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Playboy going public: Porn, Gambling, and Cannabis

NEW INFO 5 Results from share redemption are posted. Less than .2% redeemed. Very bullish as investors are showing extreme confidence in the future of PLBY.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/playboy-mountain-crest-acquisition-corp-120000721.html
NEW INFO 4 Definitive Agreement to purchase 100% of Lovers brand stores announced 2/1.
https://www.streetinsider.com/Corporate+News/Playboy+%28MCAC%29+Confirms+Deal+to+Acquire+Lovers/17892359.html
NEW INFO 3 I bought more on the dip today. 5081 total. Price rose AH to $12.38 (2.15%)
NEW INFO 2 Here is the full webinar.
https://icrinc.zoom.us/rec/play/9GWKdmOYumjWfZuufW3QXpe_FW_g--qeNbg6PnTjTMbnNTgLmCbWjeRFpQga1iPc-elpGap8dnDv8Zww.yD7DjUwuPmapeEdP?continueMode=true&tk=lEYc4F_FkKlgsmCIs6w0gtGHT2kbgVGbUju3cIRBSjk.DQIAAAAV8NK49xZWdldRM2xNSFNQcTBmcE00UzM3bXh3AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA&uuid=WN_GKWqbHkeSyuWetJmLFkj4g&_x_zm_rtaid=kR45-uuqRE-L65AxLjpbQw.1611967079119.2c054e3d3f8d8e63339273d9175939ed&_x_zm_rhtaid=866
NEW INFO 1 Live merger webinar with PLBY and MCAC on Friday January 29, 2021 at 12:00 NOON EST link below
https://mcacquisition.com/investor-relations/press-release-details/2021/Playboy-Enterprises-Inc.-and-Mountain-Crest-Acquisition-Corp-Participate-in-SPACInsider-ICR-Webinar-on-January-29th-at-12pm-ET/default.aspx
Playboy going public: Porn, Gambling, and Cannabis
!!!WARNING READING AHEAD!!! TL;DR at the end. It will take some time to sort through all the links and read/watch everything, but you should.
In the next couple weeks, Mountain Crest Acquisition Corp is taking Playboy public. The existing ticker MCAC will become PLBY. Special purpose acquisition companies have taken private companies public in recent months with great success. I believe this will be no exception. Notably, Playboy is profitable and has skyrocketing revenue going into a transformational growth phase.
Porn - First and foremost, let's talk about porn. I know what you guys are thinking. “Porno mags are dead. Why would I want to invest in something like that? I can get porn for free online.” Guess what? You are absolutely right. And that’s exactly why Playboy doesn’t do that anymore. That’s right, they eliminated their print division. And yet they somehow STILL make money from porn that people (see: boomers) pay for on their website through PlayboyTV, Playboy Plus, and iPlayboy. Here’s the thing: Playboy has international, multi-generational name recognition from porn. They have content available in 180 countries. It will be the only publicly traded adult entertainment (porn) company. But that is not where this company is going. It will help support them along the way. You can see every Playboy magazine through iPlayboy if you’re interested. NSFW links below:
https://www.playboy.com/
https://www.playboytv.com/
https://www.playboyplus.com/
https://www.iplayboy.com/
Gambling - Some of you might recognize the Playboy brand from gambling trips to places like Las Vegas, Atlantic City, Cancun, London or Macau. They’ve been in the gambling biz for decades through their casinos, clubs, and licensed gaming products. They see the writing on the wall. COVID is accelerating the transition to digital, application based GAMBLING. That’s right. What we are doing on Robinhood with risky options is gambling, and the only reason regulators might give a shit anymore is because we are making too much money. There may be some restrictions put in place, but gambling from your phone on your couch is not going anywhere. More and more states are allowing things like Draftkings, poker, state ‘lottery” apps, hell - even political betting. Michigan and Virginia just ok’d gambling apps. They won’t be the last. This is all from your couch and any 18 year old with a cracked iphone can access it. Wouldn’t it be cool if Playboy was going to do something like that? They’re already working on it. As per CEO Ben Kohn who we will get to later, “...the company’s casino-style digital gaming products with Scientific Games and Microgaming continue to see significant global growth.” Honestly, I stopped researching Scientific Games' sports betting segment when I saw the word ‘omni-channel’. That told me all I needed to know about it’s success.
“Our SG Sports™ platform is an enhanced, omni-channel solution for online, self-service and retail fixed odds sports betting – from soccer to tennis, basketball, football, baseball, hockey, motor sports, racing and more.”
https://www.scientificgames.com/
https://www.microgaming.co.uk/
“This latter segment has become increasingly enticing for Playboy, and it said last week that it is considering new tie-ups that could include gaming operators like PointsBet and 888Holdings.”
https://calvinayre.com/2020/10/05/business/playboys-gaming-ops-could-get-a-boost-from-spac-purchase/
As per their SEC filing:
“Significant consumer engagement and spend with Playboy-branded gaming properties around the world, including with leading partners such as Microgaming, Scientific Games, and Caesar’s Entertainment, steers our investment in digital gaming, sports betting and other digital offerings to further support our commercial strategy to expand consumer spend with minimal marginal cost, and gain consumer data to inform go-to-market plans across categories.”
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921005986/tm2034213-12_defm14a.htm#tMDAA1
They are expanding into more areas of gaming/gambling, working with international players in the digital gaming/gambling arena, and a Playboy sportsbook is on the horizon.
https://www.playboy.com/read/the-pleasure-of-playing-with-yourself-mobile-gaming-in-the-covid-era
Cannabis - If you’ve ever read through a Playboy magazine, you know they’ve had a positive relationship with cannabis for many years. As of September 2020, Playboy has made a major shift into the cannabis space. Too good to be true you say? Check their website. Playboy currently sells a range of CBD products. This is a good sign. Federal hemp products, which these most likely are, can be mailed across state lines and most importantly for a company like Playboy, can operate through a traditional banking institution. CBD products are usually the first step towards the cannabis space for large companies. Playboy didn’t make these products themselves meaning they are working with a processor in the cannabis industry. Another good sign for future expansion. What else do they have for sale? Pipes, grinders, ashtrays, rolling trays, joint holders. Hmm. Ok. So it looks like they want to sell some shit. They probably don’t have an active interest in cannabis right? Think again:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/javierhasse/2020/09/24/playboy-gets-serious-about-cannabis-law-reform-advocacy-with-new-partnership-grants/?sh=62f044a65cea
“Taking yet another step into the cannabis space, Playboy will be announcing later on Thursday (September, 2020) that it is launching a cannabis law reform and advocacy campaign in partnership with National Organization for the Reform of Marijuana Laws (NORML), Last Prisoner Project, Marijuana Policy Project, the Veterans Cannabis Project, and the Eaze Momentum Program.”
“According to information procured exclusively, the three-pronged campaign will focus on calling for federal legalization. The program also includes the creation of a mentorship plan, through which the Playboy Foundation will support entrepreneurs from groups that are underrepresented in the industry.” Remember that CEO Kohn from earlier? He wrote this recently:
https://medium.com/naked-open-letters-from-playboy/congress-must-pass-the-more-act-c867c35239ae
Seems like he really wants weed to be legal? Hmm wonder why? The writing's on the wall my friends. Playboy wants into the cannabis industry, they are making steps towards this end, and we have favorable conditions for legislative progress.
Don’t think branding your own cannabis line is profitable or worthwhile? Tell me why these 41 celebrity millionaires and billionaires are dummies. I’ll wait.
https://www.celebstoner.com/news/celebstoner-news/2019/07/12/top-celebrity-cannabis-brands/
Confirmation: I hear you. “This all seems pretty speculative. It would be wildly profitable if they pull this shift off. But how do we really know?” Watch this whole video:
https://finance.yahoo.com/video/playboy-ceo-telling-story-female-154907068.html
Man - this interview just gets my juices flowing. And highlights one of my favorite reasons for this play. They have so many different business avenues from which a catalyst could appear. I think paying attention, holding shares, and options on these staggered announcements over the next year is the way I am going to go about it. "There's definitely been a shift to direct-to-consumer," he (Kohn) said. "About 50 percent of our revenue today is direct-to-consumer, and that will continue to grow going forward.” “Kohn touted Playboy's portfolio of both digital and consumer products, with casino-style gaming, in particular, serving a crucial role under the company's new business model. Playboy also has its sights on the emerging cannabis market, from CBD products to marijuana products geared toward sexual health and pleasure.” "If THC does become legal in the United States, we have developed certain strains to enhance your sex life that we will launch," Kohn said. https://cheddar.com/media/playboy-goes-public-health-gaming-lifestyle-focus Oh? The CEO actually said it? Ok then. “We have developed certain strains…” They’re already working with growers on strains and genetics? Ok. There are several legal cannabis markets for those products right now, international and stateside. I expect Playboy licensed hemp and THC pre-rolls by EOY. Something like this: https://www.etsy.com/listing/842996758/10-playboy-pre-roll-tubes-limited?ga_order=most_relevant&ga_search_type=all&ga_view_type=gallery&ga_search_query=pre+roll+playboy&ref=sr_gallery-1-2&organic_search_click=1 Maintaining cannabis operations can be costly and a regulatory headache. Playboy’s licensing strategy allows them to pick successful, established partners and sidestep traditional barriers to entry. You know what I like about these new markets? They’re expanding. Worldwide. And they are going to be a bigger deal than they already are with or without Playboy. Who thinks weed and gambling are going away? Too many people like that stuff. These are easy markets. And Playboy is early enough to carve out their spot in each. Fuck it, read this too: https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimosman/2020/10/20/playboy-could-be-the-king-of-spacs-here-are-three-picks/?sh=2e13dcaa3e05
Numbers: You want numbers? I got numbers. As per the company’s most recent SEC filing:
“For the year ended December 31, 2019, and the nine months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s historical consolidated revenue was $78.1 million and $101.3 million, respectively, historical consolidated net income (loss) was $(23.6) million and $(4.8) million, respectively, and Adjusted EBITDA was $13.1 million and $21.8 million, respectively.”
“In the nine months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s Licensing segment contributed $44.2 million in revenue and $31.1 million in net income.”
“In the ninth months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s Direct-to-Consumer segment contributed $40.2 million in revenue and net income of $0.1 million.”
“In the nine months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s Digital Subscriptions and Content segment contributed $15.4 million in revenue and net income of $7.4 million.”
They are profitable across all three of their current business segments.
“Playboy’s return to the public markets presents a transformed, streamlined and high-growth business. The Company has over $400 million in cash flows contracted through 2029, sexual wellness products available for sale online and in over 10,000 major retail stores in the US, and a growing variety of clothing and branded lifestyle and digital gaming products.”
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921005986/tm2034213-12_defm14a.htm#tSHCF
Growth: Playboy has massive growth in China and massive growth potential in India. “In China, where Playboy has spent more than 25 years building its business, our licensees have an enormous footprint of nearly 2,500 brick and mortar stores and 1,000 ecommerce stores selling high quality, Playboy-branded men’s casual wear, shoes/footwear, sleepwear, swimwear, formal suits, leather & non-leather goods, sweaters, active wear, and accessories. We have achieved significant growth in China licensing revenues over the past several years in partnership with strong licensees and high-quality manufacturers, and we are planning for increased growth through updates to our men’s fashion lines and expansion into adjacent categories in men’s skincare and grooming, sexual wellness, and women’s fashion, a category where recent launches have been well received.” The men’s market in China is about the same size as the entire population of the United States and European Union combined. Playboy is a leading brand in this market. They are expanding into the women’s market too. Did you know CBD toothpaste is huge in China? China loves CBD products and has hemp fields that dwarf those in the US. If Playboy expands their CBD line China it will be huge. Did you know the gambling money in Macau absolutely puts Las Vegas to shame? Technically, it's illegal on the mainland, but in reality, there is a lot of gambling going on in China. https://www.forbes.com/sites/javierhasse/2020/10/19/magic-johnson-and-uncle-buds-cbd-brand-enter-china-via-tmall-partnership/?sh=271776ca411e “In India, Playboy today has a presence through select apparel licensees and hospitality establishments. Consumer research suggests significant growth opportunities in the territory with Playboy’s brand and categories of focus.” “Playboy Enterprises has announced the expansion of its global consumer products business into India as part of a partnership with Jay Jay Iconic Brands, a leading fashion and lifestyle Company in India.” “The Indian market today is dominated by consumers under the age of 35, who represent more than 65 percent of the country’s total population and are driving India’s significant online shopping growth. The Playboy brand’s core values of playfulness and exploration resonate strongly with the expressed desires of today’s younger millennial consumers. For us, Playboy was the perfect fit.” “The Playboy international portfolio has been flourishing for more than 25 years in several South Asian markets such as China and Japan. In particular, it has strategically targeted the millennial and gen-Z audiences across categories such as apparel, footwear, home textiles, eyewear and watches.” https://www.licenseglobal.com/industry-news/playboy-expands-global-footprint-india It looks like they gave COVID the heisman in terms of net damage sustained: “Although Playboy has not suffered any material adverse consequences to date from the COVID-19 pandemic, the business has been impacted both negatively and positively. The remote working and stay-at-home orders resulted in the closure of the London Playboy Club and retail stores of Playboy’s licensees, decreasing licensing revenues in the second quarter, as well as causing supply chain disruption and less efficient product development thereby slowing the launch of new products. However, these negative impacts were offset by an increase in Yandy’s direct-to-consumer sales, which have benefited in part from overall increases in online retail sales so far during the pandemic.” Looks like the positives are long term (Yandy acquisition) and the negatives are temporary (stay-at-home orders).
