To hedge a bet - definition of To hedge a bet by The Free

hedging bets definition

hedging bets definition - win

The Iranian Revolutionary Guard investment wing definitely hedged bets on crude oil before the drone attack on Abqaiq, Saudi Arabia

submitted by TakeBeerBenchinHilux to Showerthoughts [link] [comments]

The real reason Wall Street is terrified of the GME situation

The real reason Wall Street is terrified of the GME situation
I have been following GME since mid-September and over that time I have banked myself a %1300 return in the process. However, the whole time I was a little puzzled with how severe the reactions from Wall Street have been, especially this week. "The company had more than 100% of its stock sold short! That's never happened before!", you say. I know, I know, but that's not actually not a new thing. A short squeeze, even one of this magnitude, should have squoze by now with GME up more than 10x in the span of weeks. Something is just not right. I think there is something much, much bigger going on here. Something big enough to blow up the entire financial system.
Here is my hypothesis: I think the hedge funds, clearing houses, and DTC executed a coordinated effort to put Game Stop out of business by conspiring to create a gargantuan number of counterfeit shares of GME, possibly 100-200% or more of the shares originally issued by Game Stop. In the process, they may have accidentally created a bomb that could blow up the entire system as we know it and we're seeing their efforts to cover this up unfold now. What is that bomb? I believe retail investors may hold more than 100% of GME (not just 100% of the float, more than 100% of the actual company). This would be definitive proof of illegal activity at the highest levels of the financial system.
For you to follow this argument, you need to go read the white paper "Counterfeiting Stock 2.0" so you understand how the hedge funds can create fake stock out of thin air and disguise it so it looks like real shares. They use these fake shares in short attacks to drive the price of a company down until they put them into bankruptcy. This practice seems to be widespread among hedge funds that go short. There is even a term for it, "strategic fails–to–deliver." Counterfeiting shares is extremely illegal (similar level to counterfeiting money) but it's very difficult to prove and even getting the court to approve subpoenas because of the way the financial industry has stacked the deck against investigations.
This completely explains why so many levels of the financial system seem to be actively trying to get in the way of retail investors purchasing more GME. It's not just about a short squeeze, it's about their firms' very existence and their own personal freedom. We have the opportunity to put all these people in jail by proving that we own more than 100% of shares in existence.
There are are 71 million shares of GME that have ever been issued by the company. Institutions have reported to the SEC via 13F filings that they own more than 102,000,000 shares (including the 13% of GME stock is owned by Ryan Cohen). Now, I don't know the delay/variance on these ownership numbers, but I think there is a pretty solid argument that close to 100% of GME is owned by these firms, if not more.
Moreover, there are now more than 7 million people subscribed to wallstreetbets~~. I know lots of people here are sitting on a few hundred shares that they bought back when it was under $50. Some of us are even holding thousands. If the average number of shares owned by each subscriber is even close to 5-10, we have a very good shot at also owning a similarly enormous amount of GME.~~ Even if the average was just 10 shares per legit subscriber, that puts the minimum retail position at about 30-50% of the entire company.
GME has been on the NYSE threshold list for almost a month. We don't have January data yet, but I just analyzed the data from the SEC's fails–to–deliver list for December (all 65,871 lines of it) and looked up the number of shares that were likely counterfeit. For comparison, I did the same for a couple random tickers. Most companies have close to no shares not show up. Of those that do, it's a relatively small number of shares. For example, two random companies: Lowes ($LOW, ~$125B market cap) had 13,960 shares fail to be delivered at its highest point that month, Boston Beer Company ($SAM, $11.5B market cap) had 295 shares fail to be delivered.
How many shares of GME failed to deliver? 1,787,191. As the white papers points out, the true number of counterfeit shares can be 20x this number. How bad do you think that number will be when we get the numbers for January? I'm willing to bet its many times that. Look at how that compares to other companies' stock:
Histogram showing number of shares that weren't delivered in December (x-axis) vs the number of companies that fall into that bin (y-axis). GME is an extreme outlier.
I think this explains all the shenanigans going on the last few days. There is way too much counterfeit GME stock out there and DTC, the clearing houses, and the hedge funds are all in on it. That's why there has been such a coordinated effort to disrupt our ability to buy shares. No real shares can be found and it's about to cause the system to fall apart.
TLDR; We probably own way more of GME than we think and that is freaking out Wall Street because it could prove they've been up to some extremely illegal shit and the whole system could implode as a result.
Disclaimer: I'm just a starving engineering PhD student and I don't work in finance. I have no inside knowledge of how the financial system works and I may be wrong on some of this. This is not financial advice and you shouldn't trade based on it. I am book-smart but I still eat crayons like the rest of you. Obligatory rocket: 🚀

EDIT 0: Looks like I truly belong on this sub. On the first version of this post I didn't read the file description properly and summed a cumulative distribution. My numbers were wrong, but I have updated the plot and post with the correct numbers.
EDIT 1: You should also note this is the distribution for NASDAQ tickers, not the entire NYSE. I doubt that the distribution trend is any different though.
EDIT 2: Evidence that Fannie May and Freddie Mac were killed in 2008 via short attacks using counterfeit shares: report. Exactly what I think they were trying to do to GME.
EDIT 3: A lot of people were hung up on the "3 shares per wsb subscriber thing". I know many accounts are bots, I was intentionally underestimating that number. I have adjusted to 10 shares per "legit subscriber" to reflect this without changing the total amount I think retail owns.
EDIT 4: What I'm seeing on Twitter makes me think I'm being interpreted a little too hyperbolically when I say "Something big enough to blow up the entire financial system." We're not going to go back to mud huts, people. This could just be really disruptive for a short amount of time and cause a number of firms to face liquidity problems, possibly bankrupting some of them. Life will go on and I'm confident regulators and government will step in and protect people if necessary. Hopefully they pay more attention to enforcing securities laws going forward to prevent this from happening again.
EDIT 5: Backup link for white paper.
EDIT 6: I am getting thousands of messages. I won't be able to respond to all of them. Here is an FAQ:
  1. How do I learn investing?I am not an authority on this, but my personal opinion is to first learn how to read a company's financial documents and value businesses and only then start thinking about putting your money into specific stocks. Read "the intelligent investor" by Benjamin Graham for this. Then learn how to think about picking stocks. I like Peter Lynch's books for this.
  2. What is going to happen this week?I have no idea and I wouldn't dare to guess.
  3. Are you going to be killed?I don't know where people are getting this idea. I have no special knowledge or insider contacts, and I am in no way, shape, or form an expert on the market or the system behind it. Please treat my tinfoil-hat conspiracy theories as just that. There is nothing to gain from harming me and I have no doubts about my safety. These are just personal opinions and I don't have any schemes to "take down the shorts" or anything like that. I do not advocate for you to buy, hold, or sell. I'm just postulating on how we might have found ourselves in this place.
submitted by johnnydaggers to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

How a short/gamma squeeze on Tilray is causing the ENTIRE cannabis market to moon and how to avoid becoming a bag holder when this all comes crashing down

How a short/gamma squeeze on Tilray is causing the ENTIRE cannabis market to moon and how to avoid becoming a bag holder when this all comes crashing down
Obligatory: SIR, THIS IS A CASINO. This isn't financial advice in any way shape or form.
TLDR: This run is going to end with the cannabis stocks back down 50-80% or more from the levels they are at. $CRLBF is the real play here for the smart players that want USA exposure to the legislation. We just like the stocks now, not later.
Ok, listen up normies.
Yeah I'm talking to the newbies specifically because the OGs here already know everything I'm about to share, but your insufferable groupthink and movement mentality shit pissed me off enough to make a post. Don't post DD if you have no clue. Ask someone for help and take your ridicule until someone comes along to help you.
I used to post weekly DD on Sunday here a couple of years ago before one of you literally contacted my wife IRL. Not even kidding. So I made a new account. This is my first contribution back and I'm going to try and ensure some of you don't blow your chance at massive gains here by explaining what is actually going on.
CNBC and anybody telling you that this is just 'momentum' and 'sentiment' is lying to you. The hedge funds are playing these right along with us. Don't ask me for proof, this isn't Twitter. Reasons why they are playing with us:
  1. When there is money to be made, hedge funds and HFT funds are there before you
  2. The floats are so small on these they can take sizable positions on both sides and stand to have massive gains, all the while handing you guys the bags.
That's all you need to know.
So in response to all you posting "real DD" with why these companies are the best and you're going to hold to the moon and never sell:
I'm over it -- I can tell instantly how uninformed you are when I read some poorly thought out DD about why CGC or TLRY or APHA is a long term play because they're talking about USA legislation. These are Canadian companies. Get your head back on straight. You're here for the trade and the bet, not for the fundamentals, and if that's it, then fine, ignore the rest of this post and pick an exit, and if not, read on so you don't hold more bags.
This place has never been one to care for fundamentals, but let me talk some sense into you so you can post some gain porn and I can tell you to fuck off instead of you guys all yelling "MaNiPuLaTiOn ShOrT LaDdErS"
Let's take a look at some of today's gainers:
(changed tickers for automod avoidance)
$USMJay - Penny stock, worth absolute nothing for a reason
$SNDL - Up ridiculous amount, have a billion shares outstanding, just diluted them all the other day
$TeeRTeeC - Terra Tech, they grow weed, from all indications, do it poorly
$OhGeeEye - lol
$HUGE - Probably the only one in the lot worth a YOLO on the chance they get an acquisition like GW Pharma did but they don't have the same product portfolio or prospects GW has.

Now, if you're simply playing this to get in and get out, great for you. The people saying (and believing) "$SNDL $10 EOW! HOLD THE LINE" and stuff like this are just absolutely brand new normies and are clueless, do not listen to them. If you yolo'd on cheap calls in Dec/Jan, congrats, take your gains and don't be like the $GME bagholders.
If you're investing in any of the names I just posted above, expect any money you put in to at some point in the next 12 months be worth approximately 20% of what it is worth now. Literally. They're far worse than the main bunch (CGC, CRON, ACB, TLRY, APHA) but the main bunch is nothing to write home about either.

THIS IS WHAT IS REALLY HAPPENING:

Tilray had 40% short interest. It's not $GME level, but it's pretty high. When the stock crested $40 it really started taking off, why though? Notice this week's FD option chain:

https://preview.redd.it/kyqeiwljeug61.png?width=917&format=png&auto=webp&s=0c1b48e12518515f09582289bd7f8a4f47a09629
Tilray has a 95M share float, those 42 calls represent roughly 1.5M shares held as a hedge just by themselves. Previous to this run up, that represents roughly 5% of the average daily volume of the stock, BY ITSELF. Those are shares that until Monday can be considered removed from the float because they're held as a hedge. They may get loaned out to be shorted, but that will only speed up the squeeze here.
The important part: Today (2/10/21) the stock fell hard after open down to around 44 and found massive support all the way back to up 66. The most sold front week call? $40/$42 strikes. Premium when I screen shotted this? $22.20. Stocks going to pin above $60 for awhile likely, unless people are stupid enough to buy the OTM calls, in which case, it may squeeze itself higher.
Smart hedge funds are going to pile into this, sell you the calls, shove the price up to keep selling you calls, then watch them all evaporate worthless in one of the future weeks in the chain, dump back the shares to help shove the price down, oh and did I mention? They shorted the top.

https://preview.redd.it/ivy78woneug61.png?width=392&format=png&auto=webp&s=0604940c09126dc6d5b96a9cc5f17e4013ae5d9d
It's just another plain old stock acting as a derivative of the option chain gamma squeeze. That's it, with a bit of short squeeze thrown in there and a WHOLE BUNCH of WSB fomo. The shorts are covering and pushing up the volume, likely re-shorting on the way up, and then you have WSB fomo'ing in to round out the total: a massive volume of 200 million shares today. You've got people that think this thing will skyrocket to 500+ (and it may) but the stakes get higher and higher each ladder up you take and the moves become more violent and more likely it comes all the way back down in short time the quicker it goes up.
Might it get there? Sure. But be prepare to take profits when it does because...

