premiums) and taxes. WA has no state taxes, so it’s only federal taxes. I used to have to pay $50 / month for a bus pass (K's was free), but I don’t pay any longer because I’m working from home during COVID. Final note - the sum I mentioned in the headline includes a variable bonus my husband gets. My base pay is $56k and his is $155k (as of February 1). This year he also got a bonus of $20k, which is set up a bit strangely. About $4k of this was structured as a 3% matching contribution to his 401k and the rest was taxable income. In small law firms, it’s unusual to get any 401k match so this was nice. Side Gig Monthly Take Home: None. Any Other Monthly Income Here: We get some interest from our savings account… like $25 a month. Section Three: Expenses Rent: Rent comes to approximately $2,050 total for a one-bedroom apartment. Rent itself is $1886, then we have pet rent ($25 per month), bicycle parking ($15 a month) and water / sewage / gas, which is usually $120-150 (variable cost). Renters insurance: $157.76, paid annually. $13 a month. Retirement contribution: In addition to the 401k, 403b, and 457, which all come out before taxes, we max out our Roth IRAs. That means $500 each per month per person (for a yearly total of $6k each). As I noted up top, we match out our 401k and 403b (19,500 each) and our 457. My employee also offers a 7.5% match. K's employee offers a 3% match but it is included in his yearly bonus so it's not guaranteed (confusing). Savings contribution: We put $500 per month into our emergency fund. We also put about $860 a month into our “sinking fund,” which covers large and small annual or sporadic purchases such as vacations, gifts, Amazon Prime renewal, car insurance and renters insurance, etc. Investment contribution: $875 per month into a taxable brokerage at Vanguard. In total, we save about 47% of our gross income. We can do this because we keep our housing cost low relative to our high income, we don’t have any debt remaining, we don’t have any kids or parents who need financial support, and we’re very privileged in a lot of ways. We are hoping to FIRE within 10 years. Debt payments: None. Donations: We budget $100 per month for donations, which includes one-time donations as well as some reoccurring donations. My husband does pro bono work as well. I would like to increase this by quite a bit, but I still have a hard time budgeting for donations because I spent 7 years living on approximately $20k a year. To go from that to making more than 10x that amount within 3-4 years is obviously something that I am very privileged for, but it is still hard for me emotionally to comprehend at times. Electric: ~$50-100 (billed every other month) Wifi/Cable/Landline: An extortionate $87.12 for slow internet that only works for Zoom calls about half the time. Do I really live in one of the tech cities of the future? Cellphone: $170 (This includes both service and paying off two new iPhones. We could have paid them off up front, but it was actually cheaper by like $50 to go on a payment plan.) Subscriptions: BritBox ($7.70), Spotify ($16.50), HBOMax ($16.50), We Hate Movies Patreon (my favorite podcast - $8.81). My parents pay for Netflix and my sister pays for Hulu, and we all share. Gym membership: None. K and I both run and do yoga with YouTube videos. Before the pandemic, we went to yoga classes pretty frequently in person. I’d like to do some online synchronous yoga classes but find it hard to make time. Pet expenses: Varies, but I budget $50 per month and also include an emergency fund for my cat’s vet bills in our sinking fund. She’s 11 years old and probably asthmatic, so I know her vet bills are going to increase over time. Car payment / insurance: We own our car outright. Insurance billed yearly is $2,097, about $174 per month. Regular therapy: $0 Paid hobbies: Nothing regular, sporadic language classes and art supplies. Other expenses: Right now I’m doing a certificate to hopefully help with a career change. The total cost for tuition is about $5k and we already saved it up (included in our 'sinking fund') basically through spending less during the pandemic. I’ve paid two quarters so far, and the last quarter (due in March) will be a bit more - about $2.3k. __________ Day 1 Morning: I wake up at 5:30 am. Ever since the pandemic, my sleep schedule has been shot. At first, I was so happy not to have to leave the house at 7:15 for my 45 minute bus commute and I slept in a lot. But the stress (and maybe getting old?) has made me an early riser, no matter how much I try to sleep in. I do value my early mornings with just me, my cat, and my coffee, though. I start work at 8 am and begin by triaging my emails. I have a bunch of deadlines this week, so it’s busier than usual. My job tends to be very seasonal, and sometimes I have a ton of work and sometimes I have none and can work on other longer-term projects. I have a piece of toast for breakfast and place a Whole Foods delivery order for the following day at 10:30 am. We made a meal plan and put everything in the cart the day before ($117.36, including tip). Afternoon: I have my lunch break from noon to 1 pm. It doesn’t really matter when I take my lunch break, since I’m salaried, but the others in my office are hourly so in the before times we used to always close our office during the same time. I have a piece of leftover delivery pizza and some spinach risotto that I made a few days earlier. I also have half a brownie – the last one from a batch I made a few days ago (K gets the other half). He also has leftovers for lunch. I should say at this point that both K and I are lucky enough to have been working almost entirely from home since early March. An area near Seattle was one of the first places to get hit by COVID-19, and my state and both of our employers have been taking it very seriously ever since. Working from home hasn’t always been easy since we live in a 600-square foot apartment. Also, there is a three-story townhouse being built directly next door to us and I can hear the pounding in my dreams at this point. Around 2 pm, I go for a 2-mile run. I feel like some money diarists tend to toss off things like “oh, I went for an easy 7 mile run,” at the drop of a hat, so I want to be clear – running for 2 miles isn’t easy for me; it’s exhausting, annoying, sweaty, and generally gross. Also I am very slow. But it has kept me sane during quarantine. Meanwhile, my husband goes to our local pet store to get an enzymatic cleaner (our cat peed in one of our suitcases… I think it’s probably a lost cause, but it was basically brand new, so worth a try) and special weight-loss cat food. Our cat is an 11-year-old rescue from the Humane Society and she is a chonky girl. We had to sign a waiver when we adopted her, saying that we understood that she was very overweight, lol. Our vet recommended a special diet food, rather than just restricting her intake as we have been doing, so we will give it a try ($78). My husband also stops buy our local wine store and picks up two bottles. We’ve been doing a dry January, so this will be our first drink for a while ($27.53). I have a phone interview scheduled for 4 pm – just a preliminary interview with an internal recruiter. It’s the first ‘corporate’ job interview I’ve ever had, since I’ve been in academia my entire life. I’m trying to make a pivot into instructional design / training and development. I’m just excited to get an interview. It seems to go pretty well, but who knows. They tell me they will probably get back to me by the end of this week. Evening: My husband whips up a random meal of fridge remnants – pesto pasta with sausage and a fridge salad with feta and bell peppers. It’s pretty tasty with a little Sauvignon Blanc. During dinner, we play a card game we call gin rummy, although it bears no resemblance to the actual game. After dinner, I make a chocolate cake with orange buttercream frosting and we watch Cobra Kai. Daily total: $222.89 Day 2 Morning: Up early again, a piece of toast for breakfast (very exciting). We’re out of eggs until our Whole Foods order arrives. I’m working on creating some tedious but necessary spreadsheets this morning. Noon: Our Whole Foods order arrives around noon. Excitement! They’ve given us a half-rotten bag of romaine lettuce and substituted pecans for hazelnuts. I should probably just double mask and go to Trader Joe’s myself (our regular spot, only a 5-minute walk from my apartment). I’m just getting anxious about these new variants. I have leftover meatloaf and spinach risotto again for lunch. Lots of meetings and more organizing spreadsheets in the afternoon. Around 3 pm, I go for my daily ritual - a 20-minute walk around my neighborhood. It’s still raining slightly but I need to get out. Halfway through the walk, I get an email from my apartment manager telling me the apartment will no longer accept debit card payments, direct deposit, or credit card payments for paying rent. In other words, only checks or money orders (?!). Ugh. Our lease is up in 4 months and we will not be renewing our lease. Our last apartment manager was a gambling addict who may have been stealing people’s identities, but by God, he kept things working. Ever since they fired him, this place has been going downhill. Evening: I check my bank statements to update my budget spreadsheet and realize that I have been billed the wrong amount of rent. They actually charged me less than they should have. I don’t trust my apartment manager not to start charging me a late fee or something for this, so I call them up. They are baffled by how to fix this, which you would think would be the one thing you would want to get right, if you’re renting out apartments. K cooks dinner – steak with a Roquefort sauce and glazed brussels sprouts. It’s from a French cookbook we recently bought and it is delicious. I work on classwork for my certificate program while he cooks. After dinner, I do the dishes and buy the 13th season of RuPaul’s Drag Race. I watch the first episode – lots of shocking twists and turns! I’m planning to watch the rest of the episodes together with my younger sister, M ($22.01). Daily total: $22.01 Day 3 Morning: K has an 8 am dentist appointment, so he takes off early. He already paid for the work last month, so there’s no charge. I have a piece of toast for breakfast and get to work checking my emails. It’s 8:20 am and the construction crew building a townhouse next door is blasting mariachi music. I’m glad someone is having fun. At least the sun is coming out. Someone at work has made a critical error, but it wasn’t me, thank God. I was the one who found out about it, but it’s still going to cause a big old headache for me. I’m ready to be done with this job. K and I go for a run so that I can exhaust myself enough to no longer be furious about said careless error. Noon: I have leftover spinach risotto and meatloaf again – exciting. I’m busy at work but frankly, not a lot going on other than that. Still no word about fixing my rent payments. I’m not really willing to pursue this any further at this point. Evening: I start making chili (Turkey Chili from the NY Times) and cornbread (from my new cookbook, Jubilee). K is doing some work on our investments when he announces that, somehow, a transfer was scheduled from our checking account to our savings account of $55k (?!) We obviously don’t have $55k in our checking account, so we start frantically trying to figure out what’s going on. Numerous phone calls later, we still don’t know if that was a hack, if my husband somehow mistakenly scheduled the transfer himself, or if the bank messed it up. Either way, it doesn’t seem like any harm was done since the bank with our checking account just declined the transaction. But it seems really strange and worrisome. We get to work changing the passwords on all of our accounts, just in case it was some kind of hack. After dinner (and chocolate cake), I have a Zoom happy hour with a local friend. We occasionally see each other outside but it’s nice to have a longer chat from the comfort of our living rooms. We both love murder mysteries, so we signed up for a service where a company sends us letters with clues and we try to solve the mystery together. It’s a fun way to stay connected and look forward to something during the pandemic. The service costs about $15 per month, but I paid for it in lump sum for 3 months, so it’s not included in my budget above. I drink some wine and we vent about work (we work at the same place) before getting started on the puzzle. Daily total: $0 Day 4 Morning: I sleep in a bit, which is nice. Get up around 7 am. My parents are both getting their 2nd vaccine today – they’re both in their 70s and I am so relieved. I send my mom a “congratulations on being vaccinated!” text and we chat for a bit. I have leftover cornbread with honey and butter for breakfast – soooo good. Work is not particularly exciting today, but someone sends me a last-minute request for something that does not need to be so urgent. I feel annoyed. Still no word from the interviewers on Monday, and I’m beginning to suspect I wasn’t selected to move forward. Too bad. K pays for a Wordpress website for the year (it’s a work-related website, but sadly his work doesn’t reimburse him). It costs $92.48. Noon: The mariachi music is particularly loud today. I stand out on my balcony in the sun for a while and watch the workers. It’s been interesting seeing a house go up next door in real time, especially since I’m at home all the time. The workers are balancing on the top of the third story wall without, as far as I can see, anything like a safety line. It seems unsafe, but I presume they know what they’re doing. We booked a cabin for the upcoming weekend in the Hood Canal region of Washington to do some hiking and birdwatching. I want to be as safe as possible and not go to any grocery stores or risk spreading COVID in any way while I’m there, so I place another grocery order with Whole Foods just for some special treats for the weekend. The cabin has a small kitchen and a grill, so we’re planning to make a fancy steak salad on Saturday. I order chips and hummus, some fancy cheese and meats, Tate’s cookies (I’ve heard a lot of good things about these), a baguette, and the ingredients for the steak salad. I also order a few staples I forgot in our last order, like sweet potatoes, more coffee, and half and half. It comes to $87.41, including tip, but that does include like $30 worth of steak. For some reason, I can’t order a small amount of steak online, so I’m planning to freeze half of it for later. (I include this purchase in our vacation fund budget, rather than under our regular grocery budget). Around 2 pm, K makes a quick trip to our local wine store to buy an Oregon pinot noir and some port to enjoy at the cabin ($59.45). This store has an outdoor walk-up counter where you can tell the owner what you’re looking for, and he brings you some options (the store is way too small to allow customers to enter during Covid). It’s fun to chat with another human being, even briefly. Evening: After work, we spend a little time rebalancing our investing and retirement accounts. We decide to put more money into bonds and a little bit into REIT’s as a hedge against a potential crash or recession in the future. Then I start making dinner – Broken Eggs (Huevas Rotas) from the NY Times cooking site. You basically cook the potatoes in a skillet in water, spices, and olive oil, and then sauté them to crisp them up once the water evaporates. Then you add onion, lots of garlic, and finally some eggs. It is delicious. I eat it with leftover cornbread while watching RuPaul’s Drag Race season 13 with my sister – we watch the first two episodes. It’s full of twists and turns. A note about this – we have an elaborate procedure for watching shows together developed during quarantine whereby we start the show at the same with an earbud in one ear, while FaceTiming. I also have chocolate cake, of course. Later, I