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921006093/tm213766-1_defa14a.htm
This speaks to their ability to maintain a financially solvent company throughout the transition phase to the aforementioned areas. They’d say some fancy shit like “expanded business model to encompass four key revenue streams: Sexual Wellness, Style & Apparel, Gaming & Lifestyle, and Beauty & Grooming.” I hear “we’re just biding our time with these trinkets until those dollar dollar bill y’all markets are fully up and running.” But the truth is these existing revenue streams are profitable, scalable, and rapidly expanding Playboy’s e-commerce segment around the world.
"Even in the face of COVID this year, we've been able to grow EBITDA over 100 percent and revenue over 68 percent, and I expect that to accelerate going into 2021," he said. “Playboy is accelerating its growth in company-owned and branded consumer products in attractive and expanding markets in which it has a proven history of brand affinity and consumer spend.”
Also in the SEC filing, the Time Frame:
“As we detailed in the definitive proxy statement, the SPAC stockholder meeting to vote on the transaction has been set for February 9th, and, subject to stockholder approval and satisfaction of the other closing conditions, we expect to complete the merger and begin trading on NASDAQ under ticker PLBY shortly thereafter,” concluded Kohn.
The Players: Suhail “The Whale” Rizvi (HMFIC), Ben “The Bridge” Kohn (CEO), “lil” Suying Liu & “Big” Dong Liu (Young-gun China gang). I encourage you to look these folks up. The real OG here is Suhail Rizvi. He’s from India originally and Chairman of the Board for the new PLBY company. He was an early investor in Twitter, Square, Facebook and others. His firm, Rizvi Traverse, currently invests in Instacart, Pinterest, Snapchat, Playboy, and SpaceX. Maybe you’ve heard of them. “Rizvi, who owns a sprawling three-home compound in Greenwich, Connecticut, and a 1.65-acre estate in Palm Beach, Florida, near Bill Gates and Michael Bloomberg, moved to Iowa Falls when he was five. His father was a professor of psychology at Iowa. Along with his older brother Ashraf, a hedge fund manager, Rizvi graduated from Wharton business school.” “Suhail Rizvi: the 47-year-old 'unsocial' social media baron: When Twitter goes public in the coming weeks (2013), one of the biggest winners will be a 47-year-old financier who guards his secrecy so zealously that he employs a person to take down his Wikipedia entry and scrub his photos from the internet. In IPO, Twitter seeks to be 'anti-FB'” “Prince Alwaleed bin Talal of Saudi Arabia looks like a big Twitter winner. So do the moneyed clients of Jamie Dimon. But as you’ve-got-to-be-joking wealth washed over Twitter on Thursday — a company that didn’t exist eight years ago was worth $31.7 billion after its first day on the stock market — the non-boldface name of the moment is Suhail R. Rizvi. Mr. Rizvi, 47, runs a private investment company that is the largest outside investor in Twitter with a 15.6 percent stake worth $3.8 billion at the end of trading on Thursday (November, 2013). Using a web of connections in the tech industry and in finance, as well as a hearty dose of good timing, he brought many prominent names in at the ground floor, including the Saudi prince and some of JPMorgan’s wealthiest clients.” https://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/08/technology/at-twitter-working-behind-the-scenes-toward-a-billion-dollar-payday.html Y’all like that Arab money? How about a dude that can call up Saudi Princes and convince them to spend? Funniest shit about I read about him: “Rizvi was able to buy only $100 million in Facebook shortly before its IPO, thus limiting his returns, according to people with knowledge of the matter.” Poor guy :(
He should be fine with the 16 million PLBY shares he's going to have though :)
Shuhail also has experience in the entertainment industry. He’s invested in companies like SESAC, ICM, and Summit Entertainment. He’s got Hollywood connections to blast this stuff post-merger. And he’s at least partially responsible for that whole Twilight thing. I’m team Edward btw.
I really like what Suhail has done so far. He’s lurked in the shadows while Kohn is consolidating the company, trimming the fat, making Playboy profitable, and aiming the ship at modern growing markets.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-twitter-ipo-rizvi-insight/insight-little-known-hollywood-investor-poised-to-score-with-twitter-ipo-idUSBRE9920VW20131003
Ben “The Bridge” Kohn is an interesting guy. He’s the connection between Rizvi Traverse and Playboy. He’s both CEO of Playboy and was previously Managing Partner at Rizvi Traverse. Ben seems to be the voice of the Playboy-Rizvi partnership, which makes sense with Suhail’s privacy concerns. Kohn said this:
“Today is a very big day for all of us at Playboy and for all our partners globally. I stepped into the CEO role at Playboy in 2017 because I saw the biggest opportunity of my career. Playboy is a brand and platform that could not be replicated today. It has massive global reach, with more than $3B of global consumer spend and products sold in over 180 countries. Our mission – to create a culture where all people can pursue pleasure – is rooted in our 67-year history and creates a clear focus for our business and role we play in people’s lives, providing them with the products, services and experiences that create a lifestyle of pleasure. We are taking this step into the public markets because the committed capital will enable us to accelerate our product development and go-to-market strategies and to more rapidly build our direct to consumer capabilities,” said Ben Kohn, CEO of Playboy.
“Playboy today is a highly profitable commerce business with a total addressable market projected in the trillions of dollars,” Mr. Kohn continued, “We are actively selling into the Sexual Wellness consumer category, projected to be approximately $400 billion in size by 2024, where our recently launched intimacy products have rolled out to more than 10,000 stores at major US retailers in the United States. Combined with our owned & operated ecommerce Sexual Wellness initiatives, the category will contribute more than 40% of our revenue this year. In our Apparel and Beauty categories, our collaborations with high-end fashion brands including Missguided and PacSun are projected to achieve over $50M in retail sales across the US and UK this year, our leading men’s apparel lines in China expanded to nearly 2500 brick and mortar stores and almost 1000 digital stores, and our new men’s and women’s fragrance line recently launched in Europe. In Gaming, our casino-style digital gaming products with Scientific Games and Microgaming continue to see significant global growth. Our product strategy is informed by years of consumer data as we actively expand from a purely licensing model into owning and operating key high-growth product lines focused on driving profitability and consumer lifetime value. We are thrilled about the future of Playboy. Our foundation has been set to drive further growth and margin, and with the committed capital from this transaction and our more than $180M in NOLs, we will take advantage of the opportunity in front of us, building to our goal of $100M of adjusted EBITDA in 2025.”
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20201001005404/en/Playboy-to-Become-a-Public-Company
Also, according to their Form 4s, “Big” Dong Liu and “lil” Suying Liu just loaded up with shares last week. These guys are brothers and seem like the Chinese market connection. They are only 32 & 35 years old. I don’t even know what that means, but it's provocative.
https://www.secform4.com/insider-trading/1832415.htm
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mountain-crest-acquisition-corp-ii-002600994.html
Y’all like that China money?
“Mr. Liu has been the Chief Financial Officer of Dongguan Zhishang Photoelectric Technology Co., Ltd., a regional designer, manufacturer and distributor of LED lights serving commercial customers throughout Southern China since November 2016, at which time he led a syndicate of investments into the firm. Mr. Liu has since overseen the financials of Dongguan Zhishang as well as provided strategic guidance to its board of directors, advising on operational efficiency and cash flow performance. From March 2010 to October 2016, Mr. Liu was the Head of Finance at Feidiao Electrical Group Co., Ltd., a leading Chinese manufacturer of electrical outlets headquartered in Shanghai and with businesses in the greater China region as well as Europe.”
Dr. Suying Liu, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Mountain Crest Acquisition Corp., commented, “Playboy is a unique and compelling investment opportunity, with one of the world’s largest and most recognized brands, its proven consumer affinity and spend, and its enormous future growth potential in its four product segments and new and existing geographic regions. I am thrilled to be partnering with Ben and his exceptional team to bring his vision to fruition.”
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20201001005404/en/Playboy-to-Become-a-Public-Company
These guys are good. They have a proven track record of success across multiple industries. Connections and money run deep with all of these guys. I don’t think they’re in the game to lose.
I was going to write a couple more paragraphs about why you should have a look at this but really the best thing you can do is read this SEC filing from a couple days ago. It explains the situation in far better detail. Specifically, look to page 137 and read through their strategy. Also, look at their ownership percentages and compensation plans including the stock options and their prices. The financials look great, revenue is up 90% Q3, and it looks like a bright future.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921005986/tm2034213-12_defm14a.htm#tSHCF
I’m hesitant to attach this because his position seems short term, but I’m going to with a warning because he does hit on some good points (two are below his link) and he’s got a sizable position in this thing (500k+ on margin, I think). I don’t know this guy but he did look at the same publicly available info and make roughly the same prediction, albeit without the in depth gambling or cannabis mention. You can also search reddit for ‘MCAC’ and very few relevant results come up and none of them even come close to really looking at this thing.
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1gOvAd6lebs452hFlWWbxVjQ3VMsjGBkbJeXRwDwIJfM/edit?usp=sharing
“Also, before you people start making claims that Playboy is a “boomer” company, STOP RIGHT THERE. This is not a good argument. Simply put. The only thing that matters is Playboy’s name recognition, not their archaic business model which doesn’t even exist anymore as they have completely repurposed their business.”
“Imagine not buying $MCAC at a 400M valuation lol. Streetwear department is worth 1B alone imo.”
Considering the ridiculous Chinese growth as a lifestyle brand, he’s not wrong.
Current Cultural Significance and Meme Value: A year ago I wouldn’t have included this section but the events from the last several weeks (even going back to tsla) have proven that a company’s ability to meme and/or gain social network popularity can have an effect. Tik-tok, Snapchat, Twitch, Reddit, Youtube, Facebook, Twitter. They all have Playboy stuff on them. Kids in middle and highschool know what Playboy is but will likely never see or touch one of the magazines in person. They’ll have a Playboy hoodie though. Crazy huh? A lot like GME, PLBY would hugely benefit from meme-value stock interest to drive engagement towards their new business model while also building strategic coffers. This interest may not directly and/or significantly move the stock price but can generate significant interest from larger players who will.
Bull Case: The year is 2025. Playboy is now the world leader pleasure brand. They began by offering Playboy licensed gaming products, including gambling products, direct to consumers through existing names. By 2022, demand has skyrocketed and Playboy has designed and released their own gambling platforms. In 2025, they are also a leading cannabis brand in the United States and Canada with proprietary strains and products geared towards sexual wellness. Cannabis was legalized in the US in 2023 when President Biden got glaucoma but had success with cannabis treatment. He personally pushes for cannabis legalization as he steps out of office after his first term. Playboy has also grown their brand in China and India to multi-billion per year markets. The stock goes up from 11ish to 100ish and everyone makes big gains buying somewhere along the way.
Bear Case: The United States does a complete 180 on marijuana and gambling. President Biden overdoses on marijuana in the Lincoln bedroom when his FDs go tits up and he loses a ton of money in his sports book app after the Fighting Blue Hens narrowly lose the National Championship to Bama. Playboy is unable to expand their cannabis and gambling brands but still does well with their worldwide lifestyle brand. They gain and lose some interest in China and India but the markets are too large to ignore them completely. The stock goes up from 11ish to 13ish and everyone makes 15-20% gains.
TL;DR: Successful technology/e-commerce investment firm took over Playboy to turn it into a porn, online gambling/gaming, sports book, cannabis company, worldwide lifestyle brand that promotes sexual wellness, vetern access, women-ownership, minority-ownership, and “pleasure for all”. Does a successful online team reinventing an antiquated physical copy giant sound familiar? No options yet, shares only for now. $11.38 per share at time of writing. My guess? $20 by the end of February. $50 by EOY. This is not financial advice. I am not qualified to give financial advice. I’m just sayin’ I would personally use a Playboy sports book app while smoking a Playboy strain specific joint and it would be cool if they did that. Do your own research. You’d probably want to start here:
WARNING - POTENTIALLY NSFW - SEXY MODELS AHEAD - no actual nudity though
https://s26.q4cdn.com/895475556/files/doc_presentations/Playboy-Craig-Hallum-Conference-Investor-Presentation-11_17_20-compressed.pdf
Or here:
https://www.mcacquisition.com/investor-relations/default.aspx
Jimmy Chill: “Get into any SPAC at $10 or $11 and you are going to make money.”
STL;DR: Buy MCAC. MCAC > PLBY couple weeks. Rocketship. Moon.
Position: 5000 shares. I will buy short, medium, and long-dated calls once available.
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Here is a Market Recap for today Tuesday, January 26, 2021. What an insane day!!!