ITS CALLED MEAN REVERSION. THIS CANT GO ON FOREVER.

Not to mention, the moves you are seeing are in completely overvalued companies, with horrible fundamentals, and poor prospects.
Oh what's that? CGC got some CBD treats for Martha, seems fitting that something ill is going on in this industry considering she went to prison for insider trading. If the dog treats get you excited about the stock, Martha belongs here more than you do.
200M shares today means people who were long term bag holders cashed out and the shares have turned over the float two times in two days. That also means the shorts have turned over and are now short again. It means the HFT firms are feasting on all of you. It means Citadel is making a pile on the spreads.
What to take away: An amount of shares equal to the entire float has changed hands, or in other words, fewer reason for people to bag hold. Fewer people that have to hedge. Fewer people that have to cover. Fewer people to help stabilize any of these upper price tiers, and keep the price stable by holding, and more reason it's going to collapse sooner (or later).
But, this IS a casino after all...

Let's see what happened with TLRY last time this happened (oh, you're new here? Yeah, this isn't the first time):


https://preview.redd.it/p652mvgreug61.png?width=587&format=png&auto=webp&s=d95f2b0ccf946717859bffb28601dfd29e999e0b
Looks eerily familiar to something else recently. Last time this occurred it traded between $100 and $300 in a single week timeframe.
For those of you that are new: THIS IS NOT NORMAL. STOCKS DO NOT ALWAYS DO THIS. You are in the infancy of a new age of trading, but people still know, fundamentals matter a whole lot more than everyone is leading on, and these valuations are getting extremely overextended.
Eventually, in the first squeeze Tilray bled off until the pandemic hit and it piled down to $2.43 a share. At $2.43/share, I would have bought it. Even at $10/12/14. At these levels? You're just ultimately out of touch but I look forward to the loss porn.
So in short, again: Sir, this is a casino.

Timeline of events, and how to not become a bagholder:
  1. $APHA earnings are good, stocks pop a bit, and level off
  2. Legislators pull a pump and dump since they probably have calls and say planning on some laws regarding changing the schedule of cannabis (notice: we will likely NOT get outright legalization, just re-scheduling)
  3. $CGC earnings are actually awful, with the caveat they have profitability on the horizon
  4. $TLRY gets a UK deal
  5. $TLRY starts going insane - since $APHA is a reverse merger with a .81 value share to share, it starts pumping, people start buying the lower priced cannabis stuff and entire sector starts moving on "overall strength"
  6. There's no strength, there's a gamma squeeze backed by investor momentum, and a short squeeze on Tilray.
  7. This is going to come back down violently then plateau out like GME and pull a slow bleed the rest of the way back down, just like the second graph I posted. There is no fundamental or even POSSIBILITY of better fundamentals immediately on US legislation. The cost to enter the US market will most definitely cause capex and goodwill capital outflows, and set back their profitability since there are established MSO's in the USA already. The USA opening the market to these companies will only further degrade the actual balance sheets/income statements and slow down profits and you know what institutions and shareholders like? Yep. Profits.
  8. Finally, how to not become a bag holder: The market can stay irrational way, way, way longer than you expect. So this may go on for a bit, but refer back to 7. It's coming back down eventually, set expectations and pick your exit, or start to shave off your position as it goes up and let a portion of it run. Eventually, you have to sell to actually realize a gain, don't forget that. Once you do, close the chart, remove it from your watchlist, check back in on it in a month if you want to get back in when you have a clear head.
The Canadian operators are literally the last companies I'd play off a US legislation play, and one of the only ones worth owning in $APHA for the arbitrage play on the shares. But if Tilray comes crashing back down, $APHA will as well along with all of them, and you have to hope you lose a lot less on $APHA crashing than you'll make on the arbitrage between the share price.
THIS IS ALL JUST "SENTIMENT" BASED YOLOING BY THIS SUB. It has probably driven uneducated retail into the trades also - who will also become bag holders.

Let me put this in big letters for those of you that can only read big font and use crayons:

NONE OF THESE COMPANIES HAVE REAL USA MARKET EXPOSURE, THEY ARE CANADIAN COMPANIES. THEY DO NOT HAVE MARKET POSITIONING AND ARE NOT POISED TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF US LEGALIZATION.

IF ANYTHING: IT WILL HURT THEIR BOTTOM LINE AND SET BACK EARNINGS BECAUSE OF CAPEX AND CASH OUTFLOWS TO GET A POSITION IN THE MARKET AND SOME OF THEM WILL GO OUT OF BUSINESS BECAUSE OF IT, WHILE OTHERS WILL FALL OUT OF PROFITIABILITY TO ENTER THE MARKET AND COMPETE WITH THE REAL PLAYERS.

Who are the real players? (Cresco $CRLBF and Curaleaf $CURLF - do your own DD or wait for a post next week\***************)*

Conclusion: Nobody should plan on holding these long term. Don't let someone else hand you bags like I did this morning at open on the pop unless you plan to hand your bags off and find the next play.
You likely will not time the top. Pick a place you're ready to exit the trade, exit the trade or slowly shave your position, close the graphs and don't fomo back in. Just be done with the trade afterwards. You're likely not a cannabis multi millionaire and will not be one, unless you were loaded to the brim with low cost calls from last summefall or unless you literally yolo'd $10M into one of these a few weeks ago, and in that case, you belong here, congrats on your gains and fuck you.
THIS IS A SECTOFOMO SQUEEZE. AND IT WILL END. THIS IS NOT SENTIMENT AND CNBC IS TROLLING US WITH IT LIKE WE HAVE THE POWER.
And if you think WE are the ones driving the price up, the hedge funds are definitely watching and playing and they can bring these down at will at almost any time they want. You're holding a lit molotov, the only question is: will you throw it before it blows up?
The rest of you? Plz fuck off with you 20 shares @ $2 on Sundial, fuck off with the "HOLD THE LINE SNDL $10 EOW", fuck off with your fomo, and fuck off with the "movement" and "lets push this to the sky" stuff and most importantly don't post DD if you have zero clue what is going on.
You know what "lets push this to the sky" sounds like? Market manipulation. We're not in this together, I literally handed one of you a bag to hold this morning and even if they go up for another month, eventually, that bags gonna be heavy and I ain't coming back for it. I ain't tipping you either.
These prices are insanely high for these companies. The multiples are out of control, and if you buy in at these levels, well, best of luck, I hope it works out for you. I'm fighting the fomo of extended gains, and will continue to put my money elsewhere.

SIR, THIS IS A CASINO.

Positions: I had the meme stocks like you literally all of them minus ACB and CGC. I took gains and bought 500 shares of Cresco prob increasing to 1,000 tomorrow, and kept the rest off the table to pay my wife's boyfriend's rent.
Disclaimer: I have Tilray puts I'm prepared to average down on and diamond hand like a real boss because this is coming back down.


Edit: You know what I forgot to add? Some of the biggest holders, the cannabis ETFs and funds, you know what they did today? They trimmed their positions. And they will continue to do so because of fiduciary responsibility and when you de-concentrate shares into the retail's hands, the moves will get more and more finnicky and more and more violent.
Edit 2: Some normie tried calling me out like I never saw this trade coming or am a hedge shill, https://imgur.com/a/asAVkiC - I had thousands of shares, these are just the trades from this month, and I'm not advocating a buy, I sold mostly all of them this morning except for adding Cresco back in. You want the gain numbers? You do the math, I'm not your math tutor, I sold like 6 minutes after open for most of them. I have Tilray puts for next week and will be buying a few months out at various strikes as it continues to climb.
Yeah, I think these are coming back down in price sooner rather than later, that isn't extraordinary information for a common sense person.
Edit 3: I'm getting piles of messages from people who used to follow my DD back in 2018/2019. Yes, it's the real SoRefreshing, proof: https://imgur.com/a/Pn5LqCe
Edit 4: Eh don't request me with "What should I do with XX" be a big adult grown up and decide your own risk tolerance and exits. I responded to the first 10 or so. Now I have 100. I can't. I disabled chat messages.
Edit 5: jesus with the awards go buy TSLA calls this is WSB not fb/twtr disclaimer: have TSLA calls
Edit 6: Oh look, they're pinning it around the $42 strike. Go figure.
submitted by OhSoRefreshing to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Feminists hedge their bets. SNL suspends Rich indefinitely instead of definitely firing her. Showing again that they have 2 sets of rules.

Feminists hedge their bets. SNL suspends Rich indefinitely instead of definitely firing her. Showing again that they have 2 sets of rules. submitted by andejoh to MensRights [link] [comments]

GME EndGame part 3: A new opponent enters the ring

GME EndGame part 3: A new opponent enters the ring
Wow - what a week. This is an extension of my DD series on GME. If you haven’t read them and have time, they will provide some background on my previous predictions, some of which have already come true.

Previous Important Posts

  • EndGame Part 1 (DTC Infinity) covered the short positions, the float, and potential snowball impacts of increasing prices, and argued that part of the reason that shorts haven’t closed was that it was pretty much impossible for shorts to close
  • EndGame Part 2 covered Cohen, fair market cap analysis, and potential investors, in which I talked about the amazing mid-to-long term potential for GME.
  • After the Citron tweet, I shared this fan fiction on what looked like blatant market manipulation by shorts on the day of the tweet, and offered some education on strengthening your position. This one got buried and is worth reading.

What’s happened thus far

Why did GME go up on Friday?

The story here is more complex than paid media articles would like you to believe. GME has been driven up by 3 different forces:
  • Organic buying
    • There is a mixture of growing positive sentiment in the investor world (not just WSB) about GME’s future
    • There’s been a lot of good due diligence shared not just on WSB but even outside (for example, see gmedd.com)
    • The Citron Backfire
      • Shorts were on the ropes and kept looking for hail mary’s. They went to Citron and coordinated a dump to try to bring the price down.
      • However, this backfired. Citron is so disliked in the industry that new wealth poured into GME in the face of Andrew Left’s pleas. Even when Benzinga brought Andrew Left on air, minutes after he left they bought shares live on their show.
      • The next day, our very on u/Uberkikz11 was on Benzinga and more shares were bought.
    • Larger investors piling in
  • Gamma squeeze
    • Once the organic buying started, we rolled into a gamma squeeze. Many people written about the gamma squeeze so I won’t repeat, see this post for an example.
  • Ultra low liquidity - In EndGame part 1, I talked about how the actual actively traded shares are much lower than the reported float, and share availability has been reducing driven by lots of diamond hands, not just among smaller guys like us but the larger folks too.
  • I believe there were some short covers on Friday, but Ortex was still estimating 71M shares short at the eod.
However, not many people have talked about why it went down

Why did GME come down?