get an email that I’ve signed up for HBO on Amazon Prime. I definitely have not. I text my mom, who shares my account, and she tells me she signed up by mistake. I cancel right away and luckily they won’t charge us for it. Meanwhile, K is doing an online Japanese language class over Zoom. He’s been interested in learning ever since we went to Japan last January. I lived in Japan for 3 years so I was able to take us around to a lot of more obscure places and he really enjoyed the trip – it was a blast. K starts a YouTube yoga class (from Do Yoga With Me – my favorite channel) and I join him for part of it before bed around 10 pm. Daily total: $239.34 Day 5 Morning: I get up around 7 am and we go for a run first thing. I prefer running early in the morning because there are fewer people to avoid during COVID. We do a different route today – it’s longer (3 miles) but has fewer hills. It’s a slog, as always, but I feel good when I get back right around 8 am. I jump straight onto my computer to start checking work emails and my husband makes us avocado and egg toast for breakfast - it is absolutely delicious. We talk about how our bathroom smells distinctly mildewy (yay for being a grown-up because I guess this is what we talk about now) and we buy two big buckets of DampRid on Amazon ($26.60). I’ve found this to be a necessity in Seattle. Mid-morning, I take a break from work and start packing for our trip to the cabin. Noon: I have leftover potatoes and cornbread for lunch, and my husband has the leftover chili. We finish getting ready to leave and head out right after lunch, taking a half day. The only problem is that I have attend a meeting at 3:30 pm, so we head out hoping to get there in time. Our cabin is near Quilcene in the Hood Canal region of Washington, about a 2 hour drive or a 2 hour ferry ride + drive. We are initially planning to take the ferry both ways, but realize that we mistimed the ferry departure, so we drive the whole way instead. Luckily, there’s little traffic mid-day, and we arrive at our Airbnb around 3:00 pm. The Airbnb is beautiful! It’s a small cabin handmade by the owner, whose house is next door. It’s very rural, with a beautiful view. It’s tiny, but has a little kitchen and a waterfall-style shower with river rocks on the floor. It’s a great place to get away for a short time. Luckily, it also has good reception and I’m able to sit in on my meeting with no problems. My husband also does a little work, and then at 5 pm we’re free! In our planning, we decided to get takeout on Friday night, since the little kitchen isn’t designed for any serious cooking. We call ahead to a local restaurant to order burgers (one of only 2 restaurants in the whole town). It’s around 5:30 pm and the place is deserted. It’s a microbrewery, but they tell us they haven’t been making beer since COVID-19 hit. None of the workers are wearing masks when I walk in, but they put them on when they see I’m wearing one. I pick up our order - a few bottled beers and burgers and fries ($49.52 including tip). Back at our Airbnb, we watch Big Trouble in Little China and enjoy our very messy, but delicious, burgers (it costs $4.39 to rent). The movie is very campy but fun. I love silly action movies, as you will see with my other viewing choices. We wrap up the night in a very exciting fashion, eating chocolate cake and watching old episodes of the original Star Trek. Daily total: $80.51 Day 6 Morning & noon: When we wake up around 8 am, the weather is looking thankfully clear and even sunny! We were expecting rain, so we’re really glad. We decide to go hiking today, and we head out before even having breakfast, with snacks and lunches packed. Our first destination is a hike called Mt. Zion, but unfortunately, we run into enough snow 2 miles before the trailhead that we decide to turn back. We don’t have any traction for our Subaru and don’t want to risk getting stuck on a very narrow mountain road. Instead, we drive another hour or so to the Lena Lake trailhead, a very popular and less strenuous trail. It’s about 7.5 miles roundtrip with 1200 feet of elevation gain. By this time, it’s around 11:30, but luckily there is still parking. It’s a great hike up, and we run into relatively few people. We always mask up whenever we pass anyone, as does about 50% of the people we meet. The others… not so much. Around a mile from the lake, we start to run into snow. It’s turned into a beautiful sunny day, and I’m loving seeing all this snow! It’s a bit slippery, but not too bad. We make it to the lake mid-day, and it’s super jammed – there’s only a small viewpoint accessible, so everyone is crowded in there. I feel a bit uneasy with all the unmasked people, but we manage to find a spot away from the crowd and sit down to eat our lunch of apples, chips, and energy bars. There are a ton of robber jays there (Canada Jays) which try to eat our chips. It is fun watching them, but I’m annoyed to see some kids feeding them – it’ll just make them that much more aggressive. Bad trail manners. On our way back down, we get stuck behind a group of 5 unmasked adults, who refuse to cede the narrow trail to faster hikers. I’m a slow hiker myself, so, to be clear, I’m not angry at slower walkers being on the trail but have some self-awareness and let people pass! especially if you’re going to go hiking in a big group during a pandemic! We finally get back down and head back to our Airbnb. Evening: Back home, we explore some of the trails our Airbnb host has set up around his extensive property, and then relax on the deck. The sun is breaking through the clouds and it feels wonderful to sit out in nature and feel the sun on my back. We open up a bottle of wine and have a few pre-dinner snacks (more chips and hummus). For this night, we brought ingredients to make a steak salad. Our Airbnb host has kindly set up a charcoal grill for us, so we grilled the steak and toast some bread on the side. We eat dinner while watching the truly terrible Jean Claude Van Damme movie Bloodsport and finish up the very last of my chocolate cake. It’s amazing that anyone ever let Van Damme act… or should I say ‘act.’ I also have a Tate’s chocolate chip cookie or two, accompanied by a little port. My husband and I are truly very old people at heart, so we finish up the night watching a few episodes of Columbo. Daily total: $0 Day 7 Morning: Unfortunately, K had insomnia last night, so he sleeps in pretty late. I drink coffee in bed and enjoy looking at the view out our big windows. Once he’s up, we get packed up and write a thank you note for our host. It was a great stay. One of my big hobbies is birding and K enjoys wildlife photography, so we go out to look for some lifers! (The first time you see a new species of bird). Did I mention we are very old people in (relatively) young bodies? We first go to Dosewallips State Park and see some bald eagles, great blue herons, lots of various ducks, and a flock of Canada Geese, which, strangely, includes a domesticated gray goose. He’s much larger than the Canada Geese and seems to be watching over them. It’s kind of cute. Unfortunately, a lot of the birds are too far from shore to be seen clearly. Our next stop is Point No Point (I love all the sad & disappointed names that early Westerner explorers gave places in the Washington/Oregon coast), a popular birding spot. We see a ton of birds here, and I can understand why it’s so well-known - Red-Breasted Mergansers, Western Grebes, Common Goldeneyes, Pacific Loons, and a few others I can’t identify yet. Most excitingly though, we see a whole pile of otters! They’re lounging around together on a rock just offshore and a ton of people are watching. We watch as they all slip off the rock and go hunting in the shore. It’s my first otter sighting in the wild, and it’s so cool! We also see some seals and possibly a sea lion. It’s a great spot for wildlife. We eat some snacks (hummus, chips, some sliced meat & cheese) before we head out. I really want to come back to this area another time and explore further, but K has decided that we need to get back home in time for the Big Game. We take the 3:00 pm ferry back to Seattle ($16.40) and get home around 3:45 pm. I veg out at home while my husband watches football. He’s a Patriots fan but he still loves Tom Brady (??) so he’s happy to see Florida win. I don’t understand sports team loyalties at all, but whatever, I’m glad he’s happy. We order from a new Indian place called Spice Box and get vindaloo, roganjosh, and vegetables pakora – so tasty ($53.96). Happily, there’s enough left over for lunch the next day, since I have no plans for what we will eat yet! I’m really dreading work the next day, as I know that it will be obnoxious. I want to get out of my job so badly, but it doesn’t look like I’m going on to the next interview stage for the job I interviewed no back on Monday. I’m feeling kind of down about it. I try to stay positive and promise that I’ll apply for at least 2-3 new jobs next week. I bake up some frozen cookie dough I had in the freezer and feel sorry for myself. We end the night by watching another episode of Columbo. Daily total: 70.36 Food + Drink: $395.23 Fun / Entertainment: $26.40 Home + Health: $26.60 Clothes + Beauty: $0 Transport: $16.40 Other: $170.48 Grand Total: $635.11 I think this week was pretty normal for us. Obviously we spent a bit more than usual due to the weekend cabin trip, but nothing outrageous. Our largest consumer spending category is definitely food and drink – we live in a very busy area of Seattle with tons of restaurants and bars so believe it or not, we actually used to spend even more on eating out. We still try to support our local places by getting takeout or delivery during the pandemic and even occasionally getting a few drinks outside. I spent more than usual on groceries due to stocking up for the weekend away.
Playboy going public: Porn, Gambling, and Cannabis
NEW INFO 5 Results from share redemption are posted. Less than .2% redeemed. Very bullish as investors are showing extreme confidence in the future of PLBY. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/playboy-mountain-crest-acquisition-corp-120000721.html NEW INFO 4 Definitive Agreement to purchase 100% of Lovers brand stores announced 2/1. https://www.streetinsider.com/Corporate+News/Playboy+%28MCAC%29+Confirms+Deal+to+Acquire+Lovers/17892359.html NEW INFO 3 I bought more on the dip today. 5081 total. Price rose AH to $12.38 (2.15%) NEW INFO 2 Here is the full webinar. https://icrinc.zoom.us/rec/play/9GWKdmOYumjWfZuufW3QXpe_FW_g--qeNbg6PnTjTMbnNTgLmCbWjeRFpQga1iPc-elpGap8dnDv8Zww.yD7DjUwuPmapeEdP?continueMode=true&tk=lEYc4F_FkKlgsmCIs6w0gtGHT2kbgVGbUju3cIRBSjk.DQIAAAAV8NK49xZWdldRM2xNSFNQcTBmcE00UzM3bXh3AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA&uuid=WN_GKWqbHkeSyuWetJmLFkj4g&_x_zm_rtaid=kR45-uuqRE-L65AxLjpbQw.1611967079119.2c054e3d3f8d8e63339273d9175939ed&_x_zm_rhtaid=866 NEW INFO 1 Live merger webinar with PLBY and MCAC on Friday January 29, 2021 at 12:00 NOON EST link below https://mcacquisition.com/investor-relations/press-release-details/2021/Playboy-Enterprises-Inc.-and-Mountain-Crest-Acquisition-Corp-Participate-in-SPACInsider-ICR-Webinar-on-January-29th-at-12pm-ET/default.aspx Playboy going public: Porn, Gambling, and Cannabis !!!WARNING READING AHEAD!!! TL;DR at the end. It will take some time to sort through all the links and read/watch everything, but you should. In the next couple weeks, Mountain Crest Acquisition Corp is taking Playboy public. The existing ticker MCAC will become PLBY. Special purpose acquisition companies have taken private companies public in recent months with great success. I believe this will be no exception. Notably, Playboy is profitable and has skyrocketing revenue going into a transformational growth phase. Porn - First and foremost, let's talk about porn. I know what you guys are thinking. “Porno mags are dead. Why would I want to invest in something like that? I can get porn for free online.” Guess what? You are absolutely right. And that’s exactly why Playboy doesn’t do that anymore. That’s right, they eliminated their print division. And yet they somehow STILL make money from porn that people (see: boomers) pay for on their website through PlayboyTV, Playboy Plus, and iPlayboy. Here’s the thing: Playboy has international, multi-generational name recognition from porn. They have content available in 180 countries. It will be the only publicly traded adult entertainment (porn) company. But that is not where this company is going. It will help support them along the way. You can see every Playboy magazine through iPlayboy if you’re interested. NSFW links below: https://www.playboy.com/ https://www.playboytv.com/ https://www.playboyplus.com/ https://www.iplayboy.com/ Gambling - Some of you might recognize the Playboy brand from gambling trips to places like Las Vegas, Atlantic City, Cancun, London or Macau. They’ve been in the gambling biz for decades through their casinos, clubs, and licensed gaming products. They see the writing on the wall. COVID is accelerating the transition to digital, application based GAMBLING. That’s right. What we are doing on Robinhood with risky options is gambling, and the only reason regulators might give a shit anymore is because we are making too much money. There may be some restrictions put in place, but gambling from your phone on your couch is not going anywhere. More and more states are allowing things like Draftkings, poker, state ‘lottery” apps, hell - even political betting. Michigan and Virginia just ok’d gambling apps. They won’t be the last. This is all from your couch and any 18 year old with a cracked iphone can access it. Wouldn’t it be cool if Playboy was going to do something like that? They’re already working on it. As per CEO Ben Kohn who we will get to later, “...the company’s casino-style digital gaming products with Scientific Games and Microgaming continue to see significant global growth.” Honestly, I stopped researching Scientific Games' sports betting segment when I saw the word ‘omni-channel’. That told me all I needed to know about it’s success. “Our SG Sports™ platform is an enhanced, omni-channel solution for online, self-service and retail fixed odds sports betting – from soccer to tennis, basketball, football, baseball, hockey, motor sports, racing and more.” https://www.scientificgames.com/ https://www.microgaming.co.uk/ “This latter segment has become increasingly enticing for Playboy, and it said last week that it is considering new tie-ups that could include gaming operators like PointsBet and 888Holdings.” https://calvinayre.com/2020/10/05/business/playboys-gaming-ops-could-get-a-boost-from-spac-purchase/ As per their SEC filing: “Significant consumer engagement and spend with Playboy-branded gaming properties around the world, including with leading partners such as Microgaming, Scientific Games, and Caesar’s Entertainment, steers our investment in digital gaming, sports betting and other digital offerings to further support our commercial strategy to expand consumer spend with minimal marginal cost, and gain consumer data to inform go-to-market plans across categories.” https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921005986/tm2034213-12_defm14a.htm#tMDAA1 They are expanding into more areas of gaming/gambling, working with international players in the digital gaming/gambling arena, and a Playboy sportsbook is on the horizon. https://www.playboy.com/read/the-pleasure-of-playing-with-yourself-mobile-gaming-in-the-covid-era Cannabis - If you’ve ever read through a Playboy magazine, you know they’ve had a positive relationship with cannabis for many years. As of September 2020, Playboy has made a major shift into the cannabis space. Too good to be true you say? Check their website. Playboy currently sells a range of CBD products. This is a good sign. Federal hemp products, which these most likely are, can be mailed across state lines and most importantly for a