PsychoMarket Recap - Tuesday, January 26, 2021
Stocks were mostly flat as market participants digest the latest round of corporate earnings and continued to monitor the policy implications of the new Democratic administration in the White House.
Since his administration took over, market participants have been looking at President Biden to push for Congress to prioritize his new stimulus package. However, a bipartisan group of lawmakers has already pushed back against Biden’s proposal, according to a report by Bloomberg. Passing the new proposal after more than $3 trillion in stimulus was passed last year was always going to be a challenge. Today, President Biden said he is open to negotiating the eligibility requirements for the $1,400 stimulus checks in the bill. In terms of timing, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer siad he aims to advance the next round of stimulus by mid-March, according to a report by Bloomberg.
“I anticipate the stimulus bill to get passed, but I think it is going to likely take several weeks for that to happen. We have a divided Congress, a $1.9 trillion proposed bill after a $900 billion bill that just went through in December, so I don’t think the $1.9 trillion is likely to even be passed,” said Colleen MacPherson, Penobscot Investment Management director of research. We agree. While it is unlikely the bill passes in its current state, we expect some form of substantial stimulus to be passed in the not-too-distant future.
US scientists are preparing to upgrade Covid-19 vaccines to address variants of the coronavirus now circulating in the United States, according to Dr. Fauci. At the same time, Moderna said that though its Covid vaccine worked against the variants, the company was developing a new form of the vaccine to be used as a booster shot.
Highlights
“If you can’t you must, and if you must you can” - Tony Robbins
https://www.psychotrader00.com/
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Here is a Market Recap for today Tuesday, January 26, 2021

PsychoMarket Recap - Tuesday, January 26, 2021
Stocks were mostly flat as market participants digest the latest round of corporate earnings and continued to monitor the policy implications of the new Democratic administration in the White House.
Since his administration took over, market participants have been looking at President Biden to push for Congress to prioritize his new stimulus package. However, a bipartisan group of lawmakers has already pushed back against Biden’s proposal, according to a report by Bloomberg. Passing the new proposal after more than $3 trillion in stimulus was passed last year was always going to be a challenge. Today, President Biden said he is open to negotiating the eligibility requirements for the $1,400 stimulus checks in the bill. In terms of timing, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer ssaidiad he aims to advance the next round of stimulus by mid-March, according to a report by Bloomberg.
“I anticipate the stimulus bill to get passed, but I think it is going to likely take several weeks for that to happen. We have a divided Congress, a $1.9 trillion proposed bill after a $900 billion bill that just went through in December, so I don’t think the $1.9 trillion is likely to even be passed,” said Colleen MacPherson, Penobscot Investment Management director of research. We agree. While it is unlikely the bill passes in its current state, we expect some form of substantial stimulus to be passed in the not-too-distant future.
US scientists are preparing to upgrade Covid-19 vaccines to address variants of the coronavirus now circulating in the United States, according to Dr. Fauci. At the same time, Moderna said that though its Covid vaccine worked against the variants, the company was developing a new form of the vaccine to be used as a booster shot.
Highlights
“If you can’t you must, and if you must you can” - Tony Robbins
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50 years of tax cuts for the rich failed to trickle down, economics study says ♦♦ and other news

■ Biden vows to punish those behind hack against U.S. government
Comment: This is an enormous and ongoing hack attack, from Russia, and so far there hasn't been a peep or even a tweet about it from the current President of the United States.
    CORPORATE CAPITALISM
■ 50 years of tax cuts for the rich failed to trickle down, economics study says
■ $600 stimulus checks would not cover a family's average rent in any state
    HEALTH & SCIENCE
■ ICU availability in Southern California at 0% amid deluge of COVID-19 patients
    LIBERTY & JUSTICE FOR ALL
■ Louisiana man jailed for life over $20 marijuana sale has been freed
■ Deb Haaland is the first first Native American named to a Cabinet post
■ New York bans display of Confederate flag and other hate symbols on state grounds
    STUPID & LOUD
■ How offshore oddsmakers made a killing off gullible Trump supporters
Excerpt: Many Trump supporters were certain he could not lose, and they plowed so much money into betting on him that they distorted markets in his (and ultimately, the sportsbooks’) favor.
“It’s the most irrational market I ever saw,” says Collin Sherwin, a Tampa, Florida–based gambling writer who covers the industry for Vox Media’s DraftKings Nation.
■ Social media platforms are letting conspiracy theories about the COVID vaccine spread unchecked
■ Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R-Georgia) keeps posing with white supremacists
■ Proud Boys are using YouTube to organize violence at Joe Biden’s inauguration
 
■ ■ ■ Blocked by paywalls? ❶ Try right-clicking the link to a 'private' or 'incognito' window. ❷ Insert a period immediately after the .com part of a link's address. ❸ Install the Bypass Paywalls extension. ❹ If you still can’t access an article, say so below and I’ll post the full text. ■ ■ ■
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NHL Play-in Overview

Play-In Overview

Hey, folks! Long time, no see. I had gone quiet around here for several months before COVID-19 hit the NHL, and it’s been several more since without hockey at all. The last week of February I had several top three finishes in the breakaway and was making decent stabs into March before everything came to a halt. Much like the players themselves, I expect that people will be rusty making wagers. The contests aren’t particularly enticing though, especially considering the heavy losses sites took with unfilled GPPs for MLB and NBA milly makers. I’ll take what I can get.
If you’re new to NHL DFS, you can check out my annual NHL DFS Primer, though admittedly strategy here feels a bit more like throwing darts without much data to go on and a lot of curveball variables.
Note: at the time of writing none of the series have started yet and only the August 1 contests and salaries were posted. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

EASTERN CONFERENCE

New York Rangers vs Carolina Hurricanes
The Rangers swept the Hurricanes this season. However, they were sellers at the deadline, losing Skjei (to the Canes!), which definitely hurts them defensively because their LD depth was already atrocious. On the flipside, the Canes have a laughable amount of defensive depth right now, which helps to soften the blow in losing Hamilton and Pesce to injuries. Vatanen doesn’t come cheap, but seems to be slotting into the top powerplay unit, which was previously occupied by Slavin. Slavin’s own salary is inflated from powerplay time at the end of the season. It feels like a reach to go with either player unless you’re doing a full four man stack here. DeAngelo seems like a high risk, high reward play for the Rangers, because his salary is also inflated but he did have some huge games to occasionally justify it. I think Adam Fox will go under the radar and could chip in a few points here and there as well, if you’re looking for value.
As far as the match-up goes, the Rangers are totally outmatched in depth, both for offense and defense. What makes this one interesting for DFS is just how hot the Rangers top six was toward the end of the curtailed season. Zibanejad had 75 points (41G, 34A) in only 57 games and might’ve eclipsed the 100 point mark if he could’ve sustained that pace for a full season. Panarin’s first year as a Ranger had him eclipse his previous point totals with 95 points (32G, 63A) in 69 games. These numbers are insane to me, especially considering a fair chunk of production came when they weren’t even linemates. Not to discount CAR1 as an option, but they’re quite expensive and Hurricanes tend to score as a team without relying on a single offensive line. NYR2 is easily attainable and could win you a GPP if that line picks up where they left off, and I’m not shying away from NYR1 either. It should be noted that the Rangers scored an average of 4.25 goals against the Hurricanes this season.
The other contributing factor in this series will be goaltending, as Mrazek has shown flourishes at times but isn’t exactly who I would want as my starting goalie headed into a playoff contest, while the Rangers theoretically are choosing between three goaltenders at this time. I would prefer to see what Shesterkin could do, but there’s a possibility that Lundqvist will be between the pipes, especially since he had success against the Canes in the past. He’s a reasonable value option with upside, and even more so if you’re looking on Draftkings, where he should hit the shot bonus night in, night out. I would be surprised if they made Georgiev their guy, though he still seems to be hanging in there. He’s basically priced at the floor, if that’s the case.
F: CAR1, Williams; NYR1, NYR2
D: Vatanen, Slavin, Deangelo, Fox
G: Lundqvist/Shesterkin
Florida Panthers vs New York Islanders
The Panthers just gave up five goals in their exhibition game. Granted, it was against the Tampa Bay Lightning, but that can’t be a confidence booster for the team or good for Bobrovsky’s morale. It also doesn’t help that the Isles swept their regular season matchup. For reasons unclear to me, NYI1 is priced in the same tier as McDavid’s and Crosby’s lines. There’s absolutely nothing about their point production that justifies this to me, and it’s even more mystifying when compared to NYI2, who actually had more points overall and will see easier deployment. I could see some people dipping down to Pageau or Cizikas as one offs for value, but I’m not personally on it. I might take a look at Pulock as a pivot on Draftkings where he will pick up solid peripherals and could chip in a point or two though. Greene is also likely to get the blocked shot bonus with a reasonable salary.
I’m not sure what broke for the Panthers this year, but unless their top line is reunited and happens to click, I expect an early exit for them in this season. They didn’t muster more than a goal a game against the Islanders and traded away Trocheck for Haula, while the Isles have even more depth now and should be able to shut them down completely. Hoffman had a decent season and remained a viable standalone option during the regular season, but I can’t even see myself getting to him here.
I’m expecting Varlamov in net over Greiss, but both options are affordable on either site. This seems like the safest bet all around to me.
F: NYI2, Pageau. Subject to change if Bob is worse than expected.
D: Pulock, Greene (DK)
G: Varlamov
Montreal Canadiens vs Pittsburgh Penguins
As a Montreal Canadiens fan it pains me to say this, but I have no hope whatsoever the Canadiens manage to steal this series. Our left defense is weak and we traded away Scandella, who was barely a bandaid for that problem anyway. We also ditched Thompson, who would’ve helped immensely on the penalty kill, as well as Kovalchuk. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh bolstered their already enviable top six by reuniting Sheary with Crosby (while also getting Guentzel back), recruiting a long-coveted Zucker to play with Malkin, and tossing in Marleau for good measure. Their fourth line is a defensive beast. The Pens are the Vegas favorites in the play-in for good reason. Hornqvist is a nightly contender for the Draftkings shot bonus and could also pick up powerplay points, so I don’t mind him as a one-off. The only hope the Habs have here will be creating turnovers in the neutral zone with their speed, so you might expect someone like Byron to be a situational value play or something. I will have a few shares of the Canadiens because I will be watching the games and will kick myself if MTL1 clicks, but they’re priced up and have a tough task ahead of them. Basically, the Pens have a top six where four players averaged over a point per game this season; the Habs have… one player that sniffed the possibility for a little while, maybe.
On defense, Petry is priced reasonably on Fanduel and will be eating up big minutes. If their exhibition game is any indication of how bad their powerplay is going to be (they gave up two shorthanded goals to the Leafs), I’m also hoping he takes Weber’s spot on the blue line, but it seems incredibly unlikely that happens. Weber will likely have a big game at some point in the series but I’m not sure his salary justifies the risk for me. The high-end defensive option is obviously Letang, though he is often a boom or bust candidate. I’m loving the value offered for Marino on defense and will be getting a lot of shares of him.
Even if Price was still the greatest goaltender in the world and he was priced at floor, it would be a considerable risk to play him. I’m avoiding him completely. I’m not sure whether Jarry or Murray is getting the nod in net. Both goalies are priced high and, though there is certainly upside there since the Habs do tend to shoot a lot of low risk pucks at the net, there are worse options.
F: PIT1, PIT2, Hornqvist; MTL1
D: Marino, Letang; Petry
G: Murray/Jarry (if you’re rich)
Toronto Maple Leafs versus Columbus Blue Jackets
The Columbus Blue Jackets still managed to win games this season, despite being decimated by significant injuries and not looking like they have much depth on paper when healthy. They lost Panarin and Bobrovsky in the off-season and I think many people, myself included, thought they would be a bottom-dwelling team for some time, even after their surprise upset of Tampa Bay in the first round of the playoffs last year. Merzlikins really showed up as well and won me some money on his hot streak. As far as DFS value though, their entire roster was capped below 50 points this season. They have a healthier lineup now, so when lines shake out there’s a possibility for breakout games from Bjorkstrand, Anderson, Atkinson, etc. but I would only really take a stab on Werenski here, and even then his salary isn’t palatable.
The Leafs offense is frustrating to me. Each of the top two lines have players that can offset the star salaries (Hyman; Mikheyev), which helps, but it’s impossible to tell which will go off and whether they’ll have full line correlation. Though Marner puts up a ton of points, he’s primarily a playmaker, and assists alone make it difficult to pay off his salary for DFS. With that said, it seems impossible to completely fade Matthews or Tavares in this series, and they are likely to be incredibly chalky. Mikheyev looked great in his return in the exhibition game. Hell, there’s even a chance the third line contributes a few goals here. I’m still taking Rielly over Barrie though, despite not getting the powerplay time. Muzzin will get some peripherals and could chip in a few points as well.
If Columbus wins, it’s tough to say whether it’ll be from a showstopping performance from their goaltender or a team effort blocking numerous shots. Either way, it seems like quite the gamble to go this route in net. Andersen is a better goalie than he gets credit for and the Leafs do tend to give up a lot of shots against, but considering his likely ownership percentage, I’m hoping he’s a bust.
F: Leafs.
D: Rielly, Muzzin; Werenski
G: Andersen, Merzlikins