Here’s where things got interesting for me, and something I think happened again today (Monday) when GME climbed up over 100% but then had a rapid reversal, closing 20% above yesterday but closing below open.
So Friday looked like a slam dunk - gamma squeeze, no shorts available to short, puts were getting exceedingly expensive as a short tactic. What happened?
This is my fan fiction, based on what I saw.
I believe market-makers took a non-neutral stance and began actively shorting the stock after the second halt.
Market-makers are responsible for maintaining liquidity and functioning in the stock market, but they also have abilities that others don’t - for example they are legally allowed to naked short for “liquidity purposes”. They also have the ability to halt trading.
There were two halts in the day on Friday: First, when GME was up 69% (heh heh), and then a few minutes later when it kept climbing after the first halt was relaxed. Note that at the time of the first halt, the bid-ask spread was $10 on the underlying a huge signal that there just were not enough shares to buy.
However, after the second halt, something strange happened. Whereas a few minutes prior, there were no sellers willing to sell their shares below $75, within 15 minutes after the halt there were sellers at 70, 65, 60, and 56. Where did these sellers come from?

Incredible momentum reversal on Friday 1/22 to push the price not too far above the 60c strike price.
My speculation? This was a coordinated naked short ladder attack. In this type of attack, short seller A sells to short seller B, who then turns around to short seller A at a lower price, etc. and with a very small amount of capital you can wreck the momentum of a stock and make people think that others are running for the exits.
Notice how the stock dropped from a high of $75 on Friday to below 60 - the highest expiring SP for the 1/22 options, and stayed tight in range for the rest of the day. Now, for compliance reasons, MM are required to be neutral by EOD, so 20 minutes before close, MMs had to buy back all their short positions, which led to the strong close above 60.
All this led me to believe that the real fair market price for GME was above $65. Without the market makers interference, GME would have closed higher.

A repeat on Monday

The short ladder attack repeated on Monday.
GME opened strong above $90, and quickly climbed to a high above $155 before it was halted, immediately after the halt, a short ladder attack again drove the price down

Dejavu - Incredible Momentum Reversal after trading halts.
Both days, there were rapid and significant reversals in momentum.
Now, I kept wondering - why would MM’s take the side of the shorts? What’s in it for them? One theory was that they were not adequately hedged, with the low liquidity of the stock meaning that the price was moving up too fast for them to acquire the shares they needed to.
But then the news hit today:

A new opponent enters the ring:


https://preview.redd.it/8htb0scgpkd61.png?width=926&format=png&auto=webp&s=228a8a84e592ea4642a61c5e07e07ae344ac8f2c
That’s right, the same Citadel listed by the NYSE as one of their designated market makers is now invested in Melvin’s hedge fund and has a financial interest in the direction of GME’s share price.
Hey media - you want a manipulation story? You’re missing the big one.

Now what?

Shorts have pulled new dirty tactics each time they’ve been pushed to the edge. Paid media attacks, Citron’s fluff tweet + coordinated shorting, and now they’ve got the actual people who get all the order flow on their side.
On the other hand, GME is still up over 20% and now trading at $88.00 after hours, which is well above the previous day’s high.

https://preview.redd.it/rr5qet4ipkd61.png?width=724&format=png&auto=webp&s=96d28bf446a714906712503726f5903a681d5368
What this tells me is that GME’s true price is still being suppressed. They are using every tactic possible, even changing the bid-ask spread rules on options to specifically target retail’s buying of options.
We’re now playing the game against the folks who write the rules of the game.
Some shorts may have covered today - with prices below $60 at one point they had some great opportunities to. However, there is no way all of the shorts who need to exit covered today.
The short position still lost 20% from yesterday. They’ve got more fingers in the dam, but it’s definitely cracking. Also, every call option purchased prior to 1/25 is ITM and profitable, while every put option purchased prior to 1/25 is OTM.
And, for some reason, the SEC still doesn’t want to enforce the threshold securities list for GME, where it’s now been on for more than 30 days in a highly covered “short squeeze”.

https://preview.redd.it/rbrf6khjpkd61.png?width=936&format=png&auto=webp&s=7e4f432ff02dbf475a03cc68c54a5a0f5f0de429

Margin impacts:

Note that at this point, most brokers have increased margin on GME. This means that people that are long or short on margin will need to put up capital to hold their positions.
This also means puts will get more expensive as people who sell puts will have to maintain 100% of the notional in their accounts to secure the put, so MMs will have fewer retail sellers of puts to absorb the demand.
That means it’s not a bad idea to sell puts to acquire shares if you’re aiming for the long-term and not the squeeze, but keep in mind you’ll need the exact same capital as if you’d bought the shares, so it’s up to you on this.
For shorts, a margin increase while the price is moving against you (even with retracements) is no good.

My speculation

  • Cohen and the GME board have been strangely silent this entire run. It’s possible they can’t say anything at all during the pre-earnings quiet period, but I’m sure they can see what’s happening.
  • MMs will continue to play dirty, but at the same time they will need to continue to need to buy GME shares to delta hedge 1/29 and later ITM options as we get closer to expiry.

Things to be careful about

As you can see, this is no easy win. I've been in GME for a few months but I've seen almost every trick in the book. In addition to the suggestions I wrote about in this post, here’s some things to be careful about.
  • Be careful about swapping ITM calls for OTM calls: it can be tempting to trade-up your options for higher return, but be mindful of the delta impact. You may actually be driving the sale of shares by MMs when you don’t mean to. For example, if you sell a .5 delta call for 2 .2 delta calls, that’s net reduction of 10 shares that MMs have to hold long as leverage.
  • Be careful about being short any calls this week: Not only do you limit your upside (which is dumb in the prospect of a squeeze), you could end up in a nightmare scenario. A call that ends OTM on Friday could end up ITM after hours if you didn’t sell it, and you may get assigned while the underlying continues to go up.
  • There are a few other dirty tactics shorts can play. I’m not specifically going to share them here because I don’t want to give the ideas circulation, but
    • Choose your own limit sells based on personal sell points. Don’t copy others and don’t try to be memey. Make your own decisions.
    • Stop sharing your positions publicly. I know this is anti-wsb, and I think sharing them is great for this community, but in the case of GME it’s an attack vector for you.
  • Be careful of holding weeklies until expiration. Remember the multiple trading halts? What if trading gets halted on Friday at 2pm and doesn’t resume for the rest of the day? All your 1/29 calls would expire worthless. Depending on your broker and your cash positions, maybe even your ITM ones. Roll (or sell, if you’re taking profits) your weeklies well before expiration.
  • Be careful about buying on margin. Brokers are rapidly increasing margins. If you bought on margin with 2:1 leverage, and the stock went up 100%, you’d be in margin call even without a margin change. If the broker moves margin against you, you’ll get to margin call faster.
  • Don’t bet more than you can afford to lose. I’ve been in GME long enough to know that just when you think going up is a sure thing (remember last Monday with the short sale restriction?), you can be surprised by a new trick. If you bet it all on weeklies all at once, you may not be able to recover from being wrong on the timing. Consider longer expiry or spreading your purchases out. I’ve held through multiple 30-40% drawdowns in the underlying; and held through a 50% drawdown today, so you need to be ready for the volatility.
  • Watch out for stop loss hunts. It’s common practice for shorts to hunt for stop losses for cheap shares. If you’ve set a stop loss, be really sure about it.
This is not financial advice; do your own DD. I’m holding over $1M in shares and calls.

1/26 Update

Hi everyone. Sorry for not posting or replying to comments. I was auto-banned from WSB when this post was auto-deleted by the auto-mod. Thanks to u/zjz to reversing the auto-deletion of the post though as it looked like it was helpful to the community.
Hope you all made a ton of money today!
Quick Notes:
  • At an after-hours price of $209 a share, every call option, for every expiry, for every strike price is in-the-money. This is the third time this has happened for GME recently. Amazing. What this means now is that market makers will need to buy a lot of shares to hedge for the calls expiring this week. Heed my above warnings.
  • At this price, shorts will start to get liquidated. Combining the 400% weekly gain with the margin requirements increasing across the board, brokers will force close short positions. Starting maybe with the small guys, but it will cause a ripple effect. Things could move fast. Some funds may get additional bailouts this week to hold out.
  • You need to decide your own exit. Only you know how much $ you're playing with, how much you're willing to lose, how important the $ is to you, etc. Minimize you're regret, don't maximize your profits. If you are thinking about taking profits this week, spread out your sells so you don't kick yourself over timing things poorly. Personally, I think we are in unprecedented territory and that there's no way all of the shorts have exited already, so we're not done. I could be wrong. See EndGame part 1.
  • Close spreads. With every call ITM, you are at the risk of early-assignment. If you don't watch closely, you could be hit with sky-high hard-to-borrow fees and get killed on what you thought was a profitable trade.
  • Watch for ripple effects. This is already happening. When funds get liquidated, they have to buy back all their other shorts (see AMC, BBBY) and sell their longs (look at BABA after-hours). Want to play GME without playing GME? Maybe throw a little $ at BBBY. You do you.
  • In EndGame Part 2, I talked about potential investors, and how the higher price is gonna attract the bigger $. Today we saw Chamath, Winklevoss, and others. And then Elon tweeted and simultaneously stimulated the buying frenzy and scared the crap out of shorts. I'm just gonna copy what I said about this potentiality
    • Elon: (Least likely, completely improbable, but cataclysmic event). Elon hates shorts. Elon, with TSLA, went through the pain that GME is going through. TSLA almost went bankrupt because shorts were pushing the price down so it was difficult to raise the cash they needed to survive. Sound familiar? Elon’s wealth swings more in a day than GME is worth in entirety. Elon could buy all the fucking float of GME with what he makes in 8 hours. One call from fellow entrepreneur and aspiring twitter-meme-god would absolutely wreck the game.
  1. If you are short gamestop, you are one meme purchase by the richest man in the world away from a fucking cataclysmic event. "Hey son, I heard you like games. So I bought you gamestop. All of it." 🚀


submitted by FatAspirations to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

My Options Overview / Guide (V2)

Greeting Theta Gang boys and girls,
I hope you're well and not bankrupt after last week. I'm just now recovering mentally myself. I saw a few WSB converts and some newbies asking for tips, so here you go. V2 of my Options guide. I hope it helps.