company like Playboy, can operate through a traditional banking institution. CBD products are usually the first step towards the cannabis space for large companies. Playboy didn’t make these products themselves meaning they are working with a processor in the cannabis industry. Another good sign for future expansion. What else do they have for sale? Pipes, grinders, ashtrays, rolling trays, joint holders. Hmm. Ok. So it looks like they want to sell some shit. They probably don’t have an active interest in cannabis right? Think again: https://www.forbes.com/sites/javierhasse/2020/09/24/playboy-gets-serious-about-cannabis-law-reform-advocacy-with-new-partnership-grants/?sh=62f044a65cea “Taking yet another step into the cannabis space, Playboy will be announcing later on Thursday (September, 2020) that it is launching a cannabis law reform and advocacy campaign in partnership with National Organization for the Reform of Marijuana Laws (NORML), Last Prisoner Project, Marijuana Policy Project, the Veterans Cannabis Project, and the Eaze Momentum Program.” “According to information procured exclusively, the three-pronged campaign will focus on calling for federal legalization. The program also includes the creation of a mentorship plan, through which the Playboy Foundation will support entrepreneurs from groups that are underrepresented in the industry.” Remember that CEO Kohn from earlier? He wrote this recently: https://medium.com/naked-open-letters-from-playboy/congress-must-pass-the-more-act-c867c35239ae Seems like he really wants weed to be legal? Hmm wonder why? The writing's on the wall my friends. Playboy wants into the cannabis industry, they are making steps towards this end, and we have favorable conditions for legislative progress. Don’t think branding your own cannabis line is profitable or worthwhile? Tell me why these 41 celebrity millionaires and billionaires are dummies. I’ll wait. https://www.celebstoner.com/news/celebstoner-news/2019/07/12/top-celebrity-cannabis-brands/ Confirmation: I hear you. “This all seems pretty speculative. It would be wildly profitable if they pull this shift off. But how do we really know?” Watch this whole video: https://finance.yahoo.com/video/playboy-ceo-telling-story-female-154907068.html Man - this interview just gets my juices flowing. And highlights one of my favorite reasons for this play. They have so many different business avenues from which a catalyst could appear. I think paying attention, holding shares, and options on these staggered announcements over the next year is the way I am going to go about it. "There's definitely been a shift to direct-to-consumer," he (Kohn) said. "About 50 percent of our revenue today is direct-to-consumer, and that will continue to grow going forward.” “Kohn touted Playboy's portfolio of both digital and consumer products, with casino-style gaming, in particular, serving a crucial role under the company's new business model. Playboy also has its sights on the emerging cannabis market, from CBD products to marijuana products geared toward sexual health and pleasure.” "If THC does become legal in the United States, we have developed certain strains to enhance your sex life that we will launch," Kohn said. https://cheddar.com/media/playboy-goes-public-health-gaming-lifestyle-focus Oh? The CEO actually said it? Ok then. “We have developed certain strains…” They’re already working with growers on strains and genetics? Ok. There are several legal cannabis markets for those products right now, international and stateside. I expect Playboy licensed hemp and THC pre-rolls by EOY. Something like this: https://www.etsy.com/listing/842996758/10-playboy-pre-roll-tubes-limited?ga_order=most_relevant&ga_search_type=all&ga_view_type=gallery&ga_search_query=pre+roll+playboy&ref=sr_gallery-1-2&organic_search_click=1 Maintaining cannabis operations can be costly and a regulatory headache. Playboy’s licensing strategy allows them to pick successful, established partners and sidestep traditional barriers to entry. You know what I like about these new markets? They’re expanding. Worldwide. And they are going to be a bigger deal than they already are with or without Playboy. Who thinks weed and gambling are going away? Too many people like that stuff. These are easy markets. And Playboy is early enough to carve out their spot in each. Fuck it, read this too: https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimosman/2020/10/20/playboy-could-be-the-king-of-spacs-here-are-three-picks/?sh=2e13dcaa3e05 Numbers: You want numbers? I got numbers. As per the company’s most recent SEC filing: “For the year ended December 31, 2019, and the nine months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s historical consolidated revenue was $78.1 million and $101.3 million, respectively, historical consolidated net income (loss) was $(23.6) million and $(4.8) million, respectively, and Adjusted EBITDA was $13.1 million and $21.8 million, respectively.” “In the nine months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s Licensing segment contributed $44.2 million in revenue and $31.1 million in net income.” “In the ninth months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s Direct-to-Consumer segment contributed $40.2 million in revenue and net income of $0.1 million.” “In the nine months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s Digital Subscriptions and Content segment contributed $15.4 million in revenue and net income of $7.4 million.” They are profitable across all three of their current business segments. “Playboy’s return to the public markets presents a transformed, streamlined and high-growth business. The Company has over $400 million in cash flows contracted through 2029, sexual wellness products available for sale online and in over 10,000 major retail stores in the US, and a growing variety of clothing and branded lifestyle and digital gaming products.” https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921005986/tm2034213-12_defm14a.htm#tSHCF Growth: Playboy has massive growth in China and massive growth potential in India. “In China, where Playboy has spent more than 25 years building its business, our licensees have an enormous footprint of nearly 2,500 brick and mortar stores and 1,000 ecommerce stores selling high quality, Playboy-branded men’s casual wear, shoes/footwear, sleepwear, swimwear, formal suits, leather & non-leather goods, sweaters, active wear, and accessories. We have achieved significant growth in China licensing revenues over the past several years in partnership with strong licensees and high-quality manufacturers, and we are planning for increased growth through updates to our men’s fashion lines and expansion into adjacent categories in men’s skincare and grooming, sexual wellness, and women’s fashion, a category where recent launches have been well received.” The men’s market in China is about the same size as the entire population of the United States and European Union combined. Playboy is a leading brand in this market. They are expanding into the women’s market too. Did you know CBD toothpaste is huge in China? China loves CBD products and has hemp fields that dwarf those in the US. If Playboy expands their CBD line China it will be huge. Did you know the gambling money in Macau absolutely puts Las Vegas to shame? Technically, it's illegal on the mainland, but in reality, there is a lot of gambling going on in China. https://www.forbes.com/sites/javierhasse/2020/10/19/magic-johnson-and-uncle-buds-cbd-brand-enter-china-via-tmall-partnership/?sh=271776ca411e “In India, Playboy today has a presence through select apparel licensees and hospitality establishments. Consumer research suggests significant growth opportunities in the territory with Playboy’s brand and categories of focus.” “Playboy Enterprises has announced the expansion of its global consumer products business into India as part of a partnership with Jay Jay Iconic Brands, a leading fashion and lifestyle Company in India.” “The Indian market today is dominated by consumers under the age of 35, who represent more than 65 percent of the country’s total population and are driving India’s significant online shopping growth. The Playboy brand’s core values of playfulness and exploration resonate strongly with the expressed desires of today’s younger millennial consumers. For us, Playboy was the perfect fit.” “The Playboy international portfolio has been flourishing for more than 25 years in several South Asian markets such as China and Japan. In particular, it has strategically targeted the millennial and gen-Z audiences across categories such as apparel, footwear, home textiles, eyewear and watches.” https://www.licenseglobal.com/industry-news/playboy-expands-global-footprint-india It looks like they gave COVID the heisman in terms of net damage sustained: “Although Playboy has not suffered any material adverse consequences to date from the COVID-19 pandemic, the business has been impacted both negatively and positively. The remote working and stay-at-home orders resulted in the closure of the London Playboy Club and retail stores of Playboy’s licensees, decreasing licensing revenues in the second quarter, as well as causing supply chain disruption and less efficient product development thereby slowing the launch of new products. However, these negative impacts were offset by an increase in Yandy’s direct-to-consumer sales, which have benefited in part from overall increases in online retail sales so far during the pandemic.” Looks like the positives are long term (Yandy acquisition) and the negatives are temporary (stay-at-home orders). https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921006093/tm213766-1_defa14a.htm This speaks to their ability to maintain a financially solvent company throughout the transition phase to the aforementioned areas. They’d say some fancy shit like “expanded business model to encompass four key revenue streams: Sexual Wellness, Style & Apparel, Gaming & Lifestyle, and Beauty & Grooming.” I hear “we’re just biding our time with these trinkets until those dollar dollar bill y’all markets are fully up and running.” But the truth is these existing revenue streams are profitable, scalable, and rapidly expanding Playboy’s e-commerce segment around the world. "Even in the face of COVID this year, we've been able to grow EBITDA over 100 percent and revenue over 68 percent, and I expect that to accelerate going into 2021," he said. “Playboy is accelerating its growth in company-owned and branded consumer products in attractive and expanding markets in which it has a proven history of brand affinity and consumer spend.” Also in the SEC filing, the Time Frame: “As we detailed in the definitive proxy statement, the SPAC stockholder meeting to vote on the transaction has been set for February 9th, and, subject to stockholder approval and satisfaction of the other closing conditions, we expect to complete the merger and begin trading on NASDAQ under ticker PLBY shortly thereafter,” concluded Kohn. The Players: Suhail “The Whale” Rizvi (HMFIC), Ben “The Bridge” Kohn (CEO), “lil” Suying Liu & “Big” Dong Liu (Young-gun China gang). I encourage you to look these folks up. The real OG here is Suhail Rizvi. He’s from India originally and Chairman of the Board for the new PLBY company. He was an early investor in Twitter, Square, Facebook and others. His firm, Rizvi Traverse, currently invests in Instacart, Pinterest, Snapchat, Playboy, and SpaceX. Maybe you’ve heard of them. “Rizvi, who owns a sprawling three-home compound in Greenwich, Connecticut, and a 1.65-acre estate in Palm Beach, Florida, near Bill Gates and Michael Bloomberg, moved to Iowa Falls when he was five. His father was a professor of psychology at Iowa. Along with his older brother Ashraf, a hedge fund manager, Rizvi graduated from Wharton business school.” “Suhail Rizvi: the 47-year-old 'unsocial' social media baron: When Twitter goes public in the coming weeks (2013), one of the biggest winners will be a 47-year-old financier who guards his secrecy so zealously that he employs a person to take down his Wikipedia entry and scrub his photos from the internet. In IPO, Twitter seeks to be 'anti-FB'” “Prince Alwaleed bin Talal of Saudi Arabia looks like a big Twitter winner. So do the moneyed clients of Jamie Dimon. But as you’ve-got-to-be-joking wealth washed over Twitter on Thursday — a company that didn’t exist eight years ago was worth $31.7 billion after its first day on the stock market — the non-boldface name of the moment is Suhail R. Rizvi. Mr. Rizvi, 47, runs a private investment company that is the largest outside investor in Twitter with a 15.6 percent stake worth $3.8 billion at the end of trading on Thursday (November, 2013). Using a web of connections in the tech industry and in finance, as well as a hearty dose of good timing, he brought many prominent names in at the ground floor, including the Saudi prince and some of JPMorgan’s wealthiest clients.” https://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/08/technology/at-twitter-working-behind-the-scenes-toward-a-billion-dollar-payday.html Y’all like that Arab money? How about a dude that can call up Saudi Princes and convince them to spend? Funniest shit about I read about him: “Rizvi was able to buy only $100 million in Facebook shortly before its IPO, thus limiting his returns, according to people with knowledge of the matter.” Poor guy :( He should be fine with the 16 million PLBY shares he's going to have though :) Shuhail also has experience in the entertainment industry. He’s invested in companies like SESAC, ICM, and Summit Entertainment. He’s got Hollywood connections to blast this stuff post-merger. And he’s at least partially responsible for that whole Twilight thing. I’m team Edward btw. I really like what Suhail has done so far. He’s lurked in the shadows while Kohn is consolidating the company, trimming the fat, making Playboy profitable, and aiming the ship at modern growing markets. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-twitter-ipo-rizvi-insight/insight-little-known-hollywood-investor-poised-to-score-with-twitter-ipo-idUSBRE9920VW20131003 Ben “The Bridge” Kohn is an interesting guy. He’s the connection between Rizvi Traverse and Playboy. He’s both CEO of Playboy and was previously Managing Partner at Rizvi Traverse. Ben seems to be the voice of the Playboy-Rizvi partnership, which makes sense with Suhail’s privacy concerns. Kohn said this: “Today is a very big day for all of us at Playboy and for all our partners globally. I stepped into the CEO role at Playboy in 2017 because I saw the biggest opportunity of my career. Playboy is a brand and platform that could not be replicated today. It has massive global reach, with more than $3B of global consumer spend and products sold in over 180 countries. Our mission – to create a culture where all people can pursue pleasure – is rooted in our 67-year history and creates a clear focus for our business and role we play in people’s lives, providing them with the products, services and experiences that create a lifestyle of pleasure. We are taking this step into the public markets because the committed capital will enable us to accelerate our product development and go-to-market strategies and to more rapidly build our direct to consumer capabilities,” said Ben Kohn, CEO of Playboy. “Playboy today is a highly profitable commerce business with a total addressable market projected in the trillions of dollars,” Mr. Kohn continued, “We are actively selling into the Sexual Wellness consumer category, projected to be approximately $400 billion in size by 2024, where our recently launched intimacy products have rolled out to more than 10,000 stores at major US retailers in the United States. Combined with our owned & operated ecommerce Sexual Wellness initiatives, the category will contribute more than 40% of our revenue this year. In our Apparel and Beauty categories, our collaborations with high-end fashion brands including Missguided and PacSun are projected to achieve over $50M in retail sales across the US and UK this year, our leading men’s apparel lines in China expanded to nearly 2500 brick and mortar stores and almost 1000 digital stores, and our new men’s and women’s fragrance line recently launched in Europe. In Gaming, our casino-style digital gaming products with Scientific Games and Microgaming continue to see significant global growth. Our product strategy is informed by years of consumer data as we actively expand from a purely licensing model into owning and operating key high-growth product lines focused on driving profitability and consumer lifetime value. We are thrilled about the future of Playboy. Our foundation has been set to drive further growth and margin, and with the committed capital from this transaction and our more than $180M in NOLs, we will take advantage of the opportunity in front of us, building to our goal of $100M of adjusted EBITDA in 2025.” https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20201001005404/en/Playboy-to-Become-a-Public-Company Also, according to their Form 4s, “Big” Dong Liu and “lil” Suying Liu just loaded up with shares last week. These guys are brothers and seem like the Chinese market connection. They are only 32 & 35 years old. I don’t even know what that means, but it's provocative. https://www.secform4.com/insider-trading/1832415.htm https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mountain-crest-acquisition-corp-ii-002600994.html Y’all like that China money? “Mr. Liu has been the Chief Financial Officer of Dongguan Zhishang Photoelectric Technology Co., Ltd., a regional designer, manufacturer and distributor of LED lights serving commercial customers throughout Southern China since November 2016, at which time he led a syndicate of investments into the firm. Mr. Liu has since overseen the financials of Dongguan Zhishang as well as provided strategic guidance to its board of directors, advising on operational efficiency and cash flow performance. From March 2010 to October 2016, Mr. Liu was the Head of Finance at Feidiao Electrical Group Co., Ltd., a leading Chinese manufacturer of electrical outlets headquartered in Shanghai and with businesses in the greater China region as well as Europe.” Dr. Suying Liu, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Mountain Crest Acquisition Corp., commented, “Playboy is a unique and compelling investment opportunity, with one of the world’s largest and most recognized brands, its proven consumer affinity and spend, and its enormous future growth potential in its four product segments and new and existing geographic regions. I am thrilled to be partnering with Ben and his exceptional team to bring his vision to fruition.” https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20201001005404/en/Playboy-to-Become-a-Public-Company These guys are good. They have a proven track record of success across multiple industries. Connections and money run deep with all of these guys. I don’t think they’re in the game to lose. I was going to write a couple more paragraphs about why you should have a look at this but really the best thing you can do is read this SEC filing from a couple days ago. It explains the situation in far better detail. Specifically, look to page 137 and read through their strategy. Also, look at their ownership percentages and compensation plans including the stock options and their prices. The financials look great, revenue is up 90% Q3, and it looks like a bright future. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921005986/tm2034213-12_defm14a.htm#tSHCF I’m hesitant to attach this because his position seems short term, but I’m going to with a warning because he does hit on some good points (two are below his link) and he’s got a sizable position in this thing (500k+ on margin, I think). I don’t know this guy but he did look at the same publicly available info and make roughly the same prediction, albeit without the in depth gambling or cannabis mention. You can also search reddit for ‘MCAC’ and very few relevant results come up and none of them even come close to really looking at this thing. https://docs.google.com/document/d/1gOvAd6lebs452hFlWWbxVjQ3VMsjGBkbJeXRwDwIJfM/edit?usp=sharing “Also, before you people start making claims that Playboy is a “boomer” company, STOP RIGHT THERE. This is not a good argument. Simply put. The only thing that matters is Playboy’s name recognition, not their archaic business model which doesn’t even exist anymore as they have completely repurposed their business.” “Imagine not buying $MCAC at a 400M valuation lol. Streetwear department is worth 1B alone imo.” Considering the ridiculous Chinese growth as a lifestyle brand, he’s not wrong. Current Cultural Significance and Meme Value: A year ago I wouldn’t have included this section but the events from the last several weeks (even going back to tsla) have proven that a company’s ability to meme and/or gain social network popularity can have an effect. Tik-tok, Snapchat, Twitch, Reddit, Youtube, Facebook, Twitter. They all have Playboy stuff on them. Kids in middle and highschool know what Playboy is but will likely never see or touch one of the magazines in person. They’ll have a Playboy hoodie though. Crazy huh? A lot like GME, PLBY would hugely benefit from meme-value stock interest to drive engagement towards their new business model while also building strategic coffers. This interest may not directly and/or significantly move the stock price but can generate significant interest from larger players who will. Bull Case: The year is 2025. Playboy is now the world leader pleasure brand. They began by offering Playboy licensed gaming products, including gambling products, direct to consumers through existing names. By 2022, demand has skyrocketed and Playboy has designed and released their own gambling platforms. In 2025, they are also a leading cannabis brand in the United States and Canada with proprietary strains and products geared towards sexual wellness. Cannabis was legalized in the US in 2023 when President Biden got glaucoma but had success with cannabis treatment. He personally pushes for cannabis legalization as he steps out of office after his first term. Playboy has also grown their brand in China and India to multi-billion per year markets. The stock goes up from 11ish to 100ish and everyone makes big gains buying somewhere along the way. Bear Case: The United States does a complete 180 on marijuana and gambling. President Biden overdoses on marijuana in the Lincoln bedroom when his FDs go tits up and he loses a ton of money in his sports book app after the Fighting Blue Hens narrowly lose the National Championship to Bama. Playboy is unable to expand their cannabis and gambling brands but still does well with their worldwide lifestyle brand. They gain and lose some interest in China and India but the markets are too large to ignore them completely. The stock goes up from 11ish to 13ish and everyone makes 15-20% gains. TL;DR: Successful technology/e-commerce investment firm took over Playboy to turn it into a porn, online gambling/gaming, sports book, cannabis company, worldwide lifestyle brand that promotes sexual wellness, vetern access, women-ownership, minority-ownership, and “pleasure for all”. Does a successful online team reinventing an antiquated physical copy giant sound familiar? No options yet, shares only for now. $11.38 per share at time of writing. My guess? $20 by the end of February. $50 by EOY. This is not financial advice. I am not qualified to give financial advice. I’m just sayin’ I would personally use a Playboy sports book app while smoking a Playboy strain specific joint and it would be cool if they did that. Do your own research. You’d probably want to start here: WARNING - POTENTIALLY NSFW - SEXY MODELS AHEAD - no actual nudity though https://s26.q4cdn.com/895475556/files/doc_presentations/Playboy-Craig-Hallum-Conference-Investor-Presentation-11_17_20-compressed.pdf Or here: https://www.mcacquisition.com/investor-relations/default.aspx Jimmy Chill: “Get into any SPAC at $10 or $11 and you are going to make money.” STL;DR: Buy MCAC. MCAC > PLBY couple weeks. Rocketship. Moon. Position: 5000 shares. I will buy short, medium, and long-dated calls once available.
some FA I'd like for the Jags and a 7 round mock, let me know what u think
Free agents: Allen Robinson - not sure how likely this is but I'd love to see him in the black and teal again and he would provide Lawrence a safety outlet with how well he catches contested passes, not to mention a Veteran presence in a pretty young receiver room would be nice Trent Williams - sign him to a 1/2 year deal, he could come in as an elite tackle to protect Lawrence, take an OT in the draft who could either plug in on the right side or play behind our tackles and slide in for Williams once he is gone. It is highly unlikely we get Trent over the 9ers but this would be a dream scenario for Lawrence and our medical staff. Hunter Henry - This signing is similar to Eifert in that the Jaguars are gambling on Henry to be the player he was before multiple injuries. However, he is much younger than Eifert so he still has room to grow into his former self again, and even if his ceiling is limited to the player he is now, he is still a good Tight End to have on our roster. I'd much prefer we sign a TE rather than drafting one because I don't love any of the guys in this class at our spots in the draft. Marcus Williams - our safeties aren't it. plain and simple. Williams has been a great safety for the Saints since 2017 (i think it was 2017) and would instantly boost our secondary which needs any talent it can get. Jonnu Smith - Jonnu is a dangerous weapon after the catch, he didn't receive a large amount of targets on the Titans but the Jaguars will obviously look to change that. If Jonnu can handle a large volume of targets he will be a big home run hitter for our offense. *i'm not saying we will get all these guys this offseason, these are just guys I think we should look at pretty much I want some veteran talent on offense that can lead our young guys and provide instant impact for Lawrence, for the defense we need to solidify our secondary by any means necessary before we do anything else. 7 round mock draft: 1.Trevor Lawrence QB, Clemson No explanation needed, don't screw this pick up. 25. Jalen Mayfield OT, Michigan Mayfield is a high ceiling prospect, he has ideal size and length to be an elite starting T or G. He only had two full years in college and then only played 2 games this year, starting a total of 15 games for Michigan. His college career was tough as he played against many now NFL edge rushers, most notably being Chase Young and Gross-Matos, but he held his ground against all of them. Being as young as he is I think he will only get better developing into an elite franchise tackle. 33. Gregory Rousseau EDGE, Miami Rousseau went from playing mainly WR in highschool to being an immensely productive edge rusher for Miami. Despite his amazing production his frame is not built as an edge rusher yet and he has a lot of his technical flaws. Normally Rousseau does not last until the second in my drafts but all the players that had gone before him made sense considering Rousseau's boom or bust potential. If the Jaguars are able to snag Rousseau they could allow him to sit behind Allen and Chaisson and bulk up and get coached up to his potential. If Rousseau reaches his ceiling the Jaguars will have a lethal pass rushing rotation with Rousseau Allen and Chaisson all being good young edges. This pick would make it the third time in recent history the Jaguars had a great defensive player fall to them (Myles, Allen and now Rousseau) 46. Jevon Holland S, Oregon Holland is a player who could be drafted to play as your free safety or as a nickel corner. He is a great athlete with great hips and feet making his coverage look fluid and easy. He could come in and start at safety for the Jaguars while also frequently rotating to the nickel corner in certain packages giving our defense a lot of versatility. Holland will be a guy who roams the field sideline to sideline and is always in play for the ball no matter what play is called. The Jaguars need to massively improve their safeties as Josh Jones and Jarrod Wilson are not the answers. 65. Tyson Campbell CB, Georgia C.J. Henderson was up and down this season and ended it on the IR, he will for sure be back in the starting rotation come 2021 and will hopefully look more consistent. Sidney Jones looked solid for us but was on and off the field with injuries near the end of the season. Our other corner backs can not start for us next year, no matter what. Tyson Campbell comes in from Georgia with the ideal size, length and athleticism to be a starting corner for us on the boundary. However, Campbell doesn't show a good awareness of the game when on the field. With the addition of Holland the pick before the Jaguars can afford to pick Campbell and allow him to develop behind C.J and Sidney filling in for their injuries. 105. Amari Rodgers WR, Clemson With Trevor Lawrence at the helm of our offense you can never really have enough talent for him to throw to. Rodgers comes in as Lawrence go-to guy at Clemson, he is built more like a running back than a wide out and plays mainly in the slot. He doesn't run the cleanest routes and he struggles to catch passes outside of his body but has very sure hands and can create big plays in space. Rodgers would provide Lawrence some immediate chemistry with our offense and can operate as a Curtis Samuel/Tavon Austin type gadget player in our offense. 129. Janarius Robinson EDGE, Florida State Janarius Robinson's tape and production is underwhelming but his prototypical size and build along with his athleticism make him an exciting prospect. A lot of his lack of production can be attributed to FSU's terrible development and schemes, if hes taught how to use his size and strength properly he can become a solid starting edge. Robinson also has the height to be able to bulk up and move inside on the defensive line at 6'5. 144. Javian Hawkins RB, Louisville Javian Hawkins is purely a complimentary type back. At 5'9 195 lbs he offers a Sproles/Edwards-Helaire type skill set in that he is extremely fast and agile, has incredible get off, and is a giant threat in space. He lacks the size and natural ball carrier vision to run inside the tackles, but can provide home run plays outside the tackles or in the passing game. Hawkins would provide a nice contrast to Robinson for our offense. 169. Jack Anderson IOL, Texas Tech Anderson is a guard who has great size and strength, he is not a great athlete but is still able to execute pulls consistently. He relies on his strength a lot neglecting leverage and hand placement at times. Drafting Anderson does nothing for our offense immediately, he is a developmental guard who can sit behind and eventually replace norwell and cann. Once he becomes a starter he will most likely pan out to be an average starting guard. 225. Cade Johnson WR, South Dakota State There is no 2020 tape on Johnson but he is a guy who will likely run in the 4.4/4.3 range. He is your average deep threat receiver, nothing else super stands out with Johnson. The Jaguars here take a solid special teamer and an athletic receiver that could produce on gadget plays and potentially develop into a solid, cheap deep threat wr 4/5. 246. Tamorrion Terry WR, Florida State Tamorrion Terry, at 6'4 200 lbs, is one of the best route runners in this draft. It is rare to see someone off Tamorrion's size running so fluidly. He needs to learn to capitalize off his size and have a more alpha mentality when catching the ball, and needs to be coached out of drops issues - concentration and technique wise. Tamorrion is a receiver that if coached well could become a premier receiver in the NFL with his unique size and agility.