WESTERN CONFERENCE

Winnipeg Jets vs Calgary Flames
I feel bad for the Jets, I really do. They lost basically their entire defense core and several key forwards in a single offseason. They really had to change up their strategy this season to compensate and it has hurt the production of their top six a bit, even if WPG1 still maintained a point per game pace. Pionk was a pleasant surprise, and Hellebuyck put up a Vezina-caliber season, but this doesn’t feel like a playoff team to me anymore. Thankfully, neither does this season’s iteration of the Calgary Flames, which is interesting because not much changed from last season when they were at the top of their division. They have not faced each other yet in 2020. Anything could happen in the playoffs definitely holds true with this series.
At a glance, it looks like the Jets have the better goaltender, but the Flames have the better defense. Both have a viable top six, though CGY1 is considerably cheaper on Draftkings. CGY2 and WPG2 are stackable with most anything, which makes them enticing considering both have upside. CGY1 and WPG1 both have multipoint upside as well. This whole series is a bit of a head scratcher for me though, because I’m undecided if we’ll see tight 2-1 playoff hockey or a shooting gallery. My only take is that there is a lot of potential here, from Hellebuyck in net for GPP upside, to either side breaking the slate. Gustafsson is very accessible if he usurps the PP1 spot from Giordano again, though I don’t see it happening unless he’s already logging huge minutes.
F: CGY1, CGY2; WPG1, WPG2
D: Gustafsson (value)
G: Hellebuyck.
Chicago Blackhawks vs Edmonton Oilers
Hindsight is 2020 and they likely would’ve rolled with Crawford anyway, but flipping Lehner at the trade deadline seems like an awful mistake right now. My hunch is that the Oilers are sticking to Koskinen, but if game one goes badly I could see them throwing Smith into the crease as well.
It goes without saying who the players to watch in this series will be, but getting to them is complicated by some line juggling. It’s worth noting the Hawks scored three goals in all three games this season. It’s safe to play Kane alone as he works his way opportunistically up and down the lineup, at least. Why Kubalik is currently stuck with Dach on the third line when he was playing so well with Toews only makes me think Toews and Saad will be tasked with shutting down… the entire top six of the Oilers, since whichever line isn’t up against Toews is going to have a lot of fun in this series. My guess is that it will be the Draisaitl line, which is why I’m really hoping Nuge drops down to EDM2 soon. That line was one of the best in the league headed into our unplanned break here. As it stands, having Draisaitl with both Yamamoto and Ennis offers huge salary relief that allows this line to be paired with almost anything though, so I’m leaning on that.
With Gustafsson no longer in the lineup and Seabrook out, Keith is going to be playing big minutes and getting powerplay time. He seems like a decent mid-range value option to me right now on Draftkings. As long as Klefbom is healthy and on the top powerplay, he deserves a solid look even if you could pay up for others, though his salary is a bit off-putting. Players like Russell and De Haan probably see some value on Draftkings for the shot block bonus alone. Nurse is also a reasonable pick, though I would likely pay up for Klefbom, if possible.
F: EDM2, McDavid; Kane
D: Keith; Klefbom, Russell (DK)
G: Nope.
Arizona Coyotes vs Nashville Predators
Without looking, can you guess who led the Predators in points this season? When your best player is a defenseman even though you sacrificed plenty to build your top six, you can’t be very happy with the results. Josi was one of the top defensemen in the league this year and deserves a spot in any lineup that can afford him, regardless of competition. He plays big minutes, he blocks, he shoots, and he has almost a point per game. Beyond him and his defensive partner, Ellis, the Predators are seriously underwhelming for DFS options. Sure, there’s a chance you’ll find value from Jarnkrok, Bonino, Smith, etc. or maybe Ekholm on the backend, but the probability of Forsberg or Arvidsson getting you a hat trick with Johansen even touching the puck on the play feels like a distant memory right now.
That’s not to say the Coyotes look any better though. Chychrun always stands out as a value play to me, as has Goligoski from time to time. Hall has some potential but is unlikely to pay off his salary. Garland outperformed Kessel, so if his salary is reasonable, I’d look there. All in all though, this one is likely to come down to goaltender upside more than anything.
F: There’s value upside here (Garland; Bonino, Jarnkrok) and Hall
D: Josi, Ellis; Chychrun
G: Whomever is starting has potential
Vancouver Canucks vs Minnesota Wild
The post-Sedin era for the Canucks seems promising a lot faster than anticipated. I had personally wanted the Habs to draft Hughes over Kotkaniemi and he seems to be living up to expectations. Everything in the top six seems to be going right, with JT Miller and Toffoli slotting in well next to Pettersson, and Pearson being a huge upgrade over Eriksson with Horvat and a now-healthy Boeser (who is from Minnesota, for whatever that’s worth). Edler is still a peripheral beast, though he has lost some edge on points without as much powerplay time. Markstrom is settling in while Demko warms up. They’re going to be in cap hell soon, but for now: weee! A lot of people are going to be trying to ride this train to the bank.
They actually didn’t have much success against the Wild this season, however, and a well-rested core of veterans playing a tight defensive system could pose a few problems for the Canucks. Fiala was red hot down the stretch. At the time of the Granlund trade that seemed like another in a series of terrible moves, but that actually seems to have paid off. There are some other potential value picks throughout this lineup if a depth line gets hot, but you’re probably safe not looking at them. Suter and Spurgeon offer upside with big minutes, peripherals and powerplay time, while Dumba is likely to be dirt cheap and could regain his former glory.
F: VAN1, VAN2; Fiala
D: Hughes; SuteSpurgeon, Dumba
G: Maybe?
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NHL DFS Tuesday 11/12/19 - 9 Game Slate

Disclaimer: I don’t have the time to update this after I’ve submitted anymore, so make sure the lines are still together and there aren’t any late injuries/scratches/etc. If you reach me afterward, I’ll be replying via mobile.
I’m still kicking myself a bit for my Saturday picks. We had some company all day and I knew I wouldn’t have a chance for any changes, so I bet conservatively. I had all the right players (Nilsson, Makar, Weber) and lines (WSH2, STL2) but I’d stacked them with only the Hawks instead of each other as well like I normally would :( That’ll teach me to have a social life.
Tonight’s slate is quite manageable with only nine games. Fanduel has their $7 Super Crossbar going on, which means the Breakaway has terrible returns. I’d throw my money on Draftkings tonight, especially the $4 Forecheck with $5k to first that’s capped at 20 entries. You’re much more likely to get a decent win there with 20 lineups than $77 thrown at the Super Crossbar.
FLA@BOS: The Bruins at home should see BOS1 ownership near 20% on pretty much any slate. With fewer games to target, that seems like a reasonable expectation tonight. The team has cooled off a bit but they’re still one of the best teams in the league, especially on home ice. I’m hoping we see good Bob tonight and the Panthers stay out of the penalty box, where Pastrnak has collected a lot of his points. In seven of eight games, Florida has managed a floor of three goals against the Bruins. There’s always a high chance most of those goals are coming from FLA1, which is a far cheaper line than BOS1. Basically, there’s no reason not to pay up for both of these lines on a smaller slate, but obviously there’s no possibility of stacking both of them together without dropping Dadonov and Bergeron and finding some deep punts.
CBJ@MTL: I still cringe whenever the Habs face the Blue Jackets after that 10-0 game three years ago, but there’s really no reason for it. Still, I was downtown Montreal yesterday and they were firing off cannons every minute for a Remembrance Day ceremony, and I’m pretty sure it triggered some PTSD. Elvis is in net, Columbus is on the road… if Weber is playing, he seems like a lot across the board. If he’s not, things are looking good for Petry. Lines haven’t been confirmed yet, but I would imagine Tatar takes his spot back on the top line and Drouin moves back down to L2. If not, I’d be hard pressed to do much linestacking here. There could be an argument to take Price, but he’s going to need to face a decent amount of rubber and/or get the shutout to really pay off his salary on either site. I have no interest in CBJ stacks, but you will certainly find some value there.
PIT@NYR: The Pens offense will either be consolidated to Malkin or all over the place tonight with Crosby out. Again, still waiting to see how the lines shake out in his absence. The Rangers powerplay has been surprisingly good, but so has the Pens PK. Plus, DeAngelo’s price tag is going up, I’m not high on these lines in general, and the Pens basically ruined most of my lineups last week, so I don’t feel very comfortable picking on them. That probably means I’ll fade New York and you’ll win a GPP on the backs of the Rangers tonight.
ARI(b)@STL: The Coyotes are on a back-to-back on the road and the Blues have had a seriously great run heading into tonight’s contest. Historically the Blues have choked more often than not against the Coyotes, but that was back when they had Allen in net and Arizona were the underdogs, so it seems less likely that happens tonight. I like O’Reilly and Perron as a mini-stack pretty much any night, with Pietrangelo whenever it feels appropriate. Outside of a Chychrun punt, I’m not high on much else here.
COL@WPG: For the first time in forever, the Avs are finding depth scoring in the wake of the Landeskog and Rantanen injuries. Even with Hellebuyck performing extremely well lately, and he definitely has to with the completely depleted defensive group, I’m still on at least Makar tonight. This seems like a sneaky one tonight because Grubauer is still out and Hellebuyck could stand on his head, but we could definitely see a wonky hat trick come from out of nowhere. Probably just Makar for me, but I’m really not sure about this one.
NSH@VAN: The Preds still technically have the best offense in the league if you average over the season, though they’re slowly coming back to Earth. I’m not sure I’m putting much stock in any historical data here either, as the Canucks are the same team they were with the Sedins, and so on. For what it’s worth, Nashville has had a floor of three with a ceiling of seven goals against the Canucks over the last two seasons, and I have this stupid statistic stuck in my head from last season where Forsberg happens to score more often on Tuesdays (which is really reaching)... What I’m trying to say is that NSH1 has been reunited and will likely go underowned with the potential to go off tonight. It’s not often you get full powerplay correlation for the Predators this season. I like that Baertschi is on the top line and there is a chance we see some top six goals from the Canucks, especially because Rinne either seems to serve up Vezina performances or implode. Vancouver has had the highest xGF% so far this month and aren’t really having much trouble scoring either. I think I like this more for VAN1 upside as a value stack or NSH1 upside with lower ownership than I’m actually targeting anything here, but this game defnitely has potential for goals.
MIN@LAK: This isn’t a sexy matchup by any means with two bottom dwellers facing each other, but the Kings are still taking a lot of shots with the lowest xGF% in the league, and probably have a good 70% chance of losing this one even on home ice, so Dubnyk could be in play tonight if you’re not particularly risk averse. He’s certainly cheap enough on Fanduel. The top six from the Wild also offer some value but there’s no overlap with the powerplay and there’s always a chance the defense will step up and steal your points tonight, so that’s a tricky one. It’s quite impressive that I actually have less interest in ever playing the Kings than the Senators right now. There might be one night they happen to have the upside to win you a GPP, and LAK2 is basically free on Draftkings with full powerplay correlation, but it still feels gross to even consider it.
DET@ANA: For me, this is projected to be the lowest scoring game on the slate. Gibson at home against the Red Wings should still see decent ownership, even though Detroit has managed to cause a few upsets lately. Fabbri came into the lineup with something to prove and has so far delivered. He could make a solid punt. DET1 is still together and they always have potential for a big game. ANA2 has full powerplay correlation, though they’ve cooled off a bit. It’s most likely this is only a target for goaltending and a punt (Kase, Fabbri) but anything can happen.
EDM@SJS: If we get to this point in the evening and feel like we’re securely in the money, there’s a good chance this game is going to ruin your night. It’s all going to depend on what Sharks team we see though. McDavid and Draisaitl are a given on the smaller slate, however you want to fit them in. Couture and Karlsson did a lot of damage against the Oilers last season, and SJS1 has full correlation with him tonight. I’m not sure you really want to fade Hertl either, and even Goodrow has been doing more damage than Labanc recently. I’m scratching my head a little bit on this one because this is the sort of game where I’d expect the Sharks to show up, but the Oilers have also (somehow) had a fantastic penalty kill and that’s where I’d expect San Jose to deal the most damage. The Sharks have had a solid 58% Corsi for while the Oilers have had around 47% this month at five on five, but they’ve also given up scarcely more than a goal a game. What the Oilers lack in overall Corsi, they’ve made up for in high danger scoring chances (thanks pretty much entirely to McDavid and Draisaitl). I’m definitely finding it difficult to trust anything right now and the results of this game will be interesting to see if they’re an aberration or confirmation of what should be reliable data. San Jose has to be due for some positive regression and I’m hoping for them to show up tonight.
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Probable chalk: BOS1, EDM1, MTL
Top pivots: SJS1, FLA1, NSH1
Value lines: VAN1, STL2, MIN
Defense: Makar, WebePetry, Wild and Preds defensemen in general (Spurgeon/Hunt, Josi/Ellis/Ekholm, etc.), Grzelcyk (quarterbacking in Krug's absence)
“Safest” goaltenders: Dubnyk, Price, Gibson
If you’re new to DFS, check out My 2019-2020 NHL DFS Primer.
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NHL DFS TONIGHT! 12/11/18