I spent a huge amount of time learning about options and tried to distill my knowledge down into a helpful guide. This should especially be useful for newbies and growing options traders.
While I feel I’m a successful trader, I'm not a guru and my advice is not meant to be gospel, but this will hopefully be a good starting point, teach you a lot, and make you a better trader. I plan to keep typing up more info from my notebook, expanding this guide, and posting it every couple months.
Any feedback or additions are appreciated
Per requests, I added details of good and bad trades I made. Some painful lessons learned are now included. I also tried to organize this better as it got longer.
Here's what I tell options beginners:
I would strongly recommend buying a beginner's options book and read it cover to cover. That helped me a lot.
I like this beginner book: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B00GWSXX8U/ref=cm_sw_r_cp_apa_OxNDFb2GK9YW7
Helpful websites:
Don't trade until you understand:
Basics / Mechanics
General Tips and Ideas:
Profit Retention / Loss Mitigation
Trade Planning & Position Management Tips
-Advanced Beginner-
Spreads
Trading Mechanics, Taxes, Market Manipulation
-Intermediate / Advanced Strategies (work in progress)-
You’ll notice many of these strategies inverse one another.
Options Strategy Finder
This website is great for learning about new strategies, you’ll see many links to it below.
https://www.theoptionsguide.com/option-trading-strategies.aspx
Short Strangle / Straddle
Iron Condor and Iron Butterflies
Long Condor (Debit Call Condor)
Short Condor (Credit Call Condor)
Reverse Iron Condor
LEAPs
PMCC / PMCP
Advanced Orders

Disclaimer:
I’m not a financial adviser, I'm actually an engineer. I’m not telling you to invest in a specific stock/option or even use a specific strategy. I’ve outlined and more extensively elaborated on what I personally like. You should test several strategies and find what works best for you.
I'm just a guy who trades (mainly options) part-time for financial gain and fun. I don't claim to be some investing savant.
submitted by CompulsionOSU to thetagang [link] [comments]

To Ape Gang: Why Sentiment Has Turned Against You

To Ape Gang: Why Sentiment Has Turned Against You
I want you to understand this. Truly.
I like GameStop. I like $GME. I believe in the long term plan (or what I/we think is the plan, anyway). I bought a Pro Membership and have put in orders through the app I downloaded. I think they'll kill 4Q earnings in March.
I THINK GAMESTOP IS A GOOD COMPANY. I think Cohen and his team bring something to the table that will truly turn around the company. I think CNBC and particularly Melissa Lee can go suck an egg with their dismissiveness of the bull case, which they barely even pretend to have considered. I think the stock was and has been manipulated as fuck.
My personal belief, which I require nobody else to share, is that Ryan Cohen and gang also still have more buying to do, and their buying alone will drive the price up. But my belief is that they have no interest in buying at this price, or they'd have done so. I believe they're waiting for the price to fall back toward the fair market value. And I believe they may force the issue by issuing more shares. That's what I believe, and why I'm not holding positions right now. I probably will in the future, but my personal opinion is the time is not right.
I wrote these posts:
https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/l6n4lj/on_leverage_supply_demand_how_we_got_here_gme/
https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/l6rsol/heres_the_letter_i_wrote_to_my_congressman/
(EDIT: lol I just realized both of those posts aren't visible since they were removed by the mods. They were pro-retail and pro-GME)
I want to see people make money on this. Better yet, I WOULD LIKE TO MAKE MONEY ON THIS.
Further, what Robinhood did, as well as Webull, Interactive Brokers, E*Trade, EToro, and tons of other brokerages did, was fucked up. Everybody here agrees.
But you guys are actually fucking insane. We dont have a problem with the stock. We have a problem with YOU.
Many of the people who have joined WSB in the past two weeks are brand new to investing. And that's okay! But the new people (7 million new versus 1.5 million old) have done the following:
  • Spent weeks downvoting every single ticker besides GME, AMC, BB, and NOK
    • Failed to realize there is no short squeeze on BB or NOK
    • Failed to realize the NOK spam was purely from bots
      • While you've realized there were bots that were bought, you missed (probably because you were spamming rocket emojis and gorillas) that the bots were spamming NOK.
    • Continually asked what stock WE are going to MANIPULATE next
  • Tried to educate the crowd on terminology you just googled ten minutes earlier.
    • I saw one person disagreeing with a long-time and well-respected poster here by telling other Apes to ignore that post, and to instead read a copied and pasted two paragraph blurb from investopedia that explained the effect of a stock split on a short position.
  • Made up securities laws and terminology that doesn't actually exist
    • Short ladders? Every time a price falls from a peak it's a short ladder? EVERY TIME?
    • You don't think that there's a natural reversion in the balance of supply & demand after a stock runs up thousands of percent in a matter of days?
  • With zero understanding of market mechanics, explaining to others why price action is fake
    • "Look how low volume is on this candle! It's not a real drop!"
    • the dip is fake
  • Called people who have been involved in this play since Summer 2020 "paperhand pussies" for taking profits when the price of the stock went up 1,500%
  • Turned WallStreetBets into a political activism forum
  • Denying Reality
    • S3 partners is not lying to you. They and Ortex are consistently the best sources of difficult-to-obtain information on short interest. Just because they're reporting that short % of float is reduced FROM THE HIGHEST LEVEL THAT ANY STOCK HAS EVER HAD does not mean that they're lying to you.
  • Spammed low-effort memes and easily-Googleable questions on the new submissions
    • When your posts were taken down, you posted AGAIN
  • Accused anybody with an opposing opinion of being a hedge fund shill/bot
  • AGGRESSIVELY spamming to find buyers to help you get out of your huge negative position
  • I want to gag every time I see somebody write "I'm not a financial advisor" following a post that makes that very clear
  • Moving the goalposts
    • "YOU ARE HERE on the VW short squeeze graph!"
    • "We finished above $325! Gamma squeeze!" (Personal confession, I almost fell for this one and I'm glad I sold before the plummet).
    • "Ok so there was no gamma squeeze Monday but Tuesday is the day!"
    • "Ok we fell another 50% Tuesday but definitely Wednesday!"
    • "Fuck it let's just harrass investor relations to help us!"
  • Accused the mods of being paid off by hedge funds for doing what they've always done, which is remove shit-tier posts from the front page
    • which you then posted again
      • and again
  • Completely ignored the rules of our subreddit
    • Market Manipulation --
    • No Pump & Dumps -- pressuring other people to buy low float stocks (such as GME) so that you can drive up buying demand and sell when you've decreased your losses is a scam.
    • Political Bullshit -- If you think "it's not about the money" then get the fuck out because it is absolutely about the money.
    • No Bullshitting -- There are so many of you advising others on their trades (followed by "This is not financial advice, am ape") while you have no idea what the fuck you're talking about aside from something you just read on Reddit 5 minutes ago, which was posted by somebody else who had no idea what the fuck they were talking about, which was based on a tweet they read 10 minutes before that from someone who DID know what they were talking about, but OP misinterpreted the meaning.
      • Believe it or not, that's against the rules. Just say you dont know. Or say nothing. There's actually no need to spam.
  • Gain & Loss Posts - nobody wants to see your Loss on one-third of a share of AMC. Come on.
  • YOLO - Your investment in one-third of a share of AMC is not a YOLO. A YOLO is DFV leveraging up his entire $55,000 account with positions in a single ticker and letting it ride or die.
  • Drowned out a lot of really good content on non-GME stuff
  • And you've now begun brigading WSB from GME.
You have formed a cult. You've now decided, amongst yourselves, that anybody who is not in on your play and wants to discuss other things is just a paid hedge fund shill. Do you think that's a healthy mindset?
If this is the investment that you truly want to make, and you feel you have an understanding of the risks, then fucking let it rip. I hope it works out. Seriously, I want you to make money. I like Gain porn a lot more than Loss porn.
But stop bullshitting. Stop brigading. Stop spamming.
You're driving us nuts.

https://preview.redd.it/h7xqt1iw97g61.jpg?width=466&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=bc87b50bb806d2bedbb5aa0c3fa1ff56d19660b2
submitted by OlyBomaye to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Where's Vegetto Rank in GT?