If you want to just get to the goodness, you can view the entire sheet here So I did one of these about a month ago and found some really great conversation. I didn't get to do another before the regular season ended, but my predictions should actually get a bit better due to knowing the full draft order and how some FOs are changing around. Let's go team by team AFCW KC - We start with the defending champion, who seek to replace their offensive and special teams coaches with internal hires: QB coach Mike Kafka and Asst ST Coordinator Andy Hill. Nothing surprising here. They enter the offseason just a bit over the cap, but restructures to Eric Fisher and Tyrann Mathieu should help fix that. They also bring in veteran AJ Green to start across from Tyreek Hill on a cheap one year deal. The draft helps the team maintain their strong offense. Two of their first three picks are on the OL, one on Irish tackle Liam Eichenberg and the other on Crimson pivot Landon Dickerson. Marshall adds depth to a depleted WR room. Spagnuolo has run a great unit despite a lack of high capital talent. He'll continue to do so with depth pieces in LB Browning, CB Griffin, and DE Sanders. LAC - The Chargers should hire the man that can turn around an undisciplined team. That man is Chiefs ST coordinator Dave Toub, who brings in Chad O'Shea to run his offense and Lovie Smith to run his defense. The rest of the transactions are centered around building a team to help Herbert suceed. Hunter Henry is retained and David Andrews is brought in to shore up the OL. VT rookie Christian Darrisaw and BC guard Alex Lindstrom add to this quickly improving unit. I don't think I need to justify most of the other picks. Florida kicker Evan McPherson is brought in to replace a kicking unit that was only 53% from 40+. LV - The Raiders' first act is to bring in Packers DB coach Jerry Gray, who has overseen the elite seasons of Jaire Alexander (20), Xavier Rhodes (17), and Alterraun Verner (13). Gruden and Mayock have been vocal about wanting to improve the secondary play, and Gray should be able to do just that. The Raiders are also able to free up space by cutting Tyrell Williams and Jeff Heath, as well as by restructuring Trent Brown. They add Sammy Watkins and Tevin Coleman to their depth chart. In the draft, they add my favorite safety in Oregon's Jevon Holland, who is a nickel/S hybrid with great physicality. They also add DT Jay Tufele, DE Carlos Basham, and DE Xavier Thomas to an underwhelming front 4. DEN - Elway's decision to step back as the GM is complimented by the hiring of former Falcons' GM Thomas Dimitroff, who has shown the ability to build a SB caliber roster and isn't afraid to be aggressive to get the right pieces for his team. Dimitroff starts his tenure by signing S Justin Simmons to a multi-year deal, as well as adding veterans Richard Sherman and Gus Edwards in free agency. He sits still with his first draft pick, adding the draft's top CB in Patrick Surtain before bringing the guns out and trading up to 30 to draft Florida QB and Heisman candidate Kyle Trask. While Trask doesn't bring the elite upside of someone like Fields or Lawrence, he proved he was more than capable of reading defenses and winning games. Dimitroff also drafts OT Brady Christensen, LB Dimitri Moore, and DE Tyreke Smith before the draft is over. AFCN PIT - Despite a stellar season, the Steelers are able to enter free agency with their full coaching staff in tact. They start by extending DPOY TJ Watt through 2025, as well as re-signing Al V to a cheap deal and cutting Steven Nelson and Eric Ebron. The Steelers are quietly full of holes, but their draft helps them fill them. Star RB Najee Harris falls to them at 28, and mammoth OT Daniel Faalele and CB TJ Carter are right behind him. QB Desmond Ridder gets picked up in the 4th. Ridder is a high upside athlete with a very inconsistent arm. He's a cheap gamble at a QB of the future. They also add punter Max Duffy from Kentucky. CLE - With plenty of cap and all of their picks, Berry and Stefanski are able to spend their first full offseason building off their 2020 success. They re-sign DE Vernon and LB Butler while extending QB Mayfield and RB Chubb. They also trade away David Njoku to the Jets for a 4th, and they add S Keanu Neal and DT Suh in free agency. The draft falls their way. They grab the uber physical slot corner Shaun Wade in the 1st before coming around for Pitt DT Jaylen Twynam. I know this FO doesn't care about LB, but McGrone at 87 is too good a value to pass up. BAL - EDC is busy this offseason. With plenty of cap space to play with, he is able to start off by re-signing Ngakoue and extending Lamar Jackson. He then adds two key offensive pieces in WR Allen Robinson and C Ted Karras. The Ravens have a solid draft. They pick up Texas LB Joseph Ossai, who is a mean power rusher to replace Judon. They also add OG Vera-Tucker and S Bubba Bolden. Justyn Ross in the 5th is a risk, but his red zone ability means a lot to this team. CIN - As much as I would've liked to replace DC Lou Anarumo, the Bengals have stated that he is staying on the team. No matter. The Bengals spend money on their key players, franchise tagging CB Williams Jackson and extending S Jessie Bates. Bobby Hart is cut and replaced with former JAX LT Cam Robinson, giving this team flexibility in the draft. They start the draft by trading down with CAR, picking up an extra 1st and 2nd along the way. With Sewell off the board, the Bengals draft star TE Kyle Pitts, giving Burrow a huge target in the middle of the field. They then add back to back linemen with Myers and Randunz in the 2nd before adding Aidan Hutchinson and Pete Werner on defense. AFCE BUF - Brandon Beane's first task of the offseason is replacing OC Brian Daboll, who has left to coach the Jaguars. He does so by hiring Panthers OL Coach Pat Meyer, who has over 20 years of coaching experience. Beane retains LB Matt Milano on the franchise tag before signing QB Josh Allen to a huge extension. The Bills trade out of the first round, picking up the 41st and 72nd picks to do so. They use those picks on Bulldog CB Eric Stokes and Miami TE Brevin Jordan, with Kentucky EDGE Jamar Watson stuck in between them. They also add two OL in the draft, as well as two DTs, a LB, and another CB. This defense is replenished with youth while Allen gets the middle of his offense strengthened. MIA - The Phins start by using their huge cap space to add key playmakers. They sign two former Packers in Corey Linsley and Aaron Jones, as well as a big time pass rusher in Matt Judon. The draft goes really well for Miami. With 5 picks in the top 100, the Phins are in a great spot. They add generational OT Penei Sewell with the Texans' pick before letting WR Jaylen Waddle and LB Jeremiah Owusu-Koromoah fall into their laps. NE - The Pats are a tough offseason to predict. A lot of their action hinges on QB. Well I thought I'd be a bit poetic and have Billy B trade for his former signal-caller, giving a pair of 4ths to SF for QB Jimmy Garoppolo. Jimmy G fits the traditional QB mold much better than Cam, and they're going to give him some tools to work with. The Pats add WR Curtis Samuel and TE Gerald Everett in free agency. They also retain JC Jackson, James White, and Jason McCourty while bringing in KJ Wright and Jadevon Clowney on cheap deals. In the draft, the Pats are patient. They let WR Devonta Smith fall to them at 14 and LB Zaven Collins get to them at 45. They spend their draft filling out the holes in the roster, adding a TE, two DTs, and another WR. They also take a shot on Miami QB D'Eriq King, who is an inconsistent passer with a nice upside. NYJ - I had a bit of fun with the Jets. I had JD bringing in Titans OC Arthur Smith to coach the team. Joining him are PIT secondary coach Teryl Austin, who has experience as a DC, and BAL assistant TJ Weist. With one of the highest cap spaces, the Jets are active this offseason. They re-sign S Marcus Maye and CB Brian Poole. They add some key playmakers in WR Will Fuller, LB Bud Dupree, and RB Kenyan Drake. They also add OG Joe Thuney and trade for TE David Njoku. The Jets are done with Darnold, shipping him off to Tampa for a 3rd round pick. In the draft, the Jets are smart. They don't overthink it. They draft Ohio St QB Justin Fields, who has shown time and time again that he has the tools to be a franchise QB. They also add Sooner center Creed Humphrey and Miami DE Quincy Roche. Javonte Williams comes at 66 to compliment Drake, and Surratt comes at 91 to be a red zone target. Perhaps my one regret with this class is failing to address CB sooner, but Deommodore Lenoir at 90 is a pick I'm a real fan of. AFCS TEN - The Titans unfortunately lose OC Arthur Smith to the Jets, prompting Vrabel to promote QB coach Pat O'Hara to the position. The Titans aren't flush with cash, but they are able to retain TE Jonnu Smith while adding WR Marvin Jones and DE Melvin Ingram on cheap win now deals. In the draft, the Titans address their weakest position early, grabbing Georgia's Azeez Ojulari at 25. They then add CB Asante Samuel in the 2nd before grabbing a potential Isaiah Wilson replacement in Teven Jenkins in the 3rd. Elijah Moore at 128 is interesting. He's a poor man's Rondale Moore in this class. Tennessee also adds a K in Miss St's Brandon Ruiz, who has only ever missed one PAT and was 10/12 in 2020. IND - Colts fans are going to hate me for this, but Carson Wentz is going to be the starter in 2021. Let's come back to that. First, we have to hire a DC. They promote DB coach Alan Williams. They also re-sign CB Xavier Rhodes, who had a surprising resurgence under Williams, as well as Justin Houston. Darius Leonard gets a big extension and is now the league's highest paid LB ever (well starting in 2022). Agholor adds WR depth and Dalton gives some insurance at QB. Ok so Wentz. Just hear me out. The Colts have plenty of cap space, and the Eagles are paying them to take on the deal. Wentz thrived under Reich in the past, and a lot of his issues seem fixable with a proper offseason. Now in the draft, the Colts try to give Wentz the tools to succeed. They add Texas OT Sam Cosmi in the 1st, giving a long term answer should AC call it quits. They also add Florida WR Toney in the 2nd, a man who has taken huge strides in 2020. HOU - We need to start by saying that JJ Watt is gone. I have the Texans trading him and a 5th to SF for Dee Ford and a 2nd. While this is a sad move, it's a necessary one. Watt frees over $17M in cap space for a team with no cap space. That, combined with the firing of both Johnson RBs, allows the team to add CB K'Waun Williams and RB James Conner for relatively cheap deals. Other than the Watt deal, Houston's big move this offseason is bringing in Seahawks executive Scott Fitterer to run the front office while former Chiefs OC Eric Bieniemy runs the team. Bieniemy adds Raheem Morris as his DC and Phil Galiano as his ST coach. The Watt trade proves hugely critical. Houston now has a pick inside the top 60, which they use on Oklahoma St WR Tylan Wallace. They also add CB Paulson Adebo, who is a raw but super physical player from Stanford. Joe Tryon and Trey Sermon add depth to the DL and RB rooms respectively. This team is still working its way back to the top, but this draft is a good start. JAX - The Jaguars have a great offseason. They hire Vikings executive George Paton, who has turned down previous jobs for the right opportunity, to be their GM. He hires BUF OC Brian Daboll to run the offense. Daboll brings his former assistant Ken Dorsey to help him on offense while Dan Quinn calls the defense. Paton adds several key free agents capable of starting immediately. Rashard Higgins becomes the WR3 on this team while Julie'n Davenport replaces Cam Robinson. Mack Alexander and Troy Hill complete the CB room, and Anthony Harris gets some big money to start in the secondary. While Paton isn't afraid to spend his money, the real crux of the offseason occurs in the draft. They take Trevor Lawrence, obviously. But they also add DT Marvin Wilson to replace Taven Bryan, as well as Alex Leatherwood, who can challenge Davenport for the LT spot and kick into LG if he fails. Pat F becomes to long term answer at TE and Andre Cisco is that big hitting playmaker to fill in the gap next to Harris. NFCW SEA - With a good amount of money to spend, the Seahawks prioritize their in house men. Shaquill Griffin and Chris Carson are retained, and Carlos Dunlap and Tyler Lockett are restructured. Jamal Adams gets an enormous deal, surpassing Budda Baker's from just a few months ago. TY Hilton is also brought in. The draft goes well for Seattle. They are able to add a productive pass rusher in Victor Dimukeje without trading up. They also nab Florida CB Marco Wilson and add to their trenches with Josh Ball and Mustafa Johnson. The Hawks are keeping things more or less the same and trying to build on a successful 2020. LAR - Despite all the buzz, I have a hard time seeing DC Brandon Staley getting a HC job after one year at the helm. Instead, the Rams FO remains in tact. They lose Andrew Whitworth to retirement, but they are able to retain breakout CB Darious Williams. With such little cap, it's crucial that the Rams are able to fill out the starting lineup with rookies. That happens with DE Hamilcar Rashed, LT Jalen Mayfield, and LB Monty Rice filling up their cards. ARI - Despite a promising start to the year, the Cards have fallen flat. They'll need to look at their 2nd half collapse to assess where this roster stands. With a decent amount of money, they prioritize some in house players, re-signing Patrick Peterson, Zane Gonzalez, and Andy Lee. They also bring in DE Trey Hendrickson, who has been on fire for New Orleans, as well as former UDFA RB Phillip Lindsay. The Cards take Gamecock CB Jaycee Horn with their first pick before adding to their OL with Trey Smith in the 2nd. Kenny Gainwell (yes, he can gain well) looks like a potential star in the 3rd. SF - This is the fun one. So out the gate, Shanahan has to replace Robert Saleh at DC. We're sticking to LB coach DeMeco Ryans, who has earned high praise from Shanny. Now the fun stuff. The 49ers aren't flush with cash, but they are comfortable. That gives them some room to play around. SF re-signs Trent Williams and Jason Verrett before extending LB Fred Warner. They also add C Austin Blythe, who has been solid for the division rival Rams. Jimmy G can't seem to stay healthy, so he gets shipped off back to the Pats for a pair of 4ths. To replace him, the 9ers make a big move and give up their 1st and 5th round picks for QB Matthew Stafford. But wait, they aren't done. They also package DE Dee Ford and their 2nd round pick for veteran DE JJ Watt and a Day 3 pick. Shanahan believes that his roster is ready to win. Without a 1st, 2nd, or 3rd round pick, the 49ers have to be wise with their draft picks. They add Michigan's Ambry Thomas, as well as guard Zion Johnson, two guys that can push to start as rookies. Sterns, Smith-Marsette, Castro-Fields, and Herbert should all rotate into the lineup as well. NFCN GB - There isn't too much action in the offseason for the Packers. They cut Preston Smith to free up some money, and they extend Davante Adams to a backloaded deal. They also retain Allen Lazard and Robert Tonyan. It's a quietly solid draft. They are able to add a dynamic playmaker in Rondale Moore before addressing their defense with DT Jordan Davis and LB Chazz Surratt. Chuba Hubbard in the 5th gives some depth to a depleted RB room. CHI - So Bears fans aren't going to like this, but I gave Trubisky a franchise tag. Trubisky went 4-1 to close the season and got them into the playoffs. To make room for this deal, the Bears restructure Akiem Hicks and cut both Bobbie Massie and Jimmy Graham. They also bring Corey Davis in to be the ARob replacement. They add local OT Rashawn Slater in the draft, a Daniel Jeremiah favorite who has some positional versatility. Chris Olave in the 2nd helps make up for the ARob departure, and Nasirildeen in the 3rd provides a hard hitting safety to play alongside Eddie Jackson. DET - For the Lions, I decided to hire Saints exec Jeff Ireland, who has had a long history with successful teams. He hires SF DC Robert Saleh, who brings with him SF's passing game coordinator Mike LaFleur to run the offense. While there have been reports that Stafford isn't going anywhere, I have them dealing him to SF for the 15th overall pick. They do tag Kenny Golladay to a one year deal to prove his worth to a new regime. They also sign Kwon Alexander to start at LB and Jacoby Brissett to be their new bridge QB. Frank Ragnow gets a huge extension too. In the draft, the Lions start off aggressive. They ship off two 1sts, a 2nd, and a 3rd to get Zach Wilson. With the SF pick, they add Miami's Greg Rousseau, a versatile linemen with plenty of upside. They then add Nico Collins and Tre Walker to the WR room. MIN - After losing OC Gary Kubiak to re-retirement, the Vikes promote QB coach Klint Kubiak to the position. They also hire former HOU ST man Tracy Smith to replace Marwan Maalouf. The team moves some money around, restructuring Riley Reiff and extending Harrison Smith. In the draft, they are unable to trade back but do grab the best guard in the class with Ohio State's Wyatt Davis. They also add S Paris Ford and DT Alim McNeil in the 3rd to potentially start as rookies. Brock Purdy in the 4th comes in to be the backup and possible heir to the QB room. NFCE WAS - I feel like I'm going to dissapoint WAS fans a bit. I had them signing Cam Newton to compete with Alex Smith. The good news is that the rest of their offseason is productive. They hire KC exec Brandt Tills to be their new GM, and they are able to retain Scherff, Darby, and Dustin Hopkins. Jared Cook and Emmanuel Sanders come in to start for them as well. Rashod Bateman falls into their lap at 19, and Jackson Carman tumbles to 51. Jamie Newman in the 3rd is a bit of a risky pick, but I really like his upside. He can develop on the bench for a year. NYG - The Giants are quiet in free agency. They do retain Leonard Williams and Logan Ryan. Restructuring Zeitler's deal allows them to bring in Ryan Kerrigan. Their draft goes fairly well though. Micah Parsons falls to them at 8, and they grab Amon-Ra St. Brown (a potential top 30 pick) in the 2nd. Joe Judge will count on a year of improvement from his young OL and QB to compliment a strong and disciplined defense. DAL - The one coaching change I have for Dallas is the replacement of Mike Nolan with Gus Bradley. Other than that their offseason is relatively quiet. They sign Dak to a long term deal (as they should have done last year). And Dalvin Tomlinson comes in to start at DT. They use the draft to fix their defense, adding Farley, LeCounte, and Rumph as potential starters. Walker Little in the 3rd gives them some much needed OL depth. PHI - The Eagles are active this offseason, with a massive debt in cap space and no DC. They hire PIT DL coach Karl Dunbar to coach the defense, and they cut Goodwin, Jeffery, DJax, and Malik Jackson. The big news is that they are sending Wentz to Indy in a Osweiler-CLE esque deal, pairing a 3rd with him. They spend the draft retooling, adding Ja'Marr Chase in the 1st before going to the defense with Tyson Campbell and Dylan Moses on Day 2. Cade Mays and Cordell Volson add depth to a depleted line, and Divine Deablo will push for serious playing time. NFCS NO - Similar to the Eagles, the Saints are going to have to blow it up after this season. Brees retires, and they cut: Kwon Alexander, Emmanuel Sanders, Nick Easton, Malcolm Brown, Janoris Jenkins, Josh Hill. They also extend Lattimore and Ramczyk to backloaded deals before restructuring Cam Jordan. In the draft, they take Mac Jones in the 1st and hope to surround him with the same level of talent he had at Bama. They add Derion Kendrick in the 2nd and Dazz Newsome in the 4th. TB - The Bucs are in a great spot to push for a 2021 Championship while maintaining a bright future. They have a good amount of cap and are able to retain David, Godwin, Barrett, and Gronk. They also trade a 3rd for Sam Darnold. In the draft, they work on maintaining a suffocating defense with DT Daviyon Nixon, DE Jayson Oweh, and DE Shaka Toney. Kylin Hill, Damon Hazelton, and Tre' McKitty add some potential dynamicism to this offense. CAR - The Panthers start by bringing SF VP Adam Peters to run the show. He signs Okung and Moton to big money deals before turning his attention to the draft. Peters sees that Bridgewater limits this team's ceiling, so he trades up for Trey Lance, giving up a pair of 1sts and a 2nd to grab his QB of the future. Lance is raw, no doubt, but he'll be in a great spot learning behind Teddy. The Panthers then add Bolton in the 3rd to replace Whitehead. Amari Rodgers in the 5th is a fun pick. He plays exactly like Curtis Samuel. ATL - The Falcons overhaul their entire front office, bringing in Indy's Ed Dodds to run the show with Matt Eberflus next to him. Mike McDaniel gets promoted to OC from his run game coordinator position in SF, and Franky Ross follows Eberflus to coach the special teams. Without any money to spend, the Falcons are relatively quiet. They cut Fowler, Ricardo Allen, and Allen Bailey to free up space. They add Charvarius Ward and Jamaal Williams in free agency. The focus primarily on defense in the draft, adding Kwity Paye in the 1st after trading back with Detroit. They also draft S Trevon Moehrig, DT Christian Barmore, and DE Daelin Hayes. Travis Etienne comes in to play next to Jamaal Williams, fulfilling all fantasy players' dreams. Overall I felt like there are definitely some moves in here that are going to cause tension. But I think that's also realistic. This was a lot of fun, but I don't expect to be doing another one of these for a while. I need to turn my head back to scouting (I've only truly watched about a third of the players in this draft). Let me know what your thoughts are. What did I do well? What do you hate?