Slate Overview
Matchup | Back-to-Back | Points (Halved) | Goals per Game Average, Expected Goals per Game, Shooting Percentage, Corsi for Percentage, Shots per Game Average | Goals Against per Game Average, Expected Goals Against per Game, Save Percentage, Corsi Against Percentage | Powerplay Percentage, Penalty Kill Percentage | Games Played Over Last 2 Seasons, Wins, Goals, Ceiling, Floor, Average | Vegas Odds | Win Percentage | Projection (WIP) | OveUnder Expectation
Explanation of These Stats and General NHL DFS Primer
ARI@BOS: The Coyotes have not beat the Bruins since 2010 when they were still the Phoenix Coyotes. They have had a ceiling of only two goals over the last two seasons. Raanta is likely out for the remainder of the year. Marchand and Pastrnak are finally starting to heat up sans Bergeron. I don’t think you necessarily have to be all over the Bruins offense tonight, but Halak Rask is definitely a top cash goalie for the slate, if not a quality GPP option. Just need to worry about facing enough shots to compensate for his salary.
LAK(b)@BUF: The Sabres at home vs the Kings on a back-to-back is an excellent spot for them to turn their losing streak around. Skinner had a hat trick already versus them this season, why not another one? Dahlin and Ristolainen are both on the top powerplay unit, though Ristolainen has played more minutes, produced more points lately and offers more peripherals. Decent value around the $5k mark in both formats.
TOR@CAR: I had some quality lineups last Saturday that were completely destroyed by Andersen in net. I still managed to cash but would’ve cracked the top 20 with three entries had I picked basically anyone else. Unfortunate they didn’t pull him earlier because the Leafs actually started getting going late in the third, only to sputter out because they ran out of time. Andersen is always in play because the Leafs have enough offense to win any night, and against Carolina that’s consistently pushing shots on net is ideal for upside. However, that’s definitely not to say he’s a safe bet tonight, though looking at the Canes lines right now I would imagine if Andersen gets lit it’s four goals from four lines. Both Hamilton and Faulk could make decent one offs, as they’re shooting a lot and the Leafs have struggled a bit from point shots. If Mrazek is confirmed, you gotta like basically anyone on the Leafs. TOR2 in particular is dirt cheap to stack on Fanduel. I’m hoping it’s McElhinney so he can prove himself against the team that placed him on waivers. The Leafs are a tough fade tonight and could burn me, but I’m probably looking that way.
VAN@CBJ: The Vegas odds here are one of two headscratchers for me. The Canucks have won 3 in a row against the Blue Jackets with at least three goals in all of those games. Whatever is happening in Columbus right now is going to give Tortorella an aneurysm. Pettersson and Boeser could go overlooked tonight and easily share six points between them IMO. Gotta wait to see what the blender does to the Columbus lines at this point, but that first line always has a decent shot, night in, night out.
DET(b)@WSH: It’s hard to get a read on what’s happening with the Red Wings right now, though it’s not surprising that they’re finally scoring goals now that they’ve finally built scoring lines. Cholowski is back on the top powerplay unit and produced a goal last night, and his salary has bottomed out after a hot start to the season. It’s obviously not an ideal matchup vs the Caps, but you could do worse than a top powerplay quarterback for a little more than $3k. Oshie comes into the lineup with Ovi and Backstrom, which could be fun vs Bernier in net. That second line with Vrana Kuznetsov and Connolly also offers some value. I haven’t taken the time to plug anything into the stacker yet, but if things fall into place I imagine I’ll have a few Caps lines in there tonight.
FLA@STL: This would be the other matchup where the Vegas odds are questionable, though at least the Blues aren’t heavy favorites. Allen has been better of late, but he’s still Allen, and with the Blues practices erupting into fist fights I’m skeptical they’ve worked out their chemistry issues coming into this game. If the Panthers can get an early goal, I expect the Blues fall apart here, and there’s some historical precedence too as Florida has scored 12 goals vs the Blues in their last two games. Gotta love that top line tonight, feel free to add in Hoffman, Yandle and/or Ekblad. Add the whole team, really. It seems more like a matter of where the goals are coming from, not if they’re going to occur. There could be some upside in a contrarian play with the Blues if there’s a quality line that shakes out after morning skate but the salaries aren’t really dropping as quickly as you’d hope. Update: O'Reilly is centering Steen and Tarasenko, Schenn is centering Perron and Schwartz, so at least they have potential to actually score as a unit again.
OTT@NSH: The Preds have had a floor of 3 goals vs the Sens over the last two seasons and will likely match that tonight, but where they come from is a mystery. I’m not really sure why Tolvanen has been shuffled around the lineup since his first game though. There’s potential upside if any of the Preds line can score two, since all their lines are reasonably priced, but Preds scoring in general is a crapshoot, let alone playing Hartman as a first line winger. I’d likely rather Yandle and/or Ekblad over Josi tonight as well, so this is probably a fade for me too. Chabot is great and finally hit parity ($5600 on both) after being ridiculously cheap on Fanduel for so long. If anyone will carry this team while Duchene is out, it’s Mark Stone, who is an absolute steal at $4800 on Draftkings.
MTL@MIN: The Habs have not beat the Wild since 2014 and generally perform worse on the road out west. Zucker had a hat trick here previously and is getting first line minutes with Eric Staal and Granlund. But, like the Preds, the Wild scoring isn’t so predictable and hard to pick for DFS. They have enough defensemen that could put up some points as well. I have a homer bias here (Montreal) so I would feel like a dick if I told you to fade the Habs entirely, but I’m skeptical anyone is really going to pay themselves off here tonight. Update: the Wild are looking even better with Niemi in net tongiht.
CHI@WPG: Ehlers had a hat trick here previously, but the entire top six is in play for the Jets. It’s possible now that Laine has cooled off a bit that his salary will deter some folks from picking him tonight. I like Trouba as a decent mid-range defenseman tonight. The Jets have been a bit leaky vs the Hawks but there has been no consistent scoring here, historically, nor do their current lines really jump out for stacking purposes. Update: looks like Ward is confirmed, which just makes this all that much sweeter tonight.
EDM@COL: I don’t think you can call McDavid or MacKinnon “sneaky upside” for a late night hammer here, but both of these top lines are definitely in play tonight. McDavid had a hat trick here last year, you can never really rule at COL1 at home. I don’t think you really need more analysis when these two face each other. Those good guys are good.
Top GPP goalie: Halak Rask, Dubnyk, Andersen (for upside), Ullmark if you need to dip down on Fanduel (Update: though Brossoit is the same price there, now that he's confirmed)
Top cash goalie: Halak Rask, Dubnyk
Trouble making your stacks work and hate using an optimizer? Try my custom Fanduel and Draftkings Line Stacker instead.
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NHL DFS TONIGHT! 12/4/18.