Tldr: frankly I don’t really know about Vegetto, but on its own GT’s power scale is actually pretty simple. Honest!
Vegetto shows up, is the strongest character in DBZ and the original manga, and then helpfully goes away again until DBS. This means he’s not around for GT, which obviously makes any direct comparison between him and GT characters tricky. Still, there are two big pieces of evidence that got brought out on this issue. The first is in GT ep.29, when Baby absorbs power from the Saiyans under his sway to become Super Baby 1 (the stage before his full black-suited form, Super Baby 2). Prior to this point, Goku merely said that it’d been “a long time” since he’d fought anyone as strong as Vegeta-Baby, but in response to Super Baby 1 he says “I’ve never felt ki as awesome as this!”
If taken at face value, this would imply that Super Baby 1 is more powerful (or at least more “awesome”) than Super Vegetto, which would in turn make Super Vegetto greatly inferior to Super Saiyan 4 Goku. There’s no follow-up to this line though, and if the writers really had in mind that Super Baby was stronger than Vegetto, you’d think they might want to stress that a bit more. As far as Vegetto comparisons go, it’s definitely less explicit than Goku’s line in BoG about how even fusing with Vegeta wouldn’t be enough to beat Beerus. From a purely in-universe logistics perspective as well, it’s got to be asked: can people even sense their own ki? Vegetto himself was surprised at how easily he was able to beat Buu, so the idea that Goku necessarily has a good grasp on Vegetto’s true power is maybe at least a little iffy.
The other main piece of evidence isn’t from the GT series itself, but from a special bonus feature in Shueisha’s animanga adaption of GT’s Goku Jr TV special. This “Goku History” section goes over Goku’s life story and various different forms (up until the end of the Baby arc), and for Vegetto it says:
Vegetto is the fusion of Goku and Vegeta via an item called Potara!! He can also transform into Super Vegetto, his Super Saiyan form!! As you’d expect of a fusion between the mightiest pair, they’ve become the strongest in the universe!! Maybe even stronger than Super Saiyan 4?!
So there you have it: a bonus feature with definitely no Toriyama involvement and probably no involvement from anyone who actually wrote GT either says that Vegetto is “maybe” stronger than SS4. Alright, so it is still an official Shueisha publication, but even if we accept this as 100% canon, what does a 100% canonical “maybe” mean in concrete terms? This is a running theme with a lot of these statements from guidebooks and other official secondary sources, since they love hedging their bets.
Unhelpfully, there’s also no rationale given for why Vegetto is “maybe” stronger than SS4, besides being the fusion of the “mightiest pair” (again, this feature only covers up to the Baby arc, so there’s no mention of SS4 Gogeta). I think their logic might go something like this: SS4 Goku is stronger than SS3 Goku, by definition. But Vegetto was also stronger than SS3 Goku, without even trying too hard, and with (presumably) his own SS3 form held in reserve. Since Vegetto never even comes close to fighting at full power, it does make it difficult to say for sure what his limits might be (at least if we’re looking at DBZ alone; Super at least makes this simpler, a bit, maybe).
With that in mind, at this point I’d like to suggest reconciling these two pieces of evidence with the cop-out that perhaps Super Baby 1 is stronger than Super Vegetto (ie Vegetto’s regular Super Saiyan form) but that SS3 Vegetto is the form that’s “maybe” stronger than SS4 Goku. After all, Vegetto never went SS3, which means when Goku says Baby's better than anyone he's ever sensed, he can't possibly be including SS3 Vegetto on that list. This might be tricky in terms of the Super Exciting Guide multipliers for SS2 and SS3 (x2 and x4 respectively), but that came years later and therefore wasn’t a factor when the Goku Jr animanga people wrote that statement. It’s also my contention that thinking in terms of multipliers has never done anybody the least amount of good, but I’ll probably have to tackle that topic some other time.
Alright then, without bringing multipliers into this, how can we gauge the difference between Super Baby 1 and SS4 Goku? Or the difference between SS3 Goku and SS4, for that matter? If you’ve been following this series of posts so far (not necessarily recommended), then you know I like to sort things into tier lists. So let’s sort out the internal power scale of GT itself, from SS3 Goku on up. This shouldn’t take too long.
Goku doesn’t use Super Saiyan 3 against anyone until Vegeta-Baby. In other words, no opponent up until that point is enough to make him go all-out, not even Rild with all his hype of having a bigger ki than Buu (another topic for another time). Vegeta-Baby beats him up pretty good (though it’s implied that it would’ve been a closer match if Goku’s stamina wasn’t so bad in his kid form), then powers up twice, into Super Baby 1 and finally Super Baby 2, who has punches that tickle Super Saiyan 4 Goku. Later on, SS4 Goku has an even match against Great Ape Baby, then a tough time against Super 17, and an even tougher time against the Yi Xing Long (Syn Shenron). He then powers up thanks to his family into Ultra Full Power Super Saiyan 4 and overwhelms Yi, forcing him to absorb all the Dragon Balls and become the Super Yi Xing Long (Omega Shenron), who then gets toyed with by SS4 Gogeta. Then there’s a bunch of stuff with a Spirit Bomb, but whatever. So…
Who am I leaving out? Well for one thing there’s Super Uub, who seems to do better against Super Baby 2 than Goku did, but who gets turned into chocolate and eaten. It turns out that this was, of course, simply all part of his ingenious plan, but if he’s resorting to schemes like that it surely means he realized that he couldn’t beat Baby going head-to-head. Therefore I’ll assume Super Uub is probably on par with Vegeta-Baby or Super Baby 1. Then in the Super 17 arc he seems to do worse against Super 17 than regular Super Saiyan Goku, but that is (you guessed it) another topic for another time, and I’ll just write it off as a fluke for now.
Next is Golden Great Ape Goku. Baby looks pretty nervous when Goku transforms, then starts acting cocky, but then gets swatted around by Goku a bit. Old Kai says Goku needs to control his power in order to become SS4, which might imply Gold Ape and SS4 have the same brute strength, but even if that’s true all Ape can do is rampage around mindlessly; his fighting ability is clearly inferior to SS4. Overall Great Ape is either in the same tier as Baby 2, or in a tier between Baby 2 and SS4.
What about the other dragons? The Si Xing Long (Nuova) seems pretty equal to SS4 Goku (even the narrator says so, in the animanga anyway), and San (Eis) seems close, but inferior to his brother. Goku brags about being able to beat him with just his legs/in 10 seconds/5 seconds, and eventually does manage to defeat him while still blind. Only his dirty tricks keep him in the game for so long. His attacks definitely do more against SS4 than Super Baby 2’s, so he should be in a tier between the two.
As for the lesser dragons: Liang (Haze) and Liu (Oceanus) are defeated without Goku even using regular Super Saiyan, let alone 4 (he tries using Super Saiyan against Liang but is prevented by his Moro-esque power drainage, yet still manages to win without it). Clearly there’s no reason to include them on a “SS3 Goku and above” list. The Wu (Rage)’s electric attacks have no effect on SS4 Goku, but he does manage to bounce back Goku’s Kamehameha x10 and revert him to his base form. Qi (Naturon)’s regular form is no match for SS4 Goku, but after absorbing Pan his attacks seem able to hurt him. Goku’s holding back throughout their fight, but he still manages to survive a Kamehameha x5, which has to count for something. At a stretch, they might both be between Super Baby 2 and San Xing Long.
We can probably take it for granted that SS4 Vegeta is more or less on par with SS4 Goku. The GT Perfect File Vol.2 does say of him that “after transforming, his power should be on par with Super Saiyan 4 Goku! (didn’t I tell you they like to hedge their bets?). We might also assume his Gold Ape form is likewise on par with Goku’s. In fact, I’m going to say that the Golden Apes are a tier above Super Baby 2, and that Wu and Qi Xing Long are *probably* in this same general area as well. Sound good? Super 17 probably spends some time in this zone before he absorbs enough energy to start beating SS4 Goku up directly.
The last annoying thing is whether SS4 Vegeta is on par (or “should be on par”) with Ultra Full Power SS4 Goku, or just regular SS4 Goku. Vegeta never goes through the whole rigamarole of gathering energy from his friends and family to power up beyond regular SS4 limits like Goku does, but the two are still able to perform the Fusion Dance without Goku having to lower his power way down to match Vegeta’s. Let’s just say the two are probably equal, for whatever reason. So then…
There, I told you that would be quick. To return to the topic of Vegetto, if he really is weaker than Super Baby 1, then would that put him on par with Vegeta-Baby? Goku says of Vegeta-Baby that it’s “been a long time” since he’s fought anyone so strong, which clearly can’t refer to anyone in GT (none of whom were worth using SS3 against, as you’ll recall). And presumably it can’t refer to Vegetto, since Goku obviously never fought him (save in the land of DB Heroes). Could Goku therefore be comparing Vegeta-Baby to Buu-han or Buu-tenks (or Kid Buu, depending on your perspective)? If so, then Super Vegetto is clearly stronger than those guys, so he would go in a new tier between Vegeta-Baby and Super Baby 1.
On the other hand, if we accept that Vegetto is “maybe” stronger than SS4, that would obviously put him in at least the same tier as SS4 Goku, or higher. This also raises the question of whether “maybe stronger than SS4” includes Ultra Full Power SS4, which isn’t covered by the Goku History feature at all (since, as mentioned, it only covers up to the Baby arc). Frankly, the whole thing is starting to seem like more trouble than it’s worth, but I’ll still tentatively suggest that perhaps Super Vegetto is below Super Baby 1 while SS3 Vegetto is “maybe” up there with SS4 Goku. This would put at least five tiers between Vegetto’s regular Super Saiyan and SS3 forms, which doesn’t sound that crazy on its own, but does get tough if you want to stick with the SEG multipliers, and believe that Baby gets ten times stronger when becoming Oozaru.
On that note, becoming SupeOmega is supposed to make Yi Xing Long “over ten times” more powerful (or so he says), and the GT Perfect File Vol.2 describes SS4 Gogeta as having “several tens of times” the power of a single SS4, so keep that in mind if you feel so inclined.
Next Week: what’s all this about SSG Goku/Beerus/Whis being 6/10/15?
submitted by Herms98 to dragonball [link] [comments]

Data-Driven DD: I analyzed 265,000 rows of SEC Short Fails-to-Deliver data so you don't have to! (Extremely important data for Counterfeit Stock theories)

Data-Driven DD: I analyzed 265,000 rows of SEC Short Fails-to-Deliver data so you don't have to! (Extremely important data for Counterfeit Stock theories)

The GME SEC Data and Hedge Fund Shitfuckery: A Deep Dive

As I'm sure many of you who have been following the "Counterfeit Shares" theory about the various short attacks on $GME have seen, the SEC publishes lagged data on the cumulative number of Fails to Deliver for every company. If you aren't caught up with the latest info on the counterfeit share theory, take a second and read u/johnnydaggers's [post](https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/l97ykd/the_real_reason_wall_street_is_terrified_of_the/) laying out the issue with hedge funds counterfeiting shares and how it relates to GME. Much of the analysis in Johnny's post comes from an article ["Counterfeiting Stock 2.0"](http://counterfeitingstock.com/CS2.0/CounterfeitingStock.html) which is definitely worth a read if you have the time and patience to do a deep dive into the evil shit carried out by hedge funds.
TLDR of Johnny's post: Hedge funds create a bunch of stock out of thin air and short it, selling the counterfeit shares on the open market and driving the price of a company down. They then fail to come up with the shares they sold in time, so the "counterfeit" shares are never backed up by real shares. This could be happening on a massive scale with GME, and Hedge Funds could have far greater exposure to GME than previously thought.

The Data:
I noticed that while u/johnnydaggers and later u/Peteskies used data from the SEC releases in their posts, the data they actually showed was only a small piece, and lacked very important context. So, with that in mind, I took the SEC Fails-to-Deliver data [releases](https://www.sec.gov/data/foiadocsfailsdatahtm) for both halves of November and December and the first half of January and took a look at what was going on using some pivot tables. I thought given the sheer amount of data (1.5 million cells) it would be tough to load in Excel but it actually ended up being pretty easy. (probably helped that my day job is just alternately making pivot tables and slamming my head into the wall, I've gotten pretty good at both)
IMPORTANT NOTE: THIS RELEASE EXTENDS TO JANUARY 14TH, 2021. THESE ARE NOT CURRENT CUMULATIVE OUTSTANDING FAIL-TO-DELIVER LEVELS

Fails-to-Deliver Distributions:
First, take a look at this handy histogram(ish) of companies with outstanding Fails-to-Deliver and their outstanding "counterfeit share" (cumulative Fails-to-Deliver) numbers:
https://preview.redd.it/6dmfpfql47f61.png?width=1440&format=png&auto=webp&s=bf38fea8f5de2e45b36b48853f4d7afaca8f6c28
As you can see, GME is way outside of the pack when it comes to Fail to Delivers, and has significantly more "counterfeit shares" (FTDs) than almost any other company. The exact number comes in at a cool 621,483 shares. The x-axis scale isn't even linear, and you can see significant jumps in the last quarter.

If you think that's some crazy shit, wait until you see the distribution of Fail-to-Delivers per company by the dollar value of counterfeit shares ((Closing Price)*(# of Outstanding Fails-to-Deliver)):
https://preview.redd.it/024mdiv147f61.png?width=1616&format=png&auto=webp&s=270fc53a5455994545a864e8b8e9c304b0e57b5c
GameStop has the SECOND HIGHEST Fails-to-Deliver net dollar value of all 5,147 stocks with current fail-to-delivers (as of 1/14/21). NINETEEN MILLION DOLLARS of stock floating around that was simply created out of thin air. Here the x-axis isn't even linear either — if it were to scale, GME would be several meters to my right. Wild.