The Top 10 Prospects of the 2021 NBA Draft according to ESPN's Jonathan Givony & Mike Schmitz
The 2021 NBA Draft is considered to be a very deep draft with -Elite talent at the top -Potential all-star talent that goes deep into the lottery -Versatile athletes that fit into how the league wants to play today, and going forward. Many analysts & gamblers predicted that either the Pistons, Knicks, Cavs or Thunder are expected to finish with the one of the worst records in the league & could potentially win the #1 Pick in the Draft Lottery.
Cade Cunningham, 6'8, 220 lb PG from Oklahoma State University
Strengths - Has excellent size for a point guard. Listed at 6-foot-8, 220 pounds with a wingspan that exceeds 7 feet. Fluid athlete who plays at different speeds, passes and handles with both hands and plays a selfless style. Can bully smaller guards in the post. Difficult for bigger defenders to handle due to his shot-creation skill. - Outstanding physical tools defensively that allow him to cover guards, wings and bigs. Has excellent timing, feel and intensity. Likes to crash the glass aggressively and ignite the break on his own. Competitive and attentive off the ball. - Much improved shooter who confidently knocks down pull-up jumpers from midrange and 3. Excellent free throw shooter. Shows soft touch around the basket. Improvement areas - Lacks a degree of explosiveness beating defenders from a standstill. Relies more on size and strength to get by opponents in the half court. - Struggles to score over length in traffic at times. Can he be efficient creating offense as a No. 1 option? - Plays for an Oklahoma State team that lacks much perimeter shooting and creation. Opponents are aggressive with double-teams intended to get the ball out of his hands. May not be able to show the full extent of his arsenal operating out of pick-and-roll. Projected role: Big playmaker
Evan Mobley: 7 foot, 215 lb Center from USC
Strengths - Ideal physical profile for a modern big man. Outstanding coordination for his size. Quick off his feet. Explosive leaper in space. Finishes above the rim with ease. Lob threat. Tools make him a factor on the offensive glass. - Elite rim protector with great timing and a 7-4 wingspan. Rotates well from the weak side. Can step out and switch onto guards. Sound pick-and-roll defender who should be a major asset on the defensive end of the floor. - Modern skill set. Great hands. Has the touch and mechanics to knock down NBA 3s with regularity in time. Comfortable in midrange spots. Smooth handle and excellent passer with either hand. Should be able to play next to another center in certain lineups. Improvement areas - Not a physical defensive rebounder. High center of gravity. Gets wedged out of position by stronger bigs. - Looks as if he's coasting at times. Incredible talent who leaves you wanting more for stretches. - Can he ever be a No. 1 or No. 2 scoring option on a great team? Doesn't have many ways to go get himself a bucket in the half court at this stage. Projected role: Franchise center
Jalen Green: 6'5, 172 lb Combo Guard from NBA G-League Ignite Select Team
Strengths - Shifty, explosive guard. Has a rare extra gear changing speeds in the open court. Doesn't have glaring holes in his game that can't be fixed with added experience and polish. - Strong finisher with long strides, tremendous body control and nice creativity finishing around the rim with touch. Excellent scoring instincts. Has shown toughness and control in several high-profile settings. - Much improved perimeter shooter who shows glimpses of impressive shot-making prowess pulling up off the dribble with deep range. Improvement areas - Isn't the biggest shooting guard around at 6-5 with a lean frame. Doesn't possess great length to compensate. - Plays an iso-heavy style that isn't always efficient. Relies heavily on his pull-up game, which can be streaky at times. Shows flashes as a creator but will need to prove he also makes others better, particularly operating with his left hand. - Defensive intensity fluctuated at the high school level. Gambles for steals. Doesn't always get over screens. Projected role: Creating combo guard
Jalen Suggs: 6'4, 205 lb PG from Gonzaga
Strengths - Nice size for a lead guard at 6-4. Strong, compact frame. Powerful athlete. Finishes above the rim in space, especially off of two feet. Great body control. Embraces contact. Downhill driver who can change speeds. Great in transition. Active cutter who can play on or off the ball. - Mature decision-maker on the court with a great feel for the game. Unselfish hit-aheads in transition. Poised pick-and-roll passer who uses both sides of the floor. Rewards cutters and makes the extra pass to shooters. Takes care of the ball at a high level. - Tough defender who wants to defend the other team's best player. Great feet on the ball, dialed in off the ball. Excellent anticipation in the passing lanes. Will mix it up for rebounds. Improvement areas - Streaky shooter. Sound mechanics and good balance but a career 27% from 3 on 190 attempts, according to our database. Nothing to suggest he won't become a reliable shooter, but the results just aren't there yet. - Not the most nuanced finisher. Relies more on power and two-foot explosiveness than finesse. Would benefit from adding a more reliable floater and additional deception around the rim. - Average wingspan relative to his height. Projected role: Franchise point guard
Jonathan Kuminga: 6'8, 220 lb Congolese Forward from NBA G-League Ignite Select Team
Strengths - Has an ideal physical profile for a combo forward at 6-8, 225 pounds with a 7-foot wingspan. Possesses an outstanding frame and is explosive in the open court with an impressive combination of strength, quickness and fluidity. - Shows intriguing shot-making prowess, making 42 3-pointers in 19 Nike EYBL games. Has smooth mechanics and looks capable of making jumpers in a variety of ways, including off the dribble and even running off screens at times. - Has excellent defensive potential when engaged. Strong enough to defend big men but has quick-enough feet to stay in front of guards. Improvement areas - Feel, decision-making and overall polish are works in progress. Not an efficient offensive player. Settles for the first shot he can find. Drives with his head down. Not the easiest teammate to play with. Needs to show he can impact winning when his pull-up jumper isn't falling. - Has tools and versatility but is a below-average defender at this stage. Competitiveness and intensity fluctuate. Relies too heavily on his length and athleticism. Technique off the ball leaves a lot to be desired. Has a tendency to stand around and gamble in passing lanes or bite wildly on fakes. - Has some questions to answer about his approach to the game. Body language leaves something to be desired, and he hasn't gotten much high-level coaching. Didn't show a great deal of progress with his feel for the game in his final year of high school. Projected role: Two-way forward
Jalen Johnson: 6'9, 220 lb Forward from Duke
Strengths - Impressive combination of strength and explosiveness at 6-9, 220 pounds. Strong lower body. Plays with physicality. - Extremely versatile defender. Can shift anywhere from 1 to 5 in a pinch. Good instincts off the ball. Rotates for blocks and charges. Aggressive rebounder on both ends. - At his best pushing in the open court. Fluid ball handler for his size and crafty passer. Excellent straight-line driver who can change speeds. Improvement areas - Rigid shooting stroke. Long release with mixed results. Doesn't have many ways to score in the half court outside of energy plays. - A bit predictable as a shot creator. Likes to catch, jab right, drive left. A little too turnover prone for a playmaker. - Not overly long relative to his height. Does he have enough offensive game to ever be more than a third or fourth option on a playoff team? Projected role: Two-way combo forward
Brandon Boston Jr.: 6'7, 185 lb G/F from Kentucky
Strengths - Good dimensions for the wing at 6-7 with a near 7-foot wingspan. Fluid athlete who is at a very early stage of development physically. - Creative scorer who plays at different speeds smoothly. Has excellent body control, polished footwork, long strides and a natural pace operating out of pick-and-roll. Shows flashes of shot-making potential pulling up off step-backs and passing off a live dribble. - Physically weak but shows some toughness crashing the glass and getting in passing lanes. Improvement areas - Weighs only 185 pounds. Has been slow to add bulk to his frame. - Has struggled to adapt to the physicality of the college game early, especially finishing in traffic and defending. Gambles excessively. Intensity comes and goes. - Still working on fine-tuning his ball-handling to create high-percentage looks around the rim. Lives off tough shots in the midrange. Deep ball hasn't fallen early in his college career. Has a tendency to hunt difficult attempts off isolation moves. Can be a reluctant passer at times. Projected role: Shot-maker and secondary creator
Ziaire Williams: 6'8, 185 G/F from Stanford
Strengths - Tall, fluid wing at 6-8 with a 6-10.5 wingspan. Big reach. Light on his feet. Can finish above the rim in space. Changes speeds and directions comfortably. - Shows major shotmaking potential both off the catch and the bounce. Has the footwork to rise into pull-ups smoothly and can create space with step backs. Comfortable ball handler with great balance who can play pick-and-roll. Handle and shotmaking potential give him quite a bit of upside as a creator. Willing passer with strong court vision. - Strong off-ball defender who has good instincts in the passing lanes. Will rotate for blocks or charges. Improvement areas - Rail thin at 185 pounds with narrow shoulders. How much will he fill out long term? Lack of strength limits him defensively and as a finisher. Toughness comes and goes in part because of his lack of physicality. Gets pushed around at times and caught on screens defensively. - Still finding the right balance between when to be aggressive and when to facilitate. Settles for contested jump shots far too often. Doesn't get to the free throw line. Needs to do a better job getting downhill. Will go long stretches without having much of an offensive impact and then take an out-of-rhythm jumper. - Relatively streaky shooter given his reliance on shotmaking. Confidence in his shooting comes and goes. Projected role: Wing shot creator
Keon Johnson: 6'5, 186 lb Guard out of Tennessee
Strengths - One of the best athletes in college basketball. Powerful first step in the open court. Explosive accelerating from a standstill and getting off his feet for dunks and blocks. Frame is at an early stage of development but should fill out in time. - Aggressive, competitive prospect who maximizes his tools on both ends of the floor. Versatile defender who can stay in front of guards and wings. At his best sliding his feet and containing the point of attack. Generates plenty of turnovers with his instincts, quickness and activity level. - Shows flashes of playmaking, shot-making and feel for the game that indicate he has significant room for growth. Improvement areas - At an early stage of development offensively. Lacks experience and polish in the half court. Ball-Handling, decision-making are a work in progress. - Frame is on the leaner side; he weighs 186 pounds. Will need to add bulk to be able to play through contact on both ends of the floor. - Pull-up jumper is slow and lacks accuracy under duress. Struggled from the free throw line earlier in his career. Projected role: Two-way wing
Scottie Barnes: 6'9, 227 lb Point Forward from Florida State
Strengths - Excellent size and length for a modern forward at 6-8 with a 7-2 wingspan and a strong frame. Has the tools to slide up and play some small-ball center in a pinch. - High motor defender who can defend 1 through 5 at the collegiate level. Regularly picks up point guards in the back court. Good technique on the ball. Crowds opposing guards and takes them out of their offense. Can switch every screen onto bigs. Active off-ball defender. - Mismatch facilitator with a great feel for the game. Plays point guard for FSU. Unselfish moving the ball ahead in transition. Comfortable ball handler. Fills in the gaps on offense. Keeps plays alive on the offensive glass. Improvement areas - Unnatural shooting stroke with unproven results. Lack of floor spacing makes him a tough fit on the offensive end of the floor. Needs shooters around him at all times to make him most effective. - Limited all-around scorer in the half court. Doesn't have great touch or much to go to in his scoring arsenal. - Mobile for his size but lacking a degree of quickness and burst off the dribble. Plays below the rim in the half court. Not much of a leaper. Elite collegiate defender, but will he have the foot speed to lock up elite NBA wings? Projected role: Two-way point forward
[OC] The Overly-Long and Probably-Wrong list of the Top Draft Prospects
As a basketball fan, it's always fun to speculate on the NBA Draft prospects. That said, I'd stress the speculate part of that statement. As an outsider with no real access to these players, it's hard to be arrogant and steadfast in our opinions. We're working with about 10% as much information as actual NBA teams. If you feel confident in your analysis based on some highlight tapes of James Wiseman dunking on South Carolina State or LaMelo Ball jacking up shots in the Australian League, god bless you. And if you want to read my amateur analysis, god bless you too. But before you do, remember to check your sodium levels and take these picks with a grain of salt.