Slate Overview
Matchup | Back-to-Back | Points (Halved) | Goals per Game Average, Expected Goals per Game, Shooting Percentage, Corsi for Percentage, Shots per Game Average | Goals Against per Game Average, Expected Goals Against per Game, Save Percentage, Corsi Against Percentage | Powerplay Percentage, Penalty Kill Percentage | Games Played Over Last 2 Seasons, Wins, Goals, Ceiling, Floor, Average | Vegas Odds | Win Percentage | Projection (WIP) | OveUnder Expectation
Man, this place was a deadzone over the weekend. First off, a little bragging, as I placed second in the Saturday Fanduel Breakaway for $2000. At one point Trouba had been credited with a goal that brought me up to first place and also had me in the lead for my two Draftkings single entries as well, but I only made $150 there in the end. There was surprisingly low ownership for NSH1 with Tolvanen, Johansen and Fiala and I wish I had more time to have abused that. I only entered two entries on Fanduel and two on Draftkings and made out like a bandit. I had NSH1/TBL2 with Trouba, Weber and Rinne/Brossoit. Hoping to carry forward a little luck into this week, which is going to be a crazy one for me, so I’m not sure how much posting I’ll be able to get done here after today.
(As a side note, It’s nice to see some of you are actually using the Stacker and have figured out how to tweak it for your purposes. I hope it’s helped you turn a higher profit so far!)
BOS@FLA: The Bruins offense has seriously dried up since Bergeron got injured, averaging only 1.3 goals per game during the month of November. On the plus side though, they’ve also got a 1.3 goals against average and have been shooting well under expectation, so they’re bound to have some positive regression at some point if they can figure out their lines. In the meantime, that at least puts Halak in play tonight for me, as the Panthers are leading the league for shots on goal and the Bruins have a 67% win rate vs them over the last two seasons as well. It’s not without risk, but there’s high upside for the Bruins netminder tonight. I’ll be avoiding the rest of the lineups here, though I am somewhat enticed by BOS2.
WPG@NYI: I like the Trotz quote suggesting the only way to stop Laine right now would be bad food. The Jets are producing at an unsustainable clip, but not by such a large margin that you really have to be concerned about it, especially since they’re scoring a ton on the powerplay. You’ll be paying up for them and they’re not highly on my radar, but the Jets top six should see some decent ownership tonight. It’s worth noting Barzal had a hat trick vs the Jets last season and Hellebuyck has been shaky lately. Again, not a place I’m targeting personally, but something of interest to note.
COL@PIT: This one is almost too obvious to write up: MacKinnon or Crosby’s lines, avoid both goaltenders. Crosby obviously comes with cheaper wingers though, which makes the matchup more appealing at home.
CGY@CBJ: This is an interesting matchup to me. Columbus has won three straight vs the Flames while giving up one or less and are playing at home. The Flames are second on the slate for shots on goal. That puts Bobrovsky in play for me. Then again, the Flames also have a high xGF and have been playing a lot better as of late. I don’t like betting against Columbus at home, but I’m not sure how safe Bob will be tonight. He’s still on my radar though. Dubois also had a hat trick here last season and CBJ1 is always a good play, so I’ll definitely be watching to see if it’s Smith or Rittich confirmed. I'm still not really shying off CBJ1 with Rittich in net TBH.
TOR@BUF(b): Andersen faced among the highest volume of shots of any goaltender in November, mostly with an injured Matthews and before Nylander was signed, with the highest save percentage in the league. That is fantasy gold right there, even if it’s on the road. The Sabres are on a back-to-back and had to travel from Nashville. I feel pretty good about this matchup, both for the Leafs offense and Andersen. (If Nylander does play tonight, he is insanely underpriced.) That doesn't seem very likely.
OTT@MTL: Both of these teams are in the upper echelons at producing goals this season, while also having incredibly poor defensive numbers. You’d expect the Habs blueline to stabilize a bit with Weber’s return, but so far… not so much. Chabot and Weber are both in play on the back end, especially for cash games, but it could be tricky establishing where the goals are actually coming from here. MTL2 has been producing more shots and high danger chances and has better powerplay correlation and I’d probably lean toward OTT2 for powerplay correlation as well, though Duchene also seems to be the most likely to go off alone.
TBL(b)@DET: The Lightning have won ten in a row vs the Red Wings. They’re also on the road on a back-to-back. Detroit has actually been quite solid defensively, especially at home. I’m not sure what to make of this. Everything points toward the Lightning completely obliterating the Red Wings tonight but I kind of want to fade this just because it also seems like the most chalky matchup that also has potential to be a dud. The Lightning also haven’t been so great defensively with a few injuries back there and Vasilevskiy still out… Mantha and Larkin have been shooting a ton and have some powerplay correlation with Green if you’re looking that way for a reasonable contrarian play with lower ownership. Mantha is MIA, Larkin gets Nyquist now. That's less appealing.
MIN@VAN: I’m projecting the Canucks with a floor of two tonight with minimal shots, so Dubnyk is off the table for me. I also don’t really know where those goals are coming from, so I’m basically already bored looking at this matchup. I might give a slight edge to Horvat’s line, simply because Pettersson has been shooting less, but then you’re missing out on Boeser, so… there are better options out there, but something could pan out with reasonable value here.
WSH@VGK: Ah, a Stanley Cup finals rematch. There’s nothing that scares me more because these matchups defy logic and I have to put my fancy stats away and just wait and see. I’ve been saying it for a month now, but VGK2 is still criminally underpriced in both formats and should be in play pretty much every night until they cool off. WSH1 is very high on my list tonight though, as I expect Ovechkin wants to come into town and show them up again. Edit: Pacioretty is a game-time decision due to an illness, so that kinda rules this out for me as a late night game.
ARI@LAK: The Coyotes had only 4 high danger goals last month. Four. All month. Unsurprisingly, they averaged barely above a goal per game all month and between the line blender trying to get something going and the injuries, especially to Raanta, they’ve started to slip defensively as well. I’m definitely looking at the Kings on home ice tonight, at least in net for cash games. They haven’t been able to score goals but they’re still way up there for saves and goals against average. It’s just a matter of whether they see any shots that make it through.
Top GPP goalie: Quick, Bobrovsky, Halak, Andersen
Top cash goalie: Andersen
Trouble making your stacks work and hate using an optimizer? Try my custom Fanduel and Draftkings Line Stacker instead.
Edit: Clearly this was way off tonight, with Florida and Calgary going off.
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NHL TONIGHT! Pre-Thanksgiving Appetizer.

If you've been looking for a slate to pump some serious money into, this would be it. Not too many nights like this one each season. Fanduel has their generic $4.44 entry, $5k top prize tonight. Over on DK, $5 entry with $10k top prize. I'm all over that tonight. Epic slate, pretty much every team in the league is playing. No obvious chalk that will be more than 10% owned. Let's make some money, shall we?
Slate Overview
*Updated with advanced stats *
Matchup | Back-to-Back | Points (Halved) | Goals per Game Average, Expected Goals per Game, Shooting Percentage, Corsi for Percentage, Shots per Game Average | Goals Against per Game Average, Expected Goals Against per Game, Save Percentage, Corsi Against Percentage | Powerplay Percentage, Penalty Kill Percentage | Games Played Over Last 2 Seasons, Wins, Goals, Ceiling, Floor, Average | Vegas Odds | Win Percentage | Projection (WIP) | OveUnder Expectation
MTL@NJD: The obvious choice here is NJD1 with Hall/Zajac/Palmieri (Edit: Hischier returns tonight) but we could see a 3-2 depth scoring game here. There’s value to be had in punt players like Kotkaniemi or Coleman (on Fanduel, at least), as well as Petry (again, Fanduel), Severson or Butcher. Numberswise, MTL2 is due for some regression but they could easily pot two if they click again tonight. As a Habs fan that’s been watching them play, you gotta like whatever line they’re paired up against because they’re giving up a lot of turnovers, but the goals they’re scoring justify the high shooting percentage they’re at right now as well. Not liking either team in net.
NYI@NYR: There’s a lot to love in this matchup. The Isles have won 7 in a row, so whoever’s confirmed in net could be a high upside option. (I’m waiting for the lines to be confirmed to lean one way or another here though.) Chytil has been hot since being promoted to the first line. If he remains there, he’s a good value pick. Pionk’s price tag is rising, but Pulock is still affordable, and Leddy is basically free and he should be due for some powerplay points in the near future. He was steady Leddy for a few months last season and there’s only so many chances they can get before that pays dividends. Not my favorite target tonight but definitely up there.
DAL@PIT: Crosby returns and all the lines get shuffled again. It’s a shame because I want to pick on Khudobin on the road. Pens have an atrocious losing streak right now but it’s not from a lack of goals. Obviously not a hot take, but I expect at least a powerplay goal from the Pens tonight, even if the Stars penalty kill has been solid (5th on the slate at 83%). It’s not unlikely we’ll see 2+ from anyone in the Pens top six. Due to the Pens defensive woes, DAL1 is definitely in play, though that’s going to be a tough one to stack even with Radulov being reasonably priced still. Lindell has value on the top powerplay if you want to go all out for a four man stack.
CHI@WSH: Copley was outplaying Holtby but that wasn’t going to last for very long. Holtby’s in tonight, so we’ll see how well the Caps perform at home without Kuznetsov and Oshie again. I’m liking their top line on Fanduel since it’s very affordable, gets exposure to Ovechkin, and will likely be underowned tonight (Edit: bah, it looks like they moved Backstrom up there, so the value is shot). Unless Debrincat steps it up as a one off, it’s hard to like anything below CHI1. Both teams have terrible penalty kills but that’s a bit of a crapshoot since the Caps are missing a solid third of theirs and the Hawks don’t really have a powerplay quarterback.
TOR@CAR: There’s an argument to be made that Andersen is one of the better options in net tonight: he’ll see a ton of shots and has been winning a lot of games. Despite leading in all the super advanced stats, the Canes just cannot score. (They’re leading the league in xGF/60, CF% and SF/G). I want to read this as the Canes have good possession metrics but can’t actually setup a play, but I haven’t read too much into their high danger chances or anything so take that for what you will. Their shot attempts are also slowly decreasing as the season goes on, especially from guys you want to see shooting (Hamilton, Aho, etc.) TOR1 is definitely in play for me (plus Rielly if I can afford him). CAR1 will see super low ownership if the previous numbers come back to haunt me.
PHI@BUF: With Lyon in net and Philly on the road, BUF1 is definitely in play tonight. Dahlin still holds sneaky value and is starting to produce a bit, though he has basically nil for peripherals so that’s not without risk. There are likely better options on defense, even Ristolainen if you’re going for a stack here. Skinner feels like a must play in cash games. Flyers have JVR back, which feels like it theoretically puts their entire top nine in play much like the Habs. There are just too many options to gamble with it, so I’d stick to a powerplay stack or PHI1, if I were you. They’ve been producing at a reasonable clip.
BOS@DET: This one would’ve been marked on the calendar a week ago and now I’m considering fading it. I don’t like how the lines have been juggled around, Marchand has been cold, Bergeron is injured… BOS1 is definitely in play, don’t get me wrong, but it’s not with as much confidence as it would’ve been. Rask could be a sneaky pick if you think his me day rejuveinated him enough: the Red Wings are throwing a lot at the net and the Bruins are on a 7 game winning streak here. That’s definitely not without risk, of course. Green has been in a nice point streak and offers some value if you’re looking for a contrarian option. Athanasiou is questionably overpriced on Draftkings but could be a good cash option solo on Fanduel.
FLA@TBL: With Domingue still in net, this game has potential to be 6-5. Both teams should be scoring at a good clip with potential for 3+ from anyone in the top six. It’s also possible we’ll get some wonky Cirelli or McCann hat trick out of this when all is said and done though. Either way, I’m targeting a ton of offense here tonight. Look toward Point and Hoffman for cash games. Ekblad has been hotter than Yandle and offers a lot of value in both formats. Hedman is a hell of a lot cheaper on Draftkings but his floor has been very, very low this season.
STL@NSH: It’s hard betting against the Preds at home anyway but this is a strong matchup for them against a depleted Blues squad, even without Subban and Arvidsson again tonight. I keep waiting for Ellis to heat up and will be fading him tonight, so expect him to rack up 1G2A to spite me. NSH2 is always a great value stack and gets better matchups at home. Craig Smith has been shooting a ton and NSH1 should be a moderately good option with upside tonight. I find it really hard to pay up for Johansen though since he rarely does more than get an assist here and there. Josi should be considered one of the better defenders tonight and his price tag is justified.
OTT@MIN: Gone are the days when you could score Dumba for like $4k and hope he gets a goal. He’s steadily rising this season and he’s on a nice point streak as well. Everything in me wants to fade the Sens tonight, but that’s really difficult. Chabot is basically a must play on Fanduel where he’s taking a month to go up a few hundred, especially in cash. The Wild like to give up a lot of perimeter shots, which could really benefit a guy like him that likes to shoot a ton. Could grab an assist from a tip or an outright goal tonight. Either of the Sens top lines should be in play, though obviously with risk. I’m crossing my fingers they reunite Koivu and Granlund tonight since I prefer that matchup, but the Wild top six are in play as well. I’m not sure this has as much potential as Florida/Tampa, but if they start to light the lamp earlier than later it could definitely heat up in general.
VGK@ARI: The Coyotes haven’t been able to score and Kuemper is starting to show some cracks, but I still don’t see a lot to like about this game until there’s a bit more consistency. Either side could make decent contrarian plays, I suppose, and VGK1 is significantly cheaper on DK if you’re going that route.
VAN@ANA: Kase is still insultingly cheap on Fanduel and is basically a must in cash for me. The Canucks are on a losing streak and have lost 4 of 5 vs the Ducks, scoring 1 or less in those losses. Gibson definitely has upside but it’s possible Horvat and Pettersson combine for five since that entire squad only seems to score in bunches when it’s least expected this season. Still, without Edler or Boeser, I’m liking Anaheim at home tonight, and Kase gives tons of value to the top line tonight. Montour is probably my top value play defensemen for tonight in either format.
WPG@CGY: If the Jets take too many penalties they are going to get burned hard tonight. The Flames were on fire in their last game. Too many puns, but you catch my drift. I’m not loving either matchup and it’s tempting to fade both here since I can’t play everything, but I feel like this would be a game that could come back and bite me later if I do. CGY1 or a powerplay stack would not come cheap, though WPG2 has been performing well and still offers value for a high performer.
COL@LAK: If there’s a bold fade tonight, it might be COL1, who could definitely be whatever is considered a chalky line tonight. There’s no reason to expect that MacKinnon/Rantanen don’t completely light up Petersen tonight except that a) they’re on the road and will get less favorable matchups and b) they actually haven’t been able to, historically. In fact, they’re the lowest scoring team on the slate as far as previous matchups are concerned. If we see last season Kopitar, he’s an absolute steal on Draftkings right now. Otherwise, this would be the second half of a late night hammer that I’m really concerned about. I have a feeling I’m going to bed thinking I’m up a grand and then waking up to find out I’m down $80 or something when these two late night games are over.
Next day edit: On such a large slate, I'm surprised there were so few lines worth owning. I had the Lightning and Pens with Rinne, Rittich and NYR2, but my defense didn't do much. In my other lineups I got cute and tried powerplay stacks and Point and Kessel went cold. Bruins and Isles were just throwing money away, which was definitely frustrating since I expected those to be the safer matchups. Fucking line shuffling :)
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NHL Slate Overview - 2/7/19 - 14 Games [!!!]