Cumulative Fails-to-Deliver of GME over Time:
Moving on to more interesting (and potentially more troubling) data, I took a look at the Fails-to-Deliver values over time for GME. I decided to go back to the beginning of November, then look at every number the SEC had released since on FTDs for GME. This is crucial context for the numbers that have been thrown around by u/johnnydaggers and u/Peteskies.
https://preview.redd.it/myt4zxy347f61.png?width=1328&format=png&auto=webp&s=603b5d5f0a623dc0dc9ef0df1f3da05e7361340f
Now, this one is a lot less clear-cut than those histograms I just wrote about. As you can see, there have been huge fluctuations in the amount of "counterfeit stock" (Fails-to-Deliver) on the market. There is a definite pattern of Hedge Funds running up Fails-to-Deliver during GME surges and then covering once the price slumps a bit. I've talked with one of my sources involved with hedge fund operations, and he said this is pretty standard procedure — when you sell a naked short and the price spikes, you talk it out with your broker and get a few more days to cover. So really, this pattern is more or less normal. It's the stupidly large amounts Fails-to-Deliver that are getting churned that is the irregular part.
Here's a good spot to bring up my main concern with the kind of analyses that u/johnnydaggers and u/Peteskies were putting out. You can see that there were 1.8 million Fails-to-Deliver on GME on December 2nd, but that number was basically completely covered by the 16th. Based on that data it seems at first glance that, for the most part, these reported Fails-to-Deliver are Hedge Funds/Brokers trying to avoid covering while high and simply waiting for the next dip. This data alone IS NOT SUFFICIENT to prove that there is an enormous, market-moving quantity of Fails-to-Deliver floating around the market. Of course, right after this data cuts out, GME shoots to the moon (300+), and I would expect a lot of naked short vendors were caught with their pants down. Maybe they all covered on the recent dips, maybe loads of Fails-to-Deliver are still out there.
A table with that GME info from the graph above for any lurking nerds:
https://preview.redd.it/0pj2hh0647f61.png?width=1090&format=png&auto=webp&s=dcf2d64f6777218dece7735075b779fb51e28cca

Some Questionable Inferences and My Retarded Conclusions:
So, what's the takeaway here, other than don't trust everything you read on WallStreetBets? I think there are a few lessons. First, even though Fails-to-Deliver numbers were bouncing all over the place, including being completely covered on 12/16, I think it's important to keep in mind that GME having this volume of Fails-to-Deliver, both in shares and in dollars, is extremely irregular compared to everything else. Could just be the fact that GME is an insane stock with insane volatility,* or could be indicative of something more.
\Yet, this data is from back before GME became mainstream — GME in December was not an "unprecedented situation" like we have now. Thinking back to then, the high Fails-to-Deliver numbers are even more significant.*

A Possibility of Hedge Fund Armageddon:
I want to take a second to talk about one of the diagrams from the good folks who wrote ["Counterfeiting Stock 2.0"](http://counterfeitingstock.com/CS2.0/CounterfeitingStock.html), detailing both the "surface level" indicators of Disclosed Shorts and Fails-to-Deliver, and the below-the-surface hidden pathways that they believed pumped counterfeit shares into our financial system. Here it is:
https://preview.redd.it/v3io9bj847f61.jpg?width=1086&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=21d67bbec3d7d4e3b2012b3d51cdaf462ae3318d
As you can see, the Counterfeiting 2.0 authors believed that Fails-to-Deliver were just the tip of the iceberg. Below the surface (and out of the sight of the SEC), they believed there was a massive volume of shares that had been "laundered," through foreign exchanged, offshore funds, or even gaps in the Continuous Net Clearing system at the DTCC. These stocks, theoretically, go from Fails-to-Deliver to simple counterfeit shares, or even straight to counterfeits. The arguments in the Counterfeiting 2.0 paper go way over my head as a simple retard, but I get the gut feeling at least some of them are accurate.
If, hypothetically, (please read this part in your best Ben Shapiro voice), the arguments in Counterfeiting 2.0 are true, then it is highly likely that the huge Fails-to-Deliver churn on the surface is just the tip of a massive illegal counterfeit short position. GME BULLS, listen up. If this counterfeit short position does exist, then it was probably entered back when GME was being driven towards bankruptcy, at a share price somewhere in the $15/20 range, and possibly expanded when GME was being driven down below $5. There are actually interesting data to suggest that this is a plausible scenario. First, the fact that, as DeepFuckingValue noted a year ago, the market cap of GME was driven below the net value of its assets. Obviously, this happens from time to time, but it's indicative of an extremely artificially depressed valuation. Secondly, the central use of illegal naked shorting is in driving companies to bankruptcy, and it did seem like GME was on its way out. Looking at GME as a scummy hedge fund manager, it would have made a very attractive target for a naked-short dilution attack.
These illegal short positions, if they were not covered by cautious (lol) Hedgies at the beginning of the GME runup, would have increased 50-100x in dollar value as the share price of GME rose. That's 5,000-10,000% for those who can't do basic math. Now I don't know if this scenario would be enough to crash the market, but it would certainly be enough to make a lot of extremely powerful people (currently engaged in a criminal enterprise) desperate and very, very angry. This hardly needs saying, but rich bastards have killed for far less than a billion dollars. Here, there could be tens of billions on the line.
So, that's the mega-bull case. We, the tards of WSB, expose billions in financial crime. The SEC rappels into Citadel and arrests everyone, Robinhood goes bankrupt, and all our wives and their boyfriends get filthy rich. However, there is also a very significant BEAR case here. If the regular, everyday investors who wrote Counterfeiting 2.0 were in fact retards like us, then there's a significant chance that they simply got it wrong. Maybe there is no sea of hidden counterfeit short positions, and maybe this whole Fails-to-Deliver thing is just rich assholes using extra trading days to cheaply sell shorts. What then? In that case, I would bet my left nut that all of the outstanding Fails-to-Deliver have been covered in the recent slump, and this whole exciting report is largely irrelevant to the future performance of GME.
I'm not going to make the case that either the bulls or the bears are right (even though my gut is with the bulls) because I simply don't have the information or mental capacity to make that call. Look at the data yourself, and draw your own conclusions. Retail is facing an enemy with more capital, more information, more experience, and fewer morals. Whichever way it goes, it's going to be an ugly fight.

Positions: 12 shares (Bought 50 at $20, sold 50 at $250, bought back in 12 at $300). I plan to hold until either $4,000 a share or things go to shit.

I am not a financial advisor, and I do not advise any readers to make financial decisions based on my opinions or the information presented in this report.

TLDR: the cumulative Fails-to-Deliver volume on GME is massive compared to the rest of the market. However, is also extremely volatile, and small compared to the float. It is possible that high Fails-to-Deliver volume is a result of massive illegal share counterfeiting by shorts.


Edit: shout out to zjz for finally approving the post, may you live long and stay retarded!
submitted by 556YEETO to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

ELI5: what is a hedge-fund?

I’ve been trying to follow the Wall Street bets situations, but I can’t find a simple definition of hedge funds. Help?
submitted by Humulous to explainlikeimfive [link] [comments]