BEST PROSPECTS in the 2019-20 NBA DRAFT
(1) SG Anthony Edwards, Georgia Based on pure stats, Anthony Edwards would be one of the least impressive # 1 picks of all time. We're talking about a player who just averaged 19-5-3 on bad shooting splits (40-29-77) on a bad Georgia team. In fact, the Bulldogs didn't even crack .500 (finishing 16-16). All things considered, this isn't the resume of a top overall pick. It's like a kid with a 2.9 GPA applying to Harvard Law. Still, the "eye test" helps Edwards' case in the same way it helped proud Harvard alum Elle Woods. Edwards has a powerful frame (strong and long with a 6'9" wingspan) and a scorer's mentality. He's going to be a handful for NBA wings to contend with, especially when he's going downhill. And while he hasn't shown to be a knockdown shooter, his form looks better than the results suggest. I'd project that he can become an average (35-36%) three-point shooter in time. It may be unfair to label Edwards with the "best case scenario" comparison -- Dwyane Wade, for example -- but it may be just as unfair to liken him to "worst case scenario" comps like Dion Waiters as well. One of the reasons that Waiters is such an inefficient scorer in the NBA is that he's allergic to the free-throw line; he averages 3.1 FTA per 36 minutes. Edwards didn't live at the FT line, but he did get there 5.3 times per game. With more encouragement from an analytical front office or coaching staff, Edwards has the potential to get to the line 7-8 times a game and raise his ceiling in terms of efficiency. The key for Edwards' career is going to be his work ethic and basketball character. As a prospect, he reminds me of Donovan Mitchell; in fact, he's ahead of where Mitchell was at the same age. That said, Mitchell is a natural leader who made a concerted effort to improve his body and his overall game. If Edwards can do the same, he has true All-Star potential. If he walks into the building thinking he's already a superstar, then he may never become one. best fits Anthony Edwards has some bust potential, but he also has true star potential. Given that, it'd be great to see him go to a team that's willing to feature him. Chances are he won't last this long, but he'd be a great fit for Charlotte (#3). The Hornets desperately need a signature star, and Edwards has the chance to be a 20 PPG scorer within a year or two. worst fits If Edwards falls in the draft, he may end up clashing with the talent on the teams in the 4-5 range. Chicago (#4) already has a scoring guard in Zach LaVine. Meanwhile, Cleveland (#5) has already doubled up on scoring guards with Collin Sexton and Darius Garland. Adding a third would be a potential headache, both offensively and defensively. (2) C James Wiseman, Memphis A true center? Gross! What is this, 1970? Traditional big men tend to get treated that way these days. In some ways, they've become the "running backs" of the NBA. They once ruled the draft, but now they have to scrape and claw to climb into the top 5. Still, let's no go overboard here. Even if centers aren't as valuable as they used to be, there's still some value here. Some of the best centers in the game (Nikola Jokic, Rudy Gobert, Joel Embiid, etc) have helped make their teams staples in the playoffs. Wiseman can potentially impact a team in the same way, especially on the defensive end. He can get beat on switches now and then, but he's about as agile as you can expect out of a kid who's 7'1" with a 7'6" wingspan. Offensively, he has an improving face-up game in addition to being a devastating lob threat. Another reason that I'm comfortable with Wiseman in the top 3 is because he appears to be a smart kid with the will to improve his game. He intends to keep stretching out his range towards three point territory. Even if he can be a passable three-point shooter (in the 33% range), that should help make him a consistent 18-12 player and a fringe All-Star. And if not, then he'll still be a viable starting center. best fits We mentioned Charlotte (#3) as a great fit for Anthony Edwards, and I'd say the same for Wiseman here. His game complements the more dynamic P.J. Washington well; between the two of them, they'd have the 4-5 spot locked up for years. While Wiseman's best chance to be a star may come in Charlotte, we don't know if he truly has that type of aggressive upside. The more likely scenario is him being a pretty good starting center with an emphasis on defense. In that case, he makes some sense in Golden State (#2) and Atlanta (#6). worst fits Apparently James Wiseman doesn't want to go to Minnesota (#1), which makes sense given the presence of Karl-Anthony Towns. If he slips, Chicago (#4) may also be an odd fit. Wiseman is a better prospect than Wendell Carter Jr., but they're not terribly dissimilar. The new Bulls administration didn't select Carter, but it still feels too early to give up on a recent # 7 pick. (3) PF/C Onyeka Okongwu, USC (HIGHER than most expert rankings) Another big man? I may be showing my age here. Still, I'm going to stick to my guns and suggest Onyeka Okongwu is a top 3 prospect in the class for some of the same reasons we ranked James Wiseman so highly. In fact, Okongwu is arguably an even better defensive prospect than Wiseman. While he doesn't have the same size (6'9" with a 7'1" wingspan), he's more switchable. He projects as a prowling, shot-blocking panther, not dissimilar to Bam Adebayo on Miami. Offensively, he flashes some solid skill here and there, although it's unlikely he'd get to Adebayo's level as a playmaker. Another aspect that should help Okongwu is his selflessness. In high school, he played for Chino Hills alongside stars Lonzo and LaMelo Ball. While there, he blended in and did the dirty work for the LaVar Traveling Circus. It's likely that Okongwu will play a similar role in the NBA, complementing a star perimeter player. While Okongwu may not have All-Star upside, I don't see much downside here. I'd be surprised if he's not a long-time starter at the center position (with the potential to play some PF if his shooting range improves.) best fits The most natural fits for Onyeka Okongwu mirror the best fits for James Wiseman. There’s a chance he may slip further than Wiseman too. Washington (#9) should be salivating if that’s the case. worst fits As a low-usage player, there aren't a lot of terrible fits for Okongwu on the board. However, Detroit (#7) already has Blake Griffin on a long-term deal and may re-sign Christian Wood as well. Given that, there wouldn't be much room for Okongwu barring a Griffin trade. (4) PG LaMelo Ball, U.S./Australia. (LOWER than most expect rankings) Every draft pick is an inherent gamble, but there's a difference between gambling in blackjack and gambling in Roulette. To me, LaMelo Ball is more of the latter. No doubt, there's a chance that you may get lucky and "win big" with LaMelo Ball. He has great height for the position at 6'6"/6'7", and he makes some exceptional passes that illustrate a rare court vision. ESPN's Draft Express team ranks him as the # 1 prospect overall, and I take that seriously. Those guys were way ahead of the curve on calling Luka Doncic a transcendent talent at a time when most others were still skeptical. At the same time, I'd say there is a sizable downside here as well. In fact, I'd estimate that there's a greater than 50/50 chance that Ball is a "bust" based on his current draft status. LaMelo Ball put up good raw numbers this past season in the NBL -- 17.0 points, 7.6 rebounds, 6.8 assists -- but he was in a situation specifically designed for him to put up good numbers. The efficiency tells a different story, as his shooting splits (38-25-72) look worrisome. Yes, height helps on defense, but it doesn't matter much if you're not locked in on that end. And yes, highlight-reel passes and super-deep threes are fun to watch, but they're not a path to consistency on offense. As Ball makes the jump to the NBA, he may smack hard into a wall and crash into the water like was on Wipeout. There's a chance he'll be among the worst players (from an advanced stats perspective) as a rookie. So what? We expect most rookies to struggle, right? That's true, but I'd be nervous about how LaMelo Ball and his camp would respond to those initial struggles. Again, I've never met the kid and have no real basis for this, but media interviews make him seem a little immature. That's totally understandable for a 19 year old, but it's not ideal for a 19 year old who's about to get handed the keys to an NBA franchise. If he struggles out of the gates, will he start to lose confidence? Will LaVar Ball start to make waves? Will the media gleefully tear him to shreds? No clue. And if I'm picking in the top 3, I'd prefer to have more confidence than question marks. best fits If we treat LaMelo Ball as a developmental project, then I'd prefer he land with a team like Chicago (#4). New coach Billy Donovan is a former PG himself, and spent decades working with young kids at the college level. If they slow play Ball's development, we may see the best of him down the road. Detroit (#7) also makes sense. Coach Dwane Casey has a pretty good reputation in player development himself, and he has a solid bridge PG in Derrick Rose to help buy Ball some time. worst fits Cleveland (#5) is an obviously wonky fit based on the current roster. I'd also assert that Charlotte (#3) is a poor fit as well. While the team desperately needs a signature star, they don't have the type of supporting cast that would be conducive to him right now. And if he struggles as a rookie, then coach James Borrego and the whole front office may be cleaned out. If that happens, a new administration would be inheriting a franchise player that they didn't pick in the first place. (5) SF/PF Deni Avdija, Israel The NBA tends to be reactionary when it comes to the draft, which can be particularly impactful for international prospects. Their stock tends to swing up and down more violently than a ride at Action Park. There was a ton of skepticism about Euros when Dirk Nowitzki came along. When he hit, the NBA got so excited they drafted Darko Milicic at # 2. Eventually that excitement wore off as the busts started to pile up again. But when Latvian Kristaps Porzingis looked like the real deal, it helped reverse that narrative and helped Dragan Bender go # 4 the following year. In terms of that up-and-down timing, Deni Avdija stands to benefit. He's coming into the NBA on the heels of an incredible sophomore campaign from Luka Doncic. No one thinks that Avdija can be a superstar like Doncic, but teams aren't as wary of international wings (specifically white wings) these days. Avdija should go somewhere in the top 10 if not the top 5. In my mind, that's justified. He's 6'9", which should allow him to play either the SF or PF positions. He hasn't shown to be an excellent shooter yet, but he should eventually be solid there. He's better suited as a playmaker and passer, and he can also use his size and skill to convert on slashes around the rim. I've seen some comparisons to Lamar Odom before, although that may be optimistic. More likely, he'll be a 4th or 5th starter. His experience as a pro should help toward that end, as he's used to working hard and fitting in on a team of vets. best fits If you project Deni Avdija to just "fit in" and be a solid starter, then he'd make sense on a team like Golden State (#2). He could effectively play the role of Harrison Barnes or old Andre Iguodala for them. If the intention is to make him more of a featured player, then the Knicks (#8) would be interesting. In that market, he has real star potential. worst fits I don't love the fit for Avdija in Charlotte (#3), where he may duplicate some of P.J. Washington's talents. Atlanta (#6) and Phoenix (#10) have also invested in young SF-PFs recently, so Avdija may find himself scraping for time there. (6) SG/SF Devin Vassell, Florida State (HIGHER than most expert rankings) Every single NBA team needs 3+D wings. They thirst for them like a dying man in the desert. And then, when a legitimate 3+D wing comes along, they often ignore them in favor of splashier players at other positions. Part of the issue is that low-usage 3+D wings aren't going to put up monster stats. That's certainly true of Devin Vassell, who averaged a modest 12.7 points this past year. Still, you have to go deeper than the pure numbers alone and consider the context. Florida State had a stacked and balanced team. In fact, Vassell's 12.7 PPG was the highest on the roster (and came in only 28.8 minutes.) There's more in the tank here than we've seen so far. He can hit the three (42% and 42% from deep in his two years), and he shows a good feel for the game (2:1 assist/turnover ratio.) Vassell shows even more potential on the defensive end. He's currently listed at 6'7" with a 6'10" wingspan, but he looks even longer than that to my eye. He's tenacious and disruptive (1.4 steals, 1.0 blocks) without being out of control. Presumably, he should be a good defender at either the SG or SF spot. In a sense, Vassell's the prototype for a 3+D wing. To be fair, I don't anticipate him being a great shooter at the next level. His FT% was iffy, and he's apparently been tweaking his shot during the draft process. Still, if he can be a viable shooting threat in the way that Josh Richardson is (an inconsistent shooter who averages around 36%), then he should be a solid starter for an NBA team. That may not sound like something worthy of a top 5 pick, but the high "floor" helps him in this case. He also appears to have a strong character and work ethic, making him feel like an even safer bet. best fits Devin Vassell's skill set would fit on virtually any NBA roster -- but his perceived lack of upside may keep him from going as high as my personal ranking. If he does, then Cleveland (#5) would be a nice fit given their lack of big wings and their lack of defense. Defensive-challenged Washington (#9) would also make sense; Vassell tends to be listed as a SG but he should have enough size to play the SF for them. worst fits You can never have too many 3+D wings, but it may be a duplication to put Devin Vassell on the same team with Mikal Bridges in Phoenix (#10). (7) PG Tyrese Haliburton, Iowa State One of the reasons I'd have to be specific about a fit with a player like LaMelo Ball is that he needs the ball in his hands to maximize his potential. That's true for most lead guards. Given that, it's a nice change of pace to see a prospect like Tyrese Haliburton come along. He's listed as a PG and he can perform those duties. This past season, he averaged 15.2 points and 6.5 assists per game. But he ALSO can operate as an off-the-ball player. As a freshman, he did exactly that, effectively working as a wing player and a glue guy on offense. His three-point shot looks wonky, but he converted 43% as a freshman and 42% as a sophomore. If that translates, he can be an effective spacer as well. Haliburton's versatility also extends to the defensive end. He's 6'5" with an incredible 7'0" wingspan, allowing him to guard either PG or SGs. Like Devin Vassell, he also puts those tools to good use. Either one is an incredible athlete, but they're disruptive and locked in on that end. I'd expect Haliburton to be one of the better guard defenders in the NBA. All in all, you may ask: why isn't this guy ranked HIGHER? The skill set would justify that. At the end of the day I don't see elite upside here (maybe George Hill?) because he may have some trouble getting his shot off in a halfcourt offense. Still, he's one of the safer prospects overall and a kid that you'd feel good betting on. best fits The New York Knicks (#8) may bring in a big-name guard like Chris Paul and Russell Westbrook, but if they stick with the rebuild then Tyrese Haliburton makes loads of sense. He can share playmaking