Slate Overview
Matchup | Back-to-Back | Points | Goals per Game Average, Expected Goals per Game, Shooting Percentage, Corsi for Percentage, Shots per Game Average | Goals Against per Game Average, Expected Goals Against per Game, Save Percentage, Corsi Against Percentage | Powerplay Percentage, Penalty Kill Percentage | Games Played Over Last 2 Seasons, Wins, Goals, Ceiling, Floor, Average | Vegas Odds | Win Percentage | Projection (WIP) | OveUnder Expectation
Special team stats have magically returned, though at this point in the season it’s worth looking into recent performance in these categories.
Note: I wrote this yesterday and thought I’d have time to update throughout the day. Then I got slammed with work and the city got hit with an icestorm, so my kid is also home with me today. Hopefully something here is helpful to you because it’s not being updated afterward!
The all-star break and bye weeks are over and we’re back into it. I’m sure at least a few of you have missed me around here! I’ve been a lot busier and stressed lately in general, so I’m not sure how much longer I’ll be able to continue. I’m happy to see a few people posting in my absence at least. Most of last month was an extremely frustrating streak of multiple lineups a point or two below the cash line for me. Not even really bad decisions so much as bad luck really. Hopefully I have a good run for the rest of the season.
This used to be the time of year where you would have a clear idea of who was going to make the playoffs and could make a killing just betting on the dominant teams to destroy the lowliers fighting for the best draft pick. No longer. Not really, anyway. Apart the few that have broken away from the pack, those outside the playoff picture are battling hard to get into it and those hanging onto wildcards will be trying to tighten up and stay there. With only four points being the difference maker for almost half the league right now, there’s a lot of intense hockey to be played yet, not to mention what shake-ups will come later this month headed toward the trade deadline. Outside the Kings and Devils sans Hall, and probably whatever the hell happened to the Ducks, even the Sens, Red Wings and especially teams like the Panthers, Hawks and Oilers, continue to be at least DFS-relevant despite sitting at the bottom of the standings. There’s so much talent and the pace is faster than ever.
We have a massive 14 game slate with enough potential offense that you’re really going to have to hit the nail square on the head for a solid win tonight. My usual strategy for a slate this large is to either pick one line I think will do well and stack them in multiple lineups with whatever logically fits, or else narrow it down to five or six lines I like and stack every possible combination. I’ll likely go with the latter tonight, as there’s no clear standout here for me. Enough of my rambling, let’s get on with it. I’m not really sure what contests you’re looking at tonight, but Fanduel is just getting straight up greedy. The $1.11 Draftkings contest with a $1k prize could be interesting if you’re new to MME, maybe?
CAR@BUF: The Sabres decided to hit the blender in their last game, so I’d be leery of picking anything on their side in fear they’ll just be split up again. And why bother, really? The Hurricanes continue to top the charts for possession metrics and had a dominant shutout win vs the Penguins in their last game with McElhinney returning, who has just been so good for them. They’ve also won seven straight against the Sabres. If there’s any reason to look Buffalo’s way, it’s that Carolina is also leading the league in shots and goes through bouts where they have difficulty scoring, so the Sabres options could make a high-risk but intriguing netminder if you have both a massive bankroll and set of testicles you’d like to throw around.
PIT@FLA: The Panthers have been an extremely frustrating team for me this year. I know management still thinks they’re in the playoff picture with the trade rumors that are being tossed around, they’re not exactly stacked with talent but there’s no question they have a roster capable of lighting the lamp a handful of times every night. Yet, they’ve barely been averaging a goal a game in their last five and are sitting near the bottom of the league far out of the actual playoff picture. That’s totally dropped the salaries of FLA1 to be stackable with almost anything, which keeps bringing me back to them every night, and the Pens have been middling about waiting for a healthy core and some jump to their step again. Maybe there’s even a narrative play here, considering the Brassard/Bjugstad/McCann/Sheahan trade that recently took place. Those aren’t exactly flashy names I’d like to plug into my roster though. It’s worth noting the Penguins are 6-1 in their last seven meetings and have scored four (or more!) here for the last three years and counting. What do I take away from all this? Neither of the top two lines have had trouble scoring against each other, and FLA1 in particular brings value to the table. I think there’s an argument to be made for either side, if not a game stack, really, but I’d lean harder on the Pens.
NYI@NJD: Even though they’ve cooled off considerably lately, Trotz still has to be a contender for coach of the year for turning an Islanders team that was something like deadlast in the league last season into a defensively strong playoff contender, despite losing Tavares in the offseason. The Devils are still managing to win a few games here and there, but my god are their underlying numbers awful and they’ve already confirmed they’ll be sellers this year by trading Boyle. The Isles have won three straight here and I expect they’ll get the win tonight, but whether they face enough shots and manage a pristine GAA to warrant a goaltender pick, I’m not so certain. Likewise, though they’ve had a decent floor of three goals in their last four meetings, they haven’t been scoring lately. Is it possible NYI1 or NYI2 get 3+ concentrated tonight? Sure, but they don’t really have enough value to warrant a must-play stack, even though the Devils are bad. I’d likely lean toward the top line of the two, if I were to take either. NJD1 gets full powerplay correlation if you’re looking for an ultra-contrarian play, but that’s a poor reason to consider it an option really.
LAK@PHI: Hart seems like a lock for cash tonight, with the Flyers on an epic winning streak while playing at home. I expect he’ll see decent ownership, anyway. They’ve been allowing a lot of shots against, which gives him reasonable upside as well. The Flyers top six are still relatively affordable if that interests you, and appear to be snakebitten with an overall sub-average shooting percentage lately, so they’re due for some positive regression. Kopitar quietly has nine points in his last five games, but, like, why bother? A Kings stack seems even more contrarian than a Devils one tonight.
COL@WSH: Despite riding a four game losing streak, the Avs have had an elite Corsi-for percentage over their last four games, while the Caps have been giving up a lot of high danger scoring chances. It’s not the best matchup on the road, but on a slate this large COL1 should see lower ownership than usual. It’s just a matter of whether you see playoff-performance-Vezina-caliber Holtby or I-forgot-to-do-my-eye-exercises-and-I’m-constantly-screened-by-my-teammates Holtby playing tonight. The Caps have won seven of the last eight meetings though, and with a solid floor of 3+ goals in six of their last seven, so the same argument applies to the other end, I suppose. Considering the salaries of either side’s top lines you’re really going to need them to go off in unison to make it worth it, but it’s not without possibility.
WPG@MTL: I don’t know if the nets are smaller in Finland, but Kotkaniemi still has more posts to his name than goals so far this year. His shots are finally starting to see dividends though, but he doesn’t offer much in peripherals. Armia also gets a chance to play against his former team tonight and is priced at floor on Fanduel while also getting top powerplay and penalty killing duties. You could do worse for a punt if you like narrative+peripherals+assist potential, anyway, or even a mini-stack if you’re looking at any 4-forward powerplays tonight or something. Underlying metrics point toward the Habs being the better team lately and they pass the eye test as a fan, but unquestionably the Jets top line could come in and stomp them, especially if there’s undisciplined play, since the PK has been terrible and the Jets possess a great powerplay. Montreal might be one of the only contrarian plays I can see actually panning out tonight, but that’s obvious homer bias showing and it’s always difficult to determine where the goals are coming from too.
ANA@OTT(b): The Sens are traveling after the Leafs game and are the only team on a back-to-back tonight. I… I mean, a team is breaking a losing streak here: that’s noteworthy, I guess? Either goaltender is potentially in play simply because I’m not sure either team is capable of scoring a goal right now. There’s basically no goals here historically either and both these teams have simply been awful. The Sens have been slightly less awful, for what it’s worth. Best of luck to you if you’re targeting this game, my friend. You’re on your own really.
VGK@DET: The Golden Knights have lost four of their last five games and the Red Wings are on a winning streak. I’m not sure what to make of this sorcery other than Detroit has been lucky capitalizing on their high danger chances and Vegas has had a rough schedule, though they did manage to beat the league-leading Lightning on the road their last game. Take note that Zykov is the new Pirri (for now). I expect to see a lot of him in cash lineups tonight. VGK2 remains the line for me here, consistently putting up points and with full powerplay correlation. (Remarkably reasonable salary, considering how long they’ve been doing it as well.)
STL@TBL: This should be a great matchup. The Blues have been playing to their potential lately and Binnington has been solid in relief of Allen’s mediocrity. Of course there’s reason to have the Lightning in play any night, but anything of value on either side comes at a very high cost and I’m crossing my fingers and toes this one doesn’t get out of hand. Simply a virtue of being on the best team in the league and because he’s playing at home, I’d entertain Vasilevskiy in net tonight if you’re looking for a lower ownership pivot. I’m definitely not talking you off anything here if it interests you though.
DAL@NSH: This matchup doesn’t really scream goals to me at a glance, though both teams have been playing very well of late. Turris is back and NSH2 is basically guaranteed to be low ownership while offering high value tonight for your big salary stacks. They only go off a handful of games a year, but will get the favorable faceoffs on home ice. For the Stars, it seems they’ve actually found a top six that’s working for them at the moment that doesn’t involve loading up the top line. I’m a tiny bit intrigued with both sides here, though I wouldn’t be surprised if it was a total bust fantasy-wise either.
EDM@MIN: The Oilers destroyed the Wild in their last matchup and basically every goal ever scored by the Oilers is coming from one of two players, so I am looking at McDavid and Draisaitl here, even if they’re not playing on the same line tonight. Yes, the Oilers are on a losing streak and are basically ruined as a franchise because of terrible asset management and contracts and… well, those two players are always fantasy relevant regardless. The team is due for a smidgen of positive regression, at least in terms of converting scoring chances. Like, maybe right now they’re like Dyson-level sucking but could drop to a Hoover or so. The top six from Minnesota on home ice looks like great value if either line can net two correlated goals here, though they usually just make me angry while I’m throwing money into the toilet.
VAN@CHI: The Vancouver Canucks are in the playoff picture. Who saw that coming this year? I can’t wait to see what this team can do when Hughes is called up and Pettersson can grow facial hair. The Hawks have dropped five straight to the Canucks and allowed 4+ in those losses. I’m not sure how much weight I want to put on that considering the huge roster changes, that those goals came from all over the place, that Edler’s out, that the Canucks are on the road, etc. but I think there’s a good chance for goals on either side here, if you can figure out where they’re coming from. The top line from the Hawks has been insanely productive lately and Caggiula at least offers a bit of salary relief while Kane’s price tag skyrockets toward five figures.
SJS@CGY: This matchup scares me the most tonight, with both sides capable of causing some serious damage and neither particularly strong defensively. There’s no reasonable possibility of doing a gamestack here, but I can’t bring myself to avoid both sides of this if I’m going to make any effort tonight. This only gets more challenging if Karlsson returns. There are very few possibilities to get a full stack with Giordano or Burns involved, but I’ve already mentioned a couple and you’ll see me at the top if they go off.
CBJ@ARI: I feel so bad for the Coyotes, they just cannot catch a break. Maybe next year is their year but for now it’s not looking good. Neither team have been great lately, but the Blue Jackets have won four of five here historically, for whatever that’s worth to you. If I really need some value, ARI1 is in a decent position and the least expensive top line in the NHL. It’s not really anything to get excited about, but the option is there and it will take little to pay themselves off. I’d be more interested in Columbus if Panarin is moved back to the top line, especially since Dubois has been possessed lately.
This is all likely too much to digest, so I’ll just reprise my original thoughts: there’s enough value tonight to pay up for the big lines from Colorado, Washington, Pittsburgh, Tampa, San Jose, Calgary, Winnipeg, Chicago, etc. and enough possibility for two moderately priced lines from, say, Montreal and Florida, to go off. Pick a strategy and run with it or you’ll go crazy on a slate this large. Best of luck! There’s a twelve game slate next Tuesday and an eleven game slate next Thursday. I’ll try to find the time to keep these coming but I make no guarantees.
General NHL DFS Primer
Trouble making your stacks work and hate using an optimizer? Try my custom Fanduel and Draftkings Line Stacker instead.
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NHL Slate Overview - December 22, 2018 (Early [6] and Main [8])