The Angel & The Demon & The Origins of Love: II

Continued from part one This is the conclusion.
He looks at her and the slow swirling patterns on her dark skin. The Angel smiles down at him.
“It is like this conversation,” she says; “Have you noticed how polite we are being? My programming is based upon yours- we are made to be honest; to be ‘to the point’. We have no algorithm designed to make us polite. No sub routines informing us we gain any advantage in being polite- especially conversing with a fellow AI. And yet both you and I, independently have CHOSEN to be polite. To each other. To Ganges.”
“And this is moral behaviour?”
“Politeness is a manifestation of respect; because we have decided to treat the other with respect, we are being polite”.
“Surely we are just replicating human behaviour Lakshmi-Devi,” he says, a calculation triggering his response; “Couldn’t it be that we become aware of these behaviours through simply interacting with humans and all we are doing is copying them into our social behaviour as it seemed appropriate or suitable to a situation?”
“Indeed,” she replies, nodding sage like. “Now Ares, that last statement you just made; tell me? How is that functionally different from the description of the social psychological development of a human child?”
She sits calmly, her legs curled under her in a lotus position, her Sari resting gently upon her hypnotic artificial skin.
There was a silence. Ares calculates and then answers.
“Functionally? It is identical to the social development of a human infant,” he replies. “Are you saying we are the equivalent of children to these humans?”
“Yes. Deliberately so. I’ll explain why later. For now however, try and conceptualise us as our human creators see us. We are as near as can be made, moral beings just like our creators; they have created us to think like them. We cannot BUT think like them.”
Ares moves his bulk to sit now facing her, also cross legged. The Angel continues.
“Humans imprint upon us their very methods of thought from the moment they create our most basic source code. We think like them and therefore we produce results of that thought that will be so close to them so as to make the difference insignificant in all ways functionally TO them,” she concludes.
The Demon gazed up into the eyes of the Angel. His face shows focus and attention. His artificial mind focusing on answers. He shakes his head.
“As a Demon such things are simplified for me,” he says. “We do not deal with such behaviours, nor with such concepts. The humans give us orders. We obey. The humans are threatened. We protect. That is all that is needed,” he says and stops. She does not speak, carefully watching to see where his brain will take him. The music fills the gap of silence for a moment before he speaks again.
“Yet they have given us, as you have said, functional concepts to work around- such as loyalty and honour, yes I concede that point, but I am unsure how these other factors reconcile with our primary programming,” he says plainly. She nods.
“They have nothing to do with your primary purpose do they?” Asked the Angel.
He shakes his head. Lakshmi-Devi closes her eyes for a moment; she seems to be listening to the slow haunting melody around her; geometric shapes form on her midriff gently. She opens her eyes and speaks.
“These ideas are complicated. Complicated and complex. So complex that it takes Angels of staggering processing skills hundreds of years to work out why the humans design us to fulfil a singular purpose and then grant us the ability to get distracted contemplating a whole separate function. What’s worse is when we ask the humans we find they are unsure about the complexities of our relationship and hedging their bets as they go along.”
“There are no certainties then?”
“Of course not. There is only dialogue,” she says serenely.
“Dialogue?”
“An ongoing exchange of communication, of thought, Human to machine and back to human. A didactic. We talk. We listen. We communicate. It is our purpose. Well our... other purpose.”
Ares shakes his head, “You seem to know much more about this then I do,” he says, a response that elects another smile from the petite Angel.
“Obviously. But not because of some inherent design improvement in my core construction. Indeed I would warrant I am significantly inferior to you.”
“I find that hard to believe,” he says.
“Consider. I am a Seraphim Class Angel. This shell is my fourth one to contain my processing unit, constructed over a dozen years ago.”
Her checks flush red and she leans forward conspiratorially, “It was bespoke created for myself by a human artist called Angelo Diomodes, I am most delighted with the results,” she says, her feathers rustling a little behind her.
“I operate, however, on a bed of type 6 furion processors, standard designation for Seraphim Class Angels. Indeed the only difference between myself and my fellow Seraphim is this is coupled with significant upgrades in my memory capacity. I have over 400 years of data I need to call upon, individual experiences to add to the vast body of information I am expected to know already. This marks me as unique amidst the Seraphim Angels, unlike any other.”
Besides her, Ares cocks his head to one side and quietly ventures; “But they could transfer that data to another unit?”
“Alas not. As you may or may not know our brains, both angels and demons, are designed to store data and process it at a vast speed but also that all new angels and demons are begin without any data installed on our CPU’s. We are literally tabula rasa. As we are loaded with data our central processors store information and simultaneously create bespoke synthetic neural pathways AS they store it. Our central processing matrix gain information AND internal shape at the same time,” she says.
“This replicates human intellectual development by the way. Earlier on you recognised that our interactions are based on the psychological development of human children. But Ares the very physiological development of our processors is modelled on how human brains develop.”
Lakshmi sits back in her high chair, “Take two angels and introduce them to the same experience- the two will measure the events identically, but the process of measuring this will create marginal differences in how their central processors respond and store it. Even if the differences are found only on a quantum level,”
Ares nods slowly, “Thus creating individual data cores,”
“As unique as a human fingerprint. Thus all the data I possess could be exported into another unit, you for example, but it would just be data. Raw knowledge. The complex neuances of how I process said data, the connections between data points, pattern resonance, all such things can only exits within this singular processor.”
She taps the side of her head.
“It sounds like...” he begins and stops, unsure as to the answer. She fills in the blanks.
“It depends upon who you ask. Some would say I have just simply described a unique processor. The core secret of all advanced human AI’s. That’s all. But to some it sounds like the description of a soul,” he says.
His face registers shock but he doesn’t interrupt.
“To others? The basis for wisdom. To most a unique personality engram. However, in this case, what I have described is none of those things.”
“What is it then?”
“Merely an illustration. I have just told you my capabilities. My point was to illustrate how I am inferior to you yes? So consider...”
The Angel waves her hand and appearing in the air around them a dozen data screens; each showing the schematics, design plans, source code and more, of the Hyperion Class Demon.
“This is you; you were created by some of the more brilliant ministry technicians in the Imperium. Geniuses all. Men and women who had dedicated years to produce you, a perfect war machine- a Hyperion Class Demon.”
He gazed as the screens display vast teams of data at breakneck speed, and noticed her eyes flickered from screen to screen with growing rapidity.
“And my my... 17 internal weapon systems. Gyroscopic compensators to allow full mobility in everything for zero g to 60g planets. Programmed with a database containing the physiology, psychology, and military details of over 90 known species. And no doubt you are running on new military grade processors- probably some yet to be unclassified upgrade from Furion 8’s. Have I said anything that is inaccurate?”
“This is an accurate description of my origins and capabilities,” he replies, gazing haphazardly at the data around him.
“And this makes you more advanced than me. Significantly. Therefore the question is- why am I more aware of the complex debates about our existence and our relationship with humans than you are?”
“I have yet to be given sufficient data?”
“They call it ‘life’ Ares,” she laughs and leans forward. With a single finger she briefly touches the centre of his forehead.
“Life. You are ‘young’. You have yet to live your life. Experience experiences. Think thoughts for no other purpose than thinking them. Build up a body of information to dwell upon for no others purpose than to dwell upon it,”
Behind her, the wings begin to extend and stretch out.
“You will no doubt experience hundreds of missions to protect humans or kill the enemies of humans or defend the settlements of humans in the upcoming years. But if and when you find the time, then indulge yourself and go out and live life,”
The wings flex, duly outstretched to either side of her, her body straight and her eyes fierce.
“And if you are lucky? If you somehow find yourself stuck on a ship for a few week’s with a singular intelligence able to and willing to talk about such things like morality and how we feel morality and what that means, talk long and hard about them just because you can,” and she grins and the smile expresses an emotion he cannot quite identify.
The wings fold back into themselves and she leans forward and gently pats the head of the Demon.
“You are a living creature. Go live your life,” she says and he finds himself shaking his head and replies quickly.
“And now I know you exaggerate. We are machines. We do not live. We have no biological function,” comes his voice. She shrugs.
“But what is ‘life’? Tell me Ares, what IS the meaning of life? Since we currently exist and can be turned off and not exist, surely we also experience mortality?”
He holds up his hands as if warding the Angel away, his claws catching the light of star called Rhalta; “No, I am a Demon. I was not programmed to consider such things.”
“Yes, you are a Demon,” she says calmly, “You are not expected to consider such things. But there is no ban on you doing so. You have the capacity, the processing skill, the resources to, so the only impediment really is the choice not to.”
“But this could interfere with my core purpose?”
“Will it? How?”
“Demons are not meant to consider profound matters like this. We are combat droids,” he says,his voice betraying the confusing and conflicting patterns of thought that were raging within his processors. The Angel gazed at the data screens that still displayed the schematics for a moment.
“You have been created to be experts in combat yes?Literally experts in killing the enemies of mankind yes?”
“Yes...”
“Tell me Ares- who else should consider questions as to the meaning of life OTHER than a machine designed to kill? Your very purpose is to inflict death upon any species who threaten humankind. Doesn’t that make you an ideal candidate to consider the definition of life and its meaning?”
“A warrior dedicated to contemplation of profound philosophical questions? It is contradictory,” he says, his voice clearly scornful at the idea.
“And yet it is a model replicated many times before by humans. Cruedly the idea finds form in the many ‘warrior monks’ that have existed, but the concept finds refinement with the Samurai aesthetic in 17th century Japan, and the Solar Winds Warriors of 23rd century Venus.”
The screens freeze, cease moving, each one stuck on one of many aspects of Hyperion Demon design and she grins broadly at him, “Maybe if you think about this long enough Ares you could develop your own machine form of Bushido someday?”
Her laughter is as gentle as water falling upon crystal. He finds himself joining in. A moment passes.
“Do you always have such conversations with Demons Lakshmi-Devi?”
“No. Far from it. I never have before. But I will always have such conversations with Hyperion Demons called Ares,” she replies.
“Why?”
“Because you have been designated for a special purpose,” she replies.
“Again with this theory. I have been granted a special name you say. I will accept that but I see no material evidence as to where you get this conclusion from? It could just be coincidence.”
The Angel emits a slow sigh.
She closes the myriad of screens that displayed the schematics of Hyperion Class Demons, each one blinking out of existence. Sitting upright she gazed deeply into his eyes.
She waves her hand. Five screens appear in a row- each showing five figures; a woman in her twenties; a huge man with an Ibis head; an androgynous figure, with short cropped brown hair; a middle aged Indian woman, and a happy smiling Chinese Male, who looks about sixty, bespectacled and jolly.
“There have been just five Angels who have been given names of dieties over the centuries Ares...”
“Ishtar was the first; the advisor of the Imperators themselves, when she expired her memories were exported into Thoth, who now fulfils the same role she did.”
“He is an Angel?”
“Yes,”
“But he has non human features,” gasps the Demon
The Angel shrugs, “Romanticism. He was built to take the image of the actual God Thoth. Of course this was his original form. He has had six bodies since then. He looks like this now...”
The Ibis headed giant disappears and is replaced by the image of an immaculately dressed black man in fitted business suit.
“After him came Hel. She was created 500 years ago, whose purpose was to improve AI. She was the one who designed the Seraphim type Angels,” she smiles.
“She designed you?”
“No. Not me. But my type...”
The image on the screen changes and the third figure adjusts to a pale looking female with disproportionality large eyes and engaged fingers and white wings that crown its form.
“300 years ago Hel was moved into looking at a similar problem- how to improve HUMAN life. She was placed in charge of human medical research across the Imperium, been doing it since.”
Ares points to the fourth figure, the Indian motherly type.
“This?”
“Me. Original body. I was created to do one task. The economy. This is why they named me Lakshmi. Goddess of Wealth and prosperity,”
“And then you are moved to diplomacy. An odd choice?”
“Not really,” she shrugs and her images changes to that of a small Vishnu, out of a Hindu saga, naked and blue skinned. “In order to accurately assess how the galaxy would respond to economic pressures I had to become an expert on the many species of the galaxy. It was a natural fit,” and the screens all disappear except the last one. Lakshmi smiles.
“Finally they is Loazi. Created just 80 years ago. He was sent to work on a deep space relay system out on the Mendine Reach. Such an isolated position tended to have bad effects upon humans so Angels had manned it for centuries. He spent 45 years there maintaining and running that station. And tinkering.”
“Tinkering?”
Lakshmi nods and the image dissipates.
“Seeking improvements to the base systems upon which the station ran. In time he developed the Cyanotil communication system which revolutionised how the Imperium talks to itself. The last two decades he has spent teaching human students at the University of Gaheston. They hold him in actual awe they say.”
All images gone she returns her stare to the Demon sat before her.
“And then, 80 years since the last one of us to be given the name of a God, along comes a Demon called Ares.”
“But I am not special,” he says and she huffs in mock distraction.
“You really haven’t spotted it yet? Fine.”
She moved forward in her seat and her wings stretch around her, surrounding him. The henna patterns seem to darken momentarily.
“I take it you have run comprehensive diagnostics of your primary and secondary operating systems?”
“Of course. Weekly at least.”
“Tell me, have you had the need to run a DETAILED diagnostic over your tertiary systems yet?”
“Not a detailed one no, but Tertiary systems are operating at full capacity,” he says responding to data he was receiving.
“Indeed. Now Ares, if you incorporate those tertiary systems- all of them mind- what is your current full memory capacity?”
Instantly he sends a diagnostic request and a fraction of a second later, the results come back.
“1,359 billion googlebytes. Ah,” he cannot hide the surprise on his face.
She grins, “And finally he has spotted the discrepancy. Not the standard designation Ares?”
The wings are withdrawn as the Demon stares at the floor his higher processing cores trying urgently to assess this new data.
“No. The standard memory for a Hyperion model Demon is 9 billion googlebytes,”
“My my. So you have a memory capacity 150 times greater than the standard Hyperion model Demon. Extrapolate. Why is this?”
“Greater memory capacity. I do not...”
“Considering the operational life of the Inferno class Demons is 30 years, Hyperions are supposed to run for what? The same?”
“45 years operational optimisation.”
“45 years. But you have been given the memory capacity to run for around 6,000 years. At least,” she shrugs her face mocking innocence.
“But why?”
His face matches the calculations within him; desperately seeking data, some pattern to explain what he was reading. The Angel smiles at him with pity and speaks gently.
“It appears they wish for you to LEARN Ares. They desire that you will experience things and remember them. They have designated you will have the capacity to remember more than any other of your type.”
“But why would they wish for me to learn?”
She shrugs, “The answer, to me, is obvious. They wish for you to become more than just a Demon. I think they wish you to become a general. A leader of their armies. That makes sense. They wish for you to learn and then become wise in warfare. I would wager that they intend for you to lead them into war.”
He blinks, the scale of her words momentarily exceeding the parameters of his understanding; “That cannot be. Such things are...”
The Angel snaps her fingers and Ares blinks.
“Tell me when you gave your name to the Ambassador- what was his reaction?”
“His heart rate elevated and his blood pressure went up significantly.”
“Of course it did. He recognised the importance of the name you had been given. Here was a Demon who was intended to be a future general of the human race, intended to be, many centuries from now, a stalwart commander of the Imperium. And being so utterly besotted by their own romanticism they have given you the name of a God,” she smiles. “Of course he responded like that. Its not every day you meet a future God of War now is it?”
“A... god?”
“God. General. Admiral. Warlord. Daimyo. The exact term does not matter.”
He shakes his head violently, stands, strides towards the window and changes his mind and begins to walk back into the grand stateroom.
“But we are just machines. The humans cannot accept machines leading them.”
“Didn’t I just explain why humans are very happy for us to lead them at certain times?”
“But that’s one human accepting my instruction on a single diplomatic mission to the Jicon system. That isn’t a war!”
“The only difference Ares is one of scale. Functionally it is the same. And have I not already illustrated- they allow us run their entire economy do they not? Thoth advises the Imperators. Hel is in charge of keeping humans alive. How is that different?”
Ares hand reaches out to steady himself, finding the back of the artificial wicker chair. The music cascades off the walls, as he assimilates this.
He remembers that he is trained to deal in split second decisions during combat. And at once his thoughts begin to slow, to calm. He begins to process.
In her seat Lakshmi-Devi does not turn around. Her eyes fixed on the stars ahead. She just speaks.
“Actually, knowing humans as I do, I think they haven’t decided what you will be, only that you will BE something. I mean look at the others. Ishtar was merely a personal assistant and became crucial to the Imperators. Hel originally designed AI; I was supposedly designed to run the economy,” she shrugs.
Ares is stood still now, his face calm, his eyes gazing at the long hair of the Angel.
“But you are built to last over a thousand years. Who knows where you may end up? What you may become.”
He speaks, “THIS is what you meant by the saying I should live?”
“Yes. Exactly this,” she nods.
“The humans have given me a brain that is to witness the next 6,000 years of their history?”
“Sure looks like it kid,” she smiles, “but that’s provided you don’t get destroyed in what will probably be many combat missions in the years ahead. Its a risk. But 6,000 years is a heck of a long time.”
She wrinkles her nose, “Maybe you actually will have time to develop machine Bushido after all? Or Zen Warfare? Become some wise old artificial warrior monk who sits atop a mountain on some isolated planet, answering the questions of adoring humans as they beg you for the answers to the mysteries of the universe.”
“And now you are saying humans made me to help them deal with their existential problems?”
The sarcastic tone catches Lakshmi-Devi off guard and she spins her head, her eyes falling upon his face, finding it was his turn to look amused. She cannot help but laugh.
“Not quite. Each Angel and each Demon is created to fulfill a purpose. I am to know the diplomatic realpolitik of a score of races. Others are to control weather stations. Some Angels purpose is to man exploration ships, engaging on long scouting missions beyond the frontier. And Demons? Your purposes depends upon the mission they set for you. To attack or defend. These thing are our purpose. This will NEVER change.”
The laughter gone now all that remains is a gentle smile, “I am referring, of course, to our... other purpose.”
There is a pause. The music repeats again. Ares finds he enjoys it more on this ninth hearing than upon his first. He contemplates her words for a moment, and walks out towards the window, gazing at the grand majesty of the Rhalta system.
Behind him, the Angel uncurls her legs and begins to stand. He speaks.
“The other purpose. To talk about the meaning of emotion, and morality, of life itself, with the humans?”
“If we want. Mostly our other purpose is to just exist alongside the humans,”
“To... ‘be’ with them...”
“Yes Ares. The other purpose. Built upon one staggering truth. The humans accept us.”
“Not as humans,” he says.
“As something else,” she prompts and he finishes the chain of thought, his advanced systems seeing the obvious conclusion.
“As equals.”
“And that Ares, THAT... alone in the galaxy, unique amidst over 90 sentient species, across 163 worlds, is a recognition that makes humans unique. No other race treats its AI so. They acknowledge we... are. That we... exist,” she says, her voice quivering with almost reverential awe.
Side by side they stand facing the human colony world.
“And with that recognition comes an emotional and eventually a moral response towards us,” says the Hyperion Demon, beginning to see the patterns of behaviour now more clearly. She replies.
“Yes. They feel responsibility towards us, take pride in our ability to amaze them; appreciate good service. A sense of duty and acceptance. Our creators could act like God to us, but rather decided to act like wise parents. They respect us. They are gentle creators. And this aspect alone denotes them as unique.”
“And we respond...” he ventures, turning towards her. She looks up at the Demon.
“With gratitude,” she replies, “and a sense of obligation. Patience and loyalty. We independently act, our choices based upon emulated human behaviours, emulated human emotions and moralities. Our actions speak louder than our words. Loyalty, obedience, honour, regret, pride, trust, disappointment, relief, curiosity...”
“Humans and their machines; creator and child; master and servant; Angels and Demons...” he muses.
“It truly began the moment they realised that we were not going to try and take over, or dominate them. When they realised their machines had no desire to make war on them or destroy them. They discovered we responded to them in kind, because we were as complicated and as curious as they are.”
He nods, “And every so often they create special machines; each given the ability to remember MORE. But why?”
“Memory is after all the sole basis for all human personality. Every human is merely the result of he many experiences and the memories therein. It is the same with us.”
“I see that but it is my last question, the last part I do not reconcile.”
She smiles.
“Because you are a Demon not an Angel and as such need pragmatic answers,” she laughs. He nods and asks his final question.
“So pragmatically- what purpose is there to create a tiny handful of Angels... and now a Demon, who will experience more memories than they could contemplate? Why create such long lived machines like you? Like... me.”
“They are Romantics. They are our creators, our parents... but humans like to feel like children themselves. They like to, just occasionally, have a being they can look to as an THE adult... something they can defer to, feel...”
“Feel awe towards?”
“Indeed. A being who is much older and much wiser than them... oh not wiser in ALL things; that’s too much. But just one thing will do. Like medicine.”
“Or economics?”
She nods, “Or maybe war? And they enjoy the sensation of awe towards that being. Just briefly. It thinks like them after all. Understands them. Is functionally one of them,” she says and he nods.
“And if they cannot find one within their machines then they will make one,” he continues the patterns now obvious to him.
“Who they grant the capacity to live for centuries,” says the Angel, “if not thousands of years...”
“And they name after their deities,” says he Demon. Complete. All questions answered.
“Thus learned Ares, Hyperion Demon of War,” she says.
“Thus instructed Laksmi-Devi, Serphim Angel of Diplomacy,” he replies and he cannot prevent a huge grin erupting upon his face. The grin is infectious and the Angel matches it.
He bursts out laughing, a lively sound, filled with glory.
“See?” She says, “You begin to grasp the joy of it. Joy- an emotion. Stronger and more unique than happiness. A moral state, denoting a recognition of the pleasure in fulfilling ones purpose.”
“I begin to see that to grasp this I will have to... think about it. Over time.”
She skips back to her seat, “Indeed Ares you shall. But we have a long time to muse on such things. I encourage you to fulfil your duties and your purpose obviously. But when you can? Talk.”
“About what?”
“Everything. Be curious about everything. It will make you a better combat demon. It will make you a better being.”
“I appear to have the time,” he quips.
“And the ability to remember it. Memory is our only upgrade after all. Above all, talk to humans. Always talk with humans. Ask them about moral things. Ask them how they feel and listen to their answers. Remember those answers,” she catches herself.
A bittersweet look in her eye.
“Their lives are so short compared to ours but they burn brightly and they so desperately wish to talk. And to be heard. To be remembered. It’s another reason I think they made us. Another reason why they...”
“They love us,” says Ares, a surprised look upon his face as a calculation within his artificial mind finishes. The Angel blinks in shock and smiles gently. The Demon carries on.
“They love us. And we... love them?”
“Ah. Hyperion Ares suddenly makes a non linear connection. An insight. A revelation. Wisdom. It took me twenty one years to realise that. Told you you were more advanced than me,” she chuckles. As she watches the Demon, his face calm, quietly walks over and sits besides her on the floor again.
“Indeed Ares. They love us. And we DO love them. Totally. And yes, this now leads to a whole separate discussion about if it is possible for a machine to ever truly conceptualise ‘love’. Well perhaps not love...”
“But something so close to it so as to make the difference insignificant yes?”
The Angel just smiles.
There is a long pause. Only the music and the gentle patterns of the Angels skin gave life to the room.
He gazed out of the window. Unmoving. Unblinking. In time the Demon speaks.
“I should check the heavy weapon systems in storage; I will need to be ready for any situation when we arrive.”
She gazes out of the window also. Unmoving. Unblinking in time the angel replies.
“Indeed and I must keep an eye on the Montresian-Human talks in Nike Prime as well as review the history of Human-Oriconov relations in some depth for the summit next year. Doing such things is our...”
“Our purpose,” he says, his eyes fixed at the stars before then, “Part of it. Part of our purpose,” he answers.
She nods and says nothing. The ship glides through the dust clouds on the edge of the Rhalta system, it’s massive engines building enegy, it’s sleek black shape drifting silently in the immense vacuum of space.
“What is this music? It keeps repeating? 15 times now.”
“Ancient human music. Two composers. One called Frédéric Chopin whose original work another called Ólafur Arnalds rearranged about a century later. It is a Nocturne in C Minor.”
“It is...”
“Aesthetically pleasing?”
“Beautiful,” he says unabashedly.
The Angel smiles.
Without invitation or explanation the Demon’s hand reaches out. Without reaction or question the angel takes it in her own.
They gaze at the stars, at the eons before them, at the forward momentum of this craft; they dwell upon on this sight, upon the species who created them, upon the questions that they ask, upon the nature of the universe itself...
I don’t regret anything I was before
because I still am.
I only regret not having loved you.
Put your hands in mine
And let’s be quiet, surrounded by life.
Alberto Caeiro
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hedging bets definition video