duties with R.J. Barrett, and he can help Tom Thibodeau establish a defensive culture. He'd also make sense for Detroit (#7) and even Atlanta (#6). While the Hawks have Trae Young locked in at PG, Haliburton can play enough SG to justify 30+ overall minutes. worst fits Obviously any team that doesn't have room for a PG OR SG would be a problem here. Cleveland (#5) and Washington (#9) are the clearest examples of that. While Haliburton could theoretically guard some SFs, it's not the best use of his talent. (8) PG Killian Hayes, France If NBA centers are like NFL running backs, then point guards / lead playmakers may be like quarterbacks. There's positive and negatives to that comparison. Obviously, a good lead guard can immediately boost your team. At the same time, you don't really need more than one. And if you're not "the guy," then your impact is going to be limited. Given that, there's a high bar to being a starting PG in the NBA. You have to be really, really friggin' good. According to many experts, Killian Hayes is exactly that. Physically he's what you want in the position, with a 6'5" frame. He averaged 16.8 points and 7.8 assists per 36 playing in Germany this year for a team that had a few former pros like Zoran Dragic. The Ringer has him # 1 overall. Personally, I haven't completely bought into that hype yet. I can't claim to have season tickets to Ratiopharm Ulm, but when I watch highlights I don't really see ELITE traits here. He's not incredibly explosive, he's not a great shooter, he's over-reliant on his left hand. I have no doubt that he has the upside to be a good starter, but I don't think we've seen enough (or at least, I haven't) to make me confident in that projection. best fits Chicago (#4) and Detroit (#7) appear to be the most obvious fits for a potential star guard like Killian Hayes. And while the Knicks may have been underwhelmed by a French PG before, he would make sense for them at #8 as well. worst fits Teams with lead guards locked in -- Golden State (#2), Cleveland (#5), for example -- would be obviously problematic fits for Hayes. While he has the size to play some shooting guard defensively, he has a ways to go before he's a sharpshooting spacer. (9) SG/SF Aaron Nesmith, Vanderbilt (HIGHER than most expert rankings) Back when I was single, I dated a girl who presumably viewed me as a "developmental prospect." She'd always tell me how cool I'd look if I got some new jeans. How hot I'd be if I lost some weight. After a while, reality set in. It ain't happening, honey. What you see is what you get. The whole transformation idea may have worked with Chris Pratt, but it's not going to work with schlubby ol' Zandrick Ellison. Sometimes it feels like NBA teams view prospects in the same delusional way. Josh Jackson can be a superstar -- if he develops his shot! Isaac Okoro can be a great pick -- if he becomes a great shooter! IF IF IF. We tend to forget that it's not that easy for a leopard to change his spots or for a player to suddenly develop a shooting stroke. It may have worked with Kawhi Leonard, but it's not working with most players. Given that, we should value players who already have developed that skill. Aaron Nesmith is one of the best shooters in the draft -- right here, right now. He shot 52% from three and 83% from the line this past season. There's a sample size issue there (he only played 14 games prior to injury), but his shooting form looks fluid and suggests that he should be a legitimate 38-40% shooter from deep. While Nesmith isn't a great athlete or defender, his 7'0" wingspan should help him hang at either the SG or SF spots. All in all, we're talking about a player who should be a starter, or at the very least a high-level rotational player. best fits Aaron Nesmith isn't going to put a team on his back, but he can help carry the load offensively given his shooting ability. That should make him a good fit for a team like New Orleans (#13) as they look to replace J.J. Redick down the road. He'd also be an excellent fit with Orlando (#16) as they eye more shooters/scorers. worst fits It's hard to find a bad fit for a good shooting wing, but there are a few teams that may not have starting positions available. Phoenix (#10) already has Devin Booker and a few solid young SFs. Sacramento (#12) already has Buddy Hield and Bogdan Bogdanovic (presuming they retain them.) (10) PG/SG R.J. Hampton, U.S/N.Z. (HIGHER than most expert rankings) After that rant about delusions of grandeur with development prospects, let me try and talk you into a raw developmental prospect. Like LaMelo Ball, R.J. Hampton went to play in the NBL during his gap year after high school. They were both top 10 prospects going in, but their stocks diverged from there. LaMelo Ball put up big numbers and locked himself into top 3 status. Hampton didn't showcase much (8.8 points per game on 41-30-68 shooting splits) and may drop out of the lottery altogether. But again, I'd caution us to consider context here. LaMelo Ball went to a bad team where he could jack up shots. Hampton played on a contending team that didn't spoon-feed him minutes. Given that limited sample, I'm falling back on the "eye test" here. No doubt, Hampton's shot is a problem. He's a poor shooter now, and it may be 2-3 years before he straightens it out. At the same time, his size and explosion jumps out at you, particularly when he's attacking the basket. He also appears to be a mature and charismatic young man. That combo -- physical talent + basketball character -- tends to be a winning formula. There's some chance Hampton turns out to be a genuine star as a scoring lead guard. There's also a sizable chance he busts. Still, it's the type of gamble that teams in the late lottery should be considering. best fits In a PG-rich class, it'd be bold for Detroit (#8) to reach on R.J. Hampton. Still, he would fit there, as the team could groom him behind Derrick Rose for another year or two until he's ready to take over for major minutes. Any team that can afford him the luxury of patience would be a nice landing spot, even if it means going later in the draft to places like Boston (#14, #26) or Utah (#23.) worst fits I'd be less bullish on R.J. Hampton in situations where he may have to play early and take his lumps. The N.Y. Knicks (#8) have struggled to develop point guards Frank Ntilkina and Dennis Smith already, and a new coaching staff doesn't make those concerns go away. Hampton would also have lower upside on teams that already have scoring guards locked in, like Sacramento (#12) or Portland (#16). (11) PF Obi Toppin, Dayton (LOWER than most expert rankings) When Obi Toppin sees the list of names ahead of him, he should be stewing with rage. He's arguably the most productive player on the entire board. This past season at Dayton, he averaged 20.0 points on 63% shooting from the field. He's a good athlete and dunker, and he even hit 39% of his threes. At 6'9", he's a natural PF but he could theoretically play some SF or C too if need be. What else does a guy need to do to go in the top 5?? But while Toppin checks all the boxes on paper, I'm a little more skeptical. In fact, he reminds me a lot of Arizona PF Derrick Williams, who went # 2 in the 2011 draft. Many pundits thought Williams was the best player in the class, fresh on the heels of an awesome sophomore season that saw him average 19.5 points per game on 60% shooting and 57% (!) from three. The trouble is: Williams benefited from a small sample size from 3 that year (74 total). And while he was athletic in the dunking sense, he didn't have the hip movement to guard 3s or 4s effectively. We see some of the same traits play out here with Toppin. He dominated this past season as a (22 year old) sophomore. Still, I'm doubtful that his three-point shooting is as good as the numbers suggest. I'm doubtful that his run-and-dunk athleticism translates to the defensive end, where he often looks stiff when changing direction. I can see a scenario where Toppin is a scoring big in the mold of a John Collins, but it's more likely to me that he'll be a scorer off the bench instead. best fits While I'm cool on Obi Toppin myself, I fully admit that I could be wrong and he may just end up being Rookie of the Year. That may happen if he plays on a team like Washington (#9) where his guards will be able to take a lot of pressure off and give him good opportunities to score. Cleveland (#5) would also make some sense if they trade Kevin Love. worst fits If Toppin's defense is going to be bad, then he'd be a poor fit with Atlanta (#6). I also don't see much of a fit with Sacramento (#12) given the presence of Marvin Bagley III. In the long run, both may end up being smallball 5s. (12) SF Isaac Okoro, Auburn (LOWER than most expert rankings) We've all had this experience before. You'll go see a movie that you hear everyone rave about and you come away... underwhelmed. It's fine. It's OK. But you just don't get all the fuss about it. Right out of that Silver Linings Playbook comes Isaac Okoro. His stats don't jump off the page: 12.9 points, 4.4 rebounds, 0.9 steals, 0.9 blocks. He's allegedly a great defensive player, but his dimensions (6'6" with a 6'8" wingspan) don't suggest "stopper." Worse yet, he's a poor shooter from distance (29% from three, 67% from the line.) The last time I got this sense of "meh-ness" was Jarrett Culver last year. I didn't understand how he went in the top 5, and I'm not going to understand how Okoro goes in the top 10 this year. To be clear, I don't think Okoro (or Culver) is a BAD prospect, just that they're both overrated by the community. Okoro is definitely a strong kid who is active around the rim. He's a live body. He could theoretically improve his shooting and become a starter. Still, "potential starter" is not something that I want in a top 10 pick. best fits While I don't love Isaac Okoro myself, I can see some good fits on the board. Washington (#9) could use some thicker wings who can play solid defense. Portland (#16) is incredibly desperate for capable wings themselves. worst fits With Okoro, I don't necessarily think the worst fits are a matter of skill set as much as expectation. If he goes as high as Chicago (#4) or Cleveland (#5), I suspect he'll disappoint in terms of the returns and garner some resentment from the fan base. (13) SG/SF Josh Green, Arizona As oddly overrated as Isaac Okoro is (in my mind), Josh Green is oddly underrated. Okoro tends to go about 10 spots higher in mock drafts, but they seem nearly identical in terms of a head-to-head comparison. In fact, I had to go back and forth about which I'd rank higher. They're both good athletes for their position and should be backend starters at the next level. Okoro is thicker and better around the rim, while Green is further along as a shooter. Overall I leaned to Okoro because he had the size to match up with bigger SFs and has a little more of a bullying scorer gene in him, but it was a close race. In fact, you can argue that Josh Green's selflessness will actually benefit him in the NBA. He's a "team guy," with an underrated passing ability and basketball IQ. The stats don't jump off the pages in that regard (2.6 assists, 1.6 turnovers), but he was also playing with a good college PG in Nico Mannion. As he moves to the NBA, he's unlikely to have the ball much either, but he projects to be an all-around glue guy who can help on both ends. best fits As with Isaac Okoro, Portland (#16) could be a nice landing spot for a solid wing player. And while New Orleans (#13) has a lot of athleticism already, it never hurts to have another viable wing. They tended to play small at the SG-SF spot, which hurt their defense overall. Playing Green could help them when they slide Brandon Ingram over to the 4 and Zion Williamson at the 5. worst fits I don't see many "bad" fits for Josh Green on the board, but you'd prefer that he went to a team that intended to make him a part of the future. Minnesota (#17) may not be able to do that if they already have Jarrett Culver and Josh Okogie. Brooklyn (#19) may not be looking for long-term projects since they're in a "win now" mode. (14) PG Tyrell Terry, Stanford Tyrell Terry is rocketing up draft boards on account of his stellar shooting ability (41% from 3, 89% from the line) and his better-than-expected measurement of 6'3". It's only natural that pundits would start comparing him to stud shooters like Steph Curry. That said, not every stud shooter is Steph Curry. Some are Seth Curry. Some are Quinn Cook. There's a slight chance Terry breaks out as a good starter, but there's a better than average chance he peaks as a rotational player instead. Still, he should be an asset to a team as a spacer, particularly if they run their offense through a playmaking forward (like a LeBron James). And in case you're wondering, no he is NOT related to Jason Terry, although some of their skill sets do overlap as scoring guards with deep range. best fits If we presume that Tyrell Terry can be a Seth (not Steph) type player, then adding him to Dallas (#18) makes sense. He can develop behind Seth for a year or two as he gains weight, and then help complement Luka Doncic as a spacer after that. Similarly, he makes sense for Philadelphia (#21) as well. We'd still lock Ben Simmons into the starting PG role, but Terry could play alongside him in lineups or be used as a sparkplug off the bench. worst fits Teams that may be eyeing Tyrell Terry as a surefire starter will have to be careful. For example, Phoenix (#10) needs an heir apparent for Ricky Rubio, but a Terry + Devin Booker combo may be problematic on the defensive end. Some other teams -- Brooklyn (#19) and Denver (#22) -- already have sharpshooter guards, so they don't have as strong of a need for this type of player. (15) PF Aleksej Pokusevski, Serbia We mentioned that LaMelo Ball may be the biggest boom/bust prospect in the class, likening him to gambling on Roulette. Enter Aleksej Pokusevski. "Gambling" may not even be doing it justice. This is like risking your family fortune on a bag of magic beans. But hey, that worked for Jack, and it could work for an NBA team as well. I have a friend who works in coaching who raved about Pokusevski and considers him a top 10 prospect overall. After all, this is a legit 7'0" player with true perimeter skills. Playing for Olympiacos' development team, he averaged 16.7 points, 12.2 rebounds, 4.8 assists, 2.0 steals, and 2.8 blocks per 36 minutes. He hasn't even turned 19 years old yet, giving him an enormous amount of upside. Still, he scares the hell out of me. He's listed at 7'0" and 200 pounds, with narrow shoulders that make you doubt how much weight he'll be able to carry in the long term. His body type doesn't remind you of any current NBA forwards; it reminds you of two kids wearing a trenchcoat. All in all, Pokusevski seems like a great prospect to invest in, presuming you don't have to withdraw from the bank until 2023 or 2024. To that end, teams should only consider them if they feel confident in their long-term job security. best fits If the goal is to send Aleksej Pokusevski to a good, stable organization, then you can't do much better than San Antonio (#11). Even if Gregg Popovich retires from coaching, R.C. Buford should be around to help the next coach (Becky Hammon? Will Hardy? R.C.'s son Chase?). And if the goal is to find a good stable GM, Sam Presti and Oklahoma City (#25) would be a great home as they prepare for a long-term rebuild. worst fits Orlando (#15) always values length, but they have limited space left in the frontcourt and limited leg room left on that poor charter plane. I wasn't kidding when I said this post was "overly" long. The rest of the top 20 got cut off because of a length limit. I'll try to include them in the comment section.
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