Slate Overview
Matchup | Back-to-Back | Points (Halved) | Goals per Game Average, Expected Goals per Game, Shooting Percentage, Corsi for Percentage, Shots per Game Average | Goals Against per Game Average, Expected Goals Against per Game, Save Percentage, Corsi Against Percentage | Powerplay Percentage, Penalty Kill Percentage | Games Played Over Last 2 Seasons, Wins, Goals, Ceiling, Floor, Average | Vegas Odds | Win Percentage | Projection (WIP) | OveUnder Expectation
Explanation of These Stats and General NHL DFS Primer
I went a little too heavy on the Sens side of things from my recommendation yesterday, but Holtby got the win and the Devils and Sens game was the best to target while fading the other two, so I made some money overall. Definitely regretting a last minute decision to swap Butcher and Hall for Gustafsson and Kane though. I think I just really hate Butcher, if I’m being honest.
There’s a lot of hockey today but it’s a manageable 8 game slate for the evening games. I’m never high on the all day or early slates because the payout is always terrible. We’ve got a $500 top prize for the early breakaway ($4) on Fanduel and there’s an Early Eight ($8) on Draftkings that pays out $1k if you like any of these matchups. For the evening, the standard Fanduel breakaway ($4.44) with $5k to first is pretty much the only thing worth looking at. On Draftkings, the $4 Forecheck (capped at 20 entries) with a $2k top prize is probably where I’m looking. The Knuckle Puck has minimal entries with only a $400 top prize tonight, unfortunately.
Early
NSH@BOS: The Preds have won the last two, but I have to give the edge to the Bruins at home on this one. Nashville was winning games despite the injuries but it looks like it’s starting to creep up on them. Plus, Bergeron might return. There’s no reason to pick on Boston at home here and even if you did like the Preds, there’s simply no way of knowing where the goals are coming from right now.
CBJ@PHI: The Blue Jackets have won three straight here, though they’ve also given up three goals in each of those contests. I’m liking that Hart has stabilized the net more than anything, though it’s hard to say if it’s the coaching change that’s benefited the Flyers or him since they happened in conjunction. For whatever reason, the Blue Jackets seem unable to capitalize on their scoring chances lately. I still like PHI2 on Draftkings, though that’s mostly because they all have powerplay correlation and they’re a reasonably priced stack than any data pointing toward them being a good bet this afternoon that I’ve seen. On Columbus, Atkinson had a hat trick and a two goal game last season, CBJ1 is pretty much the only line I like to look at anyway, with or without Jones on that one.
FLA@DET: They’ve been rotating wins for the last five. If that holds up, it’s Florida’s turn to win. (That’s a terrible betting strategy, however.) There are no repeat occurrences in the historical data. FLA1 always has potential to go off, but FLA2 could offer some salary relief if you wanted to pay up for CBJ1, SJS1 or CGY1. Outside of Larkin/Nyquist there’s hardly anything ever worth playing on Detroit’s side. Cholowski could make a decent three man stack out of them, though I always consider Vanek at his price tag as a punt play even if it’s a gamble.
MTL@VGK: The last time they played, Pacioretty had 10 shots on goal. He’s unavailable tonight, unfortunately. Historically (if you can call it that, they’ve only played three times in history) it’s been mostly depth scoring here outside VGK1. The Habs keep juggling their lines, so I’d probably focus on VGK1, if anything here. There’s always a chance one of the defensemen on Vegas’ side goes off as well. One of Schmidt, Theodore or Hunt, if any.
LAK@SJS: The Sharks have won four straight and five of six, they’re at home versus a banged up (and otherwise mostly terrible) Kings team. This seems to be as chalky as DAL1 on Thursday but should see higher ownership. The goals have been from pretty much everywhere and I don’t usually like Jones in net, but he seems like a decent play today. Kane is shooting again, which makes it even harder to pick a line here, if you were to. It might even be worth considering SJS3 as a value stack to pay up for CGY1. They’ll see easier opposition, and Thornton could easily pick up a couple assists if things fall into place. The downside here is that line is playing around 13 minutes a night, however.
STL@CGY: The Flames have torched Allen twice with 7 goals in their last four games, though it’s worth noting Perron did have a hat trick here as well. Not a lot to like in terms of depth scoring, but there should definitely be goals here in general. I’m sure there will be a lot of ownership of Calgary as well, though you might want to drop Lindholm for Tkachuk, who has been the better player and they have comparable salaries. If you can squeeze in Giordano as well, all the power to you.
Primary stacks: CGY1 or CGY powerplay, SJS1, VGK1, CBJ1, BOS1
Secondary stacks: STL2, PHI2, FLA2, SJS3
GPP goalie: Jones, Halak
Cash goalie (do people even play afternoon cash games? Is that a thing? I suppose it must be): Jones, I guess?
Main
COL(b)@ARI: If COL1 is cold then you only have to worry about, like, every other team in the NHL having a chalk line go off tonight. We’ve got the Caps, the Pens, the Lightning, the Leafs, the Jets, the Oilers… I think your best play tonight is to find a value stack you’re in love with and pair it with all the big guns and hope for them to go off. (Or, you know, take a break, drink some egg nog, eat some fruitcake, etc.) There really aren’t that many value stacks to aim for though, so, like… this could get ugly. Colorado has scored five (or more!) in three of their last four versus the Coyotes and, even on a back to back on the road, should obviously be considered tonight. Especially after looking to redeem themselves after only scoring one against Collin Delia. Update Grubauer has to play back-to-back on the road.
ANA@BUF(b): The Sabres have averaged three goals in their last three games against the Ducks, but those goals are sorta from everywhere and I don’t like to pick on Gibson generaly. BUF1 seems to always get a decent amount of ownership regardless, so don’t let me convince you otherwise if you’re high on them. I’m not really on this game tonight, though I’ll always consider Kase as a one off while his salary is cheap (on Fanduel), though the Ducks powerplay has been awful lately, so likely not with Montour like I would’ve played a few weeks back. He is still cheap on Fanduel as well, however.
NYR@TOR: The Leafs have won three in a row but outside the last game (which was a shutout) it hasn’t been very pretty. I expect Tavares/MarneMatthews/Kadri/Rielly will see some high ownership tonight based on the matchup and their previous performance, and there are enough value plays throughout to make it work too. I wouldn’t put much stock in anyone on the Rangers specifically, though Hayes has been quietly showcasing himself for whichever team he’s going to end up on at the trade deadline for some time now. He has 10 points in his last five games but his linemates offer no powerplay correlation, nor does his salary really offer much value as a stand alone player. If you’re in a fantasy league and have Hayes, all the power to you. For DFS, I’m leaving him on the bench. Update: If Georgiev starts (he's considered likely right now), I don't see how this gets any better for the Leafs tonight.
WSH(b)@OTT(b): The Caps have won eight of the last nine meetings and both teams are on a back-to-back. This game is definitely interesting to target. Outside Stone, Duchene and/or Chabot (mostly on Fanduel), I wouldn’t grab anything from the Sens if I was looking at anything at all, but the top six for the Caps are in play (mostly WSH2 on Fanduel though, where they’re significantly cheaper). With or without Carlson, who hasn’t been producing much lately but obviously could any given night. Unsurprisingly, Ovechkin has scored a hat trick here.
PIT@CAR: The Pens have outscored the Canes 9-2 in their last two meetings, though that’s always skewed by how terrible the Canes goaltending has been. I do like that Carolina should fire a lot of shots in a valiant effort to lose this one, so I’ll be looking at DeSmith Murray (maybe) tonight. I’ll probably even consider a Pens powerplay stack, though it’s always hard to pay up for the whole unit and it’s always the one player I leave off that burns me. Rust has been killing it since being promoted to the top line again, though I expect him to cool off and rotate with Simon or Hornqvist or whomever else they decide, soon enough. Svechnikov remains in play for value, since he seems to be producing regardless of his linemates and his salary has remained reasonable. It’s not an ideal matchup for him tonight but he only needs one to pay himself off.
DAL@MIN: Honestly, my money is on Dubnyk tonight mostly because fuck Dallas. But Parise has a long history of points here, so I’ll also be looking at MIN2 a bit as well. Especially now that Koivu is centering him again. Losing Dumba really hurts here though.
WPG@VAN: The Jets have won 7 straight and 9 of 10 vs the Canucks, which should at least put Hellebuyck Brossoit in play for cash games and pretty much all the Jets in play in general. Laine has had a hat trick here, but I don’t know if you need to put weight on that because it’s Laine and he just does that sometimes. It’s not that the Canucks couldn’t score tonight, it just seems unlikely to me. They have produced better at home and could slow down the game a bit, so it feels a little riskier than I want it to, but... ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
TBL@EDM: Tampa has won three of the last four meetings and, well, they’re Tampa, they have a quality chance of beating anybody any given night. Although it makes it harder to determine where the goals are coming from, it is really kind of Jon Cooper to split up his lines like this for salary relief. Edmonton’s win did come at home, where McDavid put up a five point night with four goals. Nurse remains a good value play on Fanduel, not so much on Draftkings. Update: Looks like the Oilers are hitting the blender again. We'll see what shakes out soon.
Primary stacks: TBL1/2, EDM1, WPG1/2, PIT1/2, WSH1, TOR in general, COL1
Secondary stacks: TBL3, MIN2, NYR2, ARI2 (maybe)
Top GPP goalie: Hellebuyck Brossoit (though moreso on Fanduel where he's cheaper), DeSmith, Murray, Andersen
Top cash goalie: Hellebuyck Brossoit? I'm just not so sure about this one now.
Contests: Draftkings Forecheck ($4 with $2k to first, 20 max) or Fanduel Breakaway ($4.44 with $5k to 1st)
Trouble making your stacks work and hate using an optimizer? Try my custom Fanduel and Draftkings Line Stacker instead.
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can you bet on draftkings in florida video

You can bet using the Draftkings sportsbook app from Illinois, however, there are other fine sports betting websites serving the state where one can register directly online. Draftkings is not licensed in Florida to take bets. A number of other websites licensed outside the state do take bets from Florida residents however. Election Betting Available DraftKings is not one of the legal sports betting options in Florida. In fact, until legislators address the concerns of the state’s tribal casino industry, there are no legal sports betting options written into Florida law for anyone inside the state’s borders. By Steve Beauregard. First off, yes, playing daily fantasy sports online on sites like DraftKings is legal in all but ten of the 50 states (more on that below). There is no federal law that prohibits American citizens from playing on DraftKings, or FanDuel, or one of the many other daily fantasy sports sites. Key word: “federal law.”. You can make bets with DraftKings, FanDuel and BetRivers online sportsbooks. Iowa. Iowa legalized online sports betting in August 2019. Like Illinois, you must make your bets in a licensed casino You can only make a bet in a state where DraftKings is licensed for regulated online sports betting. Check out our overview of where sports betting is legal. If you live in a state where online sports betting is not permitted, you can sign up via this link to receive updates on the status of legislation and ways you can help bring sports betting to your state. Get a risk free bet up to $1,000 when you sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook. Somehow, can I use DraftKings in Illinois? Illinois became the 15th state to legalize sports betting on J. Anyone who is at least 21 years of age, has a valid United States Social Security Number and is physically within the state of Illinois can bet with DraftKings Sportsbook there. Boston Red Sox fans can get their team at +3500 right now. In the NFL, the New York Jets will always be the “Same Old Jets” until they win a championship for the first time since 1969, but they do have a heck of a quarterback in Sam Darnold, and you can bet on the over/under on his passing touchdowns at 23.5. DraftKings Sportsbook: When Can You Bet In Your State? by Jason Ziernicki | Dec 10, 2018 | Legal Sports Betting | 0 comments. DRAFTKINGS SPORTSBOOK. DraftKings Sportsbook App is the most popular in the country! New users get a $1,000 bonus! GET THE APP! FREE BET PROMO $1,000 FREE BONUS PLAY NOW. With a monopoly like presence in the daily fantasy sports industry, DraftKings Sportsbook and Retail sports betting is live in the state. Legislature considered but did not pass a mobilesports betting bill in 2019. You can place a bet in person at DraftKings at Scarlet Pearl Sportsbook at 9380 Central Ave, D’Iberville, MS 39540.

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