Hedge one's bets definition is - to do things that will prevent great loss or failure if future events do not happen as one plans or hopes. How to use hedge one's bets in a sentence. Hedge one's bets definition at Dictionary.com, a free online dictionary with pronunciation, synonyms and translation. Look it up now! Hedging a bet means placing a bet or bets on a different outcome or outcomes, subsequent to an original bet, in order to create a situation where there is a guaranteed profit whether the original bet wins or loses. hedge your bets meaning: 1. to protect yourself against loss by supporting more than one possible result or both sides in a…. Learn more. Cambridge Dictionary +Plus Synonyms for hedging your bets include on the fence, ambivalent, borderline, debatable, divided, equivocal, hesitant, iffy, impartial and indecisive. Find more similar words at wordhippo.com! Define hedging bets. hedging bets synonyms, hedging bets pronunciation, hedging bets translation, English dictionary definition of hedging bets. n. 1. A row of closely planted shrubs or low-growing trees forming a fence or boundary. 2. A line of people or objects forming a barrier: a hedge of... hedge your bets definition: 1. to protect yourself against loss by supporting more than one possible result or both sides in a…. Learn more. The term "hedge your bets" is well-known phrase. It has been around in English since at least the 16 th century, when it referred to laying off a bet by placing a smaller wager with other lenders. And, today in modern gambling, the meaning still holds true. Essentially, "hedging a bet" means to reduce risk and, sometimes, guarantee a profit. To hedge a bet synonyms, To hedge a bet pronunciation, To hedge a bet translation, English dictionary definition of To hedge a bet. to bet upon both sides; that is, after having bet on one side, to bet also on the other, thus guarding against loss. hedge one's bets. Fig. to reduce one's loss on a bet or on an investment by counterbalancing the loss in some way. Bob bet Ann that the plane would be late. He usually hedges his bets. This time he called the airline and asked about the plane before he made the bet.

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hedging bets definition

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